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MILESEY'S back with some more tips and just a reminder that Huntingdon is off due to a waterlogged course.
His nap on Thursday is Storm and let's hope it runs a stormer.
Kempton 6.30
STORM
Stepping up to a mile after finding 7f last time out not enough for it's blistering pace at the end when fast closing the leader down but the line coming too quick and finishing 2nd by a head that day.
Kempton 6.0
ATLANTIS CROSSING
Is improving with every race on the poly and should run well again. Stepping up over 1 mile, all the wins previous have been over 7f, so could be a negative against this one. But in a four-horse race, rated 87, he is clear of the next best by 13 points … so should be too good.
Wolverhampton 5.50
BIG SYLV
Last run-out at track and trip finished second behind Travelling and therefore is given another chance today to score off its mark of 62. This four-year-old filly has scored before at Wolverhampton and should take plenty of beating at her best.
Wolverhampton 3:35
On the eve of the turf season's opening meeting at Doncaster, class 6 handicap on the polytrack.
Hidden Link built on platform set in maidens when making a successful handicap debut here (9.5f) in January. Unable to build on that in both runs since but he's still lightly raced and ought to stay 1½m.
Gabrial The Duke's new yard have quickly found the key to him, winning twice over 1¼m at Lingfield last month and better form when judged touched off by a progressive rival in hat-trick bid. Up 6lb but big player.
Moaning Butcher is a compact colt who only hinted at ability amidst inexperience in three juvenile outings in the autumn. In excellent hands and the market may help in relation to stablemate Train Hard.
Tebee's Oasis still looked to be learning when third of six in a Lingfield maiden over this trip last month. Clearly one of yard's lesser lights but alotted a modest opening mark.
Train Hard is stoutly bred and achieved just modest form in a trio of quick runs at 2 yrs in October at up to 9f. Gelded in the interim and open to improvement now handicapping up in trip.
Annalova looks one of yard's lesser lights, last of six on second handicap start upped to 1¼m last month. Not hard to look elsewhere.
1. Gabrial The Duke
2. Train Hard
3. Hidden Link
Verdict: Train Hard looks the pick of the handicap debutants but in Gabrial The Duke he meets an established rival in excellent heart and is the safest option. Hidden Link may also have more to offer.
This is it for now … watch the thread though for I'll be hitting a few in running as the day goes on. But don't worry there will be plenty of notice before the races to get on.
Milesey
GambleAware
the Lincoln Handicap, set to be run on testing ground at Doncaster on Saturday…
Punters have been dealt a plethora of fiendishly-difficult handicaps to conquer in recent weeks, and Saturday sees another two take place at Doncaster in the shape of the Spring Mile and the Lincoln Handicap. Flat aficionados have been eagerly awaiting the Lincoln, the Heritage Handicap that takes top-billing on the first weekend of the 2013 British turf Flat season, and an ante-post market has long been formed.
Unsurprisingly, considering their generation’s record in the race, a host of unexposed four-year-olds head the market, traditional bookmakers installing the William Haggas-trained Nine Realms as favourite, though his current Betfair price, which has been fluctuating wildly of late, would indicate his participation is in some doubt. This is probably down to Haggas’ fears about how his contender will handle the testing ground and, though he could easily make a mockery of a mark of 93, it looks increasingly unlikely that he will run.
Perhaps I am still in Cheltenham Festival mode, where course-and-distance form is considered king, but it is hard to escape the attraction of Brae Hill, now a gnarled seven-year-old veteran, who has repeatedly performed with distinction under the conditions he will face on Saturday, finishing runner-up in this contest two years ago before winning last year. The Doncaster straight mile, of course, provides a fair test and doesn’t lend itself to specialist performers in the same way as Cheltenham’s undulations do, but it is the fact that Brae Hill has been specifically targeted at the race for the last two years, producing such good first-time-out performances, which makes him very interesting.
True, his form did tail off later in the season, but that means that Richard Fahey’s charge has slipped back down the weights and is able to compete from the same mark he won off last year, leaving him holding exceptional claims. It is also worth noting that, though winning last year’s Lincoln on a sound surface, Brae Hill handles testing ground extremely well, two of his better efforts last season coming on heavy ground, and, unlike many of his rivals, he will not be inconvenienced by a further deterioration of ground conditions.
It is conceivable that something will be further ahead of the assessor than Brae Hill, but at 25.0 he represents a spot of ante-post value as he won off this mark before, his chance isn’t massively reliant on the weather forecast and his trainer, Richard Fahey, has his string in decent enough nick.
One such unexposed, potential improver could be the John Gosden-trained Lahaag. Gosden has another interesting entry in the shape of the lightly-raced Eshtibaak, a horse with form over further, but the market suggests that Lahaag could be the first string. Lahaag has not appeared to be the most straightforward of individuals, but he certainly possesses a fair amount of ability, progressing with every run last year, notching up two wins and two seconds from four starts. As an added plus, he is proven on a testing surface, hails from one of the leading yards in the country and is open to further progress, both mentally and physically. Whether his bare form entitles him to be trading at 8.4 for a race of this nature, however, is a matter of debate.
Failure in Wolverhampton’s Lincoln Trial hasn’t always been a barrier to success on the big day; in fact, a colleague of mine assures me that Very Wise, William Haggas’ 2007 Lincoln winner, was the last horse to graduate from the Trial and prevail in the Lincoln. Where did he finish at Wolverhampton? Well, he didn’t. He was pulled-up. I’m not convinced that a statistical sample on that scale will be enough to persuade connections of this year’s winner, Strictly Silver, that a non-completion would have increased their chances, although, through the receipt of a 5 lb penalty, it could be argued that victory has made the grey’s job even tougher.
Strictly Silver is a steadily-progressive type, and will once again have the services of Robert Tart- one of the finds of the all-weather season and exceptional value for his claim- but he may find his new mark slightly beyond him in a competitive event such as this.
In second place at Wolverhampton was the Marco Botti-trained Guest of Honour, a progressive performer who looks attractively treated on turf compared to his all-weather mark. He does, however, look extremely likely to miss the cut and it could be left to Solar Deity to represent one of the most in-form trainers in the country.
The issue with Solar Deity, though, is the concern that he could be a much better performer on polytrack than on turf. His form really took off last year when switched to the artificial surface and though that could be coincidental, with a break also perhaps a significant factor, there has to be a worry that he will be unable to continue his upwardly-mobile profile on turf, particularly on the forecast testing ground.
In summary, it looks like a typically-competitive renewal of the Lincoln, comprising a healthy mix of young hopefuls and old warriors. The inclement weather will be a concern for plenty, but not for last year’s winner Brae Hill and, while he will face some progressive horses, he looks primed to make a bold bid off the same mark as last year.
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If you’re the only racing fan in your family or circle of friends, this time of year is one fraught with danger. The once-a-year punters are getting ready for their day. Very soon they will be in touch, and they will ask you expectantly: what is going to win the Grand National?
