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IT'S a typically difficult card on day one of the Chester May meeting so the honest advice is to keep stakes low. But there are three possible value plays, headed by Theology in the feature race at 2.45.
Now at first viewing this horse doesn’t have an obvious chance at odds of 24.0 on Betfair. But dig a bit further and he is not without hope.
He didn’t cut the mustard in two starts over hurdles over the winter but there was definite promise in his fifth on the all-weather at Kempton last month. That will have tuned him up nicely and he is arguably the best handicapped horse in here on the form he showed for Jeremy Noseda in Group races, albeit two or three years ago.
He is now 11lb lower than when third to Berling and Tominator here, with Ile de Re in behind, over 1m6f two years ago, so handles the course. And he was just touched off in the Queen’s Vase in his pomp, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue either, and fast ground is ideal. All in all, I’ve seen far worse 20+ chances.
Smugglers Gold didn’t start his career too promisingly when last of eight on his debut in March, but he could just underline the progress he has made since by taking the Lily Agnes Stakes at 1.45. odds of around 13.0 would be fair.
To be fair he missed the break on his first start but has looked much better since, posting a couple of good speed figures in the context of this race when third at Leicester and when winning decisively at Lingfield last time.
He certainly can’t afford to miss the kick here – which is maybe why connections have put the visor back on that he wore at Leicester – but he is well berthed in stall two and is worth chancing at a price in this better company.
There were plenty of glum faces after Elik was beaten at Wolverhampton last month, as apparently she had been showing up very well at home for a horse with relatively modest form at two. But I suspect that her odds-on backers got very unlucky there as the winner, debutante Woodland Aria, is apparently heading to the Lingfield Oaks Trial next.
The bare form of that second still leaves Elik with plenty to find on the book here. But she is going the right way and she is certainly bred to appreciate the 2f step up in trip, being by Dalakhani out of a French Group 2 winner over 1m2f110yd. She is worth a shot in the 2.15, which looks a winnable listed race. She would rate a fair bet at around the 10.0 mark when betting settles down.
Silvanus did look very interesting in the 3.15 after his third at Epsom last time, especially as he won over course and distance last season, when making all. But that will be very difficult from stall nine here, so he is reluctantly passed over. It wouldn’t surprise me were Gatepost to run a big race from a falling handicap mark, but the more I look, the more this race looks a no-play event to me.
Recommended Bets
Back Theology in the Chester Cup, 2.45
Back Smuggler’s Gold in the Lily Agnes Stakes, 1.45
Back Elik in the Chester Oaks, 2.15
DOUBLE
1.25 Southwell
FOLLOW THE FLAG @ 7/1 Bet365
Has won 13 races from 6f to 1m 3f including 9 wins on the all-weather (3 FB, 6 PO). Beaten 19l behind Going Grey at 18-1 when 9th of 10 on his latest outing at Newcastle over 1m 2f (good) last month.
2.05 Kelso
ROBBIE @ 3/1 Paddy Power
He has won four hurdle races at 2m on good and good to soft ground. Finished 20l behind Red Inca when sixth of eight at 9-2 on his latest outing in a hurdle race at Haydock over 2m (good to soft) in March.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
E/W SHOUT OF THE DAY
———————————-
KODAFINE in the 13:45 at Chester.
This filly beat Gin Time in good style at Wolverhampton last month. She pulled well clear inside the final furlong and won win the minimum of fuss.
I think she has more to offer, and could go close at a big price in this interesting event.
At present she is trading at 14:5 on the exchange.
Milesey
The Chester Cup is the highlight on the opening day of Chester’s May Festival and, although it is a very competitive race, we are more than happy to side with Countrywide Flame. The five-year-old scored three times on the Flat in 2011 prior to making all here over two miles in September of last year, beating Ardlui by three-quarters of a length. He went on to finish second in the Cesarewitch, not being beaten far by Aaim To Prosper, before embarking on what turned out to be an excellent season over hurdles, winning the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and improving upon that form when finishing an admirable third in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is a thoroughly likeable performer who has the ideal running style for this type of race and, though he is a relatively short price, he is almost certain to go extremely close.
The action at Southwell may not be of the same quality as at Chester but that won’t matter if we can find a winner, and we may have done just that in the 14:55. There is no denying that it is a poor race made up largely of modest performers but one that could be ahead of its mark is Plus Fours, who makes his first start for Michael Appleby here having previously been trained by Charles Smith. Appleby is adept at reviving horses that appear to have lost their way and that certainly applies to Plus Fours, who has dropped in the weights from an initial mark of 63 down to 46. The cheekpieces are in place today and he is definitely one to note, particularly if the market speaks in his favour.
We return to Chester for the 17:00, could taste some success with the Ralph Beckett-trained Mombasa. The three-year-old is a well-related colt by Dubawi and, despite taking a couple of outings to find his feet last season, managed to get off the mark in a Newbury maiden in October. Mombasa progressed again when finishing second to High Troja, on his seasonal return an handicap debut at Leicester last month, and the suspicion is that he has more to offer now granted a greater test of stamina.
