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BEST race on the Sunday card is the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse (4.30).
This has an intriguing look to it, while the feature race in Britain on the face of it contains the most generous initial handicap mark seen all season.
In the Powers Gold Cup the key is the frankly ropey jumping of most of the six runners. There is little to choose on form between Mikael d’Haguenet, Oscars Well and Mount Benbulben and any of the trio is good enough to win this but none is a safe conveyance, each one liable to make at least one serious mistake.
Dedigout turned in a better round of jumping when winning at Naas last time but his earlier efforts lacked conviction and he was rather disappointing prior to that confidence booster.
Likely pacemaker Realt Mor has failed to get round twice from six starts over fences and jumped indifferently even when getting off the mark by a wide margin in maiden company earlier in the month.
That leaves Buckers Bridge, the least exposed in the field after just three runs in chases, following a point and two bumper wins. The second of those bumper wins, in a strong race on very testing ground at the Punchestown Festival last spring, suggested Buckers Bridge had the potential to go to the top over jumps.
He has won two his three races over fences, showing smart form, and while he’s had to knuckle down to gain both successes, a willing attitude is no bad thing. At Navan last time, Buckers Bridge crucially looked a very solid jumper, while he was winning there despite a steady pace at two miles. A truer gallop back over further should be right up his street.
The Sussex Champion Hurdle at Plumpton (4.0) has attracted a deservedly useful field but an otherwise competitive handicap looks to have a blot in it in the shape of Court Minstrel. Smart in bumpers, Court Minstrel looked a good prospect when winning at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut before finishing an eye-catching third behind Dodging Bullets in a Grade 2 novice at the Open meeting there.
He didn’t run to his best on very testing ground in the Tolworth at Sandown on his most recent start but again shaped well. The run behind Dodging Bullets is worth, on a conservative reading of the bare form, a BHA mark somewhere in the low 140s.
He’s plainly better than that and yet the BHA handicapper has given him a mark of just 131. Court Minstrel missed the Betfair Hurdle due to the ground and missed the cut in the County Hurdle by one. Today is his day.
Recommendations:
Back Buckers Bridge @ 10.0 in the 16.30 at Fairyhouse
Back Court Minstrel @ 2.84 in the 16.00 at Plumpton
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Back Court Minstrel @ 2.84 in the 16.00 at Plumpton
go ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon
GET IN !!
Milesey
Milesey, where did the one I was given finish?
Mr F, your not in the top 4, it made the running then dropped right out.
Milesey
Milesey, no worries. I’ll not listen to him next time.
Milesey, good luck with the golf and tennis. Going out for a bit and back to see how the likes of Lyon and Atletico get on.
Back Buckers Bridge @ 10.0 in the 16.30 at Fairyhouse
** 6TH **
Milesey
COURT MINSTREL @ 5.06 BETFAIR SP !
What a ride ;) ;)
Milesey
just seen scores come up for the shell houston open and checked your selections for it milesey, ben crane tied 2nd at 175/1 did you back him e/w or just to win??
win and place
BEN CRANE
PHIL MICKELSON
and
GRAHAM DELAET
all 3 in with a chance.
Milesey
hopefully crane gets it for you, that’d be some return:)
Anything for Irish National Lads?
On the racing tips March 31st Thread, sure MR F will put it up later.
Milesey
Shell Houston Open
LEADER -11
T3 Ben Crane @ 176.0 -10
=============================
Phil Mickelson @ 18.5 -8
Chris Kirk @ 41.0 -7
Graham DeLaet @ 120.0 -6
Here comes the charge by BIG PHIL, 2 holes, 2 birdies, he is finding some form at the right time as the US MASTERS is just around the corner.