The annoyance of this is that the National is popularly regarded as just about the hardest race on the calendar to pick the winner of. Were you to ask a bookworm to sum up War And Peace in a sentence, say, or tell a wine enthusiast that you’d like advice on the best vines to plant in Ayrshire, you’d rightly be laughed out of the room. However, we racing fans are expected to crack our toughest puzzle, to the point that a Timeform employee’s professional reputation can be on the line if the appointed creature comes down before first Becher’s…
Of course, we secretly like to play up the difficulty of the National. In reality, it’s a high-end handicap chase in which the only specialist requirement is the ability to both jump and stay a little better than your average chaser. We’re helped further by the fact that increasing numbers of those that line up on the day have previous course experience, which takes out much of the guesswork over which horses will be suited by the famous spruce fences.
You don’t need to look far among this year’s contenders to find horses that have already tackled the course. Among the favourites alone, On His Own, Seabass and Cappa Bleu all ran in the race last year. The last two named filled minor places, yet current market leader On His Own’s race ended in more inglorious circumstances with him falling at second Becher’s. The facts don’t tell the full story, however, as On His Own had jumped extremely well up to then, just behind the leaders at the time, and was instantly earmarked by many for the 2013 renewal. Things have seemingly gone to plan in the meantime, his reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle deliberately delayed with the National in mind and his winning performance in that race pleasing to say the least. On His Own is generally hard to fault and there’s a case to be made for him being shorter than his current 10.0. If you’re getting a few on side in the National, On His Own definitely warrants being among them.
As mentioned above, Seabass and Cappa Bleu made it to the end last year (albeit in very different ways, as we’ll come back to) so we don’t have to speculate quite so much on their chances of a more fruitful second shot at the National. Seabass was prominent all the way under Katie Walsh, tying up only late in the day to leave the final, thrilling chapter between Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy. Seabass is generally a tough and straightforward type, who jumped very well on the whole that day. Did he do just a little too much too soon? Possibly. But did he do so to the extent that you’d fancy him to win from a 5-lb higher mark this time? Probably not.
Watching Cappa Bleu in the 2012 National was much like watching State of Play in the 2009, 2010 or 2011 editions. Both carried the colours of William Rucker, were trained by Evan Williams and stayed on well to make the places under Paul Moloney; and each time those to back them might well have furrowed their brow at how much their fancy had been left to do. Moloney’s habitual deliver-them-late style generally doesn’t suit the demands of a Grand National, with the vast majority of those that take a hand in the finish right up with the pace by the time the field jump three out. Last year, Cappa Bleu was still eighth jumping the last, but passed stout stayers like Ballabriggs and Hello Bud on the run-in to make fourth.
In mitigation, Cappa Bleu is generally ridden that way, but if you wanted further evidence that it’s a fine balancing act, look at his latest outing at Ascot. Racing from the same mark he’ll carry at Aintree, Cappa Bleu travelled best of all in a modestly-run three-mile race, but with a slight error three out he conceded first run to Vino Griego, never really looking like clawing the deficit back but staying on pleasingly nonetheless to draw clear of the remainder, two and a half lengths behind the winner. Vino Griego, of course, has since finishing second in a Cheltenham Festival handicap, so this tale serves to advertise how well-treated Cappa Bleu could be as much as it is one of caution over his rider’s patient approach.
If you want a masterclass in how to deliver a horse late, your normal go-to man would be Paul Carberry, whose ride on King John’s Castle in the 2008 Grand National must rank among the best not to win the race in recent times. Carberry has a National win to his name (on Bobbyjo in 1999) and is one of the most sought-after bookings for any hopeful. His ride this year is uncertain, but it could Chicago Grey, Carberry’s National ride last year who now finds himself top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for the 2013 renewal after success in a Grade 2 in Ireland last time. That improved performance has been put down to a breathing operation, but it was also the biggest move forward in a quietly-creeping campaign that would make even Carberry proud. A few runs in which Chicago Grey shaped as though better for the outing, punctuated with a promising showing in a Cheltenham handicap won by Monbeg Dude (who later won the Welsh National under an exemplary Carberry ride), were signs that he was in fair heart all along, yet he finds himself now 9 lb lower than in last year’s National. Chicago Grey’s jumping is something of a worry, though he can hardly be blamed for last year’s departure (brought down fifth) and may have just about the best man aboard to get him round safely.
There are another couple of Irish-trained challengers worthy of mention at bigger prices. Firstly there’s Tofino Bay, who probably won’t have escaped the gaze of many, having led for most of the run-in in the four-miler at the Festival before idling and allowing Back In Focus to nab him close home. He’s a likeable, sound-jumping front runner, the type that so often does well in the National, while he’s still on a tasty price assuming we can take his Cheltenham run at face value. Tofino Bay is reported to be an uncertain runner, owner Gigginstown House Stud seemingly yet to be convinced, so you may want to hold off for now in the hope that odds of 34.0 won’t contract too much should he ultimately get the go-ahead.
Finally we come to the most eye-catching of our selections, as he’s currently available at 44.0 in the ante-post betting. Like a few already mentioned, he’s trained in Ireland and ran in last year’s National (as well as that season’s Becher). However, what sets Rare Bob apart is that, despite his price, he’s ahead of all but Chicago Grey on the weight-adjusted Timeform ratings at the time of writing.
Rare Bob’s campaign so far has had a touch of the Chicago Greys about it, the overriding impression throughout 2012/3 being that he’s building up to something. It’s not difficult to guess what that something might be given he has been taken to a couple of the self-same races he ran in before last year’s National, in which he was brought down at the fifth before himself bringing down none other than Chicago Grey.
On his previous visit to Aintree, Rare Bob struggled with bottomless conditions when coming home a well-beaten fifth in West End Rocker’s Becher, but he jumped very well on the whole and was still in touch turning in before he dropped away. Stamina is unproven, though he’s yet to race beyond 25 furlongs on better ground, and with man-of-the-moment Bryan Cooper likely to take the ride, Rare Bob is likely to be much shorter than current odds at some point between now and half past four on National day.
That’s about it in terms of the analysis, but what about our original quandry? What should we be telling our loved ones to back in the Grand National? Covering a few of the more popular types, here’s a handy guide:
The father- Your lugubrious old man/uncle etc. tends to get more perverse enjoyment from an unlucky loser than actual enjoyment from a never-in-doubt winner. The horse for him is clearly Cappa Bleu: watch him fly home after losing his pitch at second Canal Turn!
The mother/girlfriend- Apologies for the generalisation, but the image of this person, whatever their gender or relationship, should strike with most: they can jump a little when a horse on the TV screen falls; they sometimes ask why their horse “isn’t winning” (has been held up); they often like greys. Chicago Grey for them, then, though you might want to explain in advance not to worry: that man Carberry knows precisely what he’s doing.
The Uni mate- He’ll send you a message on Facebook, precisely 364 days after his last correspondence, ribbing you again about that “nag” you gave him last year. You don’t fancy this schtick yet again come April 2014, so have him back On His Own, or Seabass each-way.
