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IT was a fabulous start to Thursday with my old pal Yorkhill bolting up. The complete change of fortune for Mullins and Walsh continued later on with Un De Sceaux and Nichols Canyon and there were few who predicted that complete return to form.
Presenting Percy, the poster boy for Irish handicap-bashing by Phil Smith, turned out to be completely underestimated and bolted up in some style, unfortunately at the expense of Jury Duty but we still managed a nice each way return. It was a case of hitting the bar again later on with Baron Alco finishing second and Thomas Crapper finishing fourth for another two good each way returns that could have been so much better.
I drew a blank in the last by the narrowest of margins as Mall Dini was interfered with twice on the run in and couldn’t quite get a place for us.
Friday beckons now with the prospect of some incredible races and the icing on the cake in the shape of the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. I only managed a place last year with Don Poli. Let’s see if we can pick out the winner this time…
JCB Triumph Hurdle
- 1.30pm
- 2 miles 1 furlong
- Novice Hurdlers
- 4 year olds only
This is a competitive race for 4 year old hurdlers which is tricky because there isn’t a whole lot to go on in terms of form and the 4 year olds can improve significantly between races as they start to learn the game.
The two who have been prominent in the betting all season are Defi De Seuil and Charli Parcs. The former is unbeaten over hurdles, looks like a classy horse and is a worthy favourite but favourites don’t have a great record in the race and I’m not sure he has beaten much in his runs so far.
Charli Parcs fell last time out when it looked like he would lose anyway and despite that defeat he is still shorter in the market than the horse who won that day MASTER BLUEYES. He really quickened away at the finish and looked a classy animal and is still available at an each way price. He looks the safest option to me.
Two of the Irish contenders are also of interest in the shape of Mega Fortune and Dinaria Des Obeaux. The former might be best on softer ground and I think his form doesn’t quite justify his price. The latter is quite a big price but her form isn’t top quality and the fact that she has clattered a couple of hurdles late on in her races would be a concern – there is little scope for hurdling errors in a race like this.
Master Blueyes was the one that I tipped up at the start of the week and I see no reason to change that view now. Indeed, Divin Bere gave the form a boost in the Fred Winter by finishing a very close second. Divin Bere had beaten Master Blueyes three starts ago by a very narrow margin.
I had a point each way at 6/1 earlier in the week and I’m advising another point each way now too. With most of the focus on the JP McManus pair at the head of the market the price on Master Blueyes has held up.
Recommendation
- 1pt e/w – MASTER BLUEYES – 6/1 with 10Bet (2 pt e/w in total)
Already advised
- 1 pt e/w Master Blueyes – 6/1
Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle
- 2.10pm
- Run over hurdles
- Competitive handicap
- Run over 2 miles so a good position at the start is important and they will go at a fierce pace
A very exciting race this but your race can be over before it has begun here and it’s not a race that I like to steam in heavily for given the level of unpredictability.
There are cracking horses in the field, right up and down the handicap and you will no doubt hear a case being made for any number of horses. I reckon there are about 11 in the field that I thought had a sniff so that makes it tricky and you can start to overthink things. Stripping it down to the basics might be helpful.
Some of the basics for me in a handicap like this are (a) potentially well-handicapped horses, (b) form over course and distance, (c) form at the festival, (d) trainer form and sometimes (e) the jockey. There are other bits and pieces but that’s the gist of it. I won’t bore you with a runner-by-runner breakdown on those criteria but safe to say there are a few that fit the bill.
NORTH HILL HARVEY is one of them, winner over course and distance in December and unlucky not to finish closer in last year’s Champion Hurdle, he is almost certainly underrated in handicap terms.
Ivanovich Gorbatov is intriguing, having won the Triumph Hurdle last year (course and distance win) but not really done anything of note since then. Was that a flash in the pan or will he return to that form? I’m not convinced but it would hardly be a surprise.
Winter Escape is a horse for which there has been a lot of noise in recent days and weeks. He has only ever had 4 runs, just one of which was this year but that was a tame effort at Cheltenham in December and I think I need to see more from him to indicate that he has kicked on from his first season. Big race experience can also be useful and he is lacking in that department.
DIEGO DU CHARMIL is another one I can’t ignore. Winner of the Fred Winter last year over course and distance, he is now a good bit higher in the weights so it’s probably not fair to say that he is well handicapped but that is built into the price and he still has potential to improve. No doubt he has been aimed at the festival again by Paul Nicholls and he could repeat last year’s success.
The two I’m going with are Harvey and Diego because they have course and distance form which is invaluable and both have a bit of class about them. I’m particularly keen on Harvey because a friend of mine who is a good judge in these sort of races thought Harvey would win but hasn’t backed him. You can guarantee he will bolt up now.
Recommendation
- 1 pt e/w – DIEGO DU CHARMIL – 18/1 with 10Bet
- 1 pt e/w – NORTH HILL HARVEY – 8/1 with 10Bet
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
- 2.50pm
- Hurdles
- Almost 3 miles
- This is one for the best young hurdlers over a longer distance (stayers)
They need to be tough as old boots for this but still have a touch of class about them. I’ll keep this review very simple because DEATH DUTY is the favourite and I just can’t see past him. Favourites have a poor record in this race but records are there to be broken and statistics are there to be confounded. Solid form from Ireland, good pedigree and crucially he was man-of-the-moment Gordon Elliott’s best hope for the week. Death Duty is a solid favourite.