Milesey
3 HOLES 3 BIRDIES ?
Really ……… BIG PHIL where have you been all week, playing like a man possessed ! ;)
Milesey
WOW, i’ve just fallen out my chair, 4 holes, 4 birdies, BIG PHIL on -10, WOW, WOW, at this rate is going to tear this field apart ! BIG PHIL is well and trully in the mix now, Chris KIRK on -8 is coming along too for the ride, Ben CRANE yet to tee off !
Milesey
Trophee Hassan II
After 4th round update.
WINNER Marcel Siem -17
my picks
T11 EMILIANO GRILLO -5
T28 GRAEME STORM -2
T32 MICHAEL HOEY -1
T38 JOHN PARRY +1
Milesey
EAGLE, BEN CRANE -13, 1 shot off the leader now.
Milesey
BEN CRANE -14 joint leader 8 holes to play…… can this 175-1 shot do it…… i for one am chearing him all the way!! come on BEN !
Milesey
???? ben crane ?????
Play suspended, he is 3 shots off the lead.
http://scores.espn.go.com/golf/leaderboard?tour=pga
Milesey
Fourth round at the Shell Houston Open in Texas, play at Redstone was suspended due to thunderstorms and heavy rain.
American D.A. Points leads a tightly-packed field as play was stopped due to the weather, sitting one shot ahead of the rest of the field on sixteen-under-par with four holes left to play.
While never really in contention to challenge the overnight leaders Stewart Cink and Bill Haas, McIlroy parred the opening seven holes before making successive birdies at the eighth and ninth to go four-under at the turn.
The Northern Irishman then bogeyed the first two holes on his return to the clubhouse before finishing with two birdies to card a 70 and end the tournament four-under-par.
Victory at Redstone would have seen McIlroy return to the top of the world rankings ahead of Tiger Woods, but the 23-year-old struggled to build on the momentum gained in the early stages of his final round.
The world No. 2 found the water twice in two holes on the start of his back nine, ruining any chances of significantly climbing up the leaderboard.
Despite finding the bunker on the tenth, McIlroy got up and down to save par, but it was on the next two holes that would scupper any hopes of a miracle revival.
Having parred the eleventh in his first three rounds, McIlroy found the water for bogey before repeating the feat with his tee-shot on the 12th to drop back to two-under.
McIlroy again lacked consistency with his driver, with which he has struggled all week, finding the fairway bunker twice in successive tee-shots on the 13th and 14th before going out-of-bounds at the par-five 15th. However, McIlroy managed to save par on all three before ending his final round strongly with two birdies in the last two holes, holing a 24-foot putt on the last to card a 70.
Lee Westwood endured a solid start to his final round, parring the first three holes before making a birdie with a six-footer on the par-five fourth. However, the Englishman could not build on the early promise, missing several opportunities to make birdie over the turn before the weather cut short his round approaching the final hole.
Fellow Brit Brian Davies carded an impressive 67 to finish thirteen-under overall. Davies started by holing a 15-footer for birdie on the second, eventually notching five more birdies before a solitary bogey on the 17th left him too far behind to challenge for victory.Phil Mickelson flew out of the blocks with four birdies in his first four holes, showing plenty of promise ahead of The Masters on April 11.
However, a double-bogey on the par-three 14th cancelled out two further birdies on the back nine to leave the three-time Masters champion on ten-under-par, carding a final round of 68.
Dustin Johnson made six birdies in his opening ten holes to move outright leader at thirteen-under, but a dropped shot at the 12th and then the 14th meant the seven-time PGA Tour winner finished two shots behind on fourteen-under-par.
Henrik Stenson finished with an impressive 66 to sit one shot behind leader Points on fifteen-under to remain clubhouse leader, while Billy Horschel was left tied with the Swede for second when the weather stoppage cut short his round before the final hole.
Jason Kokrak is still in contention for the lead after moving to fourteen-under before the weather interruption, whilst Round Three overnight leader Stuart Cink was left three shots off Points’ lead with five holes left to play.
The T20 extravangaza that is the Indian Premier League is back next week.