The part-timer- This one can exchange pleasantries about ‘Saturday’ racing, and probably knows the rough outline of the market leaders’ profiles. They might even have backed one of the favourites already, so throw them Rare Bob and Tofino Bay to add some piquancy to their ante-post portfolio.
You- This is probably what you’re really here for. You’ve heard the cases made for all of the above, and if you just like the warm glow of satisfaction that comes with backing the National winner then feel free to stick all six in; but for a more conventional two-against-the-field approach, make it Cappa Bleu and Rare Bob, who simply look to be the best value at current prices.
Recommendations:
Back Cappa Bleu @ 16.0 & Rare Bob @ 44.0 in the Grand National
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Milesey ( BETFAIR )
PLACE AND WIN
—————
Kinglami in the 19.00 at Kempton. This colt finished sixth to Good Luck Charm over this course last November. He delivered a challenge a furlong from home, but could only stay on at the one pace and finished well beaten.
He has some solid form in the book, and could go close at a decent price if reproducing his best . At present he is trading at 9.8 on the exchange.
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It’s fair to say that the £3,000 paid by Christian and Sophie Leech for Nicene Creed (14:40 Chepstow) is a rather more realistic price than the £175k shelled out by agent Aiden Murphy on behalf of Graham and Diana Whateley a couple of years previously. The Hernando gelding was once fancied to beat Cue Card when the pair were novice hurdlers, but they have taken diverging routes since then. While he’s clearly been a disappointment, it’s notable how far he’s fallen in the weights in recent times, and the Leech team are belatedly building on a reputation for shrewdness (Christian plays gamekeeper-turned-poacher having previously worked as a handicapper at the BHA).
Nicene Creed was effective in cheekpieces and a tongue tie for Philip Hobbs, and it’s notable that new connections have seen fit to resort to the headgear for the first time today. It’s not too many runs ago that he was made favourite to win a competitive Aintree handicap off a BHA mark of 120, and that makes a current rating of 87 look very interesting indeed. Needless to say, he’s shown little in a fair while, but was notably tenderly handled when beaten at Catterick last time, and the yard has found form with a vengeance in the last few weeks. Of her last 10 runners, a trio (Olympian Boy, Le Grand Chene and Anteros) have won, and a further 5 have made the frame, with the most recent runners from the yard both trading very short in running. The trip may seem on the sharp side, but he has given the impression that it’s his mulish attitude which has caused him to go in snatches before, and he’d be more than capable of dominating these rivals should he be inclined.
Plenty to take on trust, but a double figure price more than makes up for that, and I’d expect more money to arrive if connections do believe they’ve sweetened this character up. I’d be concerned if there was support for stable companion Shoulda, who appears the first string on jockey bookings, but he’s hard to make any case for on recent form, and I’m confident that Nicene Creed is the stable’s “intended” here.
In the 15:45, the obvious selection is recent Towcester winner Opera Og, who appeared to win with plenty in hand on that belated return, and is officially 6 lb ahead of his mark despite a penalty. He’s taken quick races in the past, and is certainly worth his current rating, but a second run back after an absence is always a red flag, and minor doubts about the suitability of today’s left-handed track add to the concerns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him coast home, but I’m not going to pay at odds on to find out.
With the interesting Lady Willa out, and the veteran Star Galaxy having looked a non-stayer over C&D in the past, the only conceivable danger is the Seamus Mullins mare Time To Think, who had rather more in hand than the margin by which she fended off Financial Climate and Meet The Critics at Fontwell last time (second and fourth have been placed since), as she idled badly after being left clear 2 out, only to rally when challenged on the run-in. That suggests a 3 lb rise is very fair, and her attacking style will suit this track. She’s a decent price at present, and while backers are slightly reliant on Opera Og running flat, she still looks sure to give a big run in the circumstances.
At Wolverhampton, Haadeeth looks a cracking back to lay in the 15:05, having shown himself well treated with an excellent second to Valdaw at Kempton on his penultimate start. He seemed to blow a good opportunity when beaten a neck by Greenhead High over C&D last time, but the winner was very well ridden from the front there, kicking off the bend and just withholding Haadeeth’s late burst. That was the fourth time in 5 starts that Haadeeth has traded at 1.55 or shorter, and he looks certain to give another good account. His strike-rate is a concern, and he’s won less than he should, so the way to play him again is to back him at current odds, with the view to laying back some, all or a multiple of the stake at short odds in running. Miss Bunter is the obvious beneficiary should the selection flatter again, and she looked unlucky when forced wide here last time. The concern for her is that she’s again got an outside draw, but that may not be insurmountable if she’s ridden with dash.
Back Nicene Creed in the 14:40 Chepstow @ 11.0
Back Time To Think in the 15:45 Chepstow @ 5.2
Back to Lay Haadeeth in the 15:05 Wolverhampton @ 4.6
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The switch to the David Simcock yard has seen Gabrial The Duke (15:35 Wolverhampton) improve out of all recognition of late, winning twice before failing in the hat-trick bid at Lingfield last time, coming up against another progressive rival. He has a 6 lb higher mark to defy today, but he looks like a progressive individual and sets a decent standard. It will be no walkover, however, as Hidden Link and Train Hard could still have plenty to offer, but it is Gabrial The Duke who enters this contest at the top of his game, with the step up to a mile and a half looking like it could also have a positive effect.
A winner over C&D on his penultimate start, where he ended a long losing run in decisive fashion, McBirney (19:30 Kempton) possibly didn’t handle the surface at Southwell last time and should be forgiven that effort. He really impressed when registering a two-length victory here two starts ago, overcoming a troubled passage, weaving through the field and quickening well in the final furlong, and he still looks reasonably well treated based on his old form.
Marco Botti has his string in excellent form at the moment and his representative, Camachoice, looks to hold exceptional claims in the 20:30 at Kempton. Camachoice showed much-improved form on his handicap debut at this venue in January, justifying strong support in first-time cheekpieces as he quickened well and forged clear of his rivals in the final furlong, and there is little reason to suspect that the inexperienced three-year-old can’t produce a better effort here. He has been given a short break since that success but, with the potential of further improvement to come, he ought to prove difficult to beat.
Back Gabrial The Duke @ 2.52 in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton
Back McBirney @ 4.7 in the 19:30 at Kempton
Back Camachoice @ 3.35 in the 20:30 at Kempton
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Wolverhampton for the 14:30 handicap over five furlongs and Steelcut is showing some nice support into 5.9 from 7.8. Mark Buckley’s nine-year-old has a number factors going for him today. From 12 starts his record over course and distance reads four wins, three seconds and a third. Graham Lee returns for the first time since his last win and cheekpieces have been reapplied which have proved very successful in the past for this gelding.