PATENT / TRIXIE
————————–
Back Countrywide Flame @ 4.5 in the 14:45 at Chester
Back Plus Fours @ 4.7 in the 14:55 at Southwell
Back Mombasa @ 4.6 in the 17:00 at Chester
Milesey
( betfair )
E/W SHOUT OF THE DAY
KODAFINE @ 19.0 betfair
13:45 Chester
*****************************
PLACE and WIN
Smuggler’s Gold 7.0 BETFAIR
13.45 Chester
*****************************
Elik @ 8.8 betfair
2.15 Chester
*****************************
Theology @ 20.0 betfair E/W
2.45 Chester
*****************************
*****************************
DOUBLE
1.25 Southwell
FOLLOW THE FLAG @ 8.2 BETFAIR
2.05 Kelso
ROBBIE @ 2.8 BETFAIR
****************************
PATENT / TRIXIE
Countrywide Flame @ 4.5 BETFAIR
14:45 Chester
Plus Fours @ 4.7 BETFAIR
14:55 Southwell
Mombasa ( NON RUNNER )
MAJEED @ 6.0 BETFAIR
17:00 Chester
***************************
Milesey
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
——————————–
The sprint handicap at 15:15 is, as to be expected, fiercely competitive. There is loads of pace on with Noble Storm, Captain Dunne, Silvanus, Fitz Flyer, Forest Edge, Decision By One and Foxy Music all horses that have blasted out to make the running on recent outings. Whilst the pace can last out around Chester regardless of how quick they go surely this is going to suit something coming from mid-field or worse and I am prepared to risk Head Space at his current odds of 15.0. He is something of a loveable rogue, having bags of natural ability though sometimes needing motivating to channel it in the right direction. He has the aids of an idiosyncratic track and eyeshields today and whilst he was slightly disappointing at Pontefract last time having made a pleasing reappearance at Beverley, that race didn’t play to his strengths whilst this seems sure to.
Back Head Space @ 15.0 in the 15:15 at Chester
**************************************
TODAYS NAP
—————–
Best bet of the day at Southwell looks to be Punching in the 14:25. A spell on polytrack (nowhere near as effective on that surface) has led to a reduced mark and it was at about this time last year where he won a couple, albeit a seller and claimer. His last run here can easily be forgiven (lost all chance at the start) and he is worth a bet at 6.6.
Back Punching @ 5.9 in the 14:25 at Southwell
Milesey
CHESTER PLACEPOT
*****************
13:45- It is a tricky start to proceedings as the Lily Agnes Stakes has attracted an unusually large field and, unfortunately, many of the fancied runners have been drawn wide. The draw bias over five furlongs at Chester, favouring those drawn low, is well known and we will largely focus on the two-year-olds aided by the draw. The first horse we turn to is Smugglers Gold. David Evans’ gelding has improved with each run, putting his experience to good use when getting off the mark at Lingfield last time, and he can take advantage of his good draw in stall two. M’selle was forward enough to get off the mark on debut, and, although she hasn’t improved markedly since, the level of form she showed when runner-up at Newmarket should ensure that she is competitive from her prime draw in stall 1. It may also pay to include the Tom Dascombe-trained Quatuor as she showed plenty of pace to score at Windsor last time and might be capable of making an impact form a wider-than-ideal draw in stall 8.
14:15- Things don’t get much easier as we are faced with a competitive, if rather substandard, renewal of the Chesire Oaks. Sir Michael Stoute has his string in fantastic order, his fillies faring particularly well of late, and it could be worth taking a chance on Elik showing significant improved now that she faces the sort of stamina test her pedigree and running style suggest should suit. It could be a mistake to underestimate the claims of Dundalk scorer Keeping as she won her all-weather maiden in impressive fashion, tanking along before quickening clear, and is open to plenty of improvement.
14:45- It may seem strange to select a banker in the seventeen-runner Chester Cup, but Countrywide Flame looks like an extremely solid proposition with plenty in his favour and looks sure to launch a bold bid. Well handicapped, well drawn and a course winner at Chester, the only doubt surrounding Countrywide Flame is a rare below-par effort on his latest start at Aintree, but he was hampered on that occasion and, considering his likeable profile, it is well worth forgiving him.
15:15- Richard Fahey has started the season firing on all cylinders, while Marwan Koukash loves nothing more than a winner at Chester. They are represented by Gatepost, who steps back to five furlongs on his seasonal return, and it is fair to assume he won’t be lacking for fitness on his reappearance. He looks well handicapped based on the pick of his efforts and a big effort looks assured. It is also worth including Noble Storm as he too looks well treated, hails from an in-form stable and has performed well at Chester in the past.
15:50- We reach our second banker of the day in the shape of the Brian Meehan-trained Number One London. Having shown promise as a two-year-old, Number One London returned this season in a strong-looking Newbury maiden, putting up a good effort to finish third behind a promising pair of rivals. The step up to ten furlongs looks likely to suit and he can see us through to the final leg.
16:25- Jwala showed rapid improvement last term, her season culminating with a fine effort in second behind a Group 1 performer in Sole Power at Doncaster. She was below her best on her seasonal return at Bath, but simply shaped as if needing the run on that occasion and she is capable of an improved performance here. Confessional has a poor strike-rate for a horse of his ability, but he did shape well at Newbury last time and is likely to be on the premises.
