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For horses who aren't quite capable of mixing it at the top level over the minimum trip they come to Cheltenham for the Grand Annual Challenge Cup.
This is yet another rock-solid handicap to dissect and similar to the other handicaps of today and yesterday, finding the winner will be extremely difficult.
Cheltenham 4:50 – The Last Day 25/1 (1pt EW) 6 places
Both of last year's winner and runner-up take their chance in this. Global Citizen is now an 11yo who has it all to prove after shocking the crowd at Cheltenham last year when winning at odds of 28/1. He is a horse who has always been smart, and if getting an uncontested lead like last year, he could have a live chance, but his prep for last year was better than this year and based on what he's done this season I think you've got take a leap of faith with him. Last year's runner-up is running off the same handicap mark as 12 months ago, so surely has to have a good chance in this, but this year he has to shoulder top weight, and I think that will be a tough ask.
Another horse who will have to shoulder a heavy weight is Couer Sublime, he gets the aid of a 5lb claimer so doesn't have to have the burden of 11st 12lbs. He brings in a good piece of form from his recent Grade 3 runner-up performance last time out a few weeks ago. He will be at the top of the market, but I have doubts about him staying this trip on the tacky ground and up the hill.
Whenever Gavin Cromwell sends one to the Festival, you should all take note. He is a brilliant trainer, who doesn't send them over unless he thinks he can go there for the win. His runner Final Orders is on a hot streak of wins and won a competitive handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. The British handicapper has put him up 10 lbs for that run, and even though that will make life harder, I think he is a player in this race.
For the British runners, Third Time Lucki will be popular for a yard who are often attached with the ‘target trainer' title. Dan Skelton is good at putting a plan together and this horse had some good pieces of form from his Novice chase season. He was starting to become a tad underwhelming before he won at Sandown under a very smart ride by Kielan Woods. He travelled nicely through that race, which is what you need for a race like today which will be run at a proper gallop. The rise in the weights might be enough to stop him from winning though. Each way player.
Dinoblue is an interesting runner towards the bottom of the weights. This Mare let me down when I tipped her up at short odds at Naas in a Listed contest. Her jumping let her down when it mattered that day, but the winner is a very good front-runner, so she lost nothing in defeat. The time before that she bumped into Impervious who is a warm fancy for the Mares Novice Chase later in the week. She was sent off for the Mares' Novice hurdle 12 months ago, so connections clearly feel she is a very good horse, I was just a bit concerned with how she didn't stay on as well as I thought she would at Naas last time around.
The one I've fallen on is the bottom weight, The Last Day. I criticised Global Citizen for being an 11yo, but this is different with this horse. He is lightly raced for his age and I think this race has been the plan for quite a while. He tends to have a lot of breaks but has run well when fresh in the past. He ran in January, where he finished 5th/7 but wasn't fancied to run a big race that day, going off at 28/1, which is a big indicator from the Evan Williams yard. However, the manner in which he won the Grade 3 race at Aintree last April at 12/1 was very eye-catching, and the way he travelled through the race makes me think this race will be tailor-made for him. He jumps, travels strongly, and will enjoy a fast pace. I get the feeling this horse will be well-support overnight and in the early morning on the day of racing. I think he has a big chance if he's tuned up.