Back Steelcut @ 5.90 14:30 Wolverhampton
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over to Chepstow for the day’s negative in the 16:20 handicap chase over three miles. Seigneur Des Bois has drifted out to 3.35 from 2.6 despite winning last time out on his first run for Tom George. Previous form suggests he is untrustworthy however. This will be his first run at Chepstow – a course which can take a bit of learning. Seigneur Des Bois faces a step up in trip and a penalty for his win, while his rivals – who are proven under today’s conditions and at the course – are attracting market support.
Lay Seigneur Des Bois @ 3.35 16:20 Chepstow
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
cant wait until flat season starts :) :)
Ew 4fold at each meeting
CHEPSTOW
2.40 Come On Annie
3.15 Maurice The Athlete
4.55 Bobble Boru
5.30 Gentle George
WOLVERHAMPTON
2.30 Angelo Poliziano
3.35 Gabrial The Duke
4.10 Alhaban
5.50 Big Sylv
KEMPTON
7.00 Al Khan
8.00 Flying Tempo
8.30 Club House
9.00 Pastrol Jet
Good luck all
Atlantis Crossing non-runner
bet of the day mcbirney 730 kempton 3 to 1
PLACE AND WIN
—————
Kinglami in the 19.00 at Kempton. This colt finished sixth to Good Luck Charm over this course last November. He delivered a challenge a furlong from home, but could only stay on at the one pace and finished well beaten.
He has some solid form in the book, and could go close at a decent price if reproducing his best . At present he is trading at 9.8 on the exchange.
————————————————–
It’s fair to say that the £3,000 paid by Christian and Sophie Leech for Nicene Creed (14:40 Chepstow) is a rather more realistic price than the £175k shelled out by agent Aiden Murphy on behalf of Graham and Diana Whateley a couple of years previously. The Hernando gelding was once fancied to beat Cue Card when the pair were novice hurdlers, but they have taken diverging routes since then. While he’s clearly been a disappointment, it’s notable how far he’s fallen in the weights in recent times, and the Leech team are belatedly building on a reputation for shrewdness (Christian plays gamekeeper-turned-poacher having previously worked as a handicapper at the BHA).
Nicene Creed was effective in cheekpieces and a tongue tie for Philip Hobbs, and it’s notable that new connections have seen fit to resort to the headgear for the first time today. It’s not too many runs ago that he was made favourite to win a competitive Aintree handicap off a BHA mark of 120, and that makes a current rating of 87 look very interesting indeed. Needless to say, he’s shown little in a fair while, but was notably tenderly handled when beaten at Catterick last time, and the yard has found form with a vengeance in the last few weeks. Of her last 10 runners, a trio (Olympian Boy, Le Grand Chene and Anteros) have won, and a further 5 have made the frame, with the most recent runners from the yard both trading very short in running. The trip may seem on the sharp side, but he has given the impression that it’s his mulish attitude which has caused him to go in snatches before, and he’d be more than capable of dominating these rivals should he be inclined.
Plenty to take on trust, but a double figure price more than makes up for that, and I’d expect more money to arrive if connections do believe they’ve sweetened this character up. I’d be concerned if there was support for stable companion Shoulda, who appears the first string on jockey bookings, but he’s hard to make any case for on recent form, and I’m confident that Nicene Creed is the stable’s “intended” here.
In the 15:45, the obvious selection is recent Towcester winner Opera Og, who appeared to win with plenty in hand on that belated return, and is officially 6 lb ahead of his mark despite a penalty. He’s taken quick races in the past, and is certainly worth his current rating, but a second run back after an absence is always a red flag, and minor doubts about the suitability of today’s left-handed track add to the concerns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him coast home, but I’m not going to pay at odds on to find out.
With the interesting Lady Willa out, and the veteran Star Galaxy having looked a non-stayer over C&D in the past, the only conceivable danger is the Seamus Mullins mare Time To Think, who had rather more in hand than the margin by which she fended off Financial Climate and Meet The Critics at Fontwell last time (second and fourth have been placed since), as she idled badly after being left clear 2 out, only to rally when challenged on the run-in. That suggests a 3 lb rise is very fair, and her attacking style will suit this track. She’s a decent price at present, and while backers are slightly reliant on Opera Og running flat, she still looks sure to give a big run in the circumstances.
At Wolverhampton, Haadeeth looks a cracking back to lay in the 15:05, having shown himself well treated with an excellent second to Valdaw at Kempton on his penultimate start. He seemed to blow a good opportunity when beaten a neck by Greenhead High over C&D last time, but the winner was very well ridden from the front there, kicking off the bend and just withholding Haadeeth’s late burst. That was the fourth time in 5 starts that Haadeeth has traded at 1.55 or shorter, and he looks certain to give another good account. His strike-rate is a concern, and he’s won less than he should, so the way to play him again is to back him at current odds, with the view to laying back some, all or a multiple of the stake at short odds in running. Miss Bunter is the obvious beneficiary should the selection flatter again, and she looked unlucky when forced wide here last time. The concern for her is that she’s again got an outside draw, but that may not be insurmountable if she’s ridden with dash.
Back Nicene Creed in the 14:40 Chepstow @ 11.0
Back Time To Think in the 15:45 Chepstow @ 5.2
Back to Lay Haadeeth in the 15:05 Wolverhampton @ 4.6
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The switch to the David Simcock yard has seen Gabrial The Duke (15:35 Wolverhampton) improve out of all recognition of late, winning twice before failing in the hat-trick bid at Lingfield last time, coming up against another progressive rival. He has a 6 lb higher mark to defy today, but he looks like a progressive individual and sets a decent standard. It will be no walkover, however, as Hidden Link and Train Hard could still have plenty to offer, but it is Gabrial The Duke who enters this contest at the top of his game, with the step up to a mile and a half looking like it could also have a positive effect.
A winner over C&D on his penultimate start, where he ended a long losing run in decisive fashion, McBirney (19:30 Kempton) possibly didn’t handle the surface at Southwell last time and should be forgiven that effort. He really impressed when registering a two-length victory here two starts ago, overcoming a troubled passage, weaving through the field and quickening well in the final furlong, and he still looks reasonably well treated based on his old form.
Marco Botti has his string in excellent form at the moment and his representative, Camachoice, looks to hold exceptional claims in the 20:30 at Kempton. Camachoice showed much-improved form on his handicap debut at this venue in January, justifying strong support in first-time cheekpieces as he quickened well and forged clear of his rivals in the final furlong, and there is little reason to suspect that the inexperienced three-year-old can’t produce a better effort here. He has been given a short break since that success but, with the potential of further improvement to come, he ought to prove difficult to beat.
Back Gabrial The Duke @ 2.52 in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton
Back McBirney @ 4.7 in the 19:30 at Kempton
Back Camachoice @ 3.35 in the 20:30 at Kempton
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Wolverhampton for the 14:30 handicap over five furlongs and Steelcut is showing some nice support into 5.9 from 7.8. Mark Buckley’s nine-year-old has a number factors going for him today. From 12 starts his record over course and distance reads four wins, three seconds and a third. Graham Lee returns for the first time since his last win and cheekpieces have been reapplied which have proved very successful in the past for this gelding.