Selections:
13:45- 5, 7, 15
14:15- 2, 7
14:45- 13
15:15- 2, 6
15:50- 8
16:25- 3, 7
= 24 lines
Milesey
Milesey, got an 11am tee time so heading off. Will post golf at some point today.
Selections:
13:45- 5, 7, 15
14:15- 2, 7
14:45- 13
15:15- 2, 6
15:50- 8
16:25- 3, 7
= 24 lines
RESULTS
————-
13:45 – 15, 6, 9
14:15 – 1, 3, 6
14:45 – 6, 16, 4, 1
15:15 – 11, 4, 1
15:50 – 11, 12, 8
16:25 – 1, 5
Milesey
runner-by-runner guide to the feature race on the opening day of Chester’s May Meeting…
Simenon is a useful hurdler and was smart on the level, landing pair of wide-margin victories at Royal Ascot last year. Struggled in better company subsequently on Flat, though, and well held over hurdles twice since.
Thimaar landed 2m handicaps at Ascot on final 2011 run and Kempton on last season’s return. Ran well in defeat next 3 starts, but below par in Lonsdale Cup at York, and disappointing over hurdles since.
Ile de Re landed this event 12 months ago before taking Northumberland Plate in June. Found out in better company at Ascot next time, and disappointing both hurdle starts since, but folly to dismiss.
Tominator won the 2011 Northumberland Plate and back to form when landing 13f handicap here in September. Third in Cesarewitch on first start for this yard, and dual novice hurdle-winner over winter.
Softsong is a useful performer, successful in pair of claimers/handicap in France in 2011. Hasn’t won on Flat/over hurdles since, though, possibly amiss when tailed off over timber at Haydock last time.
Address Unknown was suited by emphasis on speed when winning over 2m at Ascot in August, and good third here (1½m) week later, but flopped in Old Borough Cup at Haydock on final start for Ian Williams following month.
Investissement was a useful ex-French performer for Andre Fabre. Last seen on Flat when third in 2011 Ebor for John Gosden, but has shown little form over hurdles for this yard in recent months.
Olympiad is a lightly-raced sort who landed 2m handicap at York in August. Mitigating circumstances when below par in Cesarewitch subsequently, and done no favours with wide draw again here.
Buckland’s form has taken off this year, winning 4 times at up 1½m on AW. Excellent second in Queen’s Prize and better still when fourth in Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last week. May not have stopped progressing yet.
Theology was a smart performer in 2011, twice placed in listed events. Hasn’t matched that form over hurdles/on Flat since, but better than result when fifth (behind Buckland) at Kempton (2m) last month. Respected.
Suraj was twice successful at Doncaster last year, impressively resuming progress in 1¾m handicap in June. Found out from revised mark next twice, but placed both starts over hurdles for Jonjo O’Neill since.
Very Good Day was a comfortable winner of a 2m York handicap in July and only found Olympiad too good over that same C&D following month, nearest at finish. Forgiven lesser effort in Cesarewitch on final outing last term.
Countrywide Flame Won 3 times on Flat in 2011, and made all here (2m) in September. High-class hurdler, 2012 Triumph winner and third in this year’s Champion, and though bit below par at Aintree since is respected.
Montaser is a lightly-raced sort who bettered wins in handicaps at Haydock (1½m) and Ascot (2m) when only headed late on at Yarmouth (1¾m) in September. Disappointed in Cesarewitch, but been gelded since. NON RUNNER
Justification has only been seen on 5 occasions, winning 1½m Dundalk maiden in 2011, and returned from 8-month absence to land 10-runner 1¾m Leopardstown handicap last month. Sure to be of interest again.
Ingleby Spirit scored at Pontefract (1¼m) 2 years ago and, fit from hurdling, back to best when winning 14-runner 1½m handicap at Doncaster last month. May struggle to defy 8 lb weight hike at this trip, however.
Good Morning Star sprang a 50/1 shock in Cheshire Oaks 12 months ago, and has understandably struggled since, only eighth of 10 in 2m Ripon handicap on last month’s return.
Kiama Bay progressed well in 2011, winning trio of handicaps at up to 1½m (including here). Struggled to make an impact last term, but handicapper continuing to cut him a bit more slack.
1. Countrywide Flame
2. Justification
3. Olympiad
Champion Hurdle third Countrywide Flame is a thoroughly likeable horse and can land this valuable prize on the back of a cracking jumps campaign. There is a strong Irish challenge, with both Justification and Olympiad remaining unexposed at staying trips and making plenty of appeal, while Kiama Bay could prove the pick of Dr Marwan Koukash’s four having snuck in as first reserve.
