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WHAT a day Tuesday was for Milesey. If there was a race he didn't tip the winner I missed it.
His short-priced nap came up among others and he's out to repeat his success on Wednesday. Here are his tips:
Lingfield 3.30
YOU DA ONE (nap)
Andrew Balding’s inmate should win this maiden event with any amount in hand and while beaten at cramped odds at Kempton last time he’s improving for each visit to the racecourse and he’ll have enough class if running up to his official rating of 80.
YOU DA ONE found Milly’s Gift too strong when odds-on for his Polytrack debut at Kempton but it’s difficult imagining Andrew Balding’s gelding will come up short against only two rivals here given he showed plenty of promise on Turf last year.
Wetherby 3.55
UPSWING
It’s hard to avoid the claims of UPSWING. Following a couple of respectable efforts in novice hurdles at the start of the year, Jonjo O’Neill’s five-year-old scored cosily on his handicap debut over 2m 1f at Carlisle and, with more improvement no doubt in the locker, a 7lb penalty shouldn’t be enough to scupper the follow-up plans. Won on his latest outing in a hurdle race when 11-10 fav at Carlisle over 2m 1f (heavy) earlier this month, beating Rupert Bear by 3/4l. Carries a 7lb penalty for that success.
Southwell 3.45
HANNAHS TURN
Turned in an impressive display when scoring over 6f here last time. She also has winning form over the minimum trip. HANNAHS TURN remains unbeaten on Fibresand after winning for the third time at this track last week. Given she scored by six lengths, it’s unlikely a penalty will prevent Chris Dwyer’s filly from going in again and she gets the vote.
She has won three times from 5f to 6f on fibresand. Won on her latest outing when 1-2fav here over 6f earlier this month, beating Sylvia Pankhurst by 6l. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success. Has won three times here this season.
Lingfield 2.0
BLUE NOODLES
Winner of five races from 6f to 1m including three wins on polytrack. Third of nine behind Flow Chart beaten 1l at 4-1 on his latest outing at Wolverhampton over 6f earlier this month.
Southwell 2.10
JACK DAWKINS
It might be worth taking a punt on JACK DAWKINS who continues to give a good account on fibresand. He twice had the beating of the previously progressive Goldmadchen earlier in the month and lost little in defeat when second to prolific plater Stand Guard latest. Winner of seven races from 1m to 1m 4f including four wins on fibresand. Beaten 1 1/2l by Stand Guard when second of three at 11-2 on his latest outing over this course and distance earlier this month. Has won twice at Southwell this season.
GambleAware
PLACE and WIN
————–
SPECIAL MIX in the 14.20 at Wetherby. This gelding finished fifth to Runswick Royal at Sedgefield last month. He kept on well in the closing stages, but failed to deliver a challenge behind the game winner.
He appears to be improving with racing and could run well at a big price in this maiden hurdle. At present he is trading at 9.4 on the exchange.
Milesey ( betfair )
Wednesday, Southwell 15:10
————————–
Kung Hei Fat Choy has won 4 AW handicaps at up to 1m with blinkers fitted since July. Gone off boil recently but more promise back on turf last time.
Caldercruix’s last 2 wins have come here, including 7f event earlier this month. Ran well when third in better race than this on Saturday and big player given record here.
Trois Vallees is a lightly-raced gelding who made a winning start for James Tate at Wolverhampton in November. That form hasn’t worked out, however, and no better than sixth in 3 runs since. Hood applied.
Caledonia Prince’s 5 wins have come here but below par in hat-trick bid last time. Given a short break since and chances are that he’ll bounce back
Our Ivor was quickly down in the weights after a light 2012 campaign and has taken advantage in no uncertain terms, landing rapid-fire C&D hat-trick last month. Excuses last time and sure to play big role.
Copperwood has won 6 times in the course of a busy 2012, but rather in and out this winter, and difficult to know what to expect.
Flying Pickets is a six-time course winner over 7f but only one of those have come in handicaps. Held form well since but yet to win at this trip.
Mutafaakir showed a fair level of ability for John Gosden but did look awkward on occasions and no immediate promise starting out for new yard last backend.
1. Caldercruix
2. Our Ivor
3. Caledonia Prince
Caldercruix ran a cracker here on Saturday and is narrowly preferred to fellow course specialists Our Ivor and Caledonia Prince.
Milesey ( betfair )
Placepot permutation from Southwell on Wednesday…
14:10- Right Stuff holds the strongest form credentials and his victory against the prolific winner La Estrella on his penultimate start at Lingfield would give him an obvious chance. However, Right Stuff may not be one rely on as he was a disappointment last time and is unproven on this surface, so we will instead put in fibresand-specialist Jack Dawkins, who has been performing with admirable consistency of late and looks sure to give a good account.
14:40- Combustible has improved with each run and got close to a rival rated significantly higher when going down by a length here on Saturday. With her proven effectiveness on fibresand, Combustible looks like a banker proposition to finish in the first two places and ensure we progress to the third leg.
15:10- It is difficult to overlook the claims of Caldercruix on the back of a creditable effort in better company here on Saturday and he has to be kept onside. His record suggests that he handles fibresand exceptionally well and he should be very difficult to keep out of the frame. He is, however, likely to command a large proportion of the ‘pot’ so it may be worth including another Southwell specialist in the shape of Our Ivor. Michael Appleby’s charge had rattled up a C&D hat-trick prior to disappointing on his most recent outing, but he had legitimate excuses on that occasion and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back.
15:45- Usually in a four-runner race the safe tactic would be to include all of the contenders, ensuring progress to the next leg. However, with a view to keeping the number of lines down, we will take a chance, only including Hannahs Turn and Miako. The former is the obvious selection, her flawless record at Southwell making her impossible to leave out, while Miako may be capable of better on this surface and remains with potential.
16:20- You will rarely see a horse as unlucky in defeat as Elusive Hawk was on Monday, carried wide at Lingfield by a loose horse before charging home late on. However, he is evidently in good form, coming into that race on the back of a five-length romp at Kempton, and this three-time C&D winner needs to be included. Once again, though, it could be worth including a second string given the likely impact on the pool should the favourite miss out, and Rio Cobolo looks like the best option. Dandy Nicholls’ horse has been performing consistently of late, more so than the form figures would imply, and he is proven on this unique surface.
16:55- Apache Rising’s best efforts have all come on fibresand and, though denied the hat-trick last time, he produced his best effort yet when finishing third to Mixed Message, arguably slightly unlucky as his rivals edged into him in the closing stages. Luv U Whatever boasts similarly strong claims on this surface, but Apache Rising is likely to be carrying fewer lines so he just gets the nod in the final leg.
Selections:
14:10- 1
14:40- 6
15:10- 2, 5
15:45- 2, 4
16:20- 1, 9
16:55- 3
= 8 lines
Milesey ( betfair )
On His Own shortens for Grand National glory
———————————————
ON HIS OWN, the likely Grand National mount of Ruby Walsh following the shock news stablemate and fellow leading contender Prince De Beauchene will miss the race, is now a general 7-1 shot to win the world’s most famous race.
Trainer Willie Mullins revealed late on Tuesday night Prince De Beauchene would not run in the National for the second year running due to a stress fracture, which has fuelled speculation Walsh will partner On His Own.
Like Prince De Beauchene, On His Own runs in the gold and black silks of Graham and Andrea Wylie and he hardened as National favourite on Wednesday morning.
Available at 8-1 a day earlier, the nine-year-old, who fell when going well in last year’s National, was clipped a point by most firms.
Betfred went 7-1 (from 8) and spokesman Andrew Griffiths said: “Prince De Beauchene had been a leading Grand National fancy ever since missing last year’s renewal and was one of the best backed horses in the market.
“The news of his injury leaves Ruby Walsh all set to partner On His Own so we’ve cut him to 7-1. He ticks all the boxes and his odds could tumble further.”
Coral made the same change and also trimmed other challengers.
“Of course with ante-post betting where there are losers there are winners and if you are holding ante-post tickets on other horses like On His Own, Sea Bass or Cappa Bleu, all their odds have now shortened as a result of Prince De Beauchene’s defection,” said their representative Simon Clare.
Walsh, who won the National on Hedgehunter in 2005 and Papillon in 2000, also has the option of riding for Paul Nicholls at Aintree or his father Ted’s Seabass, but it seems likely he will side with On His Own, whom he was set to be on in last year’s marathon until getting injured just before the race.
Milesey ( betfair )
The annual battle for the Trainers Championship takes place at Yarmouth on Wednesday evening and is live on Sky Sports.
19:34 Puppies
After a stack of undesirable draws, rails hugging Golden Wonder finally gets the red jacket and with Glenpadden Post (trap two) moving ‘very wide’ in his trial, Charlie Lister’s runner rates one of the night’s best bets and can get the ‘man to beat’ off to the perfect start. Underground Paul, who improved bundles for a second look round here last week – going quicker than the selection – is also well drawn with Garryglass Rodge likely to cut in. Monmore Puppy Derby winner Cluxtons Free should not be under-estimated.
