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1.10 Goodwood – Tdn Australia Handicap
This is not a race I am willing to go in with big stakes, I think this is an open race, but I do feel like AQUASCAPE is being overlooked.
He does not have the sexy profile that the others have, with the big powerful owners, from their big powerful stables, but what he does have is consistency.
He has run at this track before on seasonal reappearance, where he finished second. He was positioned prominently that day, and he seems to be a fighter, when the winner came up to him he didn’t let him go without a scrap, he battled all the way to the line and lost by a short head. The form looks okay, with Punting back in third, has since won at Sandown last week.
Since his second at Goodwood, he went to Bath where he finished second again, but this time to a totally unexposed horse called Ridgeway who had clearly improved from his debut run the year before, as he absolutely bolted up by 4.75 lengths. He looks like a nice horse, but the tactics were different that day on Aquascape, they tracked the leaders and then was asked to close, which I think did not suit. Also, it was a maiden, which meant they all raced off the same weight.
Tomorrow Harry Dunlop has returned this horse back to Goodwood, and has got Atzeni to take the ride, which is a nice booking. He runs off 8st 10, which is bottom weight, and I think if Atzeni can have him close to the pace, one behind the leader with a couple of furlongs to go, we are in with a chance.
Selection: Aquascape EW
1.45 Goodwood – Saint Clair Oak Tree Stakes
Once again, I am sure a lot of you will think I am crazy, because I really do like the chances of GRACEFUL MAGIC in the Saint Clair Oak Tree Stakes Group 3. I will probably be the only tipster who likes her chances tomorrow, but I do think she has a lot going for her.
Last year she was campaigned as a sprinter over 6f, where she ran with a lot of credit, picking up the occasional win, and she got her black type, which is a big boost for broodmares, when she finished 2nd to Rose Of Kildare in the Group 3. Looking back at that form, it has worked out quite well, as Rose Of Kildare has since been placed in a German Group 2 and won another Group 3 over 10f at York.
Other pieces of good form include winning a big Nursery race at Doncaster. Her close second at Goodwood behind Caspian Queen when she was denied a clear run. Even her most recent run had produced a winner at the Glorious Goodwood festival this week in Tomorrow’s Dream, who I also tipped up. That race was over a mile, and she was quirky out of the stalls, and was keen. A mile is not her trip, but the way she cruised through the race showed she was begging to return to 7f. If you have time, give that race a watch and you can see she travels beautifully, after doing a lot wrong.
Finally, connections have decided to give 7f another go (previously tried it once) and I think this quick track will help massively. Her cruising speed is crazy, she loves fast ground and the faster it is the better her chances are, so I am hoping the course does not water the track.
Obviously on ratings she has it all to prove, and the market seems to think she has no chance. She is a 3yo, so does get the weight allowance against the older horses, and is drawn in Stall 5, so hopefully she breaks on terms and gets a handy position, as I would hate to see her cruising like normal, but with nowhere to go.
There is obviously a high chance I could be talking utter rubbish, and she will finish last, but racing is a game of opinions, and with One Master being close to EVS, I think you can definitely take her on. I personally think One Master will need soft ground
3.45 Goodwood – L'Ormarins Queen's Plate Glorious Stakes
My most confident bet of the day is probably DESERT ENCOUNTER who bids to win this race like he did last year.
It appears David Simcock has targeted this race for Desert Encounter for a long time, and it will probably be his main race for the entire season. He has campaigned Desert Encounter in the same way as he did last year, with a run in the Princess Of Wales’ Stakes Group 2 at Newmarket, before running him here. He travelled through the race at Newmarket like the winner but was probably found out for a bit of fitness and the ground was not in his favour, where he finished 3rd.
This horse loves quick ground, all his best form has come on a quick surface, so for him to run well on soft ground indicates what rich vein of form he is in. David Simcock could have withdrawn him like he did at Royal Ascot due to the ground, but he knew he had to get a run into him, before running him in this race at Goodwood, so he let him run.
He re-opposes Communique and Alounak in this race, and I think he has the beating of both.
Alounak had no excuses last time, he might have wanted a quicker surface, but that did not seem to bother him when he finished 2nd at Royal Ascot on soft ground. Communique always runs well at Newmarket, it is his bread and butter track, so to see him 1 length in front on soft ground is fine by me. If Desert Encounter gets a clear run through, I cannot see them in front of him. The rest of the field has something to prove.
4.55 Goodwood – British E.B.F. EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes
BEAUTIFUL NEWS is an interesting newcomer in the last race on day four of the festival. I am not normally a big fan of tipping newcomers in a race, but this one looks like it could run a nice race.
William Haggas has a decent record of newcomers at the Glorious Goodwood festival with five winning from fifteen runs, with a further three placing. We saw a newcomer from his stable win today, and that continues his hot form in recent weeks, currently operating at a 27% strike rate in the past fortnight.
The pedigree of this horse is extremely good, and it suggests that she is going to be a speedball. Haggas trained her Dam, Besharah, who won on debut, before going on to a Group 3 & Group 2 in her juvenile season. She is by Shamardal, who is a quality sire and has produced many good sprinters, like Blue Point and Earthlight. I am looking forward to seeing how she runs.
The horses with experience in the race do not have outstanding pieces of form, and it is open to a newcomer to take this.