Back Steelcut @ 5.90 14:30 Wolverhampton
————————————————-
over to Chepstow for the day’s negative in the 16:20 handicap chase over three miles. Seigneur Des Bois has drifted out to 3.35 from 2.6 despite winning last time out on his first run for Tom George. Previous form suggests he is untrustworthy however. This will be his first run at Chepstow – a course which can take a bit of learning. Seigneur Des Bois faces a step up in trip and a penalty for his win, while his rivals – who are proven under today’s conditions and at the course – are attracting market support.
Lay Seigneur Des Bois @ 3.35 16:20 Chepstow
Milesey ( Betfair )
——————
KEMPTON PLACEPOT
—————–
18.00 – With Atlantis Crossing a non runner there isn’t much between the remaining three runners, all arriving in good heart. Including all three and hoping the outsider of the trio prevails is probably the best way to go.
18.30 – On all known evidence this looks a very weak maiden, and it’s hard to envisage Storm not making the frame after an unlucky second on debut at Lingfield last month.
19.00 – The form of Al Khan’s win over this C&D earlier this month has worked out well and his latest second at Wolverhampton last week shows he’s still in good order. He makes plenty of appeal but Shaunas Spirit may also be worth including, having had valid excuses on both starts since her C&D win in January.
19.30 – McBirney was well held last time but that run was on fibresand, and before that he readily beat a subsequent winner over this C&D. He can be expected to bounce back off only 4 lb higher. With only two places available Mister Bob is also added to the perm. He may need to improve from this opening mark but he’s bred to be useful and is by far the least exposed in the field.
20.00 – Several of these are open to progress at middle distances, notably Alshan Fajer and Dark Justice, but Flying Tempo is the pick of the weights by some way judged on a career best last time. JD Rockefeller failed to land a gamble on his handicap bow, but that support suggests he’ll do better at some point, so is also included.
20.30 – Carry On Sydney and Gambolling Den are open to further improvement now handicapping and are likely to have a big say in matters, but Camachoice was quite impressive when breaking his duck in this headgear over C&D in January, and could be worth banking on in the finale.
Selections:
18:00 – 2,3,4
18:30 – 8
19:00 – 3,7
19:30 – 3,7
20:00 – 1,5
20:30 – 2
= 24 lines
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
FOOTBALL
——–
Recommended Bet: Back England U21 to win to nil @ 2.3
Recommended Bets
Back Italy to win at 4.0
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.14
Netherlands U21 (AWAY) @ 1.96
Recommended Bet: Back Oostende @ 1.75 to beat White Star Woluwe
———————————
PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS
———————
Andy Hamilton v Simon Whitlock
Draw
Gary Anderson v Michael van Gerwen
Michael van Gerwen to win
Robert Thornton v Adrian Lewis
Adrian Lewis to win
Wes Newton v Phil Taylor
Taylor to win 7-4
TAYLOR WIN
James Wade v Raymond van Barneveld
Van Barneveld to average Over 97.5
DRAW
——————————————————-
HORSE RACING 21st MARCH
————————
**NAP**
KEMPTON 6.30
**STORM**
PLACE AND WIN
—————
Kinglami in the 19.00 at Kempton
Back Nicene Creed in the 14:40 Chepstow @ 11.0
Back Time To Think in the 15:45 Chepstow @ 5.2
Back to Lay Haadeeth in the 15:05 Wolverhampton @ 4.6
Back Gabrial The Duke @ 2.52 in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton
Back McBirney @ 4.7 in the 19:30 at Kempton
Back Camachoice @ 3.35 in the 20:30 at Kempton
Back Steelcut @ 5.90 14:30 Wolverhampton
Lay Seigneur Des Bois @ 3.35 16:20 Chepstow
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50
BIG SYLV
Wolverhampton 3:35
1. Gabrial The Duke
2. Train Hard
3. Hidden Link
Milesey
RESULTS IN SO FAR…………………….
Back Nicene Creed in the 14:40 Chepstow @ 11.0 * WIN *
Back Time To Think in the 15:45 Chepstow @ 5.2 * WIN *
Lay Seigneur Des Bois @ 3.35 16:20 Chepstow * 3RD, WIN *
Back to Lay Haadeeth in the 15:05 Wolverhampton @ 4.6 * 2ND, WIN *
Back Gabrial The Duke @ 2.52 in the 15:35 at Wolverhampton * 2ND*
Back Steelcut @ 5.90 14:30 Wolverhampton * 4TH *
Wolverhampton 3:35
1. Gabrial The Duke * 2ND *
2. Train Hard * 3RD *
3. Hidden Link * 4TH *
———————————–
TO COME………………….
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50
BIG SYLV
**NAP**
KEMPTON 6.30
**STORM**
PLACE AND WIN
—————
Kinglami in the 19.00 at Kempton
——————–
Back McBirney @ 4.7 in the 19:30 at Kempton
Back Camachoice @ 3.35 in the 20:30 at Kempton
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50
BIG SYLV * 3RD *
**NAP**
KEMPTON 6.30
**STORM** * WIN *
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
PLACE AND WIN
—————
Kinglami in the 19.00 at Kempton * N/R *
Milesey
Back McBirney @ 4.7 in the 19:30 at Kempton * WIN *
Back Camachoice @ 3.35 in the 20:30 at Kempton
* WIN *
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
GREYHOUND RACING
—————–
Opens from Hove and Henlow tonight plus a full Open race card from Romford tomorrow. Darrell Williams is on the hunt for winners.
No greyhound has made a bigger impact so far this year than Your A Champ who returns to Hove tonight (20:18) after a three week absence in a bid to make it ten sprint wins on the bounce. And despite what appears her strongest challenger yet, in the shape of high class Droopys Loner – who appears well prepared judged on trial evidence for her first start since finishing third in the Oaks – Ken Tester’s charge can rack up the double-figure unbeaten sequence.
Gemstone Jack did me a big favour on the programme last week when landing my NB and given the excellent stamina of Kev Hutton’s runner I see no reason why he cannot repeat the feat (20:34) and make it three wins from four over the 515m trip and he again rates one of the night’s best bets.
Paul Young’s Bubbly Rocky (20:50) took advantage of trouble around him to win on his comeback last week, but there was nothing wrong with the time and with that run under his belt and a good make-up, he can go in again.
Westmead Shaw is never far away from being tipped in this column, but with nine wins in his last ten over Henlow’s specialist 428m trip and his favourite trap three box, why change a winning formula? With Nishas Guitar off since January and Bush Standard drawn out in four, Nick Savva’s five year old can record his 39th career victory (20:10).
Doonane Lad was desperately unlucky not to get to Bush Standard last week after a rough ride early on and can make amends in the ‘standard’ (20:58), where his early speed can soon put him in control.
Paulines Pride, who enjoyed no luck whatsoever in the Golden Jacket final at Crayford, has a two from four record over the 692m trip, and is hard to oppose in the 22:03.