19:49 Standard
Droopys Reason hasn’t raced since January but has posted a brace of good trials and given his previous useful form over the CD is a confident selection to score the full 10 points for lively outsider Seamus Cahill ,despite a slightly wider draw than would be ideal. Jaytee Hellcat ran a respectable second behind the sensational Ballymac Eske in the Juvenile but worryingly went very wide in his trial here. Eclipse finalist Hather George hasn’t raced since January but has been notching up decent trials and has enough pace to overcome a wider than ideal draw.
20:04 Bitches
If last week’s Wimbledon win is anything to go by, Bridge Ruth looks a bitch to follow this season and should be good enough to claim maximum points for Mark Wallis after a satisfactory trial here the other week. Silverview Pinky will have few complaints about her trap one draw, especially with Glenpadden Lake likely to allow her plenty of room. Jaytee Jules is badly drawn despite a reasonable trial.
20:19 Stayers
Fear Emoski makes her six bend debut but if her latest trial is anything to go by – just eight spots outside the track-record – she will take all the beating and can add more points to Lister’s tally. Blonde Reagan was disappointing at Wimbledon, has won only one of his last six races and was beaten here on his only previous CD run last autumn. Boherna Bridge is unlikely to appreciate the inside draw (zero from six in trap one).
20:34 Sprint
Prolific winning sprinter Lil Risky is back in his preferred trap one berth but has lost his lost five races over the CD although did clock a fast time here from trap one last autumn. Farloe Barracuda, despite a rare slip up last time, has been winning races for fun at Sheffield and earns the vote for Barrie Draper judged on his trial effort. Scurry winner Drumna Ice has not raced since December and has to prove himself again.
20:49 Stayers
The unexpected decision to step Farloe Tango up to six bends by Charlie Lister should be taken as a positive and last year’s Eclipse third can provide his handler with another winner. Goa Girl hasn’t won for ages but did score here on her only previous visit last September, while Planning won races here as a grader at the start of his career and could hardly have a better draw. Top class marathon bitch Aero Rebel would be a big threat on her recent Romford 750m form.
21:04 Dogs
Despite a failure to reach the East Anglian Derby final, Loughteen Blanco still boasts useful form over the CD and his consistency (he has reached the first two in his last eleven races) can pay dividends for Seamus Cahill in what could be the battle of the night with Ayamzaman, who looked back to his very best at Romford last Friday. Alien Planet trialled in well but his form tailed off last backend. Ballycowen Dave has better form here than his trials might otherwise suggest.
21:19 Standard
If Charlie Lister hasn’t tied up victory by this stage, Lemon Pluto should make sure of it despite the lack of a run since January after a much improved trial last week. Bubbly Lucky is improving rapidly and remains interesting although his draw outside Kokoro could be fraught with danger. Guinness Dusty was an East Anglian Derby finalist and gained his first win in ages at Hove the other week.
Recommended Bets
Back Golden Wonder 19:34
Back Droopys Reason 19:49
Back Bridge Ruth 20:04
Back Loughteen Blanco 21:04
Back Lemon Pluto 21:19
Milesey ( Betfair )
Fear Emoski (20:19)
Has looked a star stayer in the making given some solid four-bend form, but nevertheless the price looks wrong. Yes he has scope, but up against seasoned stayers such as Bubbly Swallow and Blonde Reagan he really will have to be the real deal.
Farloe Barracuda (20:34)
Has some decent sprint form on the card but now has a serious test against a regular sprint winner Lil Risky. No doubt he’s a serious contender for four-bend races with that early pace, but we can take him on given he’s favoured in the betting but up against a top two-bender.
Recommended Bets
Lay Fear Emoski @ 2.4 in the 20:19 at Yarmouth
Lay Farloe Barracuda @ 2.6 in the 20:34 at Yarmouth
Milesey ( betfair )
The nag to avoid today is TEEN AGER 2.00 at lingfield cause am on it :)
nice winner for you there John, well done mate ;) ;)
Milesey
MARKET MOVERS
————–
Lingfield
13:30
Athletic 3.0 in to 2.22
14:00
Blue Deer 18.0 in to 14.0
14:30
Silly Billy 5.5 in to 4.7
Athwaab 7.3 out to 10.0
15:00
Artful Lady 3.4 out to 4.6
Sweet Ovation 7.8 in to 5.7
Pharoh Jake 16.59 in to 11.5
15:30
You Da One 1.2 in to 1.06
16:05
Dorothy’s Dancing 2.7 out to 3.65
Rylee Mooch 6.2 in to 4.8
Billy Red 5.8 out to 7.2
16:40
Bright Strike 1.4 in to 1.17
17:15
Kent Ragstone 1.61 out to 1.81
Southwell
14:10
Right Stuff 2.22 out to 2.64
Jack Dawkins 4.4 in to 3.25
14:40
Free Island 1.8 out to 2.24
Combustible 3.78 in to 2.76
15:10
Caldercruix 3.4 in to 2.82
Kung Hei Fat Choy 7.2 in to 5.7
Our Ivor 4.8 out to 8.2
15:45
Hannahs Turn 1.64 out to 1.91
Miako 5.6 in to 3.85
16:20
Elusive Hawk 2.22 out to 2.58
Rio Cobolo 6.6 in to 5.4
Ace Master 15.5 in to 8.0
16:55
Apache Rising 5.2 in to 3.85
Tight Knit 9.0 in to 6.4
17:30
Al Amaan 6.8 in to 4.0
Wetherby
14:20
Firth Of The Clyde 4.7 in to 3.45
Ueueteotl 3.45 out to 4.0
Potomac 9.0 in to 5.6
Discover Bay 3.9 out to 8.2
Special Mix 14.0 in to 9.8
14:50
Eyre Apparent 3.05 out to 4.7
Doberman 11.5 in to 8.6
Global Flyer 12.5 in to 10.0
15:20
Westward Point 4.6 in to 3.55
Neptune Equester 4.6 in to 3.35
My Idea 19.5 in to 14.0
16:30
Categorical 2.26 out to 3.15
Bertie Milan 5.6 out to 8.0
Rebel Swing 12.5 in to 7.6
17:05
Silentplan 5.0 in to 4.2
Rene Le Roi 14.5 in to 9.8
Milesey ( betfair )
NON RUNNER
Wetherby 3.55
UPSWING
Milesey
homeboy 2.30 and you da one get on.
homeboy 2.30 winnerrrrrrrr
SOUTHWELL TREBLE
—————-
15:10 CALDERCRUIX
15:45 HANNAHS TURN
16:20 ELUSIVE HAWK
Milesey ( betfair )
HORSE RACING RESULTS
———————
Lingfield 2.0
BLUE NOODLES ** 7TH **
Southwell 2.10
JACK DAWKINS ** 2ND **
PLACE and WIN
SPECIAL MIX in the 14.20 at Wetherby ** 6TH **
SOUTHWELL 3.10
1. Caldercruix ** 6TH **
2. Our Ivor ** 5TH **
3. Caledonia Prince ** 3RD **
Lingfield 3.30
YOU DA ONE (nap) ** WIN **
Southwell 3.45
HANNAHS TURN ** WIN **
Wetherby 3.55
UPSWING ** N/R **
SOUTHWELL TREBLE
—————-
15:10 CALDERCRUIX ** 6TH **
15:45 HANNAHS TURN ** WIN **
16:20 ELUSIVE HAWK ** WIN **
SOUTHWELL PLACEPOT
Selections:
14:10- 1
14:40- 6
15:10- 2, 5
15:45- 2, 4
16:20- 1, 9
16:55- 3
= 8 lines
RESULTS
14.10 3,1,4
14.40 6,1,7
15.10 3,6,4
15.45 4,1,2
16.20 1,10,2
16.55
Milesey ( betfair )
Milesey, mixed day but another nap.
hahaha you should think so with a 1/20 horse is a 3 horse race
4.40 Lingfield Park
BRIGHT STRIKE ( NAP )
Have another then AC if your not happy with that ;) ;)
Milesey
……………… and that goes in, just for you AC ;) ;)
Milesey
4.55 SOUTHWELL
APACHE RISING
Milesey ( betfair )
Easy win there at 3.71, APACHE RISING……….. good job, and thats me done for the day ;) ;)
Milesey
Oooo Your missing the point of my post … Out of all winners you had today, Mr F congratulates you on a 1/20 horse … I’m not complaining you have won me a few bob today son, keep it up
AC, you’re not getting it either. I simply pointed his nap had come up, everyone on this site knows I don’t follow racing.
I had 2 NAPS in the end, and another tonight when the scottish football is on ;) ;) hahahahahaha
Milesey
Ya Da One is the Kabbaas of today Milesey :-)
Ante-post favourite Hunter’s Light will break from stall four in Saturday’s Dubai World Cup at Meydan…
The Saeed bin Suroor-trained five-year-old was a Group 2 winner at the track in February and sealed his place at the head of the market when winning the third round of the Maktoum Challenge earlier this month.