Outright Winner
Last year’s beaten finalists the Chennai Super Kings are favourites to lift the IPL trophy this season at 5.5 and having claimed the title in 2011 and 2010, MS Dhoni’s men are looking strong once again. Chennai have a powerful overseas contingent but crucially, they contain the best in local Indian talent with Dhoni heading a squad that contains Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Murali Vijay and the IPL’s all-time leading run scorer Suresh Raina.
Chennai are obvious favourites but the outstanding outside pick here are the Pune Warriors. They failed to make the playoffs in 2012 but since then, key players in the squad have enjoyed a prolific 12 months with either bat or ball.
England’s Luke Wright was welcomed back by the national selectors to make his country’s highest score in an international T20 while Marlon Samuels has finally matured to produce the talent to back up his immense potential.
Elsewhere, Tamim Iqbal, Yuvraj Singh and new signing Ross Taylor will bolster the batting while Sri Lanka’s mystery spinner Ajantha Mendis is rediscovering his best form just at the right time. The bowling attack will be headed by Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Ashok Dinda who have both made significant international breakthroughs in the last twelve months.
Pune have been hit by the news that Michael Clarke is likely to miss the tournament through injury but there is enough batting talent in this squad to cover for the loss of the Aussie skipper. The Warriors are out at a generous 12.0 outright win market and are a sound option at 3.05 for a top four finish.
Recommended Bet: Back the Pune Warriors at 12.0
Top Batsman
Chris Gayle of Royal Challengers Bangalore is a clear favourite for the top run scorer bet at 4.3 and after he topped the IPL run charts in 2012 and 2011, it will be hard to see past the powerful Jamaican in this market. However, the left hander has been uncharacteristically inconsistent over the last 12 months.
There have been low points – at the end of 2012, Gayle made just 72 from five ODI innings against a weak Bangladesh attack – but there have been incredible highs as well. In February this year, he made a memorable 114 from just 51 balls for Dhaka in the BPL to underline his potential for a third successive win in this IPL market.
However, a strong outside bet is Gayle’s Royal Challengers team mate Cheteshwar Pujara. The 25-year-old is primarily known as a patient and prolific run scorer who has yet to win a full limited overs cap but Pujara proved in the final innings of the fourth test against Australia that he can score quickly.
As India chased down a potentially testing target of 155 to win, Pujara made an undefeated 82 from 91 balls in a game with no fielding restrictions. He’s similar to other players such as Hashim Amla and Alastair Cook in that he can score heavily in all forms of the game and at odds of 26.0 he looks a superb option for this bet.
Recommended Bet: Back Cheteshwar Pujara at 26.0
Top Bowler
Sri Lanka’s Lasith Malinga is the favourite at 2.42 in 2013’s top bowler market after finishing third in the table last season with 22 victims from 14 matches. ‘The Slinger’ is the all-time leading wicket taker in IPL cricket with 83 and as recently as December 2012, he took the incredible T20 figures of 6/7 for Melbourne Stars in Australia’s Big Bash.
Malinga is a natural favourite but it’s a little surprising to see Sunil Narine out at 3.6 in this market after the Kolkata Knight Riders’ star man finished ahead of Malinga in second place last season. Like all ‘mystery spinners’ Narine has been through a difficult period where wickets haven’t fallen as frequently as they have done in the past.
2012 saw the 24-year-old make his entry into Test cricket but modest returns and the emergence of Shane Shillingford suggests that he is some way away from a return into the five-day game.
However, in IPL cricket, teams will have to get after Narine – meaning more false shots – and he is destined to bowl the important overs at the start and death of an innings when wickets tumble more frequently. At those odds of 3.6 he could be the bargain bet of this whole tournament.
Recommended Bet: Back Sunil Narine at 3.6
Back the favourites outright
The thrills, spills and turnarounds associated with the T20 might give the impression that cricket’s shortest format is something of a lottery. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The formbook has stood up remarkably well in this league, with the usual suspects tending to reach the final-four play-offs every year. Chennai have never missed the play-offs, winning the title twice and losing two finals. Mumbai have reached the last three play-offs. Bangalore three of the last four.
