MAY 31: RACING TIPS & CHAT

Mr Fixit, 30th May 2013, Uncategorized, 21

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WHILST I'm off sampling some foreign golf and even more foreign beer I've set up this thread for Milesey and others to post their tips for the day's racing on 31st May.

So please feel free to post your comments below.

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21 Comments

Milesey 12 years ago

EPSOM
———–
Waterway Run in the 13:35, She has arguably failed to build upon her Group 3 win in the 7f Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket last September in three subsequent starts, but this represents an easier assignment than Group 1 starts in the Breeders Cup and a creditable 6th of 20 in the French 1,000 Guineas last time.

She is worth chancing at odds of around 11+ in a very winnable Group 3 contest. Maybe the ease in the ground will bring about some improvement in her, too.

Resurge’s form figures at Epsom read 121215772, and it is easy to make a convincing case for him return to winning form on the course today in the 14:10.

He won this race off a 3lb higher mark two seasons ago, and I think we can assume that trainer Stuart Kittow, who saddled a 20-1 winner at Salisbury last week, will have him cherry ripe for this. Look for odds of 8 upwards for him.

He did run below par on his reappearance last season on this course, but that came on unfavourably heavy ground, and the season before he ran a cracker to finish second over track and trip on his first start of the campaign. The story around him in simple then; he is a well-handicapped horse who loves the track and he is likely to be primed for his return. He probably wouldnt want much more rain, though.

Sri Putra doesn’t get the credit he deserves, and it could be that the market has underestimated him yet again in the Diomed Stakes a 14:45. He rates a bet at around the 6 mark.

He is certainly better than a Group 3 horse at his best – witness his York win last season and an excellent fifth in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes – is officially the best horse in the race, and won first time out last season. That’ll do for me at the price.

The rain throughout the week is good news for Benzanno’s chance in the 15:20.

He goes best with cut in the ground, and luckily the handicapper has dropped him 3lb for a couple of below efforts recently on faster ground. Throw in course forum figures of 4212, and we have a tempting betting proposition at around 12 or bigger.

Recommended Bets
Back Waterway Run at 9.4 in the 13:35 at Epsom
Back Resurge at 7.8 in the 14:10 at Epsom
Back Sri Putra at 5.8 in the 14:45 at Epsom
Back Benzanno at 9.8 in the 15:20 at Epsom

16:00 EPSOM OAKS

Banoffee has quickly established herself in 2 unbeaten runs, winning Newbury maiden before showing big improvement to land Cheshire Oaks, overcoming trouble in running. Can’t dismiss.

Gertrude Versed was off the mark at fourth time of asking when easy winner of an 11f maiden at Kempton in January. Good second to Banoffee in Cheshire Oaks next time but had every chance that day.

Liber Nauticus created good impression on her sole 2-y-o run when winning maiden at Goodwood, and cemented position towards head of betting for this race when landing Musidora at York on return. Big player.

Madame Defarge is from a good family and belied market weakness when making winning debut at Yarmouth (1m) in the autumn. Good third in listed race at Newmarket on return but more needed here. Should stay.

Miss You Too has improved since joining this yard, second of 19 in valuable sales race at Newmarket before third in Group 1 at Saint-Cloud. Pulled hard when second in Oaks Trial at Lingfield and opposable.

Moth left form of 2 runs last year well behind when running out an impressive winner in maiden at the Curragh. Improved another chunk when third in 1000 Guineas and bred to relish this trip.

Roz was very progressive at 2, overcoming long odds to land maiden at Kempton and listed race at Sandown before excellent second in Fillies’ Mile. Ran poorly in 1000 Guineas on return, however.

Say didn’t show much in sole 2-y-o run but much improved this term, better for return when scoring by 9 lengths in 1½m maiden at Cork. Clearly has potential to improve a lot now up in class.

Secret Gesture is a well-bred filly who confirmed debut promise when easily landing odds in Newbury maiden, and most impressive when winning Lingfield Oaks Trial on return. Remains with plenty of potential.