He is one of three runners in the Godolphin blue for the 10-furlong race, with last year’s winner Monterosso going for glory again from stall 10 and African Story in 11.
Capponi will start from stall five as he bids to go one place better than his second in 2012, while Kassiano is widest of all in 13 to complete the teams for Saeed bin Suroor and Mahmood al Zarooni.
Top American mare Royal Delta enjoyed no luck at all in finishing ninth last year but the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner will be hoping for better fortunes this time in stall eight.
Fellow American runner Dullahan is in stall two, while there are three British runners, headed by Marco Botti’s Planteur in stall seven.
Hong Kong Vase winner Red Cadeaux will be in stall two for Ed Dunlop, with Andrew Balding’s Side Glance in six.
Animal Kingdom, winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby, will be in stall 12, with the Andre Fabre-trained Meandre in nine and outsider Treasure Beach (one) rounding out the field.
———————————–
The world’s richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan, has attracted a star-studded 13-runner field.
Saturday’s race…
The obvious starting point when previewing the Dubai World Cup is Godolphin, who have owned the winner five times since the race’s inception in 1996, with Saeed bin Suroor (who also trained Hamdan Al Maktoum’s 1999 winner of the race Almutawakel) responsible for four of those, and new boy on the block, Mahmood Al Zarooni, getting in on the act last year by saddling the first two home, namely Monterosso and Capponi.
It’s no surprise that the boys in blue are heavily represented again this time around, with three running in their colours, namely African Story, Hunter’s Light and Monterosso, and bin Suroor and Al Zarooni will also be represented by Kassiano and Capponi respectively, who have both sported the famous blue in the past but will be in different colours for this race.
The most prominent in the betting out of those five, and indeed favourite or joint-favourite with most bookmakers, is Hunter’s Light, the winner of rounds two and three of the Maktoum Challenge at the Carnival this year.
Godolphin’s last five winners in this race had contested at least one round of the Maktoum Challenge prior to World Cup success and Hunter’s Light couldn’t have been any more impressive in disposing of Surfer in February and his progressive stablemate Kassiano more recently, looking every inch World Cup material.
Hunter’s Light’s record on an artificial surface stands at four from five (only defeat came on debut) and he fully deserves to be towards the head of the market.
Few could have envisaged Kassiano as a likely runner in this at the start of the Carnival, when rated only 106 by Timeform. He has been the most progressive handicapper in Dubai this year, however, improving into a very smart performer in winning three times and then upping his game again when stepped up to pattern company behind Hunter’s Light. He didn’t get the clearest of runs through that day, so can be rated as finishing a clearer second, and there will be worse outsiders than him.
Last year’s winner, Monterosso, is obviously worth a mention as he bids to become the first horse to retain his crown. He will again go into the race on the back of just one run which came in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge when a long way behind Hunter’s Light.
It’s fair to say Monterosso didn’t show anywhere near as much as he had done when prepping a year ago, however, and on that basis he can’t really be supported with any confidence, mindful that he also disappointed on his sole outing in Britain after last year’s success.
A stronger contender could be African Story, who took well to the tapeta surface at last year’s Carnival, winning three times, including the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night. He demonstrated his well-being when making a successful return over the same trip when landing the Burj Nahaar at Meydan earlier in the month.
High-class form over a mile, as well as an impressive course record (four wins from five starts), brings African Story into the reckoning, though the trip is very much an unknown stepping up beyond a mile for the first time.
The other dominant force in the race has traditionally been the American contingent, with eight winners down the years, though it’s fair to say they haven’t been anything like as successful since the race switched from dirt to tapeta ahead of the 2010 renewal. Gio Ponti’s fourth placing that year is the best an American raider has managed on the new surface, with Game On Dude and Royal Delta both noticeable disappointments twelve months ago.
This year’s challenge from the States looks strong, on paper at least, with the aforementioned Royal Delta, as well as Animal Kingdom and Dullahan all declared to run.
Royal Delta will at least return with that experience under her belt, and she has clearly improved again since then, her defeat of My Miss Aurelia in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic one of the highlights on Breeders’ Cup night. She has confirmed her well-being with a recent win at Gulfstream Park and it seems reasonable to assume she will fare much better this time around.
Dullahan disappointed on turf at the Breeder’s Cup but had shown high-class form on a synthetic surface earlier in the year when winning the TVG Pacific Classic. The Dale Romans-trained colt has had a pipe-opener at Meydan this year, finishing well down the field behind African Story in the Burj Nahaar. That performance hardly enhanced his credentials, but there were potential excuses. The shorter trip is the obvious one, whilst it was reported he got very worked up on the way over to the track.
Dullahan’s form in America stands up to the closest scrutiny and whilst it’s fair to say he isn’t the most consistent, he is more than capable of getting involved if on a ‘going day’.
The only Kentucky Derby winner to run in the Dubai World Cup was Silver Charm back in 1998 and Animal Kingdom will bid to complete that notable double when he lines up twelve months later than originally intended.
Animal Kingdom was due in Dubai last year only to suffer an injury and he’s been limited to just three starts in the last nineteen months, all on turf, winning an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream before finishing second to Wise Dan in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (when staying on strongly after meeting trouble) and to Point of Entry in a Grade 1 back at Gulfstream in February. The surface is obviously an unknown, though he does have form on polytrack, whilst his style of racing (tends to be held up) could leave him vulnerable given how Meydan has ridden this year.
Mike de Kock’s sole contender is last year’s Sheema Classic fourth Treasure Beach, who has plenty to find with the main protagonists on Timeform ratings (only sixth behind Hunter’s Light on sole run this year) and essentially isn’t good enough, and similar comments apply to the three British-trained runners, Planteur, Side Glance and Red Cadeaux.
That leaves the French-trained Meandre, who is a triple Group 1 winner over a mile and a half on turf but may find things happening a bit quick for him in this.
As things stand, Hunter’s Light makes plenty of appeal. He is fit and firing, clearly relishes this surface and has done nothing wrong in winning both his starts this year. With doubts of one sort or another over the American-trained runners, as well as last year’s winner Monterosso, Kassiano makes as much appeal as anything of those at longer odds.
Recommendations:
Back Hunter’s Light @ 5.6
Back Kassiano @ 11.5
Milesey ( Betfair )
Whats your thoughts on BALTHAZAR KING in the grand national milesey?
Balthazar King seems to have been around for ages but is still only nine-years-old. Most cross country horses would struggle in a race as tough as the Grand National but there is a case for suggesting that Balthazar King could still be feasibly handicapped to run a big race at Aintree. Despite being campaigned primarily in cross country races since late 2011, Balthazar King won an extremely competitive class two handicap at the October meeting at Cheltenham in October 2012. Philip Hobbs’ gelding beat the likes of Bradley, Hold On Julio and Galaxy Rock from a mark of 139 where his jumping was faultless. The official handicapper has Balthazar King on a seven pound higher mark than that win for the 2013 Grand National but that seems a perfectly acceptable rating given the quality of his last victory. Balthazar King has since been beaten when favourite for the November cross country race at Cheltenham but the ground would not have been ideal for him that day as he prefers genuinely good ground. Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson do not have the greatest of records in the National but this sound jumping gelding could go some way to improving their record.
Milesey ( betfair )
Looks a good each way bet to me then 25//1 with betvictor, they are paying 6 places, best odds guaranteed & non runner no bet on the ante post
GRAND NATIONAL 2013
——————-
The 2013 Grand National tapes rise at 4.15pm on April 6th, and so it’s about time we previewed the runners and tried to tip you a winner!
let’s take a look at the 2013 Grand National field.
First up, let’s look at the key Aintree Grand National Trends.
Aintree Grand National 2013 Primary Trends
Let’s first consider the nature of the Grand National. Not for nothing is it the apple of the once-a-year-punters’ eye. Despite all the mollycoddling of external pressure groups and the commensurate changes to the fences and race distance, the National remains a race in extremis.
It’s four and a half miles long (less a hundred metres this year, if you’ll pardon my mixed measurements). That’s longer than any other race in the British calendar.
It has forty runners. Forty! That’s more than any other in the British calendar.
It requires horse and jockey to traverse thirty fences. Thirty! That’s more than any other in the British calendar, bar the cross-country course at Cheltenham.
Yes, folks, this is a proper test. Consequently, it will come as no surprise that it requires a horse with certain attributes which align with the aforementioned rigours.
Specifically, the following…
It makes sense that if a horse is to jump thirty fences, it should be a good jumper. Duh! Supporting this is the fact that fifteen of the last sixteen winners had fallen, unseated or been brought down a maximum of twice. Last year’s winner, Neptune Collonges, was the exception.
