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IT was a fairly decent Bank Holiday day of racing for Milesey and here are his tips for Tuesday.
3.0 Leicester
PYTHAGOREAN (nap) 11/10 BET365
Won on his latest outing when 9-4 fav over this course and distance (good to firm) earlier this month, beating Dance With Dragons by 5l. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success.
LUCKY 15
3.30 Leicester
ASHDOWN LAD 3/1 LADBROKES
A winner at 1m 2f on good to firm ground. Beaten 3 1/2l by Meetings Man when second of 10 at 3-1 on his latest outing at Nottingham over 1m 2f (good) earlier this month.
4.40 Redcar
A J COOK 6/1 PADDYPOWER
Placed once in five starts. Beaten a head by Script when second of 7 at 11-10 fav on his latest outing at Hamilton over 6f (good to soft) earlier this month.
4.20 Newton Abbot
LORD OF THE DUNES 11/4 BET365
Won on his latest outing in a hurdle race when 6-4 fav at Taunton over 2m 3f (good to firm) earlier this month, beating Lady Bridget by 4l.
7.40 Yarmouth
HOT MUSTARD 4/1 BET365
Placed once in eight starts. Beaten 3/4l by Darkside when second of 16 at 8-1 on his latest outing at Redcar over 7f (good to soft) earlier this month, his only placing from 8 starts.
E/W DOUBLE
5.0 Leicester
KASTINI 10/1 BET365
Unplaced in all five starts. Finished 4 1/2l behind Chocolate Block when fourth of 10 at 8-1 on his latest outing at Lingfield over 1m 2f last month.
3.10 Redcar
HOT ROD MAMMA 16/1 LADBROKES
Winner of six races from 7f to 1m 2f on ground varying from good to firm to good to soft. Finished 7l behind Awake My Soul when sixth of 9 at 28-1 on her latest outing at Ripon over 1m 2f (good) earlier this month.
TREBLE
5.40 Yarmouth
LUCKY KRISTALE 1/1
8.10 Yarmouth
DECLAMATION 3/1
6.20 Lingfield
IF SO 13/8
ONE TO WATCH
5.50 Lingfield
JOYEUSE – half sister to FANKEL
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Hope Fixits packed plenty ammunition for the golf trip…3 dozen split new/in the box prov1x’s :-)
Guido, no pro v1’s for me, plain old Srixon or Titleist. Will probably send half of them into the sea.
half a dozen into the sea Paul?..ya only playing nine holes then? ;-) ;-) those Srixon 323? balls n NXT tour are decent enough. Ordered 20 prov1s on net the other night…pearl grade/few pen marks…£26 inc p&P…widna buy new golf balls again if i can help it/havent dont for years….ripoff
Guido, sorry I didn’t answer you. My neighbour came in and dragged me down the club for a couple of pints. I was kicking and screaming. Usually a get a dozen new balls off the pro for about £18 but the secret’s not to lose any.
EPSOM DASH PREVIEW – SATURDAY
—————————————————
Experienced Epsom-ers:
Ajjaadd – Improved, at the age of seven, when scoring over C&D last time, beating La Fortunata by a short-head. 4 lb rise incurred for that win seems fair and he is a must for any shortlist.
Captain Dunne – Has run in this race for the last four years, winning in 2011, and it was encouraging that he managed to perform at a level close to his best on his reappearance despite the majority of his stablemates needing their seasonal returns.
La Fortunata – Incredibly speedy mare who is yet to finish out of the frame in five starts over C&D, including on seasonal return when narrowly touched off by Ajjaadd. She was carried to the middle of the track by the eventual third that day and it is far from out of the question that she could reverse the form.
Fair Value – Posted her two best performances when tackling this C&D, which is unlikely to be a coincidence with him possessing an abundance of speed. Goodwood return, when third to Duke of Firenze, likely to have put her spot on for this and it would be folly to dismiss her.
Of that quartet, the first and second from a race over C&D in April, namely Ajjadd and La Fortunata, make most appeal. La Fortunata receives a 1 lb pull with her adversary and was arguably unlucky not to beat him that day, having been inconvenienced by the wandering Silvanus, and she will clearly well suited to the demands of this race.
