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PROSPECTS of Sunday racing are much brighter after only Southwell beat the big freeze on Saturday.
The weather gods smiled on Wincanton and there is no inspection is planned for Sunday’s jumps card.
“We’re perfectly raceable now,” said clerk of the course Barry Johnson. “We had heavy rain on Friday but nothing since this morning. It might touch freezing tonight but I wouldn’t be worried about that and there’s no rain or snow forecast. The going is heavy.”
It’s a similar story for the day’s other turf meeting at the Curragh and for the all-weather fixture at Lingfield. Lingfield clerk of the course, Neil Mackenzie Ross, anticipates no issues while scattered showers are unlikely to hinder the start of the turf season in Ireland, although the going is expected to be testing.
Monday’s outlook is not as promising after the meetings at Taunton and Towcester were abandoned on Saturday, leaving Lingfield as the sole surviving fixture.
GambleAware
The 2013 Grand National tapes rise at 4.15pm on April 6th, and so it’s about time we previewed the runners and tried to tip you a winner!
let’s take a look at the 2013 Grand National field.
First up, let’s look at the key Aintree Grand National Trends.
Aintree Grand National 2013 Primary Trends
Let’s first consider the nature of the Grand National. Not for nothing is it the apple of the once-a-year-punters’ eye. Despite all the mollycoddling of external pressure groups and the commensurate changes to the fences and race distance, the National remains a race in extremis.
It’s four and a half miles long (less a hundred metres this year, if you’ll pardon my mixed measurements). That’s longer than any other race in the British calendar.
It has forty runners. Forty! That’s more than any other in the British calendar.
It requires horse and jockey to traverse thirty fences. Thirty! That’s more than any other in the British calendar, bar the cross-country course at Cheltenham.
Yes, folks, this is a proper test. Consequently, it will come as no surprise that it requires a horse with certain attributes which align with the aforementioned rigours.
Specifically, the following…
It makes sense that if a horse is to jump thirty fences, it should be a good jumper. Duh! Supporting this is the fact that fifteen of the last sixteen winners had fallen, unseated or been brought down a maximum of twice. Last year’s winner, Neptune Collonges, was the exception.
We’ll exclude any horse with three or more ‘fall related’ non-completions (or FUB’s)
Further, over such a long distance, it stands to reason that those with proven stamina should prevail. To this end, every winner since the year dot (or at least since 1988, when I got bored of looking) had won over at least three miles.
Most horses will pass that test, so it’s not that much of an eliminator. But eight of the last nine winners have won beyond three miles one furlong, and that extra distance trips up plenty of aspirants. You might think it’s immaterial, but beyond three miles is ‘stout stayer’ territory, and that’s the type of horse which will obviously be suited to a race over four and a half miles (or thereabouts).
We’ll also exclude any horse which has yet to win beyond 3m1f
Finally on the ‘blindingly obvious’ front, you need a nimble and/or lucky horse to win in a field of forty. Although the actual figure is a tad arbitrary, nine of the last ten winners had previously won in a field of at least fourteen runners. Here again, the exception was Neptune Collonges.
One swallow does not a summer make, and nor does it a logical trend break. So…
Let’s exclude any horse which has failed to win in a field of fourteen or more.
Grand National 2013 hope, On His Own
Those are what I call primary trends and, whilst dear old Neptune Collonges buggered things up a bit last year, they would have isolated eight of the last ten Grand National winners.
This year, they eliminate the following of the current 57 remaining entries:
Always Waining, Any Currency, Auroras Encore, Becauseicouldntsee, Big Fella Thanks, Bob Lingo, Bostons Angel, Chicago Grey, Cloudy Lane, Colbert Station, Forpadydeplasterer, Gullible Gordon, Harry The Viking, Join Together, Joncol, Lost Glory, Magnanimity, Major Malarkey, Mortimers Cross, Mr Moonshine, Mumbles Head, Ninetieth Minute, On His Own, Oscar Time, Pearlysteps, Pentiffic, Prince De Beauchene (gulp), Quel Esprit, Quinz, Quiscover Fontaine, Rare Bob, Roberto Goldback, Romanesco, Saint Are, Seabass, Soll, Swing Bill, Tarquinius, Tatenen, The Rainbow Hunter, Tofino Bay, Viking Blond, Weird Al, and Wyck Hill.
Crikey! That’s 45 of the 57 entries excluded!
Now, of course, that doesn’t mean one of the above can’t win. It merely means they will be trying to do something pretty logical that most winners in the past decade had done.
**
Aintree Grand National 2013 Secondary Trends
Let’s consider some secondary trends, and see if we’re any wiser thereafter…
All bar one of the last sixteen winners was rated 138 or higher and, more recently, the last four winners have been rated 148 or higher. This latter element is material, because it has become official policy to try to give those classy horses at the very top of the weights some sort of a winning chance. Since than conscious decision was made in 2009, the winners have been rated on average 152.
Compare that with the average of the previous four year, which was 139.75. The previous ten years (i.e. those four plus the six before that) averaged 139.4.