Talent has a smart pedigree and looks on the way to proving that good herself, much improved for step up in trip when landing listed race at Newmarket on return. Trip won’t be an issue but more still required.

The Lark is a out of a half-sister to Sariska. Improved from debut to win maiden at Doncaster, and shaped well when third in listed race at Newbury on return. Will stay but probably flying too high too soon.

back TALENT place and WIN @ 24.0 Betfair exchange for the OAKS.
****************************************************

LUCKY 15
3:40 MARKET RASEN
CHURCH FIELD 5/4 Bet365
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m and 2m 1f on good to firm and good ground. Won on his latest outing in a hurdle race when 1-2fav at Ludlow over 2m (good) earlier this month, beating Eightfold by 5l. Has also won at Newton Abbot this season.

4:10 CATTERICK
MAPPIN TIME 5/1 Bet365
He has won four times from 5f to 6f on ground varying from firm to good. Third of 12 behind Bonnie Charlie beaten a head at 9-2 on his latest outing at Haydock over 6f (firm) earlier this month.

8:30 BATH
HELL HATH NO FURY 6/1 Bet365
Yet to place in three starts. Finished 20l behind Brass Ring when fourth of 8 at 25-1 on her latest outing at Haydock over 1m 4f (good to firm) last month. She is wearing a visor for the first time.

7:45 GOODWOOD
SILKEN EXPRESS 7/1 Bet365
Successful twice at 5f on soft ground and on the all-weather. Won on her latest outing when 9-4fav at Southwell over 5f earlier this month, beating Demora by 1 3/4l.

OUTSIDER
4:55 MARKET RASEN
Or DOUDAIRIES 10/1 Bet365
He has won a hurdle race and two chases from 2m to 2m 4f on ground varying from good to firm to good to soft. A winner at 6-1 in a chase at Hexham over 2m 4f (good) on his latest outing earlier this month, beating Sergeant Pink by 1 1/2l.

Milesey
Sean Ireland 12 years ago

Some very good pointers for Epsom here :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWpRcRCUKsY
- Milesey 12 years ago
  
  HA HA HA HA, WOW the way ” THE PRICK ” reared up !
  
  hahaha, the finish is great, i’ll give it to ” THE WANKER ” who put in the dive !
  
  Milesey
- Alan 12 years ago
  
  hahaha!! that link is hilarious.
Milesey 12 years ago

SINGLE
———–

9:00 BATH
SHIRLEYS PRIDE 4/1 BET365
She has won three times at 5f on good to firm and good ground. A winner at 5-1 at Goodwood over 5f (good) on her latest outing earlier this month, beating Pixilated by 1 1/4l. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success. Has won 3 times this season

For a DOUBLE……………………

5:10 CATTERICK
RANGI 4/1 BET365
A winner at 7f on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Someone’s Darling when second of 13 at 12-1 on his latest outing at Redcar over 6f (good to firm) earlier this month. He is wearing blinkers for the first time.

For a TREBLE………………….

2:55 CATTERICK
LOST IN PARIS 4/1 BET365
Winner of five races at 5f on ground varying from firm to good. Beaten 1/2l by Lucky Numbers when second of 10 at 16-1 on his latest outing over this course and distance (good to soft) earlier this month.

Milesey
Milesey 12 years ago

9:30 AM Live inplay BET365

BRISBANE KNIGHTS RESERVES v TARINGA ROVERS RESERVES

Nothing on offer on the goal market as of yet, will have to wait till it goes inplay.

Previous matches:
Western Spirit 1 – 7 Taringa Rovers
Brisbane Knights 0 – 3 Mount Gravatt

Taringa Rovers 5 – 1 Moggill
North Pine 5 – 1 Brisbane Knights

Taringa Rovers 2 – 2 Mount Gravatt
Brisbane Knights 1 – 13 Mitchelton

Milesey
- Milesey 12 years ago
  
  well…………… that reserve game finished 2-2 this morning.
  