We’ll exclude any horse with three or more ‘fall related’ non-completions (or FUB’s)
Further, over such a long distance, it stands to reason that those with proven stamina should prevail. To this end, every winner since the year dot (or at least since 1988, when I got bored of looking) had won over at least three miles.
Most horses will pass that test, so it’s not that much of an eliminator. But eight of the last nine winners have won beyond three miles one furlong, and that extra distance trips up plenty of aspirants. You might think it’s immaterial, but beyond three miles is ‘stout stayer’ territory, and that’s the type of horse which will obviously be suited to a race over four and a half miles (or thereabouts).
We’ll also exclude any horse which has yet to win beyond 3m1f
Finally on the ‘blindingly obvious’ front, you need a nimble and/or lucky horse to win in a field of forty. Although the actual figure is a tad arbitrary, nine of the last ten winners had previously won in a field of at least fourteen runners. Here again, the exception was Neptune Collonges.
One swallow does not a summer make, and nor does it a logical trend break. So…
Let’s exclude any horse which has failed to win in a field of fourteen or more.
Grand National 2013 hope, On His Own
Those are what I call primary trends and, whilst dear old Neptune Collonges buggered things up a bit last year, they would have isolated eight of the last ten Grand National winners.
This year, they eliminate the following of the current 57 remaining entries:
Always Waining, Any Currency, Auroras Encore, Becauseicouldntsee, Big Fella Thanks, Bob Lingo, Bostons Angel, Chicago Grey, Cloudy Lane, Colbert Station, Forpadydeplasterer, Gullible Gordon, Harry The Viking, Join Together, Joncol, Lost Glory, Magnanimity, Major Malarkey, Mortimers Cross, Mr Moonshine, Mumbles Head, Ninetieth Minute, On His Own, Oscar Time, Pearlysteps, Pentiffic, Prince De Beauchene (gulp), Quel Esprit, Quinz, Quiscover Fontaine, Rare Bob, Roberto Goldback, Romanesco, Saint Are, Seabass, Soll, Swing Bill, Tarquinius, Tatenen, The Rainbow Hunter, Tofino Bay, Viking Blond, Weird Al, and Wyck Hill.
Crikey! That’s 45 of the 57 entries excluded!
Now, of course, that doesn’t mean one of the above can’t win. It merely means they will be trying to do something pretty logical that most winners in the past decade had done.
**
Aintree Grand National 2013 Secondary Trends
Let’s consider some secondary trends, and see if we’re any wiser thereafter…
All bar one of the last sixteen winners was rated 138 or higher and, more recently, the last four winners have been rated 148 or higher. This latter element is material, because it has become official policy to try to give those classy horses at the very top of the weights some sort of a winning chance. Since than conscious decision was made in 2009, the winners have been rated on average 152.
Compare that with the average of the previous four year, which was 139.75. The previous ten years (i.e. those four plus the six before that) averaged 139.4.
That’s almost a stone difference in weight-carrying performance and, whilst it might prove dangerous to be definitive, I’ll definitely be siding with the classier, higher rated, and higher weighted horses.
Look towards the top of the National weights in what is becoming a class-favouring contest.
In the last sixteen years, fourteen of the winners have been aged between nine and eleven years old. Only one eight year old (Bindaree) and one twelve year old (Amberleigh House) have been able to prevail. Those outside of the nine to eleven year old range accounted for 32.05% of runners, but just 12.5% of winners.
The first four home were nine to eleven; the first TEN home in 2011 were in this group; the first three home in 2010 were too; as were the first four home in 2009. Indeed, in the last sixteen years, of those exactly 200 runners aged eight or less, or twelve or more, just thirteen have made the frame (1-2-3-4)… and eleven of those were eight year olds.
Forget twelve year olds and up, and seven year olds (only Saint Are representing that group this time).
And we’ll place our faith in the nine to eleven year old camp.
Now a quick word on chasing experience. Every winner since Miinehoma in 1994 had had at least ten chase starts. That makes sense, right? I mean, this is a pretty robust examination of a horse’s jumping, and running, ability. In fact, even Miinehoma had had nine starts over fences, and the National was his tenth!
Since 1999 (a period for which I have ready access to data), 104 horses have tried and failed to win the Grand National with less than ten chase starts under their belts. And only five of them even placed.
Wyck Hill is notably inexperienced this time around, with just seven chase starts in his record.
Exclude any horse with less than ten chase starts to his name.
Of our remaining twelve horses, the following are excluded by secondary trends:
Backstage, Ballabriggs, Beshabar, Cappa Bleu, Imperial Commander, Poker De Sivola, and Treacle.
Put another way, we’re left with a shortlist of five:
Across The Bay (40/1), Balthazar King (33/1), Lion Na Bearnai (50/1), Sunnyhillboy(20/1), and What A Friend (50/1).
Those are all 20/1 or bigger at time of writing, which is quite tempting. But we should consider things more holistically before putting pen to betting slip paper.
**
Aintree Grand National 2013 Form Preview
Reading the form for the Grand National is generally a bit like nailing jelly to a wall. There are very few races run over the National fences and, if your horse does happen to run well over the specific test, he gets whacked by the discretionary handicapping policy in place now. Of course, if your horse hasn’t run over the National fences, it’s in for a surprise and it may not be the type that likes surprises!
The discretionary handicapping policy is worth touching on for a second, because it has had two profound – and almost polarically different – bearings on recent results in this race.
Firstly, in 2003, the official handicapper was given latitude to account for what is known as ‘the Aintree Factor’. That is, to award a horse more weight if it has proven itself to be well suited to the unique Grand National fence challenge. The upshot of this was that Amberleigh House was given a higher official rating for the Grand National than he’d have had to bear in a ‘normal’ handicap chase.
Without that higher rating, he wouldn’t have made the cut for the final forty in 2003, when he finished third to Montys Pass. He came back the following year, with more weight, and won the race.
For around five or six years, the impact of the discretionary handicapping policy was merely to ensure those horses lurking on the lower fringes of the weights were allowed to run if their previous National fence form indicated they should be. But it also seemed to have a bearing on the average weight carried to victory.
In the six years from 1997 to 2002, the average winning weight carried was 10-05. In the six years from 2003 to 2008, the average winning weight carried was 10-09. And in the four years since then, the average winning weight carried was 11-03.
This is because, more recently, not only has Grand National fence form been accounted for at the bottom of the weights, but also something called ‘compression’ has been employed to give those classier horses at the top of the ratings a better chance.
Let’s put that another way: between 1984 and 2004, only two horses carried eleven stone or more to victory. And they carried exactly eleven stone, and a single pound more respectively. In the eight years since then, five of the eight winners have carried eleven stone or more, including lead-luggers with 11-05 and 11-06 in the last three years.
One final way of putting this: last year, the highest two weighted horses to complete the race finished first and sixth; in 2011, the top weight finished third; in 2010, two of the top four weighted horses to finish were placed first and second; and in 2009, all of the first four home were carrying eleven stone or more, including the 100/1 winner!
In summary, the better horses have a much better chance.
2013 Grand National hope, Across The Bay
Let’s start from the top then, and the top of the weights to be precise. Imperial Commander, a former Gold Cup winner no less, heads the weights with 11-10 and he must be the horse with the highest former rating of any recent renewal, having been afforded a 185 for his 2010 Gold Cup win. Since then, he’s not been seen in public a great deal, just four times to be precise.
He unshipped on the main Aintree track directly after his Gold Cup win; then came back to win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in November 2010, before an abortive attempt at defending his Gold Cup crown in March 2011. And that was it, until the end of January this year, when the Commander returned with a fine second in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham in heavy ground.
He finished tired there, and I think the extended break since – by-passing the Gold Cup – was a wise move. If he lines up in the Grand National, off a mark of just 158, he must have a great chance. If you want to back him now, make sure to use a non-runner no bet bookie, as he’s far from a certain runner.
Next in the weights list is Paul Nicholls’ What A Friend, himself a dual Grade 1 winner (including on the main Aintree chase strip) and fourth in the 2011 Gold Cup. He’s a stone below his rating just a year ago and, still only a ten year old, he ticks a lot – indeed all – of the trends boxes for Grand National 2013.
He was seventh in last year’s Betfred Bowl Chase here, and has had just the one run since then, when a plugging on eighth in the Racing Plus Chase over Kempton’s slick three miles. What A Friend actually ran in the 2011 National, where he travelled and jumped really well until running out of steam, and being pulled up.
He was only eight then, and had also had a hard race in the Gold Cup less than three weeks previously. This time, he’s older and stronger, and fresher. Whether he’s in the same form is a good question, but at odds around the 50/1 mark (best odds guaranteed, non runner no bet), it’s easy to take a bit of a chance.
Weird Al is next, and although he’s in the right hands – now trained by Grand National winning trainer in his own right, and ‘Son of Ginger’, Donald McCain – he seems to have problems. Specifically, he’s pulled up in three of his last five runs, and was well back when falling four out in last year’s National. He’s just too inconsistent to have any faith in, for me.