Milesey
( betfair )
3:35 KELSO
WILLIAM MONEY @ 8/1 BET365
Won on his latest outing in a chase when 9-4fav at Carlisle over 2m 5f (good) last month, beating Balbriggan by 8l
Milesey
All the big movers ahead of a day’s racing at Chester, Kelso and Southwell…
Chester
13:45
Quatuor 4.33 out to 5.4
Smugglers Gold 8.27 in to 6.0
Sleepy Joe 8.66 in to 7.0
14:15
Banoffee 6.86 out to 11.5
14:45
Countrywide Flame 5.69 in to 4.5
Buckland 20.0 in to 13.0
Simenon 11.93 out to 18.5
Theology 34.0 in to 19.0
15:50
Russian Realm 4.1 in to 2.58
Battalion 5.8 out to 17.0
Kelso
14:35
Welsh Bard 3.41 in to 2.72
Pudsey House 5.35 out to 9.4
15:35
Night In Milan 5.5 in to 4.4
16:45
Cloudy Dawn 6.78 in to 4.6
17:20
Powderonthebonnet 2.5 out to 3.4
I Got Power 10.0 in to 4.9
Southwell
13:25
Kingscombe 11.5 in to 5.0
13:55
Flirtinaskirt 2.9 in to 2.3
14:25
Punching 9.4 in to 6.4
16:00
Wicked Wench 10.5 in to 6.8
16:35
Fine Kingdom 10.5 in to 8.6
17:10
Bellarte 2.74 out to 3.65
Luv U Whatever 7.4 in to 5.2
Milesey
TENNIS
———–
Rafa Nadal makes his entrance to the 2013 Mutua Madrid Masters today against Benoit Paire and there is some potential value in this second round encounter..
I said yesterday that Florian Mayer is an unpredictable talent and I probably should have added the same about Andy Murray, who grimaced, groaned and creaked his way to a narrow win in Madrid on Tuesday.
Murray was at his passive worst against the mentally fragile German, who blew at least five set points in the opener before taking advantage of a seriously below par Murray to force another tie break, which he also lost.
I also mentioned on Tuesday that Novak Djokovic faced a tricky match against Grigor Dimitrov and that a lay of Djokovic 2-0 at 1.3 was worth a look and so it proved, as the young Bulgarian not only took a set but stunned the world number one in a dramatic second round match at a partisan Magic Box last night.
The defeat for Djokovic could be great news for those who followed my advice of backing 67.0 long shot Tomas Berdych, who now has a great chance to take advantage of the hole in the top half of the draw.
Wednesday’s play at La Caja Magica sees birthday boy Benoit Paire take on Rafa Nadal and two more contrasting attitudes to the game one could not wish to see, as the languid Paire, who spent most of his on court time in Oeiras shuffling around in a hoodie, taking on the brooding intensity of Nadal.
These conditions don’t really suit Rafa’s game despite it being clay, but I can’t part with a single penny on Paire in any circumstances let alone against Rafa.
The +6.5 games is tempting on the handicap, but Paire tends to give up way too easily and the second set handicap market of minus 3.5 games on Nadal looks a good bet in that one.
In his last five losses, Paire has chucked in the deciding set by scores of 6-4, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 and 6-2 and I can’t imagine him wanting to hang around long on his birthday if he’s getting a hammering.
Nadal will be buoyed by Djokovic’s defeat and I doubt that he’ll allow Paire to get as close as he did when they met at the crack of dawn in Barcelona a few weeks ago in a match rescheduled due to rain.
Rafa will be odds-against for this and it’s well worth taking against someone with the mentality of Paire.
Elsewhere, there are reports of Nico Almagro struggling with a hip injury ahead of his clash with Mikhail Youzhny and that being the case, it’s worth a cheeky lay of Nico 2-0 at around 1.80 against an opponent he’s never beaten in four attempts.
This clash of the stylish one-handed backhands could have been close anyway, with Youzhny boosted by his remarkable win over Fabio Fognini yesterday in which the Italian choked from 1.01, so if Nico is less than 100% the odds are in our favour in that one.
Recommended Bets
Back Nadal -3.5 games in set two vs Paire at 2.10
Lay Almagro 2-0 vs Youzhny at 1.80
Milesey
( betfair )
RESULTS
————
ATP – SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay
Youzhny M. (Rus) 2-1 Almagro N. (Esp)
ATP – SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay
Nadal R. (Esp) 2-0 Paire B. (Fra)
( 6-3 ) ( 6-4 )
Milesey
GOLF
*****
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, where the world’s best will be attempting to win the year’s ‘fifth major’…
Tournament History
Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the event used to be staged in March but was moved to May in 2007. Universally known as the games ‘fifth major’, a top-class field always assembles at TPC Sawgrass and this year is no exception. The PGA Tour website describes this week’s line-up as the deepest, strongest field in golf and it’s impossible to argue against them. This will be the 40th staging of The Players Championship.
Venue
TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Course Details
Par 72 -7,215 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 72.47
Constructed in 1980, specifically for the purpose of hosting this event, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass has been the tournament’s venue since 1982. It’s yet another Bermuda-grass Pete Dye design and it’s one of the most renowned courses in the world. The par 3 17th, with its dramatic island green, is one of the most recognised holes in golf.
Described as a balanced course, with doglegged holes going both ways and holes routed so that no two consecutive ever play in the same direction, it’s a true test that doesn’t tend to favour any one type of player, though accurate iron-play and tip-top scrambling is usually the key to success.
In 2006, just before the event moved to it’s now regular May date, all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation, and sub-air systems were installed. The result being that the firmness of the, smaller than average sized, greens can be controlled in any weather conditions.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 6.00pm on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Matt Kuchar -13
2011 – K.J Choi -13 (playoff)
2010 – Tim Clark -16
2009 – Henrik Stenson -12
2008 -Sergio Garcia -5 (playoff)
What will it take to win The Players Championship?