That’s almost a stone difference in weight-carrying performance and, whilst it might prove dangerous to be definitive, I’ll definitely be siding with the classier, higher rated, and higher weighted horses.
Look towards the top of the National weights in what is becoming a class-favouring contest.
In the last sixteen years, fourteen of the winners have been aged between nine and eleven years old. Only one eight year old (Bindaree) and one twelve year old (Amberleigh House) have been able to prevail. Those outside of the nine to eleven year old range accounted for 32.05% of runners, but just 12.5% of winners.
The first four home were nine to eleven; the first TEN home in 2011 were in this group; the first three home in 2010 were too; as were the first four home in 2009. Indeed, in the last sixteen years, of those exactly 200 runners aged eight or less, or twelve or more, just thirteen have made the frame (1-2-3-4)… and eleven of those were eight year olds.
Forget twelve year olds and up, and seven year olds (only Saint Are representing that group this time).
And we’ll place our faith in the nine to eleven year old camp.
Now a quick word on chasing experience. Every winner since Miinehoma in 1994 had had at least ten chase starts. That makes sense, right? I mean, this is a pretty robust examination of a horse’s jumping, and running, ability. In fact, even Miinehoma had had nine starts over fences, and the National was his tenth!
Since 1999 (a period for which I have ready access to data), 104 horses have tried and failed to win the Grand National with less than ten chase starts under their belts. And only five of them even placed.
Wyck Hill is notably inexperienced this time around, with just seven chase starts in his record.
Exclude any horse with less than ten chase starts to his name.
Of our remaining twelve horses, the following are excluded by secondary trends:
Backstage, Ballabriggs, Beshabar, Cappa Bleu, Imperial Commander, Poker De Sivola, and Treacle.
Put another way, we’re left with a shortlist of five:
Across The Bay (40/1), Balthazar King (33/1), Lion Na Bearnai (50/1), Sunnyhillboy(20/1), and What A Friend (50/1).
Those are all 20/1 or bigger at time of writing, which is quite tempting. But we should consider things more holistically before putting pen to betting slip paper.
**
Aintree Grand National 2013 Form Preview
Reading the form for the Grand National is generally a bit like nailing jelly to a wall. There are very few races run over the National fences and, if your horse does happen to run well over the specific test, he gets whacked by the discretionary handicapping policy in place now. Of course, if your horse hasn’t run over the National fences, it’s in for a surprise and it may not be the type that likes surprises!
The discretionary handicapping policy is worth touching on for a second, because it has had two profound – and almost polarically different – bearings on recent results in this race.
Firstly, in 2003, the official handicapper was given latitude to account for what is known as ‘the Aintree Factor’. That is, to award a horse more weight if it has proven itself to be well suited to the unique Grand National fence challenge. The upshot of this was that Amberleigh House was given a higher official rating for the Grand National than he’d have had to bear in a ‘normal’ handicap chase.
Without that higher rating, he wouldn’t have made the cut for the final forty in 2003, when he finished third to Montys Pass. He came back the following year, with more weight, and won the race.
For around five or six years, the impact of the discretionary handicapping policy was merely to ensure those horses lurking on the lower fringes of the weights were allowed to run if their previous National fence form indicated they should be. But it also seemed to have a bearing on the average weight carried to victory.
In the six years from 1997 to 2002, the average winning weight carried was 10-05. In the six years from 2003 to 2008, the average winning weight carried was 10-09. And in the four years since then, the average winning weight carried was 11-03.
This is because, more recently, not only has Grand National fence form been accounted for at the bottom of the weights, but also something called ‘compression’ has been employed to give those classier horses at the top of the ratings a better chance.
Let’s put that another way: between 1984 and 2004, only two horses carried eleven stone or more to victory. And they carried exactly eleven stone, and a single pound more respectively. In the eight years since then, five of the eight winners have carried eleven stone or more, including lead-luggers with 11-05 and 11-06 in the last three years.
One final way of putting this: last year, the highest two weighted horses to complete the race finished first and sixth; in 2011, the top weight finished third; in 2010, two of the top four weighted horses to finish were placed first and second; and in 2009, all of the first four home were carrying eleven stone or more, including the 100/1 winner!
In summary, the better horses have a much better chance.
2013 Grand National hope, Across The Bay
Let’s start from the top then, and the top of the weights to be precise. Imperial Commander, a former Gold Cup winner no less, heads the weights with 11-10 and he must be the horse with the highest former rating of any recent renewal, having been afforded a 185 for his 2010 Gold Cup win. Since then, he’s not been seen in public a great deal, just four times to be precise.
He unshipped on the main Aintree track directly after his Gold Cup win; then came back to win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in November 2010, before an abortive attempt at defending his Gold Cup crown in March 2011. And that was it, until the end of January this year, when the Commander returned with a fine second in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham in heavy ground.
He finished tired there, and I think the extended break since – by-passing the Gold Cup – was a wise move. If he lines up in the Grand National, off a mark of just 158, he must have a great chance. If you want to back him now, make sure to use a non-runner no bet bookie, as he’s far from a certain runner.