Slated to carry 11-07 is the first of Willie Mullins’ four remaining entries, Prince De Beauchene. This chap hasn’t taken a lot of racing in recent times – just four starts in the last two years – but he’s still managed to win the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase last year, and run up in the same contest this year. He was odds on when beaten there, but that wouldn’t put me off.
Whilst I have a slight niggle about his stamina for the four and half miles of the Grand National, the rest of his form looks spot on. He’s classy, jumps well, has run well in big fields (including when winning here in a Listed contest two years ago), and has scope to improve again. But three miles and a furlong is fully eleven furlongs (or 30%) shorter than he’s got to run here, and he may or may not last home.
Of course, that comment is true for a lot of his rivals as well. It’s just that they’re generally far bigger prices than the best priced 12/1 Prince de Beauchene is. At the odds, then, he’s not for me.
I’m readily putting a line through the next trio – Quel Esprit (not a good enough jumper, doubtful stayer, inexperienced); Big Fella Thanks (thoroughly exposed, and finished tamely in last two Nationals – though completed both times); and, Roberto Goldback (bad jumper, very exposed).
Seabass comes next, and he was a game third last year, for Katie Walsh, who was bidding to be the first lady to ride the National winner. He came with a chance to win it there, but didn’t quite seem to get home. He’s five pounds more weight to carry this time, which should ensure that he’ll again fall short, though perhaps not by much. Best of luck to Katie, all the same. She’s a cracking jockey.
On 11-04 is the wonderful Ballabriggs, winner of the 2011 Grand National and sixth last year off top weight. If the ground is good or good to soft, this fellow could make the frame despite now being twelve years old. He’s got the same handicap mark as when winning two years back, and fully ten pounds less than last year. It’s his last realistic chance of winning, and he’s likely to be a good bit shorter than 25/1 on the day.
The next trio are all of interest to me one way or another. First in is Sunnyhillboy, the victim of the closest call in National history last year when beaten a nose by the rallying Neptune Collonges. He was five lengths clear of the third, and another seven clear of the fourth there, and he’s got another ten pounds on his back for that. With stamina and track alacrity proven, it might not be enough of a burden to keep him out of the frame again.
Next is Teaforthree. Despite being a second season chaser, he’s already had ten starts over the big obstacles, and they include a win in the Cheltenham four miler, and a second place in the Welsh National when spotting the winner sixteen pounds. He goes on any ground, jumps very well for one so inexperienced, and the only slight reservation I have is whether he’s quite good enough in a very classy renewal. He could go close.
The third of this trio is Across The Bay, also trained by Son of Ginger. A very classy hurdler (third to Big Buck’s in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle here last year, and winner of a Grade 2 hurdle last time), his chasing career has been a bit stop-start. He was good enough to win a big field beginners’ chase on debut, and then ran second in a Grade 2 novice chase that year. But his next three chase runs all ended with him pulling up, despite a big field handicap hurdle win in their midst.
Since reverting to chasing this season, he’s added an easy score in a Class 3 handicap, and another Grade 2 silver medal on the chase course here. True, he was a fairly disappointing seventh of 17 in the Welsh National, but that in heavy ground and carrying top weight of 11-12. He’s in great nick, and I think he has a much better chance than his 40/1 odds imply.
I find it hard to make a case for too many of the rest, given that they’re probably not going to be classy enough to win this year’s renewal, but a couple of others to note might be Lion Na Bearnai, Balthazar King, Bostons Angel, Cappa Bleu and Poker De Sivola.
Sunnyhillboy to go one better in Grand National 2013?
Lion Na Bearnai is a lightly raced chaser and good enough to win last year’s Irish Grand National. In just one run since then, he pulled up behind Bobs Worth in the Hennessy back on 1st December and hasn’t been seen since. If he turned up, fitness would need to be taken on trust. But he’s proven stamina, is a good jumper, and handles a big field. He’s been given a racing weight here too. He’s 50/1 non-runner no bet.
Balthazar King needs good ground. If he gets it, he too has proven stamina, having won the cross country race at last year’s Festival. Forced out of this year’s renewal, for which he shared favouritism, due to deep ground, he’ll come here a fit and fresh horse. With jumping unlikely to be an issue, the question will be whether he’s quite good enough to challenge the very best. I suspect he probably isn’t, but he ought to give followers a decent run for their money, as long as the word ‘good’ appears in the going description.
Bostons Angel is another from the cross country ranks. But it wasn’t always that way with this one. No indeed. As recently as the 2011 Festival, he was winning the RSA Chase and, while that probably left its mark on him, he’s re-emerged as a staying chaser of some ability this season. Stamina ought not to be a problem, nor will the big field, and if he can rediscover the form of two years ago, he’d have more than a squeak at around 66/1.
Cappa Bleu doesn’t take much racing. In fact, he’s only had nine chase starts, and only six runs in his last two seasons. That’s less than any winner in the last sixteen years, but he ran fourth last year – staying on – and on soft ground he could run into the frame again. He acts on quicker, but I just don’t think he’d be quite fast/fit enough on that.
And finally, lurking right at the bottom of the weights, is Poker De Sivola. If any horse can win from the lower depths of the field now, it might be him. Still only a ten year old, he’s been brilliantly campaigned by Ferdy Murphy to win both a Cheltenham four miler (2010) and a Bet365 Gold Cup (2011). Since then, he’s been nursed back to a decent rating in two starts late last year.
If he shows up, and if the ground is good, he goes well enough fresh to merit a throwaway interest at 66/1 or so.
**
Aintree Grand National 2013 Tips
Obviously, this is a tricky race, where you need a horse with class, courage, stamina, and jumping finesse. My shortlist comprises:
Imperial Commander, What A Friend, Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, and Across The Bay.
The first two are not certain to run, so it may be prudent to bet with a non-runner no bet (NRNB) bookmaker. The other three should all line up, and should all give us a run for our money.
Grand National 2013 selection: Across The Bay 33/1 bet365s
Grand National 2013 selection: Ballabriggs 28/1 Sportingbet
Grand National 2013 selection: What A Friend 50/1 Bet365
Grand National 2013 selection: Sunnyhillboy 25/1 Coral
Grand National 2013 selection: Imperial Commander 33/1 Stan James
Best Aintree Grand National 2013 Bookmaker Offers
If you’re interested in placing a bet – and why wouldn’t you be?! – then my advice is as follows:
– if betting more than five days before the race, i.e. April 1st or earlier, then use a Non Runner No Bet bookie, unless you’re sure your horse will run. The bookmakers which are currently non-runner no bet are Bet365, BetVictor and Stan James (SJ from 9am Saturday 23rd March).
Bet365 have the best offer currently as they are non-runner no bet, plus they’re paying a quarter the odds on five places, AND they’re best odds guaranteed. That means if your horse doesn’t run you’ll get your cash back. If your horse is fifth and you bet each way, you’ll get a return. And if your horse goes off at a bigger price than you’ve taken, you’ll get paid at the bigger price.
If Bet365 are best price on the horse you fancy, you should ABSOLUTELY bet it with them! They’ll also give you up to £200 in free bets when you sign up. Click the link below if you’ve not already got a Bet365 account.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
7-1
On His Own was part of the consignment of horses leading owner Graham Wylie sent over to Willie Mullins following the retirement of Howard Johnson. The son of Presenting obviously had impressed in his homework before the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first run for his new stable and was backed into a very short 7/2 favourite. On His Own never really fired in that race and was eventually brought down at the second last when well out of contention. A month later he tried again in the 43k Thyestes Chase at Leopardstown and was a revelation, powering his rivals into submission and winning by a comfortable thirteen lengths under David Casey. The stable’s Hedgehunter won that race in 2004 before going on to take the Aintree Grand National in 2005 and winning trainer Mullins said afterwards that he felt On His Own was a real Aintree horse. Winning jockey Casey was equally impressed stating that the horse had put in some fantastic leaps. On His Own started a 14/1 shot for the 2012 Grand National and was due to be ridden by Ruby Walsh until injury intervened and Paul Townend deputised. On His Own’s backers were just starting to get excited when the horse fell at Bechers on the second circuit. It was probably too far out to be certain that On His Own would have been involved in the finish but he looked to be going as well as anything at that stage. The nine-year-old gelding had his first run of the new season over hurdles at Navan and most observers believed this would be a gentle introduction to the season for the Grand National favourite but On His Own had different ideas and powered to success, taking a valuable pot and a Grade Two victory over the smaller obstacles. To have the class to win at Grade Two level over hurdles could suggest that this horse has a major chance off a weight of 10st 10lbs in the Grand National in 2013
SEABASS 10-1
The official handicapper has put Ted Walsh’s charge up another five pounds for his performance at Aintree in 2012 to a mark of 154 which could be too steep a rise for a horse that appeared to just not last home last year. Ted Walsh has done a great job improving this son of Turtle Island over sixty pounds and the improvement may not yet be finished but it must be remembered that Seabass has yet to win over further than 22 furlongs under Rules (he has won a three mile point-to-point). His stamina did seem to ebb away in the final stages of the Grand National but with an extra year of experience and perhaps a less prominent early race ride, could he repeat the stables success of Papillon in 2000?