The odd big-hitter has obliged but driving distance is pretty much unimportant. Nine of the last 13 winners ranked in the top ten for Greens In Regulation and Sergio Garcia and last year’s victor, Matt Kuchar, are the only winners in the last eight years to rank outside the top-ten for Scrambling.
Is there an angle in?
Plenty of course experience certainly helps and getting to know the gaff looks key. When Henrik Stenson took the title in 2009, he was playing in the event for just the fourth time but he’s the only Players champ in the last seven years to have previously played Sawgrass less than seven times prior to winning.
The chances are we’ll see another new winner of the event – in the last 20 years there have been 20 different winners. Jack Nicklaus is the only man to win The Players three times and Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Davis Love III and Hall Sutton are the only men to win it twice. And don’t back Matt Kuchar – nobody has ever defended.
Don’t be afraid to back an outsider – the list of past champions contains plenty of shock winners. I can’t imagine too many picked out the likes of Craig Perks or Fred Funk and although I have fond memories of backing Stephen Ames in 2006, he went off at 170.0.
Is there an identikit winner?
I would certainly favour the older, experienced players with an accurate approach game over the younger aggressive types. The wily old vet that knows how to plot his way around is just as likely to contend as any of the young guns. Fred Funk won here in 2005 and the likes of Paul Goydos, Kenny Perry and David Toms have all come close to winning recently. But in truth, all sorts of players have won here and finding a single type of player to prosper is hard.
In-Play Tactics
Being up on the pace from early on is certainly preferable. In the last ten years, only Stephen Ames and K.J Choi have won from outside the top-20 after day one. Between 2004 and 2008, that necessity for a fast start was advertised most strongly, with Adam Scot, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia all going on to win having led the field after round one. And Fred Funk, the 2005 champ, had been second after the first day.
Third round leaders are worth opposing though – the last six have all failed to convert.
Romilly Evans highlights here how starting out on the 10th hole could prove advantageous and he also describes the pivotal finishing holes superbly too.
Market Leaders
Tiger Woods reserves all his best golf for the same venues nowadays but unfortunately for favourite backers, Sawgrass isn’t one of them.
In 14 starts, he’s won just once and he has an average finishing position of 25th. That’s perfectly respectable form of course but when you consider he’s been the best player on the planet, and by some margin, over much of the last 15 years and that it’s safe to assume he’s pitched up here on numerous occasions in his absolute pomp, then taking a single-figure price about him this week holds no appeal.
Adam Scot and Rory McIlroy are vying for second favouritism and if I had to pick one it would be the latter. Scott, winner here in 2004, is making his first appearance since his dramatic US Masters playoff triumph and winning back-to-back is always tough, especially when you’re attempting to back-up a major! The media will no doubt be all over him this week and although I expect a big upturn in the Aussie’s fortunes now that he’s won a major, I don’t expect it to be immediate.
McIlroy’s record here is poor to say the least. Causing much ado, he swerved the event in 2011 and he’s only played here three times. He’s never made the cut, he’s never broken par and he claims not to have gotten to grips with the place yet but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see that change this week. Rickie Fowler finished runner-up last year after a couple of missed cuts, so it can be done if you’re classy enough and Rory’s game was in tip-top order at Quail Hollow last week.
Selections
Luke Donald isn’t a terrific price this week but he ticks all the right boxes so boldly that I felt he had to be backed and I’ll be quite disappointed if he doesn’t contend.
With ten Sawgrass starts already in the bag, he has plenty of vital course experience and his course form’s not bad either. Runner-up behind Funk in 2005, Luke also finished 4th in 2011 and 6th last year. He has an impressive record in Florida, where he’s won twice recently and where he’s finished inside the top-six in eight of his last 11 starts and he was third last time out, in the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head – another Pete Dye design.
I was more than happy to take 30.0 about 2007 champ, Phil Mickelson, whose putting at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, on greens most were struggling with, was quite simply sensational. He made 39 consecutive putts inside ten feet at one stage and unsurprisingly topped the Putting Average stats for the week.
He snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with bogeys on two of the last three holes on Sunday but he’s just the sort of character to put that behind him immediately and bounce right back the following week. He comes here in fine form, has plenty of Sawgrass experience and at odds of 30.0, I fancy he’s slightly overlooked.
My third and final selection is Ben Crane, who also has bags of Sawgrass form to call on. After running up a sequence of finishes here reading 6-5-4, he’s been a bit disappointing in the each of the last two renewals (tied 45th in 2011 and a missed cut in 2012) but he could very easily find his Sawgrass swing again this time around and I thought he was well worth backing at 140.0.
Pre-Event Selections:
Luke Donald @ 24.0
Phil Mickelson @ 30.0
Ben Crane @ 140.0
Back to LAY SHOTS
******************
You won’t get many better opportunities on the golfing calendar to make money trading outsiders than the Players Championship. It isn’t so much that it regularly produces freak winners, though we’ve had three in triple-figures this century. Rather, the great thing about Sawgrass is that leaderboards change fast, often meaning many more players than usual get into contention and shorten markedly in the betting. It is not unheard of for a dozen different players to hold weekend favouritism at some stage.