Next in the weights list is Paul Nicholls’ What A Friend, himself a dual Grade 1 winner (including on the main Aintree chase strip) and fourth in the 2011 Gold Cup. He’s a stone below his rating just a year ago and, still only a ten year old, he ticks a lot – indeed all – of the trends boxes for Grand National 2013.
He was seventh in last year’s Betfred Bowl Chase here, and has had just the one run since then, when a plugging on eighth in the Racing Plus Chase over Kempton’s slick three miles. What A Friend actually ran in the 2011 National, where he travelled and jumped really well until running out of steam, and being pulled up.
He was only eight then, and had also had a hard race in the Gold Cup less than three weeks previously. This time, he’s older and stronger, and fresher. Whether he’s in the same form is a good question, but at odds around the 50/1 mark (best odds guaranteed, non runner no bet), it’s easy to take a bit of a chance.
Weird Al is next, and although he’s in the right hands – now trained by Grand National winning trainer in his own right, and ‘Son of Ginger’, Donald McCain – he seems to have problems. Specifically, he’s pulled up in three of his last five runs, and was well back when falling four out in last year’s National. He’s just too inconsistent to have any faith in, for me.
Slated to carry 11-07 is the first of Willie Mullins’ four remaining entries, Prince De Beauchene. This chap hasn’t taken a lot of racing in recent times – just four starts in the last two years – but he’s still managed to win the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase last year, and run up in the same contest this year. He was odds on when beaten there, but that wouldn’t put me off.
Whilst I have a slight niggle about his stamina for the four and half miles of the Grand National, the rest of his form looks spot on. He’s classy, jumps well, has run well in big fields (including when winning here in a Listed contest two years ago), and has scope to improve again. But three miles and a furlong is fully eleven furlongs (or 30%) shorter than he’s got to run here, and he may or may not last home.
Of course, that comment is true for a lot of his rivals as well. It’s just that they’re generally far bigger prices than the best priced 12/1 Prince de Beauchene is. At the odds, then, he’s not for me.
I’m readily putting a line through the next trio – Quel Esprit (not a good enough jumper, doubtful stayer, inexperienced); Big Fella Thanks (thoroughly exposed, and finished tamely in last two Nationals – though completed both times); and, Roberto Goldback (bad jumper, very exposed).
Seabass comes next, and he was a game third last year, for Katie Walsh, who was bidding to be the first lady to ride the National winner. He came with a chance to win it there, but didn’t quite seem to get home. He’s five pounds more weight to carry this time, which should ensure that he’ll again fall short, though perhaps not by much. Best of luck to Katie, all the same. She’s a cracking jockey.
On 11-04 is the wonderful Ballabriggs, winner of the 2011 Grand National and sixth last year off top weight. If the ground is good or good to soft, this fellow could make the frame despite now being twelve years old. He’s got the same handicap mark as when winning two years back, and fully ten pounds less than last year. It’s his last realistic chance of winning, and he’s likely to be a good bit shorter than 25/1 on the day.
The next trio are all of interest to me one way or another. First in is Sunnyhillboy, the victim of the closest call in National history last year when beaten a nose by the rallying Neptune Collonges. He was five lengths clear of the third, and another seven clear of the fourth there, and he’s got another ten pounds on his back for that. With stamina and track alacrity proven, it might not be enough of a burden to keep him out of the frame again.
Next is Teaforthree. Despite being a second season chaser, he’s already had ten starts over the big obstacles, and they include a win in the Cheltenham four miler, and a second place in the Welsh National when spotting the winner sixteen pounds. He goes on any ground, jumps very well for one so inexperienced, and the only slight reservation I have is whether he’s quite good enough in a very classy renewal. He could go close.
The third of this trio is Across The Bay, also trained by Son of Ginger. A very classy hurdler (third to Big Buck’s in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle here last year, and winner of a Grade 2 hurdle last time), his chasing career has been a bit stop-start. He was good enough to win a big field beginners’ chase on debut, and then ran second in a Grade 2 novice chase that year. But his next three chase runs all ended with him pulling up, despite a big field handicap hurdle win in their midst.
Since reverting to chasing this season, he’s added an easy score in a Class 3 handicap, and another Grade 2 silver medal on the chase course here. True, he was a fairly disappointing seventh of 17 in the Welsh National, but that in heavy ground and carrying top weight of 11-12. He’s in great nick, and I think he has a much better chance than his 40/1 odds imply.
I find it hard to make a case for too many of the rest, given that they’re probably not going to be classy enough to win this year’s renewal, but a couple of others to note might be Lion Na Bearnai, Balthazar King, Bostons Angel, Cappa Bleu and Poker De Sivola.
Sunnyhillboy to go one better in Grand National 2013?