12-1
Cappa Bleu looked a horse with a huge future after taking the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunters on his debut under Rules but then suffered a serious fall in the 2009 Hennessy. Following that race at Newbury, Cappa Bleu had eighteen months off the track but managed to win immediately on his return, taking a decent handicap at Haydock in November 2011. Following that run he went to Chepstow for the Welsh National where he ran well in ground that he did not enjoy eventually finishing third to Le Beau Bai. Evan Williams’ charge came back after a short break following Chepstow to finish placed in a decent handicap at Ascot as his prep for Aintree last year and then ran a fine race in the Grand National to finish twelve lengths fourth to Neptune Collonges. Cappa Bleu’s owners (Mr and Mrs William Rucker) have a great record at Aintree (they also own State Of Play) and have now been placed an amazing four times with their horses. Cappa Bleu looks well weighted for Aintree on his best form and if he can overcome slight stamina doubts he must have an excellent chance of giving the Ruckers a win in the Grand National after so many near misses
14-1 CHICAGO GREY
A novice chaser in the 10/11 season this Gordon Elliott trained gelding started his chasing career early in the season, running his first race over fences on the 1st July. He followed his initial outing with a victory at the Galway Festival, highlighting his liking for good or good to firm ground. Chicago Grey actually ran eleven times in 10/11 until his final race in the Scottish National in April. A total of four wins were recorded in the season with the major highlight being victory in the NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where he saw off subsequent Scottish National winner Beshabar by over four lengths. Chicago Grey could just have been feeling the effects of a long season when misfiring at Ayr that year. The 11/12 season proved to be a major disappointment for connections of Chicago Grey but the Gordon Elliott yard were never at their full strength in that season and it has also recently emerged that this horse has recently had a wind operation. Something has obviously clicked as Chicago Grey smashed back to form when a surprise winner of a Grade Two chase at Navan over what looked an inadequate trip of two and a half miles in February 2013. This return to form and a suspicion that the handicapper may have let this horse in lightly at the weights for 2013 have seen plenty of ante post support for Gordon Elliott’s gelding.
14-1 COLBERT STATION
Plenty of people seemed to know that this horse was capable of much better form than he had been showing prior to the Paddy Power in Leopardstown as he was the subject of a substantial gamble. The Ted Walsh trained gelding ended up as favourite for the 98k race and his supporters were not disappointed as he ran out a five length plus winner. The Walsh family have won the National with Papillon and gone close with Seabass and there must be every chance that this horse still has plenty of improvement left in him. Could end up as one of the favourites come the day of the race
16-1
Teaforthree’s connections were quick to emphasise this horse’s abundant stamina and so it turned out with the gelding taking the four-mile National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival. That race had long been the plan and it is interesting that the 2013 Welsh National was also long since been mentioned as a second season target. Rebecca Curtis has made sure this son of Oscar has had plenty of experience at Chepstow with one outing over hurdles and three over fences there, including two victories. The course experience undoubtedly helped in the Welsh National itself when Teaforthree ran a huge race to finish a half-length second to Monbeg Dude and an inspired Paul Carberry. Teaforthree has since been disappointing on his only subsequent outing when finishing tenth in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. However, connections were very reserved about his chances at Haydock before the race and it would seem that the horse was not 100% tuned up for that race. One very positive aspect that day was Teaforthree’s superb jumping before he got tired – jumping as clean as that must be a huge plus for Aintree. This horse has class, stamina and top quality jumping skills and should be on all shortlists for the 2013 Grand National.
18-1 JOIN TOGETHER
Paul Nicholls has always referred to this horse as a staying chaser in the making and his run in the Becher Chase seems to underline those potential qualities. Just held by the gallant Hello Bud at Aintree he looks likely to improve further when tried over extreme distances and his generally clean and efficient jumping marks him down as a horse to watch closely for the Grand National. The handicapper does not appear to have reacted too unfavourably to Join Together’s Becher run so connections must be very hopeful of following up on the stable’s fine win the Grand National
20-1 IMPERIAL COMMANDER
Imperial Commander’s jumping has been superb in his wins at Cheltenham but there must be a doubt about his ability to stay the Grand National trip of four and a half miles. Added to that he now finds himself with top weight and connections have stated that it could be that he will be switched to the Betfred Bowl instead
20-1
Sunnyhillboy finally justified the obvious high opinion the stable hold him in when taking the Kim Muir at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival but the gelding probably owed his connections a few bob after previously being backed into favouritism for the 2010 Byrne Plate and the 2011 William Hill Chase at the Festival as well as the Irish National without delivering. After his Cheltenham success Sunnyhillboy was sent off 16/1 for the Grand National in 2012 where he would undoubtedly been a shorter price had he not been passed over by JP McManus’ retained jockey, AP McCoy. Sunnyhillboy went on to go agonisingly close to winning the 2012 Grand National losing out by a nose to Neptune Collonges in a breathtaking finish. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill had previously stated that he thought his charge might need a bit of cut in the ground for a race like the National to help him with his jumping which has been a problem at times in the past (his round of jumping before falling in the 2011 William Hill was x-rated). O’Neill had also voiced concerns over the horse’s size for a race such as the Grand National but these reservations proved unfounded as he really should have won but for wandering around on the run-in. Unfortunately that might have been Sunnyhillboy’s best chance to win a Grand National as he now sits on a ten pound higher mark than he ran from at Aintree. If there is a concern about his size lugging a big weight around Aintree will not be easy, although he is more likely to have the assistance of McCoy this time around
25-1
Ballabriggs took a while to find his feet over fences but once he got the hang of things he has gone from strength to strength winning a hat-trick of races in 2010, including the Kim Muir and, of course, following that up with a brilliant success in the 2011 Grand National. Ballabriggs was campaigned over hurdles in the early part of the 10/11 season to maintain a good handicap mark but that didn’t stop him winning two novice hurdles. He came back over fences at Kelso after the publication of the Grand National weights to finish second to Skippers Brig. Connections were very happy with his run at Kelso although it didn’t please all viewers and was presumably the reason he went from ante-post favourite for the Grand National to being available at 20/1 in the run-up to the race. Ballabriggs was put up a hefty ten pounds for his National win and the steep rise in handicap mark meant that, as with most returning champions, he was unable to win back his crown finishing an honourable 6th. The handicapper has been much more lenient with Ballabriggs for 2013 and Donald McCain’s gelding is only two pounds higher than he was when winning in 2011. However, it has been quite a while since he has shown his best form and it would be an amazing training performance if McCain could get another Grand National win out of Ballabriggs, especially at twelve years of age
2000 Papillon 10/1
2001 Red Marauder 33/1
2002 Bindaree 20/1
2003 Monty’s Pass 16/1
2004 Amberleigh House 16/1
2005 Hedgehunter 7/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2007 Silver Birch 33/1
2008 Comply or Die 7/1
2009 Mon Mome 100/1
2010 Don’t Push It 10/1
2011 Ballabriggs 14/1
2012 Neptune Collonges 33/1
LITERALLY ANYTHING CAN WIN THE NATIONAL …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6B86OitSb4&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6B86OitSb4&feature=player_embedded
It is not uncommon to see children follow in the footsteps of their parents and forge successful sporting careers; in no sport is this more evident than in horseracing. In stark contrast to the moniker ‘the sport of Kings’, the national hunt game has long been dominated by generations of hard-working families from rural roots, the Carberry family arguably the most recognisable of horseracing’s dynasties. Tommy, himself a Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National-winning jockey, has watched his children, Paul, Phillip and Nina, plunder a plethora of top events, including the Champion Hurdle, Irish Grand National and, most famously of all, the 1999 Aintree Grand National.
Tommy Carberry, of course, had a large involvement himself in the 1999 Grand National, training Bobbyjo, the previous year’s Irish Grand National winner, to prevail in the Aintree marathon under a fine ride from his prodigiously talented son, Paul. It was a real family affair as the victory sparked wild scenes of jubilation, the most iconic of which involved Paul swinging from the rafters of the Aintree winners’ enclosure, unable to conceal his sheer delight at securing one of racing’s most prestigious prizes.
Almost unbelievably, the horse narrowly pipped by Bobbyjo in the 1998 Irish Grand National, a bay gelding called Papillon, would also enjoy his day in the Aintree sun, winning the first renewal of the twenty-first century for another father-and-son combination, providing twenty-year-old Ruby Walsh with a winner for his father, Ted.
Riding in the race for the first time, having recovered from a broken leg sustained riding in the Czech Republic, Ruby Walsh had already achieved success in the saddle, winning the 1998/99 Irish Jockeys’ Championship in his first season as a professional rider. However, he was a relative unknown in Britain and, up until the day before the race, his mount, Papillon, was an unheralded 33/1 shot, his participation only confirmed a couple of weeks beforehand.