It also helps that an elite field at the ‘Fifth Major’ means no shortage of quality available within our price range. My plan, therefore, is to back a trio of players all at well above 200.0, with a view to laying back for a sizeable profit should any of them hit the relatively unambitious target of 20.0.
First up a man who traded well below that mark in no lesser contest than the Masters on his penultimate start. Marc Leishman was mightily impressive at Augusta, standing his ground in contention for all four days, and maintained his good form with a top-ten the following week at Harbour Town. That marked improvement makes it easy to ignore three previous failures at Sawgrass, a course that takes plenty of learning.
Accurate driving is a pre-requisite for success around hazard-strewn Sawgrass, which leads me towards 280.0 chance John Huh, who has been hitting a high percentage of fairways lately. 11th on his penultimate start at the Masters was outstanding and last year’s Sawgrass debut was promising, fighting back from an opening 75 to make the top-25.
Finally, despite lacking any course form to recommend, Mark Wilson is simply too big to ignore at 400.0 after finishing third and ninth on his last two starts. Four PGA Tour victories is an outstanding for a player of Wilson’s calibre. All came at huge odds and there were no obvious course form clues available beforehand. In short, he’s precisely the type of rank outsider worth throwing a few pennies at, because he knows how to win.
Recommended bets
Back Marc Leishman 2u @ 220.0
Back John Huh 1.5u @ 280.0
Back Mark Wilson 1u @ 400.0
Milesey
Four likely lads to set the early tempo at Sawgrass, where expect Jimmy Walker to start strongly
The first-round lead is something that every player would like, but none is recklessly determined to secure. And for that reason alone, it’s always worth opposing the tournament favourites who invariably view round one as an exercise in positioning on the tournament mountain of 156 players. Test the layout, define your gameplan, secure your foothold in the competition and fasten the ropes for a Sunday ascent. Hence the old adage: you can’t win it on a Thursday, but you can certainly blow it.
So when picking your runners in the context of this mad dash within a considered marathon, it can pay to side with the streaky golfer, not necessarily the most reliable. After all, Sawgrass is a course where you can get on a roll if you’re finding the fairways and greens in regulation. Every hole is “birdieable”, but most also house a watery grave which can blight any scorecard. Controlled aggression is therefore the recommended attitude.
This in mind, which trailblazer will be the first to enjoy a legal high on Sawgrass? Let’s have a look at the prime prerequisites for early contention.
Key Criteria:
An early start time: The morning phalanx of players always gets the chance to rack up the red figures when the course is at its most receptive – and its pins at their most accessible. Velvet surfaces are also un-spiked by the mid-afternoon traffuic which increasingly roughs them up for the later starters.
Consult First-round Scoring Statistics: Round One Scoring Average is a hardy perennial of reference for first-round leaders. However, those good statistical folk at the PGA have gone even better this season by digging even deeper into the initial numbers to unveil the new category of Early Tee Time Scoring Average. It clearly demonstrates those players who are best equipped to take advantage of perfect putting surfaces.
Consult the weather forecast: And these greens in round one could exhibit an even stronger bias towards the morning wave of golfers this year. That’s because unusually heavy downpours have been falling at Sawgrass over the weekend, delaying the fifth major’s practice schedule and bringing over five inches of rain to the local area. Although this layout is possessed of the latest drainage techniques, the propensity for course deterioration over the opening 18 holes has just been ratcheted up a notch. Especially as another storm is forecast before battle commences.
Players To Support: Jimmy Walker (7.36am) Fourth in Early Scoring Average this term and one of the better putters around, Walker is the personification of streaky. Never afraid to go low and attempt to dominate from the gun, an early wake-up call gives him that opportunity again.
Francesco Molinari (7.26am) Little more than a hunch, considering he’s been uncharacteristically erratic this year, but the younger Molinari has all the attributes to excel here if hitting top form – and he’s a huge price. His tee-to-green game is peerless on the European Tour and while he lacks for distance, that’s not essential in unlocking this Florida venue. Now recovered from recent shoulder and arm niggles, he has the ideal start time.
Billy Horschel (8.29am) In the form of his life and third in the Early Scoring Average rankings, Horschel only lacks for course form. However, he took a week off to prepare for this Players’ unique test and is possessed of the cocksure mentality with which to bully this field from the initial exchanges.
Rickie Fowler (8.08am) Blessed of a simple, repeating swing and never afraid to go low, this flashy crowd-pleaser also has the length and accuracy to bring Sawgrass to its knees. Fowler often jumps out of the block hot, while his course form was bolstered by just missing out here behind Matt Kuchar last year.
Recommended Bets
Back Jimmy Walker @ 120.0
Back Francesco Molinari @ 160.0
Back Billy Horschel @ 55.0
Back Rickie Fowler @ 60.0
Milesey
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IPL CRICKET
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Sunrisers Hyderabad v Chennai Super Kings
Wednesday 8th May, 15:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Hyderabad continue to surprise. The fade that many expected them to suffer in the second half of the IPL group stage just hasn’t happened and with seven wins from 11 games only an inferior net run rate keeps them outside the play-off places. Kumar Sangakkara may be struggling with his own form – he’s dropped then reinstated himself, moved up and down the order and now handed over the wicketkeeping gloves in a fruitless search for runs – but there is no denying that he has built up a real team ethos which has kept the Sunrisers punching far above their weight. With the ball, Dale Steyn continues to be miserly and has the best economy rate of any bowler in this IPL who has taken more than 10 wickets, whilst Amit Mishra remains third in the overall wicket-taking table with 17. The problem is that until the batsmen start scoring some runs (their top scorer is Hanuma Vihari with a meagre 166) that net run rate is going to be a problem and they need to not only win, but win with some comfort in order to make those play-offs.