Lion Na Bearnai is a lightly raced chaser and good enough to win last year’s Irish Grand National. In just one run since then, he pulled up behind Bobs Worth in the Hennessy back on 1st December and hasn’t been seen since. If he turned up, fitness would need to be taken on trust. But he’s proven stamina, is a good jumper, and handles a big field. He’s been given a racing weight here too. He’s 50/1 non-runner no bet.
Balthazar King needs good ground. If he gets it, he too has proven stamina, having won the cross country race at last year’s Festival. Forced out of this year’s renewal, for which he shared favouritism, due to deep ground, he’ll come here a fit and fresh horse. With jumping unlikely to be an issue, the question will be whether he’s quite good enough to challenge the very best. I suspect he probably isn’t, but he ought to give followers a decent run for their money, as long as the word ‘good’ appears in the going description.
Bostons Angel is another from the cross country ranks. But it wasn’t always that way with this one. No indeed. As recently as the 2011 Festival, he was winning the RSA Chase and, while that probably left its mark on him, he’s re-emerged as a staying chaser of some ability this season. Stamina ought not to be a problem, nor will the big field, and if he can rediscover the form of two years ago, he’d have more than a squeak at around 66/1.
Cappa Bleu doesn’t take much racing. In fact, he’s only had nine chase starts, and only six runs in his last two seasons. That’s less than any winner in the last sixteen years, but he ran fourth last year – staying on – and on soft ground he could run into the frame again. He acts on quicker, but I just don’t think he’d be quite fast/fit enough on that.
And finally, lurking right at the bottom of the weights, is Poker De Sivola. If any horse can win from the lower depths of the field now, it might be him. Still only a ten year old, he’s been brilliantly campaigned by Ferdy Murphy to win both a Cheltenham four miler (2010) and a bet365 Gold Cup (2011). Since then, he’s been nursed back to a decent rating in two starts late last year.
If he shows up, and if the ground is good, he goes well enough fresh to merit a throwaway interest at 66/1 or so.
**
Aintree Grand National 2013 Tips
Obviously, this is a tricky race, where you need a horse with class, courage, stamina, and jumping finesse. My shortlist comprises:
Imperial Commander, What A Friend, Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, and Across The Bay.
The first two are not certain to run, so it may be prudent to bet with a non-runner no bet (NRNB) bookmaker. The other three should all line up, and should all give us a run for our money.
Grand National 2013 selection: Across The Bay 33/1 bet365s
Grand National 2013 selection: Ballabriggs 28/1 sportingbet
Grand National 2013 selection: What A Friend 50/1 bet365
Grand National 2013 selection: Sunnyhillboy 25/1 Coral
Grand National 2013 selection: Imperial Commander 33/1 Stan James
Best Aintree Grand National 2013 Bookmaker Offers
If you’re interested in placing a bet – and why wouldn’t you be?! – then my advice is as follows:
– if betting more than five days before the race, i.e. April 1st or earlier, then use a Non Runner No Bet bookie, unless you’re sure your horse will run. The bookmakers which are currently non-runner no bet are Bet365, BetVictor and Stan James (SJ from 9am Saturday 23rd March).
bet365 have the best offer currently as they are non-runner no bet, plus they’re paying a quarter the odds on five places, AND they’re best odds guaranteed. That means if your horse doesn’t run you’ll get your cash back. If your horse is fifth and you bet each way, you’ll get a return. And if your horse goes off at a bigger price than you’ve taken, you’ll get paid at the bigger price.
If bet365 are best price on the horse you fancy, you should ABSOLUTELY bet it with them! They’ll also give you up to £200 in free bets when you sign up. Click the link below if you’ve not already got a bet365 account.
Milesey
Good article Milesey. Interesting read……
Looking forward to the national, well actually the whole Aintree meeting, going to try and get up there, especially if they do put sprinter in against Cue Card and Flemenstar ;)
Milesey
Nicky Henderson refused to rule out the possibility of Sprinter Sacre running at Aintee, where a fascinating clash with Cue Card and Flemenstar could be on the cards…
Speaking on Channel 4 Racing, Nicky Henderson said that Sprinter Sacre, the third-highest rated national hunt horse in Timeform’s history, had come out of Cheltenham in fine form and is likely to run again this season, either in the Melling Chase, over two and a half miles at Aintree, or in the Champion Chase, over two miles, at Punchestown.
In an earlier interview with At The Races, Henderson said: “We might try Sprinter Sacre over two and a half (miles) which would open up a few extra avenues for next year. He has got this hugely high cruising speed and the faster he goes the better he probably jumps.”
“When you are holding him up behind horses you are just containing his enthusiasm and his natural talent which is to go and bowl and jump and attack.”
“I’d think it might be a good idea. We`ve discussed it at length this week. We haven’t said definitely it`s what we are going to do. We were thinking of Punchestown and there’s also the Celebration Chase at Sandown on the final day (of the season). So we have got three options.”
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Ryan Moore booked for Planteur in World Cup
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RYAN MOORE will again come in for the ride on Planteur in the Dubai World Cup and trainer Marco Botti feels the six-year-old is in better shape than when the pair were third in the race last season, three and a half lengths behind Monterosso.