Epsom Newbies:
Duke Of Firenze – A well-bred colt, being the first foal of Fillies’ Mile and Coronation Stakes winner Nannina, who has tasted success on three occasions to date. Latest success was a career best and, though he backed that up on the figures at York next time, he never really landed a blow and the suspicion is that he doesn’t want a test of speed quite this severe.
Smoothtalkinrascal – Has improved since joining David O’Meara over the winter, posting three excellent efforts, including wins at both Leicester and York, and it is possible to excuse his sole below-par performance at Hamilton. He is now 9 lb higher than when last contesting a handicap and were the ground to come up quick it would have to be a concern (as yet unraced on anything faster than good).
Mister Mannanan – Smart performer in his prime, landing a couple of listed races and competing in handicaps off marks in the low 100’s. Returned to form on his seasonal reappearance when winning at Beverley prior to shaping better than the bare result at Chester, and it could be worth forgiving his effort at York as things went against him having missed the break.
Normal Equilibrium – Built on the promise of an unlucky reappearance to win readily at Chester, beating Bispham Green by a length and a half. He remains a sprinter with plenty of potential and is certainly worthy of consideration under a 4 lb penalty.
The three-year-old’s hold a strong hand here with both Smoothtalkingrascal and Normal Equilibrium well up to making an impact in races of this ilk. However their relative inexperience could count against them, particularly at a track of this nature, so we are more interested in the Dandy Nicholls-trained Mister Mannanan, who is well treated if returning to anything like his best and is certainly worth a chance to prove that his York running was all wrong.
The pincer movement has been used to great effect throughout history, from the Battle of Cannae in 216 BC to right through to World War II, and we are going to bring the manoeuvre into the modern era by employing it here. The two “prongs” that make up our pincer are La Fortunata and Mister Manannan, one with experience at Epsom and one without, both of whom strike as being capable of making a sizeable impact in this race. Clearly much depends upon the draw (don’t let Stone Of Folca’s success last year from stall two fool you) but at this stage that is impossible to take into account and as ante-post bets they are as good as any.
Recommendations:
Back La Fortunata @22.0
Back Mister Manannan @ 20.0
Milesey
( betfair )
Stayed up late trying to get early price on Joyeuse went sleep woke up and hes odds on :( 8/11 shame
“” she “” JOYEUSE is half sister to FRANKEL, and is the big horse to come out of the cecil yard, this 2 year old filly should blow these rivals away today.
Milesey
3:00 LEICESTER
PYTHAGOREAN ( NAP )
********************
LUCKY 15
3:30 LEICESTER
ASHDOWN LAD
4:40 REDCAR
A J COOK
4:20 NEWTON ABBOT
LORD OF THE DUNES
7:40 YARMOUTH
HOT MUSTARD
********************
E/W DOUBLE
5:00 LEICESTER
KASTINI ** non runner **
**OUTSIDE SINGLE**
3:10 REDCAR
HOT ROD MAMMA
********************
TREBLE
5:40 YARMOUTH
LUCKY KRISTALE
8:10 YARMOUTH
DECLAMATION
6:20 LINGFIELD
IF SO
*************************************************************
ONE TO WATCH : JOYEUSE, 5:50 LINGFIELD, Half sister to FANKEL.
**************************************************************
Milesey
the five-furlong handicap at 16:10 at Redcar makes more appeal.
The trio at the head of the morning market are all relatively unexposed. Angelito made an encouraging return when a close second at Thirsk early in the month, though that was a ‘draw’ race, and it may be significant that the only one of the principals so far to have run well next time was the one drawn away from the action. Avon Breeze looked on the upgrade when winning at Ripon on her return, that just her fifth appearance. She could go on again, though today’s race is stronger and unless it rains cats and dogs – possible – the going will be much quicker than it was then. Above Standard is the most interesting of the trio, totally unexposed as a sprinter. However, he hasn’t been out since October and the market will give a big clue with regard to expectations of readiness.
Above Standard is ridden by Graham Gibbons, who could have taken the mount on Profile Star, having been on board for all but one of that horse’s last sixteen starts. On the face of it, Profile Star, an improved performer on the all-weather this year, hasn’t looked the same horse back on turf on his last two starts. However, the first of those came at Ripon, where he’d also run poorly the other time he’d been there, and the second – more encouraging – appearance was on heavy going, which surely didn’t suit him. With his trainer David Barron in fine form, it may be worth giving Profile Star one more chance on turf.