——————-
Both Mark Wallis’ hotpots, Glanmire Lad and Ayamzaman, were turned over at Romford last week, but I think it might be mixed fortunes for the prolific scoring pair on Friday night.
Puppy Cup winner Glanmire Lad rates the banker on the card (21:40) where his early speed – now back in a middle box – can prove too strong for the opposition and he earns a confident vote ahead of the Golden Sprint, which begins in a fortnight.
Ayamzaman, however has been finding winning more difficult of late – remember he won 21 races last year – but he has won only one of his last six starts and with pace inside from Mottos Impact and Millstreet Lar, he may again be one for the layers.
Blue Glenard’s consistency – she was rarely out of the first two in the second half of last year – made her a popular choice amongst backers and she earns a confident vote to bounce back on her first start since January (21:06) where her consistent trapping can soon put her in charge.
The feature Stayers final (21:24) appears a far from easy contest to solve. In-form Roseville Bullet would prove hard to dislodge if repeating her run from a fortnight ago, but she ran considerably slower despite a victory in Monday’s heats and it may pay to side with battling Hometown Honey, who appears well berthed in trap six for Mark Wallis.
Benkaat Boy has a mixed trapping record when drawn near the fence, but with five seeded runners on his outside, can provide another winner for the reigning champion trainer (20:50.
Head Iton Tom has no issues with trapping from the red and can make all over 575m (22:26), while Aero Gaga makes most appeal in the marathon (22:40) especially with Pantone Ava badly drawn in trap four. Paulees Stevie will be far more at home in trap six in the 21:56.
Recommended Bets
Westmead Shaw 20:10 Hen (Thu)
Gemstone Jack 20:34 Hove (Thu)
Doonane Lad 20:58 Hen (Thu)
——————————–
Blue Glenard 21:06 Rom (Fri)
Glanmire Lad 21:40 Rom (Fri)
scottish lake
macbirnie
camachoice
clapped
Lucky 15 for an interest tonight
Plenty of WINNERS today ;) ;)
——————————-
Back Nicene Creed in the 14:40 Chepstow @ 11.0 * WIN *
Back Time To Think in the 15:45 Chepstow @ 5.2 * WIN *
Lay Seigneur Des Bois @ 3.35 16:20 Chepstow * 3RD, WIN *
Back to Lay Haadeeth in the 15:05 Wolverhampton @ 4.6 * 2ND, WIN *
**NAP**
KEMPTON 6.30
**STORM** * WIN *
Back McBirney @ 4.7 in the 19:30 at Kempton * WIN *
Back Camachoice @ 3.35 in the 20:30 at Kempton
* WIN *
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Nice picks at Kempton Milesey – bound to hit something sooner or later with all the posts though eh?? :-):-):-)
Who do u fancy in last milesey
I like PASTORAL JET, but won’t be having a bet on it.
Milesey
Aaaaaargh. Al khan let me down on getting all 6 horses right in kempton. Only chucked a quid on. Used your double though so cheers.
ATHLETIC in the last for me………..
FOOTBALL
——–
Back England U21 to win to nil @ 2.3 * WIN *
Back Italy to win at 4.0 * LOST 2-2 *
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.14 * WIN *
Back Netherlands U21 (AWAY) @ 1.96 * WIN *
Back Oostende @ 1.75 to beat White Star Woluwe * LOST 2-2 *
DARTS
——
Andy Hamilton v Simon Whitlock * LOST *
Draw
Gary Anderson v Michael van Gerwen * WIN *
Michael van Gerwen to win
Robert Thornton v Adrian Lewis
Adrian Lewis to win * WIN *
Wes Newton v Phil Taylor
Taylor to win 7-4 * LOST 7-2 *
TAYLOR WIN * WIN *
James Wade v Raymond van Barneveld
Van Barneveld to average Over 97.5
DRAW
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
———————————————————
HORSE RACING TIPS
—————–
FRIDAY 22ND MARCH 2013
———————–
NEWS
—-
Plans have been made to switch the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster to a week later should Saturday’s fixture be lost to the predicted snow.
With severe weather forecast, the track’s owner Arena Racing Company has, in consultation with the British Horseracing Authority, made provision to reschedule the day’s programme on March 30.
The meeting, which heralds the start of the turf Flat season, includes both the Lincoln and its consolation race, the William Hill Spring Mile.
“Should Saturday’s meeting be abandoned, which looks increasingly likely, we will host the meeting a week later on Easter Saturday, March 30,” said Jim Allen, ARC’s racing director.
“I’d like to extend our thanks to William Hill, the BHA, the Levy Board and Channel 4, who have acted swiftly and decisively to make this happen. All tickets that have been pre-booked either in general admissions or in hospitality will be valid in the event that the meeting is rescheduled.
“Entries for the William Hill Lincoln and the William Hill Spring Mile will return to the weights published stage, whilst all other races will reopen next week with details subject to confirmation by the BHA.”
William Hill PR director Kate Miller said: “It’s very difficult to plan for the unthinkable and no-one could have anticipated such inclement weather. The William Hill Lincoln and Spring Mile raise the curtain to the turf Flat season and we’re grateful that a contingency plan is in place to save them.”
Friday’s opening fixture is subject to a precautionary check at 8am, while a further inspection is planned for 8am on Saturday ahead of the feature card.
Clerk of the course Roderick Duncan said: “The problem (on Friday) is snow and how early it is going to come in. At the moment we are forecast possible light snow showers before midday, then a break, with somewhere between two and eight millimetres. We will be OK with a dusting of snow.
“It’s just a case of what volume we get. The heavy snow is not due to kick in until after racing. Based on the forecast there are reasons to be hopeful racing can survive on Friday, but it is difficult to be optimistic for Saturday.”
—————————
Jebel Ali, Friday March 22
Interpret still looks a little rough around the edges but he’s going the right way and can be expected to improve a chunk now stepping up in trip in the opening handicap at 10:10. Having finished second to Dubai Iconic and Surfer on his first 2 starts, he duly appreciated the lesser company when comfortably winning by 10 lengths at this track in December. He was then off the course for the best part of three months, returning just a couple of weeks ago when again finishing second, this time behind Encipher who lines up in the minor event later on the card. The feature of his four starts to date have been the fact he has come under pressure earlier than most, this longer trip very much in his favour bearing that in mind and whilst he’s unlikely to ever be as good as his half-brother, Invasor, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise were he to ply his trade at a higher level next season so he really should be very competitive off his current mark of 84.
On War shaped as if on the way back when fourth to Blue Tiger’s Eye at Meydan last time and he’s worth supporting in the 10:40. It’s fair to say he’s had a disappointing campaign given the way he won his maiden at this track last year, following that success with an excellent third to Izaaj off a mark of 85. His poor run of form has at least seen the handicapper give him a chance, and he shaped much better running off 70 last time, forced very wide throughout yet still briefly hitting the front over 1f out before his earlier exertions began to tell. He will appreciate the switch back to this surface and can hopefully salvage something from his poor season.
