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I'M starting with Friday's live racing on Channel 4 and the 2.15 at York when Martin Chuzzlewit takes on Sir John Hawkwood and co in the 1m4f handicap.
The Stoute camp thought they had a well-handicapped horse on their hands with Martin Chuzzlewit last season but he ultimately proved disappointing. And the fact they tried the blinkers and visor suggested he wasn’t the most honest and straightforward. But sometimes a switch of scenery can work wonders with such characters. As can a gelding operation. And he has “enjoyed” both in the close season.
New trainer David Simcock’s recent acquisition is certainly on a fair mark if on his best behaviour and it has to be a positive his best form last season came over course and distance, when just touched by Kirthill here in August.
That came off a 1lb higher mark than Friday and if yesterday’s torrential downpour has really got into the ground – unfortunately that rain may have scuppered the chances of yesterday’s sole selection, Set The Trend, who has proven his ability to act in the soft as well and odds of around 10 for Martin Chuzzlewit would be very fair.
Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore could be in better luck with Pavlosk in the 3.15 but I was expecting her to be a much bigger price than looks likely from the early Betfair betting. But she is certainly well thought of.
The opening race on the card also looks very tricky indeed – though there is a big word for BELDALE MEMORY (1.45 York) – and I think anyone from seven have a fair shout in the 2.45, so just the one bet for me.
Recommended Bet
Back Martin Chuzzlewit at 10.0 or better (2.15, York)
4.40 Newmarket
AULD ALLIANCE 2/1 TOTESPORT
Placed in both starts. Third of 8 behind Waila beaten 3 1/2l at 10-3 on her latest outing at Sandown over 1m 2f (good) last month.
5.15 Newmarket
ROCKALONG 9/4 BET365
He has won three times from 7f to 1m on good ground and on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 10-3 fav at Ascot over 1m (good) earlier this month, beating Karaka Jack by 1/2l. Has also won at Kempton this season.
2.0 Newbury
THE LARK 7/2 BETVICTOR
Won on her latest outing when 7-2 fav at Doncaster over 1m (soft) in October last year, beating Kalispell by 1/2l.
3.05 Newbury
ORIEL (nap) 11/10 PADDYPOWER
Foaled 21 Feb. Dam won at 7f. Beaten 1 3/4l by Rizeena when second of 9 at 10-11f av on her racecourse debut at Ascot over 5f (good to firm) earlier this month.
3.40 Newbury
NINJAGO 7/4 WILLIAMHILL
He has won four times at 6f on ground varying from firm to soft and on the all-weather. A winner at 7-1 at Ascot over 6f (good) on his latest outing earlier this month, beating Intibaah by 1 1/2l.
6.30 Aintree
NIGHT IN MILAN 8/1 PADDYPOWER
Winner of three hurdle races and two chases from 2m 4f to 3m 1f on ground varying from good to heavy. Won on his latest outing in a chase when evens fav at Kelso over 2m 7f (good to soft) last month, beating Rudemeister by 6l.
8.15 Aintree
TULLYRAINE 12/1 BET365
He has won three hurdle races at 3m on ground varying from good to soft. A winner at 15-2 in a hurdle race at Bangor over 3m (soft) on his latest outing in February, beating Corrin Wood by 2 1/2l.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Milesey What chance do u think Sioux chieftain has 5pm York been following trainer Tim pitt for a while now noticed booked s de sousa good 14-1 win last time
BUCKSTAY met with some trouble-in-running when third at Pontefract on his return to action and given another chance off the same mark here, he could take some stopping. Sioux Chieftain returned with a win at Nottingham but is up 8lb for that effort, while Pivotal Silence is up 1lb for finishing within a length of the winner when third at Windsor. Mombasa made a satisfactory reappearance and could go on from that, while recent Kempton second Allnecessaryforce is also worthy of respect.
Mombasa is still open to further improvement over this sort of trip and can confirm the promise of his stable debut/reappearance and land this competitive event. Chocala and Rundell are others to consider.
Milesey
Beldale Memory in the 13:45 at York.
This filly created a favourable impression on debut when beating Beau Nash at Bath last month. She made all the running and pulled clear inside the final furlong to win with plenty in hand.
I think she is open to considerable improvement, and should go close at a fair price in this interesting event.