Ruby’s father, Ted, was well established in the racing game, gaining many notable wins as a highly-successful amateur jockey, before turning his hand to training as well as engaging in a spot of media work, appearing as a pundit on RTE Racing. Known for his forthright views and ‘colourful’ language, Walsh, presumably, was also well versed in the art of gentle persuasion as he managed to convince Papillon’s reluctant owner, Mrs J Maxwell Moran, to let her horse compete in the world’s most iconic race.
Out of form for much of the season, Papillon had hinted at signs of a revival in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on his final run before Aintree, and he was tipped by the influential Pricewise column on the morning of the race, sending original quotes of 33/1 plummeting. A real momentum developed behind Papillon and, having opened on course at 14/1, he – along with nearly every other horse – was slashed in price, eventually sent off as 10/1 joint-second favourite.
The owner’s fears regarding the daunting Aintree course looked to be misplaced as Papillon was soon in a lovely rhythm, jumping in exemplary fashion, settled just off the pace in the early stages. Not every horse took to Aintree quite so well as Papillon, however, as, in typically-attritional style, a quarter of the field were out of contention by the time they had jumped the formidable Becher’s Brook, including, notably, the well-supported favourite Dark Stranger, the representative of the powerful Martin Pipe and AP McCoy partnership.
Perhaps wisely, given the early carnage, the pace steadied somewhat after they jumped the Canal Turn for the first time, the well-fancied Star Traveller taking them along at a steady tempo; the most significant departure for the rest of the first circuit being that of Young Kenny, the class act in the field who was attempting to defy a mark of 155 and the welter burden of 12 stone.
Star Traveller was still at the head of affairs as the runners met the swirling wall of noise emanating from the packed grandstands on the approach to the intimidating, unforgiving obstacle known as the Chair. Surprisingly, the horses cleared that much-feared ditch without incident, the riders glad to remain on horseback with the much more comforting sight of the water jump on the horizon. Papillon, as had always been the case, remained close up, the leaders firmly in the sights of Ruby Walsh as they set out on their final circuit.
As is customary, Becher’s Brook was responsible for its fair share of incident as the depleted field took it for the second time, the Nicky Henderson-trained Esprit de Cotte falling, in addition to the patiently-ridden Stormy Passage also coming down and severely compromising the chances of Bobbyjo.
Walsh, having elected to go the brave man’s route on the inside, where the daunting drop is even more pronounced, managed to evade the danger, pushing Papillon into a share of the lead as they continued on their journey. Taking famous fences such as Foinavon, the Canal Turn and Valentine’s Brook, plenty were still travelling well within themselves, though Papillon was moving with eye-catching fluency, relishing the challenges the demanding National course provided.
Heading back to the ‘racecourse proper’, crossing the Melling Road with just two fences left to jump, a fair few remained in contention, but Papillon was moving ominously well under a motionless Walsh. Closing up behind him, however, also moving menacingly was Norman Williamson aboard Mely Moss, looking a real threat as he stealthily picked off his rivals.
Jumping the second-last fence, Papillon got in slightly close, handing the initiative to Mely Moss who stuck his head in front for the first time. Briefly, Walsh began to niggle on the heavily-backed Papillon, generating an instant response as his mount gamely fought back alongside his rival, the pair having the race between them as they jumped the final fence in unison.
Preparing for the long, punishing run-in, Papillon was quickly away from the final obstacle, gaining a length on Mely Moss. Using the famous ‘elbow’ as a reference point, acknowledging victory was close, Walsh administered a stern reminder, trying to keep his idling mount up to his work, desperately hoping to preserve the advantage. A weary Mely Moss, switched to the rail by Williamson, attempted one final challenge, but Papillon had enough in reserve, punched out the whole way by Walsh who, in a moment of euphoria, punched the air in delight as they crossed the line, achieving a boyhood dream at the first attempt, winning a race that has eluded some of the greatest jockeys.
Milesey ( betfair )
No horse racing on friday…….. but a bumper day on saturday, with the Lincoln, and also the richest race in dubai, sure to be an action packed day……
on to tomorrow though…… so much racing, going to leave it till the morning, to have a goodluck through all the cards, and just pick out a couple of races to have a good look over.
HORSE RACING TIPS
THURSDAY 28TH MARCH 2013
Wolverhampton 15:15
class 4 handicap over two miles
Murcar is a versatile performer under both codes who returned to winning ways on first Flat start since 2009 over C&D in January. Runner-up both starts since and still looks on a fair mark.
McBirney has won last 2 starts on polytrack, including easy victory at Kempton last week. Looks well in under a penalty but pulled too hard on previous attempt at this trip.
Capellanus made a promising start for current yard over hurdles, and bounced back to form when landing jumpers’ bumper here in January. Good second over C&D last 2 starts and needs considering.
The Absent Mare is a likeable mare who improved last season for being stepped up in trip, winning twice at Kempton. Has to bounce back from rare poor run last time but entirely possible she’ll do so.
Foster’s Road nnjoyed a productive 2012, winning twice over hurdles as well as 3 times on the Flat. Won AW bumper in January and beat Capellanus over C&D 2 weeks ago.
Marmas found improvement to win 2m Lingfield handicap in October, coming clear with another. Shaped like a thorough stayer that day so the stronger the pace the better on return.
Hallstatt has not won for a while but placed in some similar contests on turf last year and made a respectable enough return over C&D recently. Opposable for win purposes, though.
1. Foster’s Road
2. Murcar
3. McBirney
McBirney was an easy winner last week but he still has his stamina to prove and Foster’s Road appeals as a more solid option. Murcar is another to consider
Milesey ( betfair )
Woo Hoo got winner at last yippeeeee can i get 2 in a day Arabian Flight 7.20 wolver come on.
Yarmouth DOG RACING
——————–
Droopys Reason 19:49 TRAP 3
Bridge Ruth 20:04 TRAP 3
Fear Emoski 20:19 TRAP 3
Farloe Barracuda 20:34 TRAP 2
Loughteen Blanco 21:04 TRAP 5
Lemon Pluto 21:19 TRAP 3
Milesey
Yarmouth DOG RACING
——————–
Droopys Reason 19:49 TRAP 3 * 3RD *
Bridge Ruth 20:04 TRAP 3 * 2ND *
Fear Emoski 20:19 TRAP 3 * WIN *
Farloe Barracuda 20:34 TRAP 2 * WIN *
Loughteen Blanco 21:04 TRAP 5 * 3RD *
Lemon Pluto 21:19 TRAP 3 * WIN *
HORSE RACING TIPS
THURSDAY 28TH MARCH 2013
Wolverhampton 15:15
class 4 handicap over two miles
Murcar is a versatile performer under both codes who returned to winning ways on first Flat start since 2009 over C&D in January. Runner-up both starts since and still looks on a fair mark.
McBirney has won last 2 starts on polytrack, including easy victory at Kempton last week. Looks well in under a penalty but pulled too hard on previous attempt at this trip.
Capellanus made a promising start for current yard over hurdles, and bounced back to form when landing jumpers’ bumper here in January. Good second over C&D last 2 starts and needs considering.
The Absent Mare is a likeable mare who improved last season for being stepped up in trip, winning twice at Kempton. Has to bounce back from rare poor run last time but entirely possible she’ll do so.
Foster’s Road nnjoyed a productive 2012, winning twice over hurdles as well as 3 times on the Flat. Won AW bumper in January and beat Capellanus over C&D 2 weeks ago.
Marmas found improvement to win 2m Lingfield handicap in October, coming clear with another. Shaped like a thorough stayer that day so the stronger the pace the better on return.
Hallstatt has not won for a while but placed in some similar contests on turf last year and made a respectable enough return over C&D recently. Opposable for win purposes, though.
1. Foster’s Road
2. Murcar
3. McBirney
McBirney was an easy winner last week but he still has his stamina to prove and Foster’s Road appeals as a more solid option. Murcar is another to consider
……………………more to come tomorrow when i have looked over the cards, alot to get through.
Milesey ( Betfair )
why do you take my post down mrf
Gunner, because it’s your usual nonsense about Milesey. Give us some tips not sly digs.
Dubai World Cup
runner-by-runner guide to the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup…
Treasure Beach was an Irish Derby winner in his time but failed to win for Aidan O’Brien last year, best effort when second to Point Of Entry in a Grade 1. Promising debut for this yard and should build on that.
Red Cadeux is a tough and reliable sort who won a couple last year, including the Hong Kong Vase on his final start. Shorter trip and different surface to contend with here so looks opposable.
Dullahan is a high-class performer in America if not the most consistent, best effort last year when winning a Grade 1 at Del Mar. Got worked up and trip sharp enough on return and claims on best form.