Since joining Botti, Planteur has been ridden by Moore in last year’s race, while Christophe Soumillon renewed the partnership at Longchamp and Royal Ascot, and William Buick took the ride on his final start last season at York.
Adam Kirby was in the saddle when Planteur achieved his first win for his new trainer, when breaking the track record at Lingfield in the Winter Derby Trial – his first start this season and his prep race for the Emirates Airline-sponsored Dubai World Cup.
However, despite riding more for Botti than any other jockey in the last year, Kirby misses out on his first ride in the world’s richest race.
“Ryan rode him when he was third last year and the previous owner had expressed a desire to have him again, so we’d booked him. When he switched owners the new owner was more than happy to have Ryan, so we left it as it was,” explained Botti.
Botti is confident he has his charge in better shape and continued: “Ryan knows the horse well, he’s in good shape and I think he has benefited from his preparation this year as he’s had a run. He went there fresh last year and I think having the run will help him.
“We know he handles the track and if he gets a bit of luck with the draw he could have a very good chance. He did his final piece of work yesterday, which was very good, and he left this morning, so it’s very exciting.”
With the richest meeting in the world just a week away, Coral have priced up the Group 1s on the card, with Hunter’s Light and Royal Delta their 9-2 joint-favourites for the $10 million 1m2f contest. Planteur is a 12-1 shot.
Gentildonna heads their betting for the Dubai Sheema Classic, with St Nicholas Abbey next at 7-2, while Mental heads the market for the Dubai Golden Shaheen at 2-1, with Gordon Lord Byron next at 5-1.
The David Simcock-trained Trade Storm heads the Dubai Duty Free betting at 9-2, with Shea Shea the 13-8 favourite for the Al Quoz Sprint.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Weather prospects in Britain and Ireland
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Sunday, March 24
CURRAGH
Soft to Heavy
LINGFIELD
Standard
WINCANTON
Heavy
Inspection passed on Saturday morning. No further inspections planned but officials will continue to monitor the weather.
Monday, March 25
LINGFIELD
Standard
TAUNTON – abandoned due to waterlogging
TOWCESTER – abandoned due to snow
Tuesday, March 26
FONTWELL
Heavy – standing water in places
LINGFIELD
Standard
SOUTHWELL
Standard
Wednesday, March 27
LEOPARDSTOWN
Heavy – surface water on parts of track
LINGFIELD
Standard
SOUTHWELL
Standard
WETHERBY
Soft, Heavy in places – covered in two inches of snow
As the snow melts there is the possibility of waterlogging in the back straight
WOLVERHAMPTON
Standard
Thursday, March 28
CLONMEL
Soft (Soft to Heavy in places on hurdles course)
FFOS LAS
Soft
LUDLOW
Good to Soft
Weather forecast (snow) gives some cause for concern. Prospects due to be updated on Monday morning.
WOLVERHMAPTON
Standard
If you’re the only racing fan in your family or circle of friends, this time of year is one fraught with danger. The once-a-year punters are getting ready for their day. Very soon they will be in touch, and they will ask you expectantly: what is going to win the Grand National?
The annoyance of this is that the National is popularly regarded as just about the hardest race on the calendar to pick the winner of. Were you to ask a bookworm to sum up War And Peace in a sentence, say, or tell a wine enthusiast that you’d like advice on the best vines to plant in West Yorkshire, you’d rightly be laughed out of the room. However, we racing fans are expected to crack our toughest puzzle, to the point that a Timeform employee’s professional reputation can be on the line if the appointed creature comes down before first Becher’s…
Of course, we secretly like to play up the difficulty of the National. In reality, it’s a high-end handicap chase in which the only specialist requirement is the ability to both jump and stay a little better than your average chaser. We’re helped further by the fact that increasing numbers of those that line up on the day have previous course experience, which takes out much of the guesswork over which horses will be suited by the famous spruce fences.
You don’t need to look far among this year’s contenders to find horses that have already tackled the course. Among the favourites alone, On His Own, Seabass and Cappa Bleu all ran in the race last year. The last two named filled minor places, yet current market leader On His Own’s race ended in more inglorious circumstances with him falling at second Becher’s. The facts don’t tell the full story, however, as On His Own had jumped extremely well up to then, just behind the leaders at the time, and was instantly earmarked by many for the 2013 renewal. Things have seemingly gone to plan in the meantime, his reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle deliberately delayed with the National in mind and his winning performance in that race pleasing to say the least. On His Own is generally hard to fault and there’s a case to be made for him being shorter than his current 10.0. If you’re getting a few on side in the National, On His Own definitely warrants being among them.
As mentioned above, Seabass and Cappa Bleu made it to the end last year (albeit in very different ways, as we’ll come back to) so we don’t have to speculate quite so much on their chances of a more fruitful second shot at the National. Seabass was prominent all the way under Katie Walsh, tying up only late in the day to leave the final, thrilling chapter between Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy. Seabass is generally a tough and straightforward type, who jumped very well on the whole that day. Did he do just a little too much too soon? Possibly. But did he do so to the extent that you’d fancy him to win from a 5-lb higher mark this time? Probably not.