Milesey
YORK PLACEPOT
———————–
13:45 – Having made an early exit in a poor Placepot attempt on Wednesday I’m determined that the same will not happen today, so a trio of juveniles will be included in our perm. The first to make the cut is Beldale Memory, who impressed when making a winning debut ta Bath last month and rates as a useful prospect, whilst Hoku, who had excuses on debut when third to the reopposing Quatuor at Windsor, is also included. The final selection is the Richard Fahey-trained Heskin, who is bred to be useful and promises to achieve more with her debut experience under her belt having displayed plenty of greenness at Pontefract in April.
14:15 – Sir John Hawkwood almost certainly has more to offer, particularly at a mile and a half, but his somewhat up-and-down profile makes little appeal with regards to the Placepot so we shall instead side with Easy Terms and King’s Warrior. The first mentioned is a largely consistent mare who produced a career-best to win this race last year; she has shaped well in a couple of outings this term and seems sure to give a good account. King’s Warrior is lightly-raced for one of his age but clearly has plenty of ability, improving when a decisive winner of the John Smith’s Cup in July. His best form has come with cut in the ground so, with conditions on the Knavesmire in his favour, he is difficult to discount.
14:45 – With standard-setter, and likely banker, Cavalryman an absentee the one that makes most appeal in the Yorkshire Cup is French-raider Top Trip, trained by Francois Doumen. The four-year-old boasts plenty of smart form having landed a Group 2 last year and performed respectably in several quality races, particularly when fifth to Imperial Monarch in the Grand Prix de Paris; he will stay this far and is of definite interest.
15:15 – Pavlosk created a good impression when making a winning debut at Newbury last month but preference is for one with slightly more experience, namely Senafe. The three-year-old has improved with each outing, has form on rain-softened ground and made an encouraging return at Kempton last time, finishing second to subsequent French 1000 Guineas fourth Zurigha. Senafe is likely to improve again and can be selected as a banker with three places to aim at.
16:25 – Moviesta has to prove himself on this easier ground but he appeals as being an upwardly mobile sprinter and is one that we certainly want on side in the penultimate leg. His Doncaster success last month was particularly impressive, with the three-year-old travelling noticeable smoothly throughout, and he could improve further still. Also going into the perm is the Ed McMahon-trained Secret Look, whose best form has come on ground softer than good and was unlucky not to finish closer on his return at Nottingham last time.
16:25 – Rye House is a fairly obvious selection in the final leg, with the four-year-old expected to improve plenty this season, although given the nature of this race he doesn’t quite rate as banker material. It’s worth taking a chance on the Mick Easterby-trained Barren Brook as a spot of back-up, with the six-year-old well handicapped having performed below expectations more often than not last term. He ought to strip fitter for his seasonal bow at Redcar and could just sneak a place.
Selections:
13:45 – 2, 7, 8
14:15 – 2, 5
14:45 – 8
15:15 – 10
15:50 – 4, 8
16:25 – 2, 16
= 24 lines
Milesey
Selections:
13:45 – 2, 7, 8
14:15 – 2, 5
14:45 – 8
15:15 – 10
15:50 – 4, 8
16:25 – 2, 16
= 24 lines
Result:
13:45 – 2, 8, 6
14:15 – 1, 9, 8
14:45 – 5, 8
Milesey
place and quadpots at york, small stakes for an interest watching them on ch.4 later on
5
3
4, 7
8
15
12
Milesey, what u think chances of Kian’s delight in 7.05 aintree?
NATIVE GALLERY stands out in the 7:05 straight away, but it’s a 17 runner field, so in big fields anything can happen, and normally does, only takes 1 to blunder and to pull half the field down with it, anything is worth an e/w shout at a decent enough price, not won recently but when it did the ground was similar to todays, and off around the same handicap mark…. could be a decent e/w chance at the right price.
Milesey
NAP
The Richard Hannon-trained Oriel shaped with conspicuous promise on debut at Ascot last week and can register success in the 15:05 at Newbury. Having travelled as strongly as anything through the race, Oriel displayed signs of greenness when asked to make her challenge and wasn’t subjected to strong handling in the closing stages once it had become apparent she wasn’t going to reel in the leader. The daughter of Fastnet Rock – who, incidentally, was the first European runner for her highly-touted sire – should benefit enormously from that initial outing and ought to be difficult to beat today.