The maiden that brings the curtain down on Jebel Ali’s season at 13:10 is probably the weakest race of its kind to be run all season but it does provide Daar Rashid with a gilt-edged opportunity to get off the mark. He finished in the frame twice for Eoin Harty in America last year and bettered those efforts when second to Backstage Tour at this track last time. The winner did disappoint in handicap company next time but there is nothing of his calibre in this field and Daar Rashid should only need to run up to his best to oblige.
Back Interpret 1.94 in the 10:10
Back On War 2.7 in the 10:40
Back Daar Rashid 1.96 in the 13:10
————————-
Friday, Newbury 16:25
Shotavodka was a useful bumper performer last term and confirmed promise of his hurdling debut with 2 ready victories at Taunton ad Sandown last month at up to 17f. Type to go on improving in handicaps.
Changing The Guard has shown form more in-keeping with his Flat ability in handicap hurdles around 2m this season, winning 3 times in total. Suspicion handicapper has him about right now, however.
Chesil Beach Boy thrived last term, landing hat-trick of Wincanton handicaps before good fifth in Imperial Cup. Shaped well on occasions this season, but well positioned when runner-up in a visor latest.
Kaylif Aramis caught the eye on several occasions prior to getting it right in a competitive 2½m handicap at Ffos Las last month. Ready winner at Uttoxeter on Saturday and drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem.
Kellys Brow is already on trainer number 3, but made the perfect start for this yard in a 21f handicap at Ludlow a month ago. 6 lb rise to contend with, but drop in trip a bigger concern.
Whitby Jack landed 2m Kempton handicap in January. Never looked like justifying support at Ascot next time, and again disappointing in the Imperial Cup after good second at Ludlow the time before.
Scorched Son was all the better for recent reappearance when a wide-margin winner in the mud at Ffos Las in December. Never been the easiest to catch right, and though back on track in a visor latest, he’s risky.
Ivor’s King has been much improved this season, completing hat-trick comfortably at Ascot (2½m) in November. Took another step forward when third at Kempton, but lesser effort back there latest needs forgiving.
Iolith was suited by test of speed when landing back-to-back novice hurdles at Kempton and Taunton at the end of 2010. Absent since April the following year, but well treated if top yard has him back.
Smart Catch was a surprise 66/1 winner of a Kempton novice in March 2011. Probably needed the run on handicap bow in November of that year, but well-being a big concern given absence since.
1. Kaylif Aramis 3.55
2. Shotavodka 4.3
3. Chesil Beach Boy 7.6
Kaylif Aramis isn’t short of speed, and is well treated under a penalty after Saturday’s ready Uttoxeter win, so he looks the answer back in trip. Shotavodka is going the right way and looks the chief threat, possibly along with Chesil Beach Boy.
START of the flat turf season at Doncaster
DONCASTER 2.00
RONALDINHO 5.5
For the in form yard of Richard Hannon, stepped up in trip today to 1m6f, 6 starts on the turf 2 wins and 2 seconds, signed off last season with a win at Donny on the soft ground over 1m and is off a lower weight today.
DONCASTER 3.35
ANNUNCIATION 6.4
WOLVERHAMPTON DOUBLE
——————–
5.55
SECRET OF SUCCESS 1.6
looked a gutsy type when scoring on her Lingfield introduction over the trip last month and the handicapper appears to have given her a chance off this mark of 60. Entitled to have improved for that outing, she is the most unexposed of the quartet going to post and is the one they have to beat
6.30
JEZZA 3.7
has been handed a mere 2lb for racking up a course double over the extended 2m a fortnight ago and another big performance looks assured. Coming back to the extended 1m 5f for this assignment, he was seen scoring over track and trip two starts ago and the handicapper may just have some catching up to do off this mark of 65.
———————
NEWBURY 2.10
PAY THE KING 1.78
PAY THE KING was a beaten favourite on his hurdling debut at Chepstow last month but he still performed with credit and the form has since been franked by both the winner and the runner-up.
SEDGEFIELD 3.25
****SPEED STEED ****NAP**** 1.53
SPEED STEED is likely to be a warm order but he sets a clear form standard based on his chasing debut second at Doncaster last month and probably wouldn’t need to improve upon that effort to go one better today.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
———————————————————-
Lay Bosnia to beat Greece @ 2.06
These two nations currently sit joint top of Group G, in what is probably the easiest group in the UEFA Zone. Given the absence of a real heavyweight in this group, it’s shaping up to be a three-way tussle between Bosnia, Greece and Slovakia (currently three points back), with the three L’s of Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein already some way off the pace. When Greece hosted Bosnia in October, things were so tight the game ended in a rather unspectacular 0-0 draw, the second straight stalemate between the sides following a friendly which produced the same result just over a year earlier. In six meetings with their Balkan neighbours since 1996, the Greeks are still unbeaten, winning four of those contests, and would settle for another point this time.
Lay Poland to beat Ukraine @ 2.24
There is no doubting that the third-placed Poles are in a much stronger position in Group H than their Euro 2012 co-hosts ahead of this crunch qualifier in Warsaw. However, a win for Ukraine will suddenly send them level on points with their neighbours and back in the mix for that second spot at least. Ukraine proved by drawing with England at Wembley in September that they have enough in their locker to cause problems away from home. Due to an intense rivalry, matches between these eastern European neighbours have been fraught affairs in recent times, producing a 1-0 win for Ukraine sandwiched between a pair of 1-1 draws. The high stakes should only serve to increase the tightness.
Lay USA to beat Costa Rica @ 1.65
USA started off the final stage of their World Cup 2014 qualification campaign in the worst possible fashion in the six-nation group which decides which three or four teams represent north, central America and the Caribbean. The Stars and Stripes went down 2-1 in Honduras to a nation which they dwarf by almost 40 times in terms of population size. Now, they face a Costa Rica side on the up after finishing second only to Mexico in their group in the previous round of qualification for Brazil. It’s now nine games unbeaten for the Costa Ricans across qualifiers and friendlies. They are also a bogey team for their hosts having beaten them on US soil in 2011, making it five clashes without defeat for them.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
———————————————————
HORSE RACING TIPS
—————–
FRIDAY 22ND MARCH 2013
———————–
NEWS
—-
Plans have been made to switch the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster to a week later should Saturday’s fixture be lost to the predicted snow.
With severe weather forecast, the track’s owner Arena Racing Company has, in consultation with the British Horseracing Authority, made provision to reschedule the day’s programme on March 30.
The meeting, which heralds the start of the turf Flat season, includes both the Lincoln and its consolation race, the William Hill Spring Mile.
“Should Saturday’s meeting be abandoned, which looks increasingly likely, we will host the meeting a week later on Easter Saturday, March 30,” said Jim Allen, ARC’s racing director.
“I’d like to extend our thanks to William Hill, the BHA, the Levy Board and Channel 4, who have acted swiftly and decisively to make this happen. All tickets that have been pre-booked either in general admissions or in hospitality will be valid in the event that the meeting is rescheduled.