Back Profile Star @ 26.0 in the 16:10 at Redcar
Milesey
REDCAR PLACEPOT
—————————
14:10 – Those with experience in the opening maiden hardly set a fearsome standard so we’re going to side with a couple of appealing newcomers, namely Nelson’s Pride and Another Royal. The first mentioned, out of a two-year-old winner over six furlongs, represents trainer Kevin Ryan who, after a fairly slow start to the season, has served notice recently that his string could just be coming to hand and he had a juvenile winner at York on Saturday. Another Royal, a half-sister to the same connections’ Cocktail Charlie and Royal Rascal who were both successful as juveniles, makes plenty of appeal on paper and it would come as no surprise were she to take this on her racecourse bow.
14:40 – All Or Nothin will absolutely bolt up in this seller if he is anywhere near his best but he has looked lifeless on all three starts this term and is not really a Placepot horse. The best play is probably to side with two comparatively consistent performers in Bunce and Rawaafed, neither of whom are bombproof but seem likely to run their race and are up to hitting the places if at the peak of their powers.
15:10 – The Jason Ward-trained Eastward Ho has dropped to his last winning mark and, having stepped up on his reappearance when second at Musselburgh last time, he appeals as being an ideal starting point for all that he may be better at just short of this trip. We’re also going to stick in Outlaw Torn who looked unlucky not to win at Nottingham earlier this month, meeting trouble in running on several occasions, and is a must for any shortlist.
15:40 – This is a horrible race to assess from a Placepot perspective with little solid form on offer and the one particularly interesting performer, I’m Fraam Govan, an early non-runner. Aramist makes most appeal of those that remain, as he probably sets the standard and has run to a similar level on his two outings to date, but we’re also going to take a chance on Cranach, who showed ability when third on debut for Andre Fabre last year. He was bought for 10,000 gns and gelded by his new yard ahead of this reappearance and he wouldn’t have to be a superstar to make an impact in this.
16:10 – Avon Breeze has to be respected but she’s likely to take up a fairly hefty chunk of the Placepot pool so we’re going to take her on, with Cocktail Charlie and Jedward, in the hope of a minor coup. Cocktail Charlie hasn’t won since his racecourse debut but he is well handicapped and shaped with encouragement on his reappearance over C&D last week whilst Jedward looked to be coming to the boil in first time blinkers at Thirsk earlier this month and should go well, for all that he isn’t the most consistent.
16:40 – We need a banker somewhere in order to keep the lines in check, and we are presented an ideal opportunity in the final leg by the Michael Bell-trained Hartwright. The three-year-old has a largely progressive profile and got himself firmly back on track when scoring readily at Nottingham last time; he is likely to take some beating under a penalty.
Selections:
14:10 – 1, 8
14:40 – 5, 6
15:10 – 4, 13
15:40 – 1, 8
16:10 – 6, 12
16:40 – 1
= 32 lines
Milesey
All the big movers ahead of a day’s racing at Redcar, Leicester and Newton Abbot…
Redcar
14:40
Bunce 5.5 in to 3.5
15:10
Hail Bold Chief 6.37 out to 10.0
16:10
Avon Breeze 3.90 out to 5.1
Angelito 7.40 in to 5.3
17:10
Haywain 10.4 in to 6.2
Leicester
15:00
Pythagorean 2.12 in to 1.85
Majestic Moon 9.40 in to 7.40
15:30
Burnham 4.40 in to 3.40
16:00
Gold Top 3.9 out to 5.0
Kaiulani 5.70 in to 4.70
16:30
Ertijaal 4.0 in to 3.15
Toormore 6.60 in to 4.90
17:00
London Bridge 9.60 in to 5.10
17:35
Tahaf 2.72 out to 3.55
Newton Abbot
14:20
Looking Hopeful 5.80 in to 4.50
Keep The Cash 8.60 in to 6.60
14:50
American Spin 2.80 out to 3.60
Well Mett 6.40 in to 4.60
16:50
Sovereign Spirit 4.90 in to 3.80
Milesey
The Colin Tizzard-trained Lord of The Dunes appeared to win with plenty in hand at Taunton and he can supplement that success by taking the 16:20 at Newton Abbot. Always travelling strongly, Lord of The Dunes led on the bridle and was fully in command a fair way out at Taunton, confirming the promise of two earlier efforts in handicap company. Given the way he powered through that contest, today’s slightly shorter trip is unlikely to pose any problems and the unexposed five-year-old can take another step forward.