Back Oriel @ 1.87 in the 15:05 at Newbury
Milesey
E/W SHOT
————–
Last autumn, Zanetto finished runner-up in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton and Glass Office, who beat him that day, is also worth including in calculations this afternoon. Glass Office has won all three starts at six furlongs on polytrack and this clearly looks his optimum trip. Whether he is so effective on turf remains to be seen, but he shaped well on it on debut and his other two turf runs came over further. For his two previous starts this year, Glass Office was over unsuitable trips on tapeta at Meydan. Entries in the Diamond Jubilee and July Cup suggest connections still hold out the hope that Glass Office will make up into the smart sprinter his Kempton win promised.
Back Glass Office @ 17.0 15.40 at Newbury
Milesey
In the following beginners’ chase, Tom Horn, who showed useful form on his only start in this sphere, finishing second to the subsequent Grade 1-winning chaser Arvika Ligeoniere at Punchestown last May, can go one better and get off the mark over fences. He should benefit enormously from a spin over hurdles on his return at Fairyhouse last month and a double-figure price represents good value about Noel Meade’s charge.
Kilbeggan
Back Tom Horn in the 19:55 @ 9.6
Milesey
Reckon hughes will clean up at newbury 3plus winners mileset?
Cheers milesey, its the wee nana 1st birthday and its his namesake so will have a few quid ew on it today, thanks again
Have you a double for today milesey?thanks
DOUBLE
—————-
Oriel
3:05 Newbury
Ninjago
3:40 Newbury
ADD FOR A TREBLE………………..
Riposte
4:40 Newmarket
AND FOR A LUCKY 15……………………
Rumbury Grey
7:40 Aintree
Milesey
Cavalryman NR at York
just copy mine milesey and you’ll be onto a winner :) a just had a quick glance at the paper and picked trainers and form so maybe not haha biggest placepot I’ve had up was £450 once ended up getting £130 back for 20p placepot 30p quad so was well chuffed haha
Nice one ;)
Hope todays another winning day.
Milesey
Ive put my sleeing bag and coat on your double pick today so hope it comes in,couldnt put my house on it as I lost that a few weeks back on someones Danish picks.
ROTHESAY CHANCER 9.05 Hamilton is the nap won its race on wrong side of course last time hopefully recoup losses tonight.
Craig how do you place your bet on, ive never placed a place pot and all i see is
5
6
7 etc
What are you meaning ?
Yeah i would also like to know how to do these place pots etched I know how to do a lucky 15 etc but not a place pot and could someone explain what it actually is too please?
Number of the horse!!!!
Yea i gathered it was the number of the horse but how am i then supposed to know which race he means ? :/
its the slips in-shop, you get placepot and quadpot slips, there’s 6 legs or the 1st 6 races of that meeting for the placepot, just mark down the numbet of the horse for each leg/race for the 6 races and put stake at the bottom. the quadpots races 3, 4, 5 & 6. if all favs get a place then placepot won’t pay much but if there’s a few odds on favs out of the placing it can pay massive, like cheltenham festival av seen it paying £10, 000, if placepot pays £16 78 that’s what you get from £1 so 15.78/1 etc
The Tote Placepot is a bet, which asks you to nominate a horse (or horses) to finish in a relevant placed position in each of the first six races at any one meeting.
The rules for potentially successful placed horses are exactly the same that govern eachway bets. Your selection(s) must finish as listed below:
2-3-4 runnersóyou must identify the winning horse.
5-6-7 runnersósuccessful places apply to the first and second only.
8 runners or moreóyour selection(s) must fill any of the first three places.
Fourth place applies in handicap races with a minimum field of sixteen. The exception to the rule is the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. This race is not a handicap,
though the fourth place rule still applies.
In the event of a horse being withdrawn, your selection will automatically transfer to the favourite.
If there are joint (two) favourites or co (three or more) market leaders, your transferred
selection will apply to the horse with the lowest number in the race. As an example, your transferred selection would be on horse number five, if the co-favourites were numbers five, seven and eleven.
The Placepot dividend is declared to one pound, though clients can reduce the unit stake via permutations if they wish. Selecting two horses in difficult looking events is not only acceptable from the bookmaker’s perspective – it also makes good sense if you are trying to win a sizeable dividend.
You might like to try a perm of 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 on a race card, which looks
particularly competitive. Your chosen unit stake might be twenty pence, which in this
case would evaluate to a total commitment of £3.20 (16 bets x 20p). Unit stakes can be as low as ten pence a unit (at most bookmakers), or any amount up to the full unit of one pound. It is entirely your decision.
You are asked to make your selection(s) via the relevant race card number of the horse(s) you wish to select. Alternatively, you can simply nominate the favourite if you wish.