“Entries for the William Hill Lincoln and the William Hill Spring Mile will return to the weights published stage, whilst all other races will reopen next week with details subject to confirmation by the BHA.”
William Hill PR director Kate Miller said: “It’s very difficult to plan for the unthinkable and no-one could have anticipated such inclement weather. The William Hill Lincoln and Spring Mile raise the curtain to the turf Flat season and we’re grateful that a contingency plan is in place to save them.”
Friday’s opening fixture is subject to a precautionary check at 8am, while a further inspection is planned for 8am on Saturday ahead of the feature card.
Clerk of the course Roderick Duncan said: “The problem (on Friday) is snow and how early it is going to come in. At the moment we are forecast possible light snow showers before midday, then a break, with somewhere between two and eight millimetres. We will be OK with a dusting of snow.
“It’s just a case of what volume we get. The heavy snow is not due to kick in until after racing. Based on the forecast there are reasons to be hopeful racing can survive on Friday, but it is difficult to be optimistic for Saturday.”
—————————
Jebel Ali, Friday March 22
Interpret still looks a little rough around the edges but he’s going the right way and can be expected to improve a chunk now stepping up in trip in the opening handicap at 10:10. Having finished second to Dubai Iconic and Surfer on his first 2 starts, he duly appreciated the lesser company when comfortably winning by 10 lengths at this track in December. He was then off the course for the best part of three months, returning just a couple of weeks ago when again finishing second, this time behind Encipher who lines up in the minor event later on the card. The feature of his four starts to date have been the fact he has come under pressure earlier than most, this longer trip very much in his favour bearing that in mind and whilst he’s unlikely to ever be as good as his half-brother, Invasor, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise were he to ply his trade at a higher level next season so he really should be very competitive off his current mark of 84.
On War shaped as if on the way back when fourth to Blue Tiger’s Eye at Meydan last time and he’s worth supporting in the 10:40. It’s fair to say he’s had a disappointing campaign given the way he won his maiden at this track last year, following that success with an excellent third to Izaaj off a mark of 85. His poor run of form has at least seen the handicapper give him a chance, and he shaped much better running off 70 last time, forced very wide throughout yet still briefly hitting the front over 1f out before his earlier exertions began to tell. He will appreciate the switch back to this surface and can hopefully salvage something from his poor season.
The maiden that brings the curtain down on Jebel Ali’s season at 13:10 is probably the weakest race of its kind to be run all season but it does provide Daar Rashid with a gilt-edged opportunity to get off the mark. He finished in the frame twice for Eoin Harty in America last year and bettered those efforts when second to Backstage Tour at this track last time. The winner did disappoint in handicap company next time but there is nothing of his calibre in this field and Daar Rashid should only need to run up to his best to oblige.
Back Interpret 1.94 in the 10:10
Back On War 2.7 in the 10:40
Back Daar Rashid 1.96 in the 13:10
————————-
Friday, Newbury 16:25
Shotavodka was a useful bumper performer last term and confirmed promise of his hurdling debut with 2 ready victories at Taunton ad Sandown last month at up to 17f. Type to go on improving in handicaps.
Changing The Guard has shown form more in-keeping with his Flat ability in handicap hurdles around 2m this season, winning 3 times in total. Suspicion handicapper has him about right now, however.
Chesil Beach Boy thrived last term, landing hat-trick of Wincanton handicaps before good fifth in Imperial Cup. Shaped well on occasions this season, but well positioned when runner-up in a visor latest.
Kaylif Aramis caught the eye on several occasions prior to getting it right in a competitive 2½m handicap at Ffos Las last month. Ready winner at Uttoxeter on Saturday and drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem.
Kellys Brow is already on trainer number 3, but made the perfect start for this yard in a 21f handicap at Ludlow a month ago. 6 lb rise to contend with, but drop in trip a bigger concern.
Whitby Jack landed 2m Kempton handicap in January. Never looked like justifying support at Ascot next time, and again disappointing in the Imperial Cup after good second at Ludlow the time before.
Scorched Son was all the better for recent reappearance when a wide-margin winner in the mud at Ffos Las in December. Never been the easiest to catch right, and though back on track in a visor latest, he’s risky.
Ivor’s King has been much improved this season, completing hat-trick comfortably at Ascot (2½m) in November. Took another step forward when third at Kempton, but lesser effort back there latest needs forgiving.
Iolith was suited by test of speed when landing back-to-back novice hurdles at Kempton and Taunton at the end of 2010. Absent since April the following year, but well treated if top yard has him back.
Smart Catch was a surprise 66/1 winner of a Kempton novice in March 2011. Probably needed the run on handicap bow in November of that year, but well-being a big concern given absence since.
1. Kaylif Aramis 3.55
2. Shotavodka 4.3
3. Chesil Beach Boy 7.6
Kaylif Aramis isn’t short of speed, and is well treated under a penalty after Saturday’s ready Uttoxeter win, so he looks the answer back in trip. Shotavodka is going the right way and looks the chief threat, possibly along with Chesil Beach Boy.
START of the flat turf season at Doncaster
DONCASTER 2.00
RONALDINHO 5.5
For the in form yard of Richard Hannon, stepped up in trip today to 1m6f, 6 starts on the turf 2 wins and 2 seconds, signed off last season with a win at Donny on the soft ground over 1m and is off a lower weight today.
DONCASTER 3.35
ANNUNCIATION 6.4
WOLVERHAMPTON DOUBLE
——————–
5.55
SECRET OF SUCCESS 1.6
looked a gutsy type when scoring on her Lingfield introduction over the trip last month and the handicapper appears to have given her a chance off this mark of 60. Entitled to have improved for that outing, she is the most unexposed of the quartet going to post and is the one they have to beat
6.30
JEZZA 3.7
has been handed a mere 2lb for racking up a course double over the extended 2m a fortnight ago and another big performance looks assured. Coming back to the extended 1m 5f for this assignment, he was seen scoring over track and trip two starts ago and the handicapper may just have some catching up to do off this mark of 65.
———————
NEWBURY 2.10
PAY THE KING 1.78
PAY THE KING was a beaten favourite on his hurdling debut at Chepstow last month but he still performed with credit and the form has since been franked by both the winner and the runner-up.
SEDGEFIELD 3.25
****SPEED STEED ****NAP**** 1.53
SPEED STEED is likely to be a warm order but he sets a clear form standard based on his chasing debut second at Doncaster last month and probably wouldn’t need to improve upon that effort to go one better today.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Also with the international games tomorrow i won’t be doing the friday night racing competition this week, for i just won’t have time for i will be playing the inplay markets…… friday night is jammed packed with football, so the competition won’t be a loss this week, but i promise it’ll be back next friday, and also a competition for the grand national ;) ;)
Thank you for your understanding, and i hope to see all of you playing next friday.
Milesey
Milesey, no worries. All this Friday night football is a killer for me too.
How much did that placepot pay out?