The well-bred Tahaf shaped better than the bare result on his handicap bow at Redcar and he can register his first success in the final race at Leicester (17:35). A half-brother to Hibaayeb, a winner of the one-and-a-half mile Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot, Tahaf was always likely to appreciate the step up to ten furlongs at Redcar, showing much improved form as he finished third. He was arguably unlucky not to finish closer to the front pair as he simply did too much too soon, making rapid headway three furlongs from home, and it is likely that this unexposed three-year-old has more to offer.
Yarmouth this evening, Michael Bell’s three-year-old Hot Mustard in the one-mile handicap at 19:40. Hot Mustard has yet to win but his latest effort when finishing second over seven furlongs at Redcar was the best he has managed so far and it probably sets the standard in this event. Considering how he appeared to go the wrong way as a two-year-old, it is encouraging that Hot Mustard has now strung together two solid efforts in succession and he should give a good account as long as he sees out the trip.
PATENT / TRIXIE
—————————-
Back Lord of The Dunes @ 3.5 in the 16:20 at Newton Abbot
Back Tahaf @ 2.84 in the 17:35 at Leicester
Back Hot Mustard @ 4.7 in the 19:40 at Yarmouth
Milesey
Profile Star and Hot Rod Mamma, E/W double maybe?
rather do 2 singles and the double, for like yesterday one may finish 1st and then the next 4th, so not even in the places, and for the double you get nothing, but if one is placed or wins then it’s profit time.
Milesey
NAP is in, nice one
On the line Ashdown nicks it
Ash down lad by a nose milesy nice one lets hope ur lucky 15 kicks on for us
Ashdown Lad just came in. 1 down 3 to go. Come on Milesey…
3:00 LEICESTER
PYTHAGOREAN ( NAP ) ** 1ST **
********************
LUCKY 15
3:30 LEICESTER
ASHDOWN LAD ** 1ST **
4:40 REDCAR
A J COOK ** 6TH **
4:20 NEWTON ABBOT
LORD OF THE DUNES ** 4TH **
7:40 YARMOUTH
HOT MUSTARD
********************
E/W DOUBLE
5:00 LEICESTER
KASTINI ** non runner **
**OUTSIDE SINGLE**
3:10 REDCAR
HOT ROD MAMMA ** 5TH **
********************
TREBLE
5:40 YARMOUTH
LUCKY KRISTALE
8:10 YARMOUTH
DECLAMATION
6:20 LINGFIELD
IF SO
*************************************************************
ONE TO WATCH : JOYEUSE, 5:50 LINGFIELD, Half sister to FANKEL.
**************************************************************
Back Profile Star @ 26.0 in the 16:10 at Redcar ** 7TH **
Milesey
TREBLE
5:40 YARMOUTH
LUCKY KRISTALE
8:10 YARMOUTH
DECLAMATION
6:20 LINGFIELD
IF SO
OR ADD………………….
7:40 YARMOUTH
HOT MUSTARD
…………………….FOR A LUCKY 15.
Milesey
Glad i didn’t do that double, did back Profile Star when the guy beside me backed Above Standard….this horse racing malarkey is tougher than i thought :-)
TREBLE
5:40 YARMOUTH
LUCKY KRISTALE ** 1ST **
8:10 YARMOUTH
DECLAMATION
6:20 LINGFIELD
IF SO
OR ADD………………….
7:40 YARMOUTH
HOT MUSTARD
…………………….FOR A LUCKY 15.
ONE TO WATCH
5.50 Lingfield
JOYEUSE ** 1ST **
Milesey
TREBLE
5:40 YARMOUTH
LUCKY KRISTALE ** 1ST **
8:10 YARMOUTH
DECLAMATION
6:20 LINGFIELD
IF SO ** 1ST **
OR ADD………………….
7:40 YARMOUTH
HOT MUSTARD
…………………….FOR A LUCKY 15.
Milesey
Some good info today and the hard work is appreciated. Thanks !