The Placepot is one of the value bets in racing. Just a £1.00 bet can return dividends in
excess of several hundred pounds! To win the placepot you have to select a horse to be
placed in each of the first six races at a meeting. As well as being great value it is a high ëinterestí bet as it gives you an interest in the first 6 races of a meeting, for just a small investment. The Tote runs Placepots, but most high street bookmakers will now accept placepot bets (anywhere where you see the Tote Direct stickers). Whether you bet most days or just on Saturdays, a Placepot can be a smart investment to make.
THE METHOD
You must decide which meeting to use each day. It is best to stick to just one meeting per day. If there is a choice of meetings then it is usually best not to use the main meeting as this quite often contains races with big, competitive fields, and it makes our job of finding horses to place more difficult. Conversely, the lowest grade meeting of the day, particularly in the flat season, also has its problems. The horses here are often ridden by the poorest standard of jockeys which makes analysis hard, especially in the transistion months between flat and national hunt seasons e.g March and November, when the weather and fitness can also play its part
.
So when presented with a choice of meetings pick the second biggest meeting of
the day to work on. If you are uncertain which one this is, then add together the prize
values of each race at each meeting. The one with the second highest total will be the one to use. Or you can select a meeting where the fields are not too large as to make selection nearly impossible, and on the other hand avoid the meeting where there are a lot of small fields which means you would have to select the winner each time.
Using your discretion and having selected our meeting, we now need to make our
selections. To capture the Placepot we are going to use a Placepot perm. This allows us
to pick more than one horse in each race. Most bookmakers now supply Placepot perm slips which make entering easier.
To win the pot we need to select a placed horse in each race. Obviously if we had
covered say, three horses in every race then our chances are greatly improved.
Unfortunately it’s not that easy! The more horses we cover in each race, the more costly our bet. To cover three in each of the six races would need 729 bets, i.e. 729 times our original stake.
• In Races of 2-7 runners where you must identify the winning horse or 2nd placed
horse (5-7 runners) I would suggest you make 2 selections especially in high
quality fields. Class B upwards.
• The best way to play the placepot is to try and oppose the fancied horses. You
may win on fewer occasions but the greater dividends make up for that and some.
Pool betting is about beating your fellow punters so avoid where possible the
obvious selection. Remember the point is not to pick the winner but to pick a
placed horse.
• Keep a running record of your placepot bets, see where you are successful and try
to show any trends in your betting, youíll be surprised how trends show in your
betting e.g How many favourites lose in 2-y-o races, and how many odds on
favourites win in group A races. Use your records as your knowledge base before
looking at form.
Milesey
The Tote
The Tote operates on a pool betting principle. What that means is that all the bets on a particular event are pooled together to create a sum of money. The tote then deducts a percentage from this pool, which is their profit. ( The actual percentage depends on the type of bet.) The remaining pool is then shared out amongst those punters who have successful bets. Therefore the less people that win the higher the return will be for those that do win.
The disadvantage of the Tote is that although indicative odds will be displayed, you don’t know until after the race exactly what odds you have got. Another disadvantage particularly in the smaller pool bets is that if you place a large bet into the tote pool, you will scew the odds so that if you win you will end up winning a lot less than if you had placed the bet with a traditional bookmaker. Below is an explanation and some tips on the types of bet available on the Tote.
Scoop 6
This bet is usually every Saturday, although it is sometimes held in the week at one of the big meetings such as Cheltenham. There are 6 races all of which will be televised, you have three ways to win:
Win Fund – Pick the six winners and you win the Win and Place fund dividends and get a shot at the big money bonus Fund the following Saturday.
Place Fund – If you have a horse placed in all six races you will win the place dividend.
Bonus Fund – There will be a nominated bonus race. If you are a winner of the Win Fund the previous week, then you get to select one horse in the bonus race, and pick up the Bonus Fund which is often hundreds of thousands of pounds if you win.
Tote Jackpot
The Jackpot pool rolls over until it is won. Therefore when there is a large rollover the bet becomes very good value despite the deduction by the tote. Each day there is one nominated Jackpot meeting, to win this bet you need to select the winner of the first six races at the Totejackpot meeting.
Tote Placepot
This bet can reward the adventurous. The dividend can run into thousands if an odds on favourite is unplaced. It is available at all UK meetings. To win you simply have to pick a horse to be placed in each of the first 6 races. Its harder than it sounds!!
