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WHILST I'm off sampling some foreign golf and even more foreign beer I've set up this thread for Milesey and others to post their tips for the day's racing on 1st June.
So please feel free to post your comments below.
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EPSOM DERBY DAY
******************
Guide to the runners……………
Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.
Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.
Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.
Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.
Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.
Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler’s Rock. Not beaten far in 1¼m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.
Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.
Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.
Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1¼m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.
Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn’t beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.
Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1¼m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.
Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.
********************
WILL HE STAY / WON’T HE STAY ?? Of cause he will stay, I’m with DAWN APPROACH all the way !
Best BETS…………..DAWN APPROACH WIN @ 11/8
PLACE CLAIMS……. MARS @ 16/1 / LIBERTARIAN @ 16/1
——————————————————
EPSOM
13:35 HIGH TROJA @ 5/1
Successful twice at 1m 2f on good to firm and good to soft ground. A winner at 25-1 at Newbury over 1m 2f (good to firm) on his latest outing last month, beating Hillstar by 1/2l. Has also won at Leicester this season.
15:15 FAIR VALUE @ 16/1
She has won four times from 5f to 6f on good to firm ground and on the all-weather. Third of 9 behind Duke Of Firenze beaten 1 3/4l at 15-2 on her latest outing at Goodwood over 5f (good) last month.
——————————————————-
LUCKY 15
14:55 MUSSELBURGH
GOOD SPEECH @ 7/1 ( NAP )
Successful at 1m 1f and 1m 2f on good to firm ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Lion Beacon when second of 5 at 13-2 on her latest outing at Beverley over 1m 4f (good to firm) last month.
16:30 MUSSELBURGH
JEDWARD @ 6/1
Successful twice at 5f on soft and yielding ground. Beaten 3 1/2l behind Towbee at 14-1 when seventh of 12 on her latest outing at Thirsk over 5f (soft) last month.
15:00 WORCESTER
HAVE YOU SEEN ME @ 11/2
He has won a hurdle race, a NH flat race and a chase from 2m to 2m 4f on good and good to soft ground, but last win was over two years ago. Third of 8 behind See U Bob beaten 7l at 9-2 on his latest outing in a chase at Stratford over 2m 7f (good to soft) in April.
21:10 NEWCASTLE
CROSS THE BOSS @ 4/1
Successful at 7f and 1m 1f on good ground and on the all-weather. Beaten a neck by Spavento when second of 15 at 3-1fav on his latest outing over this course and distance (good to firm) in April.
**************************
LINGFIELD – DOUBLE
18:55 LINGFIELD
SALOOMY @ 2/1
Successful twice at 6f on firm ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Chester Aristocrat when second of 13 at 4-1 on his latest outing at Haydock over 6f (firm) last month.
20:25 LINGFIELD
PLEMUM @ 9/4
Placed once in five starts. Beaten 1 1/2l by Mister Marcasite when second of 11 at 4-1 on his latest outing at Nottingham over 1m (good to soft) last month.
***************************
OUTSIDERS – PLACE and WIN
13:55 WORCESTER
WALCOT LATHYRUS @ 12/1
Yet to place in five starts. Third of 5 behind What A Warrior beaten 14l at 16-1 on his latest outing in a chase at Ludlow over 2m 4f (good to soft) in March.
18:40 NEWCASTLE
PELMANISM @ 10/1
Winner of seven races from 5f to 7f on good and good to soft ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 1/2l by Chester Aristocrat when second of 8 at 9-1 on his latest outing at Hamilton over 6f (good) last month.
*****************************
Another i saw at a big price is :
ONE LUCKY LADY / 17:40 WORCESTER
is at 8/1
ONE LUCKY LADY @ 8/1
She has won three hurdle races from 2m to 2m 4f on good and soft ground. A winner at 11-2 in a hurdle race at Uttoxeter over 2m 4f (good) on her latest outing last month, beating Lord Grantham by 1 3/4l.
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EPSOM
Best BETS…………..DAWN APPROACH WIN @ 11/8
PLACE CLAIMS……. MARS @ 16/1 / LIBERTARIAN @ 16/1
13:35 HIGH TROJA @ 5/1
15:15 FAIR VALUE @ 16/1
——————————————————-
LUCKY 15
14:55 MUSSELBURGH
GOOD SPEECH @ 7/1 ( NAP )
16:30 MUSSELBURGH
JEDWARD @ 6/1
15:00 WORCESTER
HAVE YOU SEEN ME @ 11/2
21:10 NEWCASTLE
CROSS THE BOSS @ 4/1
**************************
LINGFIELD – DOUBLE
18:55 LINGFIELD
SALOOMY @ 2/1
20:25 LINGFIELD
PLEMUM @ 9/4
***************************
OUTSIDERS – PLACE and WIN
13:55 WORCESTER
WALCOT LATHYRUS @ 12/1
18:40 NEWCASTLE
PELMANISM @ 10/1
*****************************
17:40 WORCESTER
ONE LUCKY LADY @ 8/1
Milesey
EPSOM DASH PREVIEW – SATURDAY
—————————————————
Experienced Epsom-ers:
Ajjaadd – Improved, at the age of seven, when scoring over C&D last time, beating La Fortunata by a short-head. 4 lb rise incurred for that win seems fair and he is a must for any shortlist.