Chennai Super Kings
Chennai sit atop the table with nine wins from 12 games, but Saturday’s heavy defeat in Mumbai cost them the chance to seal an automatic play-off spot by winning in Hyderabad. MS Dhoni will hope that that clumsy defeat, in which they were bowled out for 79 and leading batsman Michael Hussey was dropped three times in an over en route to top scoring with 22, serves as a wake-up call, as defeat here opens up the possibility of them missing the post-season altogether. On the positive side, Chris Morris is at last showing some of the form that made him Chennai’s biggest signing of the 2013 auction and Dwayne Bravo’s excellent run with the ball continued as he picked up another wicket to make him the first to 20 this season. Both will fancy their chances of taking wickets against the lacklustre Hyderabad batting, the bigger question is whether their own batsmen can recover from the weekend’s performance against Steyn, Mishra & co?
Venue and Conditions
The Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for the Sunrisers so far. They’ve won every home match, the last two by six and seven wickets. It isn’t the easiest ground to score runs on, with the top first innings score being 130, and the only time that a team has won batting first was in the hosts’ opening game, when they beat an already weak Pune side. There are some heavy rain showers predicted for the afternoon, but these are expected to clear up by the time the game starts and with temperatures still in the high thirties even at 8.30pm there shouldn’t be a delayed start.
Match odds
Hyderabad are 2.46 outsiders to Chennai’s 1.62. Given their unbeaten home record, which includes sides currently above them in the table such as Bangalore and Rajasthan, that looks a good value bet to me, especially if they get to bat second.
Top Hyderabad Batsman
There’s been a temptation all through this season to back Sangakkara purely on the basis that he’s a world class batsman who has to come good eventually. Well, it hasn’t happened yet and watching him scratch around as his team chased down 80 to beat Delhi at the weekend it doesn’t look like happening any time soon, so resist that temptation. Instead, back another of Hyderabad’s overseas stars in Darren Sammy, who is striking the ball very well and who has been batting higher up the order than Sangakkara. He should be priced at around 5.0.
Top Chennai Batsman
Hussey is always the safe bet for Chennai, even managing to stop score in the weekend debacle, but for that reason he’ll be short odds. There will be better odds to have on Dhoni, who often promotes himself up the order following bad performances and who should be available at around 4.4.
Recommended Bet:
Back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 2.46 to win.
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Milesey
( Betfair )
FA CUP FINAL
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The FA Cup has become almost as much of a closed shop as the Premier League in recent years and the stats say Manchester City should have little trouble taking the trophy for the second time in three years with victory over Wigan.
But the strong figures associated with the dominance of the big six teams mean there are some good alternatives to the short-priced options of City to lift the trophy at 1.21 and to win the match in 90 minutes at 1.36.
City are now part of the big six and between them that group have won the FA Cup in 22 of the past 24 years. The big-six side has won the last 10 finals when faced by a team from outside that group, nine of them in 90 minutes and eight of them to nil. The dominance of the big six has been almost total.
Just as tellingly, top-four finishers against teams below that group have won 10 out of 10 in the Premier League era, with a 90-minute record of won nine and drawn one.
All of those figures point to a City win in 90 minutes, most probably to nil, and their excellent cup record suggests they will not fail on Saturday. Since Roberto Mancini took charge, City have had 13 wins and only one defeat out of 18 in 90-minute play in the FA Cup. The one defeat was excusable as it was against the strongest possible opponent (Manchester United last season) and only after they had been fatally weakened by Vincent Kompany’s early sending-off.
Most of Wigan’s form this season indicates they lack the class to cause an upset. The only team of note they have beaten en route to Wembley is Everton in the 3-0 quarter-final win at Goodison Park. All their other ties were against lower-league opponents (Bournemouth, Macclesfield, Huddersfield and Millwall).
And in the Premier League this season Wigan have lost nine out of 11 against big-six teams (eight of the defeats were to nil). The only big-six team they have had any success against is Tottenham, with a 1-0 away win and a 2-2 home draw, and their only other goal against a big-six team came in a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea.
It is notable that Mancini has had no problem at all with Wigan since taking over as City boss. His side have won all seven meetings and all to nil (3-0 twice, 2-0 twice and 1-0 three times).
City to win to nil at 1.89 looks a good bet, based on both the overall FA Cup final stats and the City-Wigan head-to-heads.
City have never led more than 1-0 at half-time in those seven meetings (that has been the score four times, with 0-0 on the other three occasions) and it is worth noting that the opening goal in this season’s two league matches came in the 69th minute at Wigan (in a 2-0 win) and in the 83rd minute in City’s 1-0 home win.