Win Bet
Simply a bet on which horse will win a race. Win bets on outsiders can return spectacular dividends. Mr Mcoldricks win at Cheltenham return a win dividend of �240 on the tote, whereas he was only 66-1 with the bookmakers. If you are backing a favourite you are probably better off placing the bet with a bookmaker.
Place Bet
A bet that a horse will be placed. The number of places paid varies depending on the type of race and number of runners.
Less than 4 runners – Win Only
5 – 7 runners – First 2
8+ runners – First 3
16+ runners in Handicaps only – First 4
Quadpot
Pick a horse to be placed in each of the four totequadpot races, which are usually races 3,4,5 and 6 on the card. This has not really been very successful with pool totals sometimes as little as a few hundred pounds. In all honesty you are probably better off doing an Each way accumulator on the last four races rather than doing the quadpot.
Trifecta
Pick the horses to finish 1st 2nd and 3rd in the correct order. The trifecta is available on selected races of 8 or more runners. If you pick four horses you will have 24 chances to win and your total stake is 24 times your stake unit.
Exacta
Pick the horses to finish 1st and 2nd in the correct order. A permutation exacta allows you to pick three or more horses to finish 1st and 2nd in any order and increases your chances of winning. If you pick three horses you will have six chances to win and your total stake is six times your stake unit. The table below shows you how many bets equates to how many selections.
Tote Swinger
In races of six or more declared runners, toteswinger bets are accepted for selecting two horses to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in any order. Toteswinger only involves horses deemed to have filled the first three places, even in handicap races of 16 or more runners. If the number of runners in a nominated toteswinger race is subsequently reduced to only four or five, dividends will only be paid in respect of 1st and 2nd placed horses (including reversed 2nd and 1st). If the number of runners in a nominated toteswinger race falls to less than four, the pool will be declared void and stakes refunded.
Milesey
How to Bet (and Win) The Placepot
Winning The Placepot
Winning the placepot bet is a great feeling. Not only does the average placepot dividend amount to over £500, and frequently go into the thousands, but the feeling it produces when you ‘have’ it is incredible.
And in that feeling when you ‘have’ it is one of the biggest drawbacks of betting this kind of wager. I’ll explain what I mean in a moment, but for now, let’s quickly recap what the placepot is and how it works.
What is a Placepot?
A placepot is a pool bet operated by the tote, where the player is required to select a placed horse in six consecutive races (usually the first six on the card at any given meeting).
Place positions vary depending on number of runners and type of races, but typically we’re trying to get a horse to finish first, second or third in each of the six races.
As I say, this is a pool bet, which means all of the money wagered is placed into a central betting pool, from which a deduction is made (28%) to cover admin but mostly to put money back into the sport.
The remaining 72% of money in the pool is divided equally between the number of winning players. So, for instance, suppose the pool of money was £100,000, and there were 72 winning tickets.
The dividend (always declared to a £1 unit stake, though players can play multiples of as little as 5p) would be calculated as follows:
£100,000 – 28% /72 (because of the 28% deduction and the fact that we have 72 winners in this example).
In other words, £100,000 – £28,000 / 72 = £72,000 / 72 = £1,000
So the dividend in this case is £1,000. Make sense so far? Good!
Now of course you might only ‘have’ 20p of it, or you might have £12 of it, depending on how you staked your bet.
Alternatively, you might very well have none of it, depending on how you picked horses in your bet!
So that’s what a placepot is: a six leg place wager where you get back a return based on how many of your fellow placepot wagerers also correctly selected six placed horses.
How to pick your horses in a placepot
This is one of two places I think a lot of people make mistakes when betting the placepot. Sometimes people – and I’ve been guilty of this many times myself – try to be too ‘cute’ in their selections.
They might put in the long odds on favourite, and also a 16/1 who they quite like, just in case.
There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but… it is clear that there is far more likelihood of the 2/5 favourite placing than the 16/1 chance. So it must be equally clear that both horses ought to be ‘weighted’ differently in the bet. That people don’t do this is almost certainly THE most common mistake in placepot (and jackpot and scoop6 and exacta and tricast) betting. More on that in a moment.
So, back to how to pick horses for a placepot. Obviously, we’re picking horses that we need to place. This may mean that we actually select horses differently from the one we might pick to win the race.
Many horses have form figures like ’4011816′. In other words, they either win or run nowhere if things don’t go their way. If I was playing a jackpot (I never do, though I love the US Pick 3, a more achievable mini-jackpot), I’d definitely have this horse in the mix.