Captain Dunne – Has run in this race for the last four years, winning in 2011, and it was encouraging that he managed to perform at a level close to his best on his reappearance despite the majority of his stablemates needing their seasonal returns.
La Fortunata – Incredibly speedy mare who is yet to finish out of the frame in five starts over C&D, including on seasonal return when narrowly touched off by Ajjaadd. She was carried to the middle of the track by the eventual third that day and it is far from out of the question that she could reverse the form.
Fair Value – Posted her two best performances when tackling this C&D, which is unlikely to be a coincidence with him possessing an abundance of speed. Goodwood return, when third to Duke of Firenze, likely to have put her spot on for this and it would be folly to dismiss her.
Of that quartet, the first and second from a race over C&D in April, namely Ajjadd and La Fortunata, make most appeal. La Fortunata receives a 1 lb pull with her adversary and was arguably unlucky not to beat him that day, having been inconvenienced by the wandering Silvanus, and she will clearly well suited to the demands of this race.
Epsom Newbies:
Duke Of Firenze – A well-bred colt, being the first foal of Fillies’ Mile and Coronation Stakes winner Nannina, who has tasted success on three occasions to date. Latest success was a career best and, though he backed that up on the figures at York next time, he never really landed a blow and the suspicion is that he doesn’t want a test of speed quite this severe.
Smoothtalkinrascal – Has improved since joining David O’Meara over the winter, posting three excellent efforts, including wins at both Leicester and York, and it is possible to excuse his sole below-par performance at Hamilton. He is now 9 lb higher than when last contesting a handicap and were the ground to come up quick it would have to be a concern (as yet unraced on anything faster than good).
Mister Mannanan – Smart performer in his prime, landing a couple of listed races and competing in handicaps off marks in the low 100’s. Returned to form on his seasonal reappearance when winning at Beverley prior to shaping better than the bare result at Chester, and it could be worth forgiving his effort at York as things went against him having missed the break.
Normal Equilibrium – Built on the promise of an unlucky reappearance to win readily at Chester, beating Bispham Green by a length and a half. He remains a sprinter with plenty of potential and is certainly worthy of consideration under a 4 lb penalty.
The three-year-old’s hold a strong hand here with both Smoothtalkingrascal and Normal Equilibrium well up to making an impact in races of this ilk. However their relative inexperience could count against them, particularly at a track of this nature, so we are more interested in the Dandy Nicholls-trained Mister Mannanan, who is well treated if returning to anything like his best and is certainly worth a chance to prove that his York running was all wrong.
The pincer movement has been used to great effect throughout history, from the Battle of Cannae in 216 BC to right through to World War II, and we are going to bring the manoeuvre into the modern era by employing it here. The two “prongs” that make up our pincer are La Fortunata and Mister Manannan, one with experience at Epsom and one without, both of whom strike as being capable of making a sizeable impact in this race. Clearly much depends upon the draw (don’t let Stone Of Folca’s success last year from stall two fool you) but at this stage that is impossible to take into account and as ante-post bets they are as good as any.
Recommendations:
Back La Fortunata @22.0
Back Mister Manannan @ 20.0
Milesey
3 e/w shots for the DASH……. all worth small stakes…
15:15
FAIR VALUE @ 16/1
Back La Fortunata @22.0
Back Mister Manannan @ 20.0
Milesey
DERBY BETS
—————-
WIN
DAWN APPROACH @ 11/8
PLACE
MARS @ 16/1
LIBERTARIAN @ 16/1
Milesey
EPSOM
Best BETS…………..
DAWN APPROACH WIN @ 11/8 ** LAST **
PLACE CLAIMS…….
MARS @ 16/1
LIBERTARIAN @ 16/1 ** 2ND **
13:35 HIGH TROJA @ 5/1 ** 4TH **
15:15 FAIR VALUE @ 16/1 ** 4TH **
Back La Fortunata @22.0 ** 6TH **
Back Mister Manannan @ 20.0 ** 16TH **
——————————————————-
Milesey
16:00 LIBERTARIAN @ 16/1 ** 2ND **
15:15 FAIR VALUE @ 16/1 ** 4TH **
Two placed horses and that’s it today at Epsom !