Hunter’s Light has an impressive strike rate, and has been most progressive at Meydan this year, winning the second and third legs of the Maktoum Challenge with plenty in hand. Looks one of the leading candidates.
Capponi progressed well in 2012, winning the third round of the Maktoum Challenge before finishing second in this corresponding event. Not seen since then which is a concern.
Side Glance is a consistent performer who won Epsom Group 3 last June before finishing placed on his next 4 starts. Good run behind Sajjhaa on return but should be outclassed in this.
Planteur is a very smart performer, whose 4 outings last term all came at the highest level, including when placed in Dubai World Cup. Made all to win listed race on return and could sneak a place again.
Royal Delta was well held in this last year but things didn’t pan out for her and she’s improved since then, winning 4 times in 2012. Confirmed wellbeing with recent win at Gulfstream and a leading player.
Meandre won a pair of Group 1’s last season, victory over Shareta at Saint-Cloud the pick of them. Held his form well otherwise and should come on for reappearance when tackling an unsuitable trip.
Monterosso won the Dubai World Cup in 2012, but has been well beaten since then, not showing a great deal when down the field behind Hunter’s Light latest. Could easily peak in this again but enough to prove.
African Story has an excellent record on this surface, winning 4 times including the Godolphin Mile last year. Better than ever on return when landing the Burj Nahaar and intriguing contender if staying.
Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby in 2011 but last season was curtailed due to injury (was due to run in this). Has come back looking better than ever, second to Point Of Entry recently, and a leading player.
Kassiano has been progressing really well, winning 3 of his 5 starts this year. Best effort in defeat when second to Hunter’s Light last time and could easily reach a place once more under ideal conditions.
1. Hunter’s Light
2. Royal Delta
3. African Story
The Americans have struggled since this race was switched to tapeta and whilst this is their strongest challenge for some time, they may struggle to contain Hunter’s Light who is a horse that is simply thriving under these conditions. Royal Delta looks the best of those from the States with African Story an intriguing contender if seeing out this longer trip.
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Ante-post favourite Hunter’s Light will break from stall four in Saturday’s Dubai World Cup at Meydan…
The Saeed bin Suroor-trained five-year-old was a Group 2 winner at the track in February and sealed his place at the head of the market when winning the third round of the Maktoum Challenge earlier this month.
He is one of three runners in the Godolphin blue for the 10-furlong race, with last year’s winner Monterosso going for glory again from stall 10 and African Story in 11.
Capponi will start from stall five as he bids to go one place better than his second in 2012, while Kassiano is widest of all in 13 to complete the teams for Saeed bin Suroor and Mahmood al Zarooni.
Top American mare Royal Delta enjoyed no luck at all in finishing ninth last year but the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner will be hoping for better fortunes this time in stall eight.
Fellow American runner Dullahan is in stall two, while there are three British runners, headed by Marco Botti’s Planteur in stall seven.
Hong Kong Vase winner Red Cadeaux will be in stall two for Ed Dunlop, with Andrew Balding’s Side Glance in six.
Animal Kingdom, winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby, will be in stall 12, with the Andre Fabre-trained Meandre in nine and outsider Treasure Beach (one) rounding out the field.
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The world’s richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan, has attracted a star-studded 13-runner field.
Saturday’s race…
The obvious starting point when previewing the Dubai World Cup is Godolphin, who have owned the winner five times since the race’s inception in 1996, with Saeed bin Suroor (who also trained Hamdan Al Maktoum’s 1999 winner of the race Almutawakel) responsible for four of those, and new boy on the block, Mahmood Al Zarooni, getting in on the act last year by saddling the first two home, namely Monterosso and Capponi.
It’s no surprise that the boys in blue are heavily represented again this time around, with three running in their colours, namely African Story, Hunter’s Light and Monterosso, and bin Suroor and Al Zarooni will also be represented by Kassiano and Capponi respectively, who have both sported the famous blue in the past but will be in different colours for this race.
The most prominent in the betting out of those five, and indeed favourite or joint-favourite with most bookmakers, is Hunter’s Light, the winner of rounds two and three of the Maktoum Challenge at the Carnival this year.
Godolphin’s last five winners in this race had contested at least one round of the Maktoum Challenge prior to World Cup success and Hunter’s Light couldn’t have been any more impressive in disposing of Surfer in February and his progressive stablemate Kassiano more recently, looking every inch World Cup material.
Hunter’s Light’s record on an artificial surface stands at four from five (only defeat came on debut) and he fully deserves to be towards the head of the market.
Few could have envisaged Kassiano as a likely runner in this at the start of the Carnival, when rated only 106 by Timeform. He has been the most progressive handicapper in Dubai this year, however, improving into a very smart performer in winning three times and then upping his game again when stepped up to pattern company behind Hunter’s Light. He didn’t get the clearest of runs through that day, so can be rated as finishing a clearer second, and there will be worse outsiders than him.
Last year’s winner, Monterosso, is obviously worth a mention as he bids to become the first horse to retain his crown. He will again go into the race on the back of just one run which came in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge when a long way behind Hunter’s Light.
It’s fair to say Monterosso didn’t show anywhere near as much as he had done when prepping a year ago, however, and on that basis he can’t really be supported with any confidence, mindful that he also disappointed on his sole outing in Britain after last year’s success.
A stronger contender could be African Story, who took well to the tapeta surface at last year’s Carnival, winning three times, including the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night. He demonstrated his well-being when making a successful return over the same trip when landing the Burj Nahaar at Meydan earlier in the month.
High-class form over a mile, as well as an impressive course record (four wins from five starts), brings African Story into the reckoning, though the trip is very much an unknown stepping up beyond a mile for the first time.
The other dominant force in the race has traditionally been the American contingent, with eight winners down the years, though it’s fair to say they haven’t been anything like as successful since the race switched from dirt to tapeta ahead of the 2010 renewal. Gio Ponti’s fourth placing that year is the best an American raider has managed on the new surface, with Game On Dude and Royal Delta both noticeable disappointments twelve months ago.
This year’s challenge from the States looks strong, on paper at least, with the aforementioned Royal Delta, as well as Animal Kingdom and Dullahan all declared to run.
Royal Delta will at least return with that experience under her belt, and she has clearly improved again since then, her defeat of My Miss Aurelia in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic one of the highlights on Breeders’ Cup night. She has confirmed her well-being with a recent win at Gulfstream Park and it seems reasonable to assume she will fare much better this time around.
Dullahan disappointed on turf at the Breeder’s Cup but had shown high-class form on a synthetic surface earlier in the year when winning the TVG Pacific Classic. The Dale Romans-trained colt has had a pipe-opener at Meydan this year, finishing well down the field behind African Story in the Burj Nahaar. That performance hardly enhanced his credentials, but there were potential excuses. The shorter trip is the obvious one, whilst it was reported he got very worked up on the way over to the track.
Dullahan’s form in America stands up to the closest scrutiny and whilst it’s fair to say he isn’t the most consistent, he is more than capable of getting involved if on a ‘going day’.
The only Kentucky Derby winner to run in the Dubai World Cup was Silver Charm back in 1998 and Animal Kingdom will bid to complete that notable double when he lines up twelve months later than originally intended.
Animal Kingdom was due in Dubai last year only to suffer an injury and he’s been limited to just three starts in the last nineteen months, all on turf, winning an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream before finishing second to Wise Dan in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (when staying on strongly after meeting trouble) and to Point of Entry in a Grade 1 back at Gulfstream in February. The surface is obviously an unknown, though he does have form on polytrack, whilst his style of racing (tends to be held up) could leave him vulnerable given how Meydan has ridden this year.
Mike de Kock’s sole contender is last year’s Sheema Classic fourth Treasure Beach, who has plenty to find with the main protagonists on Timeform ratings (only sixth behind Hunter’s Light on sole run this year) and essentially isn’t good enough, and similar comments apply to the three British-trained runners, Planteur, Side Glance and Red Cadeaux.
That leaves the French-trained Meandre, who is a triple Group 1 winner over a mile and a half on turf but may find things happening a bit quick for him in this.
As things stand, Hunter’s Light makes plenty of appeal. He is fit and firing, clearly relishes this surface and has done nothing wrong in winning both his starts this year. With doubts of one sort or another over the American-trained runners, as well as last year’s winner Monterosso, Kassiano makes as much appeal as anything of those at longer odds.
Recommendations:
Back Hunter’s Light @ 5.6
Back Kassiano @ 11.5
Milesey ( betfair )
Haha you may not understand racing Mr F but you surely must understand odds 1/20 should tell you it wasn’t a hard pick … Maybe you should have congratulated him on one of his other picks
AC, honestly give it a rest – it’s about third time you’ve posted it. I can congratulate Milesey if I like, it’s really none of your business. At the end of the day this is a busy site and I’m posting racing tips when I can get a spare moment. Milesey fires them over and I put an intro on. Noticed his nap had won but didn’t see the price.
Lee, no more on Titanbet. Admin are dealing with this for you and you know it.