But in a placepot, I’d think twice, because he’s as likely to finish nowhere as he is to place, and there may be more reliable place wagers.
A good example of this is in the 1.15 race at Cheltenham today (12th November 2010), where Theatrical Moment has form figures of 44116P-
He has two wins to his name, but they were sandwiched in between a number of unplaced performances. (Clearly, there is a lot more to the selection process than that, but these horses take an inappropriate amount of the pool money quite frequently).
The other problem with contrarian views – or trying to beat the odds on favourite out of the frame – is that generally you’ll be wrong. But you don’t want to miss out on the relatively rare occasions that you’re right! So, what to do?
Well, Steven Crist in his excellent book ‘Exotic Betting’, has a solution to this problem. [Exotic bets are what these type of wagers are referred to in the US, and they take FAR more of the money bet than straight win, and place bets.]
Crist suggests you break the horses down in each race, according to how likely you think they are to get the required placing. He talks of dividing them into four categories:
A – horses you feel have a very high chance of being placed
B – horses you feel have a reasonable chance of being placed, and who represent value (i.e. who might be ‘dark’ horses)
C – horses who might just enjoy a revival today based on some element (course, distance, going, jockey, etc) coming in its favour, and who represent value (i.e. who might be ‘dark’ horses)
X – horses who either have no chance, or are terrible value to place at their expected odds, or on whom you have no strong opinion
As you can see, these gradings take into account two elements: your ability to read a race (reflected in terms of what you like) and the market’s relative ability to read a race (reflected in terms of where you see value horses, or under-priced horses)
How to bet your horses in a placepot
The good news is we’ve managed to discard many of the runners in most of the races. The bad news is that if we tried to perm all the runners in our A, B and C lists, we’d still end up with 4 x 3 x 5 x 5 x 2 x 3 = 1800 lines.
Even if we did just 10p per line, that comes to £180 and, more worryingly still, we’d need some luck to get big priced horses hit all place positions in one, and possibly two races at least in order to get back more than the £180 we’d invested.
But, by weighting our opinions according to our perception of the likelihood of those horses making the frame, we can bet the horses in a commensurately weighted fashion.
In other words, if we can’t get at least four of our A horses in the frame, we don’t really deserve to win the bet, because we don’t have a strong enough and / or smart enough opinion of the sextet of contests that form the placepot that day. Besides, getting four out of six on the placepot is easy, right?!
So, if we accept that we should have at least four of our A-team selections come in, then we can write out multiple tickets where we’ll collect if any of the following scenarios occur:
– A in all six races
– A in five races, and a B or C in the other
– A in four races, and B in the other two
This gives us lines that look like this, from our example above:
AAAAAA 2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
ABAAAA 2x2x2x4x2x1 = 64 bets
AABAAA 2x1x1x4x2x1 = 16 bets
AAAAAB 2x1x2x4x2x2 = 64 bets
CAAAAA 2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
AACAAA 2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
AAACAA 2x1x2x1x2x1 = 8 bets
ABBAAA 2x2x1x4x2x1 = 32 bets
ABAAAB 2x2x2x4x2x2 = 128 bets
AABAAB 2x1x1x4x2x2 = 32 bets
So we now have ten different placepot perms we’re going to strike, and we could stake them differently as well. In this case, for simplicity, we won’t bother to do that.
The total number of lines comes down to just 440, or less than a quarter of the initial number of plays for ‘full coverage’.
We have lots of chances to win and, because it’s a placepot bet where we can get more than one horse placed, we still have lots of chances to double – or even triple – up.
So, our previous 1800 x 10p bet, which would cost us £180, can now be re-struck at a cost of just £44 (440 x 10p), or we could ‘go large’ and play 40p lines for £176 – still four quid cheaper than the initial permutation.