Watching Cappa Bleu in the 2012 National was much like watching State of Play in the 2009, 2010 or 2011 editions. Both carried the colours of William Rucker, were trained by Evan Williams and stayed on well to make the places under Paul Moloney; and each time those to back them might well have furrowed their brow at how much their fancy had been left to do. Moloney’s habitual deliver-them-late style generally doesn’t suit the demands of a Grand National, with the vast majority of those that take a hand in the finish right up with the pace by the time the field jump three out. Last year, Cappa Bleu was still eighth jumping the last, but passed stout stayers like Ballabriggs and Hello Bud on the run-in to make fourth.
In mitigation, Cappa Bleu is generally ridden that way, but if you wanted further evidence that it’s a fine balancing act, look at his latest outing at Ascot. Racing from the same mark he’ll carry at Aintree, Cappa Bleu travelled best of all in a modestly-run three-mile race, but with a slight error three out he conceded first run to Vino Griego, never really looking like clawing the deficit back but staying on pleasingly nonetheless to draw clear of the remainder, two and a half lengths behind the winner. Vino Griego, of course, has since finishing second in a Cheltenham Festival handicap, so this tale serves to advertise how well-treated Cappa Bleu could be as much as it is one of caution over his rider’s patient approach.
If you want a masterclass in how to deliver a horse late, your normal go-to man would be Paul Carberry, whose ride on King John’s Castle in the 2008 Grand National must rank among the best not to win the race in recent times. Carberry has a National win to his name (on Bobbyjo in 1999) and is one of the most sought-after bookings for any hopeful. His ride this year is uncertain, but it could Chicago Grey, Carberry’s National ride last year who now finds himself top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for the 2013 renewal after success in a Grade 2 in Ireland last time. That improved performance has been put down to a breathing operation, but it was also the biggest move forward in a quietly-creeping campaign that would make even Carberry proud. A few runs in which Chicago Grey shaped as though better for the outing, punctuated with a promising showing in a Cheltenham handicap won by Monbeg Dude (who later won the Welsh National under an exemplary Carberry ride), were signs that he was in fair heart all along, yet he finds himself now 9 lb lower than in last year’s National. Chicago Grey’s jumping is something of a worry, though he can hardly be blamed for last year’s departure (brought down fifth) and may have just about the best man aboard to get him round safely.
There are another couple of Irish-trained challengers worthy of mention at bigger prices. Firstly there’s Tofino Bay, who probably won’t have escaped the gaze of many, having led for most of the run-in in the four-miler at the Festival before idling and allowing Back In Focus to nab him close home. He’s a likeable, sound-jumping front runner, the type that so often does well in the National, while he’s still on a tasty price assuming we can take his Cheltenham run at face value. Tofino Bay is reported to be an uncertain runner, owner Gigginstown House Stud seemingly yet to be convinced, so you may want to hold off for now in the hope that odds of 34.0 won’t contract too much should he ultimately get the go-ahead.
Finally we come to the most eye-catching of our selections, as he’s currently available at 44.0 in the ante-post betting. Like a few already mentioned, he’s trained in Ireland and ran in last year’s National (as well as that season’s Becher). However, what sets Rare Bob apart is that, despite his price, he’s ahead of all but Chicago Grey on the weight-adjusted Timeform ratings at the time of writing.
Rare Bob’s campaign so far has had a touch of the Chicago Greys about it, the overriding impression throughout 2012/3 being that he’s building up to something. It’s not difficult to guess what that something might be given he has been taken to a couple of the self-same races he ran in before last year’s National, in which he was brought down at the fifth before himself bringing down none other than Chicago Grey.
On his previous visit to Aintree, Rare Bob struggled with bottomless conditions when coming home a well-beaten fifth in West End Rocker’s Becher, but he jumped very well on the whole and was still in touch turning in before he dropped away. Stamina is unproven, though he’s yet to race beyond 25 furlongs on better ground, and with man-of-the-moment Bryan Cooper likely to take the ride, Rare Bob is likely to be much shorter than current odds at some point between now and half past four on National day.
That’s about it in terms of the analysis, but what about our original quandry? What should we be telling our loved ones to back in the Grand National? Covering a few of the more popular types, here’s a handy guide:
The father- Your lugubrious old man/uncle etc. tends to get more perverse enjoyment from an unlucky loser than actual enjoyment from a never-in-doubt winner. The horse for him is clearly Cappa Bleu: watch him fly home after losing his pitch at second Canal Turn!
The mother/girlfriend- Apologies for the generalisation, but the image of this person, whatever their gender or relationship, should strike with most: they can jump a little when a horse on the TV screen falls; they sometimes ask why their horse “isn’t winning” (has been held up); they often like greys. Chicago Grey for them, then, though you might want to explain in advance not to worry: that man Carberry knows precisely what he’s doing.
