The flat season is in full swing now, and we have the fourth UK Classic race on our screens this weekend coming in the form of the Betfred Epsom Derby.
The Derby is still renowned as the biggest and best flat race in the calendar, which will definitely divide opinion, as we have top-class racing all over the globe for the flat. Even if you think it isn't, it is still a very prestigious race, which has produced some great winners.
Key things to consider
Draw (Stall number)
From recent years, being drawn in 1 hasn't been too much of a problem, even though it's not deemed to be ideal. City Of Troy managed to win this race last year after being drawn in the lowest stall, as did Adayar in 2021. However, being in the middle of the pack, and even double digit stall numbers is statistically best.
Since 2005, the Derby has been won from a double digit stall on nine times. This race normally unfolds after turning for home, and the horses towards the front setting the pace start to fall back. This allows horses who have had to sit tight from a wide draw, to weave through the pack. We often get a Ballydoyle front runner setting a frantic pace, which is a reason for this.
Weather & ground conditions
It's an obvious key thing to consider, but for those who aren't racing fanatics, ground that they run on is a huge factor.
Towards the start of the week the Epsom clerk decided to water the track, and since then we have had a lot of race. The ground on Friday was good to soft, but further heavy rain is expected to land, so this could be a swamp. For this, you need horses who are proven on ‘soft' ground.
Distance
Since this Classic is still in the early stages of the year, a lot of the horses turning up will not have run over the twelve furlong trip so it is a guessing game. To eliminate as much of a guess when picking your fancy, reading into pedigrees is a must. If a horse comes from a family who have stayed the trip there is a stronger chance that they will stay the trip as well. In my opinion, due to the likely terrible ground and pacesetters in the race, you'll want a horse who is a proper stayer in the making.
Trainers
Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby have won this race seven times in the last eight years, so blindly picking one of their horses wouldn't be a bad shout. The problem with that is that Aidan has many in the race, and we have seen his second string win it on a couple of occasions in recent history. Serpentine (25/1), Anthony Van Dyck (13/2) and Wing Of Eagles (40/1) have won this when not having Ryan Moore in the saddle.
2025 runners
This year, the market is dominated by the usual suspects. We have three Ballydoyle horses in the top five, including the favourite. Charlie Appleyby, who I just mentioned, had the third favourite (Ruling Court).
Ryan Moore has opted to ride Delacroix, which is the reason why that horse heads the market. I'm not sure that it's a surprise that Ryan has gone for this horse as he has been impressive on his two starts this year at Leopardstown, creating some good figures on the Racing Post ratings. He has got a good draw in stall 14, and has a very good pedigree, even though his sire didn't run over this far. He is related to a horse who won a Group 1 over 14f, so you'd like to think he'd stay the trip.
If The Lion In Winter won the Dante Stakes at York a few weeks ago, I think we could be talking about a different favourite for this race. This horse was impressive as a two-year-old, but nothing went to plan on his return to racing this year. He was out of character, sweating and pulling in the race and he eventually finished in sixth. We have seen horses from this yard who have run badly first time out and then have won big races, like City Of Troy who won this race last year after having a terrible prep.
Pride Of Arras won the Dante that The Lion In Winter was sixth in. That was a huge shock, shown by his winning odds of 18/1. He was impressive in that race and is rightly fancied in the market (5/1) to be a big player in this race. There is plenty of room for improvement for this horse because he has only ever run two times. Stall 16 is where he'll come from the start and he is a player.
Ruling Court won the English 2000 Guineas at the start of May, and that is usually a good pointer for the Derby. However, horses who don't win the Guineas and were staying on at the finish fair off better in the Derby. Despite this, Ruling Court won a decent renewal of the Guineas as the runner-up romped home in the Irish equivalent so he has to heavily respected.
The French have sent two over for a crack at raiding one of our classic races. It would be very fitting if the F-H Graffard runner, Midak, was to win this as the name of the race is named after this horse's owner (Aga Khan, Betfred Derby In Honour Of His Highness Aga Khan). This horse is unbeaten from his three runs to date which includes a Group 3 win. He has won impressively in his runs so far, but this is a totally different ballgame. Whether they are coming to Epsom believing they have a solid chance or just because of the name of the race, time will tell.
GambleAware