In order to exemplify this further, I am (stupidly) going to attempt this on today’s Cheltenham placepot… Drum roll…
——A ———————— B——————– C———————- X
1- 4,6,9——————- 3,10————————————– 1,2,5,7,8,11,12
2- 2———————— 1,4 —————————————– 3,5,6,7,8
3- 1———————– 4,7 ——————- 2,6—————– 3,5,8,9,11,12
4- 1,5—————————————————————— 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10
5- 11,12,17,21———- 9,18—————————————— THE REST
6- 7,8——————– 3,6—————————————– 1,2,4,5,9,10
Again, we have to get four A’s at least for a score. Just eight tickets this time, as follows:
AAAAAA 3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 48 bets
AABAAA 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AAAAAB 3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 48 bets
CAAAAA 2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 32 bets
ACAAAA 3 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AACAAA 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AAAACA 3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 24 bets
AABAAB 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
The total is simply perming all A, B and C selections would be a whopping 5 x 3 x 5 x 2 x 6 x 4 = 3,600 lines. Even for ten pence a line, that’s a scarcely affordable £360 which is a lot of money to recoup even if you ‘have’ the placepot at the end of the day.
Granted it is still not the most affordable of placepot bets even with the ‘four A’s’ rule in play. But at least we’ve managed to massage that figure down to a more palatable (and affordable) 536 lines which, at the aforementioned 10p a turn, is £53.60. That’s just under 15% of our full coverage, and we have very good chances of getting through at least the second and last races.
Initially, I played one each in the B and C slots in the cross country race, but it’s VERY hard to envisage both Garde Champetre and Sizing Australia being out of the first three. So I’ve used that as the banker play in the ticket.
Milesey
Here’s today’s market movers from the afternoon meetings at Newbury, Newmarket and York…
York
13:45
Beldale Memory 6.2 in to 4.1
Quator 3.4 out to 5.3
Heskin 16.5 in to 11.0
14:15
Easy Terms 12.5 in to 8.4
Brockwell 18.5 in to 14.5
Rios Rosanna 19.5 in to 14.0
14:45
Top Trip 5.9 in to 4.4
Joshua Tree 4.48 out to 6.4
Quiz Mistress 8.0 in to 6.0
Guarantee 9.33 in to 6.6
15:15
Pavlosk 3.3 out to 4.0
Annies Fortune 11.5 in to 9.2
15:50
Dutch Masterpiece 7.2 in to 5.2
Lady Ibrox 23.0 in to 17.5
16:25
Awake My Soul 6.8 out to 7.8
War Poet 23.33 in to 13.5
Prophecy 28.19 in to 16.5
17:00
Mombasa 6.6 in to 5.1
Newbury
13:30
Championship 2.96 in to 2.54
Ambience 8.8 in to 6.6
14:00
Winsili 2.58 out to 3.05
Cruck Realta 8.8 in to 7.6
15:05
Oriel 2.06 in to 1.74
Suite 3.85 out to 6.0
15:40
Sound Of Guns 6.25 in to 4.1
Intibaah 6.82 out to 10.0
16:15
Nichols Canyon 4.8 in to 3.4
16:50
Semeen 5.0 in to 3.8
Buster Brown 9.8 in to 7.2
Newmarket
14:25
Corncockle 7.53 in to 5.4
Baileys Celebrate 5.08 out to 7.4
14:55
Llaregyb 8.6 in to 5.2
East Texas Red 16.5 in to 11.0
15:30
Justice Day 1.35 out to 1.62
Split Rock 3.6 out to 4.6
17:15
Rockalong 2.85 out to 3.25
Border Legend 10.06 in to 7.2
Ascription 12.93 in to 9.2
17:50
Flynns Boy 6.98 in to 5.1
Milesey
We start at Newbury where in the 14:00 Oaks Trial there has been a marked drift on Winsili from 2.6 out to 3.1. She did run well at the end of last season and stayed on in good style over a mile off a slow pace however she looks poor value. She should just about get the trip however it’s not guaranteed and in the first time hood she’ll surely be held up to help her to settle. Her two market rivals Valtina and The Lark both look to have some promise and The Lark’s trainer won this race last year so it seems likely he’ll be targeting it again this year and have her cherry ripe.
We go to York now where in the 16:25 there has been a serious move for War Poet who has been backed from 19.16 in to 11.0 for David O’Meara. He likes soft ground and his last win came under identical circumstances off just 2lbs higher. He’s gone well fresh in the past and the booking of David Bergin is a massive boost with him taking a more than useful 5lbs off. It’s always tough in these big fields at York but he’s shown himself a classy individual with the manner of his wins and the long straight is sure to play to his strengths.
Staying at York and in the following race Mombasa has been well supported from 6.6 in to 5.3. He’s another one who’ll enjoy the ground and this trip should be one he’ll relish. He made his seasonal reappearance at Leicester and stayed on really well behind a useful sort over two furlongs less. Although a bit ambitious he’s actually still in the Derby which shows that he’s thought of slightly better than a 78 rated handicapper. When added to the fact the trainer has been in cracking form of late there’s a lot going for him and he’s surely a worthy favourite.