DAWN APPROACH wow, didn’t see the horse reacting like that, the jockey was actually lucky to stay on, the horse wouldn’t settle at all, had to let it run freely in the end and had no chance……… after the first few strides from the stalls i knew it wasn’t to be !
Milesey
OUTSIDERS – PLACE and WIN
13:55 WORCESTER
WALCOT LATHYRUS @ 12/1 ** 5TH **
18:40 NEWCASTLE
PELMANISM @ 12/1 ** 2ND **
*****************************
17:40 WORCESTER
ONE LUCKY LADY @ 8/1 ** 4TH **
Milesey
LUCKY 15
14:55 MUSSELBURGH
GOOD SPEECH @ 7/1 ( NAP ) ** 5TH **
16:30 MUSSELBURGH
JEDWARD @ 6/1 ** non runner **
15:00 WORCESTER
HAVE YOU SEEN ME @ 11/2 ** 3RD **
21:10 NEWCASTLE
CROSS THE BOSS @ 4/1
**************************
LINGFIELD – DOUBLE
18:55 LINGFIELD
SALOOMY @ 2/1 ** 3RD **
20:25 LINGFIELD
PLEMUM @ 9/4
***************************
Milesey
You think it would be worthwhile doubling up on Dawn Approach and St Nicholas?
Milesey did u not tip la fortunata 3.15 and ocovango earlier in the week . Fancy bothmyself
La Fortunata has a cracking chance in the dash at around 20/1,very speedy horse but it has a poor draw,worth an E/W shout I think.
DON’T FORGET BETFAIR TIPSTER COMPETITION TODAY…………………………
Can you predict the winner of four chosen races across the Epsom Derby Saturday? We’re giving away £/€1,000 to the top tipster out there. To be in with a chance of winning, simply opt in and place a £/€20 Exchange bet on an Epsom race on Saturday 1st June.
HOW TO PLAY
Make your four selections from the drop-down menus then enter a prediction for the combined winning distance of those four races. The tiebreaker will be used to decide the prize winner should customers predict the same number of race winners.
Submit your selections before the first race.
Simply risk £/€20 or more in a single bet on an Epsom race on Saturday 1st June to qualify for the prize (Exchange only; excludes antepost).
http://www.betfair.com/promotions/
Milesey
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
DON’T FORGET Betfair TIPSTER COMPETITION TODAY…………………………
Can you predict the winner of four chosen races across the Epsom Derby Saturday? We’re giving away £/€1,000 to the top tipster out there. To be in with a chance of winning, simply opt in and place a £/€20 Exchange bet on an Epsom race on Saturday 1st June.
HOW TO PLAY
Make your four selections from the drop-down menus then enter a prediction for the combined winning distance of those four races. The tiebreaker will be used to decide the prize winner should customers predict the same number of race winners.
Submit your selections before the first race.
Simply risk £/€20 or more in a single bet on an Epsom race on Saturday 1st June to qualify for the prize (Exchange only; excludes antepost).
http://www.betfair.com/promotions/
Milesey
Hey Milesey, while Mr Fs away why dont you put up the link for betfair 1
1 of those little link boxes
hahaha, Don’t have that kind of control on here, but i’ll talk to admin and see if we can get a little box on the side for BETFAIR ! maybe we can get the betdaq one replaced with a BETFAIR box, seeing as though betdaq is a complete waste of time, you need to sit on there for a day just to get a bet matched for a game commencing in a weeks time :)
Milesey
Brisbane Force 3-1 over 3.5 up
Im on two at Epsom today done them as singles and also a cheeky double as it pays just over 21/1
Derby DAWN APPROACH 6/4 @ WILLIAM HILL
5.25 DR RED EYE 8/1 @ WILLIAM HILL
Good luck with your bets
I’m on your 2 Lingfield selections Saloomy & Plenum plus your 2 Mussleburgh choices Good Speech and Jedward in a lucky 15
Walcot lathyrus
Pelmanism
One lucky lady
Libertarian
50p ew lucky 15
any thoughts on the 1;40 at hexham??
Libertarian for the Epsom Derby at 4pm
kaolak gets it nice
That was a horrible race from Dawn Approach, i went for Libertarian in the end, very tight finish
Shocking day for me, only money won was on pelmanism, lost quite a bit, went for battle of Marengo, that drifted at the end :( milesy you got any bets for this evening before I go out! Preferably each way?
Had a nice Barca/Bayern to score 4 each double, was looking really good then Bayern ran out of gas. Always seem to be a goal short :(
I had both to score 3 as well so won a little bit.