The Uni mate- He’ll send you a message on Facebook, precisely 364 days after his last correspondence, ribbing you again about that “nag” you gave him last year. You don’t fancy this schtick yet again come April 2014, so have him back On His Own, or Seabass each-way.
The part-timer- This one can exchange pleasantries about ‘Saturday’ racing, and probably knows the rough outline of the market leaders’ profiles. They might even have backed one of the favourites already, so throw them Rare Bob and Tofino Bay to add some piquancy to their ante-post portfolio.
You- This is probably what you’re really here for. You’ve heard the cases made for all of the above, and if you just like the warm glow of satisfaction that comes with backing the National winner then feel free to stick all six in; but for a more conventional two-against-the-field approach, make it Cappa Bleu and Rare Bob, who simply look to be the best value at current prices.
Recommendations:
Back Cappa Bleu @ 16.0 & Rare Bob @ 44.0 in the Grand National
Milesey ( betfair )
The weights for the 2013 John Smith’s Grand National.
The mercurial twelve-year-old, Tidal Bay, has enjoyed a new lease of life since joining last year’s winning trainer Paul Nicholls, notably when lowering the colours of the two current best Irish-trained chasers, Flemenstar and Sir des Champs, with a last-gasp win in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in late-December, and he holds strong claims of adding a Grand National win to his CV thanks to some leniency from BHA handicapper Phil Smith.
In recent years, Smith has adopted a policy of favouring those entries towards the head of the weights in a bid to encourage top-end quality runners in the Aintree showpiece. As a result, Tidal Bay has been allotted a mark of just 162 for the Grand National as opposed to his current BHA rating of 171.
Timeform’s Jumps Handicapper, Phil Turner, commented: “People shouldn’t be put off by the fact that Tidal Bay is top weight in the Grand National as he’s clearly the best-handicapped horse in the field.
“He’d be 9lb worse off with the vast majority of his Grand National rivals if meeting them on a conventional track. Indeed, he’s even due to carry 4lb less than when he finished runner-up to Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth in the Hennessy at Newbury earlier this season!”
Tidal Bay has tackled the Aintree fences just once before, unseating Brian Hughes at the tenth when a 28/1 shot in 2011 on his final outing for former trainer Howard Johnson.
Meanwhile, the Welsh-trained pair Cappa Bleu and Beshabar make the most appeal amongst the remainder on Timeform ratings for the four-and-a-half-mile marathon.
Turner added: “Cappa Bleu was a strong-finishing fourth to Neptune Collonges last year and arguably should have been asked for his effort earlier, so he’s definitely one for the shortlist. Beshabar has presumably had his training problems to have been so lightly raced of late, but he’s an out-and-out stayer who should be suited by the demands of Aintree.”
Timeform Weight-Adjusted Ratings
185 TIDAL BAY
180 BESHABAR
180 CAPPA BLEU
180? OSCAR TIME
179+ WYCK HILL
179 QUEL ESPRIT
179? IMPERIAL COMMANDER
178 ALBERTAS RUN
178 HARRY THE VIKING
178 RARE BOB
178 ROBERTO GOLDBACK
178? JESSIES DREAM
178$ WEIRD AL
Selected Others
176+ PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
176 BALLABRIGGS
176 THE PACKAGE
174p KATENKO
173 JOIN TOGETHER
172 SEABASS
172 SUNNYHILLBOY
170+ COLBERT STATION
168+ ON HIS OWN
The weights for the 2013 John Smith’s Grand National could be set to go up as several of those towards the head of the weights were withdrawn at the latest forfeit stage.
Of the top five on the racecard, only What A Friend looks a probable runner at this stage, with Albertas Run, Quito de La Roque and Katenko among 16 defections on Tuesday. Imperial Commander, 1 lb ahead of What A Friend, remains among the entries but a combination of lingering injury concerns and an alternative engagement in the Bowl mean he’s far from a certain starter.
Among the more fancied runners that were pulled out were Bobbyjo Chase winner Roi du Mee and Badger Ales Trophy winner The Package, the latter of which was pulled up at the Cheltenham Festival last week.
The others to be withdrawn on Tuesday were Calgary Bay, Midnight Chase, Planet of Sound, Jessies Dream, Problema Tic, Frisco Depot, Alfie Sherrin, Matuhi, Tartak, Summery Justice and Odysseas.
The latest raft of defections means that runs are guaranteed for the likes of Wyck Hill, Chicago Grey (now Timeform top-rated following his win in the Red Mills Chase) and The Rainbow Hunter. Mr Moonshine, runner-up to Cape Tribulation in the Rowland Meyrick over Christmas, is now in the dreaded forty-first position with less than three weeks to go before the race.
was Kabbas runnin today?..what happened to him?
Still no run yet, and no entries coming up in the near future, so no idea, may have picked up an injury, but it’s only been off track since 18th February.
Milesey
I thot someone made a comment he’d run today and lost n cost them a treble…maybe I was dreaming!!