  I have already flagged this up for tomorrow morning:
  
  Pine Rivers United Reserve v North Pine Reserve
  
  Pine Rivers should absolutely PUMP these !
  
  *******************************************************
  
  ********************************************************
  
  RESURGE @ 13/2, winnings cover all my bets at Epsom today, so great to get the winner in the 2nd race, shame about the first race, 4th place, thought the horse was left with too much to do after travelling second last, came strongly towards the end of the race.
  
  Milesey
- Sly 12 years ago
  
  Aye thks mate gonna have a look. Reserve game was pish but the main event and the game Green bank vs Centenary stormers compensated it
- Milesey 12 years ago
  
  BRISBANE LEAGUE
  ————————–
  
  WOLVES V QUEENSLAND LIONS
  
  Should be plenty of goals in this one tomorrow morning at 8am.
  
  Milesey
Guido 12 years ago

Resurge 13/2…nice one/well spotted as usual Milesey ;-)
Lord Clegg 12 years ago

Well done Milesey- bit worried that Callan is not on Sri Putra though- Dettori isn’t having a great day going by the first race!
tadgh 12 years ago

20/1!!! Talent and resurge!!!!!! Thank you milesey!!!!!!!! xxx
tadgh 12 years ago

Well resurge 5/1 but talent 20’s!!! What a beautiful day :-)
conor 12 years ago

well done with Talent Milesey! Any ideas on Goteberg game? playing a team on bad form but their away form isn’t great either.
Milesey 12 years ago

In-form IFK Goteborg travel to Osters.

The visitors will line up for this clash high in confidence following three league games unbeaten on the bounce, and boss Mikael Stahre will be keen for his side to build on that positive run here.

Goteborg won the Swedish Cup last week following a penalties victory over Djurgardens, and will now be keen to translate that success to their league campaign.

And just one loss from nine away from the Ullevi suggests that the Blavitt are more than capable of taking maximum points from this clash – and piling the pressure on league leaders Helsingborg, who currently sit two points ahead of them.

Seventeen goals scored in their last nine on the road indicates that much of the away side’s threat lies in the final third, and their influential attacker Tobias Hysen in particular will be looking to add to his current haul of five notches this campaign.

Hosts Osters go into this one in miserable form, and have lost their last seven straight outings in all competitions.

Half a dozen goals shipped in their last two games points to weaknesses in the home defence, and that will be something that the visitors look to take advantage of.

That leaves the newly promoted Vaxjo side sitting bottom of the table, and boss Andreas Thomsson will be keen for his charges to engineer a turnaround as soon as possible.

But a visit from a Goteborg side full of momentum is far from what the home side – already struggling to adjust to life in the top tier – would want at this point in the season, and I think that we will see Stahre’s side come up trumps at the Myresjohus Arena tonight.

Back IFK Goteborg @ 2.04

Osters are new to the Allsvenskan but have both scored and conceded in 3/5 home games so far this season. IFK Goteborg are old hands and both teams have scored in 12 of their last 20 away matches, including each of the most recent three.

Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 in Osters v IFK Goteborg

Milesey
conor 12 years ago

Thanks Milesey.
- Milesey 12 years ago
  
  Who is down to 9 in this game ? for OSTERS are now 2 up !
  
  Milesey
- Milesey 12 years ago
  
  SWEDEN: Allsvenskan
  
  Östers 2-0 IFK Göteborg
  
  BET365 INPLAY had OSTERS down to 9 men in the 50th Minute, but looking around now, seems no one was even sent off in this game…….. shocking by BET365, for the odds on IFK at 0 – 0 and OSTERS supposedly down to 9 men was 2/1.
  
  Milesey
Milesey 12 years ago

HORSE RACING TIPS

SATURDAY 1ST JUNE 2013
**********************

EPSOM DERBY
————

Guide to the runners……………

Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.

Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.

Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.

Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.

Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.

Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler’s Rock. Not beaten far in 1¼m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.

Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.

Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.

Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1¼m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.

Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn’t beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.

Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1¼m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.

Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.

********************

WILL HE STAY / WON’T HE STAY ?? Of cause he will stay, I’m with DAWN APPROACH all the way !

Best BETS…………..DAWN APPROACH WIN @ 11/8

PLACE CLAIMS……. MARS @ 16/1 / LIBERTARIAN @ 16/1

——————————————————

EPSOM

13:35 HIGH TROJA @ 5/1
Successful twice at 1m 2f on good to firm and good to soft ground. A winner at 25-1 at Newbury over 1m 2f (good to firm) on his latest outing last month, beating Hillstar by 1/2l. Has also won at Leicester this season.

15:15 FAIR VALUE @ 16/1
She has won four times from 5f to 6f on good to firm ground and on the all-weather. Third of 9 behind Duke Of Firenze beaten 1 3/4l at 15-2 on her latest outing at Goodwood over 5f (good) last month.

——————————————————-

LUCKY 15

14:55 MUSSELBURGH
GOOD SPEECH @ 7/1 ( NAP )
Successful at 1m 1f and 1m 2f on good to firm ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Lion Beacon when second of 5 at 13-2 on her latest outing at Beverley over 1m 4f (good to firm) last month.

16:30 MUSSELBURGH
JEDWARD @ 6/1
Successful twice at 5f on soft and yielding ground. Beaten 3 1/2l behind Towbee at 14-1 when seventh of 12 on her latest outing at Thirsk over 5f (soft) last month.

15:00 WORCESTER
HAVE YOU SEEN ME @ 11/2
He has won a hurdle race, a NH flat race and a chase from 2m to 2m 4f on good and good to soft ground, but last win was over two years ago. Third of 8 behind See U Bob beaten 7l at 9-2 on his latest outing in a chase at Stratford over 2m 7f (good to soft) in April.

21:10 NEWCASTLE
CROSS THE BOSS @ 4/1
Successful at 7f and 1m 1f on good ground and on the all-weather. Beaten a neck by Spavento when second of 15 at 3-1fav on his latest outing over this course and distance (good to firm) in April.

**************************

LINGFIELD – DOUBLE

18:55 LINGFIELD
SALOOMY @ 2/1
Successful twice at 6f on firm ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Chester Aristocrat when second of 13 at 4-1 on his latest outing at Haydock over 6f (firm) last month.

20:25 LINGFIELD
PLEMUM @ 9/4
Placed once in five starts. Beaten 1 1/2l by Mister Marcasite when second of 11 at 4-1 on his latest outing at Nottingham over 1m (good to soft) last month.

***************************

OUTSIDERS – PLACE and WIN

13:55 WORCESTER
WALCOT LATHYRUS @ 12/1
Yet to place in five starts. Third of 5 behind What A Warrior beaten 14l at 16-1 on his latest outing in a chase at Ludlow over 2m 4f (good to soft) in March.

18:40 NEWCASTLE
PELMANISM @ 10/1
Winner of seven races from 5f to 7f on good and good to soft ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Chester Aristocrat when second of 8 at 9-1 on his latest outing at Hamilton over 6f (good) last month.

*****************************

Another i saw at a big price is :

ONE LUCKY LADY / 17:40 WORCESTER

is at 8/1

ONE LUCKY LADY @ 8/1
She has won three hurdle races from 2m to 2m 4f on good and soft ground. A winner at 11-2 in a hurdle race at Uttoxeter over 2m 4f (good) on her latest outing last month, beating Lord Grantham by 1 3/4l.

Milesey
John 12 years ago

I think i’m going to side with Galileo Rock tomorrow, stamina will be needed and you say he has loads, we shall see :-)
- Milesey 12 years ago
  
  40/1 shot, have heard people talking up it’s chances, good value at 40/1, but hasn’t the class of every other runner…… Battle of Marengo was my original choice, till DAWN APPROACH blew the field away in the Guineas.
  
  Milesey

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