Recommended Bets
Lay Winsili @ 3.1 14:00 Newbury
Back War Poet @ 11.0 16:25 York
Back Mombasa @ 5.3 17:00 York
Milesey
milesey had you got good double at york or newmarket
BELDALE MEMORY (1.45 York)
Martin Chuzzlewit (2:15 York )
—————————————————–
4.40 Newmarket
AULD ALLIANCE
5.15 Newmarket
ROCKALONG
—————————————————–
DOUBLE
—————-
Oriel
3:05 Newbury
Ninjago
3:40 Newbury
ADD FOR A TREBLE………………..
Riposte
4:40 Newmarket
AND FOR A LUCKY 15……………………
Rumbury Grey
7:40 Aintree
Milesey
cheers milesey i will be on them :)
beldale memory but i think sir john hawkwood will win i know its gone up 6lb for that win but been but up to 1m4f so its got to be the main one and its hard to see it getting beat
If it’s gone up in weights it will show more with a step up in trip, if it was 5f, 6f, weight rise normally doesn’t really matter, and normally isn’t that much anyway, for they aren’t going to win by 10 lengths over 5f, normally a length, a head win………… carrying more weight for longer is the problem, horses at 5f, 6f normally carry most of their weight in their muscle anyway.
Milesey
BELDALE MEMORY (1.45 York)
** WINNER ** WINNER **
Milesey
BELDALE MEMORY (1.45 York)
** WINNER ** WINNER **
Milesey
Respect your tips and agree with your Nap tip but I wouldn’t go with Ninjago on a double,feel sound of guns has the beating of your tip and is being backed in to do so.
A safer option for a double in my opinion may be Sweet my lord 7.20 Kilbeggan.
good tip milesey mate memery had in double with hawkwood thanks milesey
Who does everyone fancy at 4.05 Newmarket? Haylaman?
Milesey, I’ve just started following your place pot picks and is it just me or have you been really unlucky ? Yet again so far today it’s just the one race that’s letting us down !! Does your place pot picks come in very often ?
Simon.
They are harder then most people think to get up, but i have had quite a few, but i only do 10p line stakes for abit of fun, if i feel confident for the fields are weak etc…. i tend to up my stakes, but when the fields are like today, and quite equal, all have a chance, anything can run on from the back, then it’s quite difficult.
Milesey
I’ve always thought they are a tough bet but a good earner, bit frustrating because so far this week you’ve made it look winnable without actually getting one up !! I’ll keep following them as you’re getting close. Thanks for the effort.
Simon.
They are winnable if a*seholes ride properly, but this week it seems the jockeys are riding for the owners and not the punters, Richard Hughes is doing it again today, he knows he can’t win the race, so doesn’t really ride the horse for the line either, therefore keeping the handicap down.
Milesey
Is that not frowned upon- not trying to get placed for the punters. Surely the Stewards would notice such things.
milesey i think ryan moore will win the jockey championship who you think and hes had a great day again
spot on milesey we can say richard had shocker and on that fav 2/5 he was on he was trying to put the horse up other horses ass but ryan will win the championship flat season
hope your newmarket 4.40 tip wins i had it
Gutted !! Just that 2nd race in the placepot letting us down. Top tipping though. Cheers.
that 5th race must’ve killed a few placepots by the look of the results, unlucky wi yours milesey but mines was down the pan 1st race haha it’s they results you want tho and have the 8/1 winner to get the big payouts. £117 todays paid at York but that’s good considering 4 favs and other 2 races were 2nd fav placed
My placepot tactic is simply pick 1-3-or 6 in each race. I usually do two of those numbers in four races- and a single number in the other. That covers 16 bets x the stake- usually 50p for me. Watch the results tonight and see how often 1-3 or 6 appears. Even so- there’s always one race in a placepot that throws up a shocker.
Get that race sorted and you are home and dry.
6.30 Aintree
NIGHT IN MILAN 8/1 Paddy Power
** 2ND **
Milesey
TONIGHTS DOGS – ROMFORD
—————————————-
TREBLE
———–
Garryglass Rodge 21:24
Head Iton Tom 22:11
Droopys move 22:26
Milesey
Gotta laugh at Lord Cleggs placepot tactics think i will stick to picking horses i fancy lol.