A half-time score of 0-0 is tempting at 3.2, although for bigger odds it might be worth trying draw/Man City on the half-time/full-time at 3.95.
The obvious second choice for the half-time score is 1-0 to City at 3.25 and that might be better than backing City/City on the half-time/full-time at 2.0.
Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 is strongly indicated, as 14 of the last 20 finals have had unders and so have five of the seven City-Wigan matches in the Mancini era.
For a correct score, 1-0 to City at 8.4 and 2-0 to City at 7.4 look the best options. Eleven of the 20 finals in the Premier League era have had one of those scorelines.
Recommended Bets
Manchester City to win to nil at 1.89
Under 2.5 goals at 2.28
Milesey
BOXING
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Ricky Burns’ clash with Jose Gonzalez in defence of his WBO title…
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They say that a change is as good as a rest. Ricky Burns will certainly be hoping so as he’s experienced both in recent months. This weekend we find out if that has been a blessing or a hindrance as Burns defends his WBO title against Puerto Rican puncher Jose Gonzalez.
Luck deserted Burns at the end of last year when his opponent pulled out of a December fight and the late replacement Liam Walsh was injured in a car crash. Then with a big unification clash against Miguel Vazquez approaching this spring, illness to his fellow world champion put the brakes on that too. Burns was peeved, picked up his bag and left Frank Warren to join Eddie Hearn’s flourishing Matchroom stable. After seven months out of action (the longest spell in recent years), Burns makes his debut for the new team.
On paper this looks a good piece of matchmaking with Gonzalez holding the No1 ranking within the WBO but only just inside the top 50 with Boxrec. Unbeaten in 22 fights, Gonzalez has built a reputation as a puncher with 17 stoppage wins including 10 KOs inside three rounds. There’s no doubt the Puerto Rican is still raw and he has an amateur habit of pulling back from punches in straight lines but I think he’s as dangerous as that record suggests.
Gonzalez has been fighting opponents some way removed from Burns in terms of ability but he has impressed in demolishing them nonetheless. Oscar Cuero was a late notice, eight-time losing rival but Gonzalez hammered him with a couple of crunching body shots. Eddie Soto was also halted in a round with a short, left-right combination as Gonzalez produced a scary, showreel stoppage off the back foot. There is no doubt that Gonzalez is heavy handed, he fights with poise and patience too and if he lands, this is a fight he can win.
It is though a massive step up in class for Gonzalez against a champion who seems at the top of his game, at least the last time we saw him. I was ringside in September when Burns thumped Kevin Mitchell in four rounds, a sensational, decisive performance that took most of the boxing world by surprise. Ricky looked enormous that night-he’s clearly growing into the division-and has developed a fast, effective style. The jab will be important again for Burns and he looks quicker than Gonzalez but he will have to be wary of counters off his lead punch.
There is also the danger that Burns might have gone off the boil given he has been in and out of training camps since October. Generally Burns is in the gym anyway so it may be a matter of staying focused more than anything else but it’s possible he may be jaded. The Scotsman trades on his fitness along with excellent technique so backers will have to trust that he is on it as usual. If so, Burns has the ability to control this fight and take it on points.
Gonzalez reminds me a little of Breidis Prescott who came to the UK in 2008 as an unknown with a punchers’ record and left as the man who hammered Amir Khan. He will size up as the biggest Burns has fought in the division and he looks the most dangerous too. The footage of Gonzalez shows a fighter who has improved significantly in the last two years and one who has both the weight and variety of punch to cause Burns problems and hurt him too. We just don’t know if Gonzalez is quick enough or indeed good enough and if he can hold it together at this level but I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet. Gonzalez is one dangerous dude-with 14 KO’s from his last 16 fights-and he’s hungry too.
The pair share Joseph Laryea on their records with Burns winning in seven in 2011 and who Gonzalez sparked in just three rounds last July; further evidence that Gonzalez is the hunter here. The likelihood is that Burns will be able to control the action and perhaps outclass Gonzalez, certainly I can see that as a possibility and I have the feeling that ‘Rickster’ will be able to make his opponent miss. Gonzalez looks quite menacing if not methodical, a bit like Cotto in the early days. It could just be he’s one-paced but we won’t know until he takes this rise in class.
Burns is unbeaten in 20 fights stretching over six years, he knows how to win and remember he diffused Michael Katsidis comfortably enough. This may be a step back from the unification fights Burns was hoping for but they are on hand if he wins and given the timing as well as the emotional difficulties of the past year, this may be Ricky’s biggest test yet. I’m hoping it’ll be another Burns’ night in Scotland but there is upset in the air.
Recommended Bet
Jose Gonzalez to win by KO/TKO, currently at 4.0
Milesey
( betfair )
Milesey if you don’t mind whats you’re thoughts on
Countrywide Flame
Night In Milan
Foxtrot Jubilee
treble @ 60/1
I’m on WILLIAM MONEY , so i am against Night In Milan.
Milesey
Happy i went Each Way on my Double
Spoke to soon
…………. and Night In Milan is a non runner anyway ;)
Milesey
thanks for you’re thoughts i think i may just go for the double
even better haha
think i may have a nice little single on William Money now too.
russian realm at chester 3.50 with ryan moore on will win
space ship had a dream ride from buick he ran away with it