If it ran it wouldn’t have lost ;)
Maggie Pink cost me my treble today :(
Milesey
Aye, a pity about Maggie for ya..was watching a wee bit of Racing Channel..and the trainer was bullish about McDermott…the winnner Putin?? seemed to be getting well touted…sure u know better than most the vagries of racing Milesey!
A HELPING HAND
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Grand National Win Bet Example
Lets say you bet £10 on a horse to Win at 12/1.
With odds of “twelve to one” this means if the horse wins, you WIN 12x your stake + you get your original stake back too.
So you end up with 10×12 + 10 = £130
However if the horse doesn’t win then you lose your £10.
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Grand National Each Way Betting Example
An Each Way (EW) bet is essentially 2 bets: A win bet AND a place bet.
So a £10EW bet is actually a £20 bet – £10 win and £10 place.
The odds you get on the win are the same as the quoted odds, but the odds you get on the place are lower, usually 1/4 of the quoted odds for the Grand National.
So lets say you bet £10EW (a £20 bet) on a horse at 20-1 with place terms of 1/4 1,2,3,4 . Lets look at the two bets separately.
The Win £10 will pay £10 x 20 + £10 stake back = £210 if the horse wins, but nothing if it doesn’t win.
The Place £10 will pay £10 x 20 x 1/4 + £10 stake back = £60 if the horse finishes 1,2,3 or 4 (or however many places your grand national bookmaker is paying).
So in combination your £20 bet will pay £210 + £60 (both parts of the bet) if the horse wins but just £60 if it finished 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. There’s no difference in payout between any of these places. (ie. you get no more for it finishing 2nd than you do for finishing 4th)
Milesey ( betfair )
Great read milesey, Im not a racing expert but after a good friend of mine gave me cue card as a tip last yr at cheltenham I have a soft spot for the horse (think it was supreme novices) it lost but nevertheless I backed it in the rynair and its previous run were captain cris looked to me the Winner going too the last, I was surprised how easy cue card won at cheltenham, but do u think he could beat sprinter?
The short answer is NO
and the long answer is NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Cue card hasn’t a chance against Sprinter, and cue card will not beat Flemenstar either if Flemenstar is on form. I’m not sure they will risk sprinter anyway at this distance, i think they will duck it and head to Punchestown if i’m honest, but we’ll see.
Milesey
Milesey, I’ll post that Grand National preview sometime tomorrow. Heading home to walk the dug. A couple of football tips up but will have another look about lunchtime when I get back from the boy’s football (if it’s on).
If anyone followed my golf tips then here is the state of play at the moment.
In the Arnold Palmer we are well of the leader who is an in form TIGER WOODS, seems to have re-discovered his best abd has surged up the leaderboard to be the current leader on -11
Well the nearest pick i have is Bubba who is +1, so no chance at all as this tournament goes into the 4th round.
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Each way tips for the battle at Bay Hill
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Back Jason Dufner @ 41.0 +4 CUT
Back Jim Furyk @ 36.0 +4
Back Lee Westwood @ 34.0 +2
Back Bubba Watson @ 29.0 +1
Back Ernie Els @ 71.0 +6 CUT
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I am abit more hopefull though in the Maybank with charl schwartzel sitting in 2nd place on -10 just 1 off the leader and with Pablo not too far behind on -7 things look alot better with 2 rounds left to play, but alot of delays due to the weather.
Maybank Malaysian Open
Charl Schwartzel @ 7.4 -10
Back Michael Campbell @ 110.0 +2 CUT
Back Pablo Larrazabal @ 110.0 -7
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Milesey
They’ve cut the Malaysian Open to 54 holes due to all the weather delays milesey, so it should end at end of play today should everyone complete the last round
After reading your preview I went a tenner on Schwartzel & £5 win & top 10 on Campbell & Larrazabal.
Looking good for the Schwartzel win & Larrazabal top 10, for obvious reasons a Larrazabal win would be better!
Maybank Malaysian Open
Charl Schwartzel @ 7.4 -10 * 5TH *
Pablo Larrazabal @ 110.0 -9 * 6TH *
so is that it then after round 3 ?
Milesey
So who’s going to win?
Yes milesey Malaysian open finished as al says, ment to say before I appreciate the golf tips so keep em coming :-)
AFTER midnight the wind began to howl as if all the cats in the place had been on the roof, and to shake the shutters. The sea roared round the Fa-riglione as if all the bulls of the Fair of Saint Alfio had been there, and the day opened as black as the soul of Judas. In short, an ugly September Sunday dawned a Sunday in false September which lets loose a tempest on one between the cup and the lip, like a shot from behind a prickly-pear. The village boats were all drawn up on the beach, and well fastened to the great stones under the washing-tank; so the boys amused themselves by hissing and howling whenever there passed by some lonely sail far out at sea, tossed amid mist and foam, dancing up and down as if chased by the devil; the women, instead, made the sign of the cross, as if they could see with their eyes the poor fellows who were on board.
鈥淣o, Cousin Alfio,鈥?answered Mena, with starting tears. 鈥?I swear it by the soul of this innocent creature in my arms; that is not my motive. But I cannot marry.鈥?