In footballing terms, Chennai are the IPL’s Manchester United. Their star-studded batting line-up goes so deep that low first innings totals are extremely rare, while even the unlikeliest run-chases become possible when your middle-order consists of Raina, Dhoni and Dwayne Bravo, with several more capable hitters further down. Their consistency makes a play-off spot a virtual certainty, at which stage the current 5.5 will offer the chance to bank a considerable profit if desired.
Equally there’s plenty to like about defending champions Kolkata at 7.0 in anticipation of a third consecutive play-off appearance. Led by a classy, well-balanced top-three of Gambhir, McCullum and Kallis, Kolkata’s impressive squad includes Sunil Narine, who could be the star bowler of the tournament.
Recommended Bets
Back Chennai Super Kings @ 5.5
Back Kolkata Knight Riders @ 7.0
Back openers in the Top Run Scorer market
Due to a plethora of world-class names, this looks like a wide-open betting heat, but once again history suggests the appearance is deceptive. The top batsman in all five previous IPLs was an opener and in the last four cases, an easy one to identify. Chris Gayle has won the last two, preceded by Sachin Tendulkar and Matthew Hayden. This is no coincidence – in 20 over matches, openers are bound to get more and longer innings. If their side chases down a low target easily, they may be the only batsmen to get a meaningful innings.
Gayle is a skinny 5.0 to complete the hat-trick, but if you’re happy to take the big man on, the next shortest price is 17.0. I like the chances of the players who finished second, third and fourth last year, all of whom are openers. That was the second time Gautam Gambhir has been second in this market and is around 21.0 to go one better. Like Gayle, he captains his side and will therefore play as often as possible. Last year’s third Shikhar Darwan carried his side through a terrible run and is a live candidate again at a big price, as is Rajasthan Royals opener Ajinkya Rahane.
Recommended Bets
Back Gautam Gambhir @ 21.0
Back Shikhar Darwan @ 36.0
Back Ajinkya Rahane @ 40.0
In-play tactics
Back to lay extreme outcomes, especially in the innings runs markets
There are of course many great turnarounds in IPL, which make it tempting to employ the simplisitic trading maxim to ‘Back High, Lay Low’. There’s little sense, however, in blindly backing that turnaround without measuring the likelihood based on the specific circumstances. When betting in-running, the best advice is simply to follow conditions closely to gauge what constitutes a par total. Whether the pitch, overhead conditions and ground stats are liable to produce much higher or lower than par. The predictions of pundits and captains are not wholly reliable, but they’re generally a good guide.
Rather than the match odds market, the best place to find massive price upsets is the Innings Runs market. Here, there is an option for each band of ten (i.e. 120 or more, 130 or more etc). Very short odds-on chances, even going down to the minimum 1.01, have repeatedly been turned over in this market as a result of batting collapses or an explosive spell of big-hitting.
In order to maximise the potential of this volatile market, my advice is to take a view, either before or early during in the innings, on whether the total is likely to be above or below the par score. Once making that decision, back the bands 20 or 30 above or below par in your chosen direction. Pick the right way and you’ll have an excellent trading position.
Back short totals at big odds in the 6 Over Total market
The 6 Over Total market is another volatile affair, although here I’m inclined to stick with ‘unders’ when conditions suit. Whereas there is a realistic limit to the upside during the early slog, there are always a few very low totals when batting teams completely fail to master early conditions against strike bowlers. Lose a couple of wickets in the first three overs, and most teams will opt to consolidate before rebuilding during the middle overs. It is certainly not unheard of for a team to score below 20 during this opening period. Obviously, as with all in-running markets, keep an eye on overhead conditions and captains’ comments at the toss regarding whether the wicket is expected to be lively first up.