Of the others, Wholestone has some rock solid form and Augusta Kate looks like she could be a cracking mare although I’m not convinced this is the best race for her. One at a bigger price is Any Drama for Harry Fry and Noel Fehily who could be anything but we’re going largely on vibes with that one.
Recommendation
- 1 pt win – DEATH DUTY – 2/1 with 10Bet (3 pts in total)
Already advised
- 2 pt win – Death Duty – 2/1
Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
- 3.30pm
- The coup de grace in the National Hunt world
- This is the race that every trainer, owner and jockey wants to win
- 3 miles 2 furlongs
- Run over fences
This is the big one. So much thought and preparation goes into it over the course of the season and for some it can be all over with one bad jump. That was the case for Cue Card who fell three fences from home last year when travelling well. It’s impossible to tell if he would have stayed with Don Cossack up the hill or not. I think he would have struggled. He is another year older now and despite a fabulous season I can’t see him winning. I wouldn’t put you off backing him though and he will get the biggest roar of the week if he can do it.
NATIVE RIVER is Cue Card’s stablemate and the young pretender in the staying chase ranks. His wins in the Hennessy and Welsh National with top weight were stunning and he needs to be taken very seriously indeed. If he is on form as he has been every run this season I can’t see him finishing out of the top 3. I am tipping him to win but there isn’t any shame in backing him each way to protect your stake if you want to do that.
Djakadam has finished second the last twice in this race and he will be there or thereabouts again. You could back him at an each way price antepost but that value has gone now and 3/1 is too short for me. The stats on horses returning to the race and trying to win having failed to do so before are not good but you never know after the day that Mullins and Walsh have just had.
I was so close to tipping Sizing John for the race but I’ve decided that the odds are now too short given the unlikelihood of him staying up the hill. He looked classy in 2 mile chases and managed to translate that into a 3 mile chase win in the Leopardstown Gold Cup last time out. That was a blanket finish though and Empire of Dirt didn’t do the form any favours in the Ryanair. Bizarrely, it looks as though Empire of Dirt takes his chance again in this only 24 hours after disappointing in the Ryanair. That is very unusual and surely he will be too tired to compete after a tough race. If Sizing John drifts to double figure odds later in the day then I would say that probably becomes a backable price.
Of the others most have tried and failed before. One that could be interesting trying the race for the first time at a bigger price is MINELLA ROCCO, based largely on his win last year over Native River in the four mile race here at the festival. I can’t believe I’m tipping a horse for the Gold Cup who has made jumping errors in his last three races but if he can get into a rhythm like he did in the four miler last year and stay within touching distance of the leaders he will be staying on up the hill better than anyone. His jumping frailties are built into his price so we are getting a much bigger price and he might be worth an each way punt in the hope that Jonjo O’Neill has ironed out the kinks in his jumping.
Recommendation
- 3 pt win – NATIVE RIVER – 9/2 with 10Bet
- 1 pt e/w – MINELLA ROCCO – 18/1 with 10Bet
St James Place Foxhunter Chase
- 4.10pm
- The ‘Gold Cup for amateurs’
- 3 miles 2 furlongs
- Lower quality horses
- All amateur jockeys
The Foxhunter gets a bit of a bad rep given the poorer quality of horses that are usually involved but I think it adds to the romance of the festival and is a brilliant opportunity for smaller-scale stables and owners to get involved. It adds to the unique charm of the Festival and of National Hunt racing in general. In recent years it has been dominated somewhat by wealthier owners like JP McManus but it still retains some of that traditional tweed, gin & tonic and jodhpurs charm. Bear in mind that these are all amateur jockeys so the best amateurs like Jamie Codd and Katie Walsh give a huge advantage.
I will keep it simple this year. ON THE FRINGE wins this. Despite his age (12 years old now), his return at Leopardstown in January was as good as he has ever looked at that stage of the season and he always peaks in the Spring. He has always been far too good for the Foxhunting level but he gives JP McManus a nice chance of a festival winner each season and it’s no different this time. Wonderful Charm holds plenty of appeal as an alternative but it’s no guarantee that the distance of this race will suit and the other alternatives don’t look like they will have the class if On The Fringe turns up and does his thing. I tipped him earlier in the week and I’m sticking with him.
I do need to give a shout out to my old mucker Salsify though. He lines up again here at a price of 40/1 and although he has little chance on recent form I will be having a small each way stake on him for old times sake. He won for me in 2012 and 2013 so owes me nothing but I can’t put him up as a selection because his recent form is nowhere near good enough. Wouldn’t it just be brilliant if we could have one more salsification though?
Already advised
3 pt win – On The Fringe – 11/8
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
- 4.50pm
- Run over 2 miles 4 furlongs
- Only conditional jockeys can ride (young jockeys at the start of their careers)
- Hurdle race
This race is often targeted by a trainer who knows he or she has a well-handicapped horse but also knows that he or she has a good conditional jockey who can be a great asset on the day. Squouateur was the big gamble last year but that didn’t come to fruition and he only finished seventh.
I tipped CATAMARAN DU SEUIL earlier in the week because I think he could be a very well handicapped horse and is too big a price.
I am delighted to see that REMILUC is still in the field. This is over slightly further than he has won before but Chris Gordon his trainer stated in the past that this is the best horse he has ever trained and that he has been very unlucky with injuries etc. As a result of that I have followed the horse this season and he has won twice, returning a nice profit. Gordon has a relatively small yard but his horses are in unbelievable form at the minute, albeit not at Cheltenham level.
The statistic is mind-boggling – he won 5 races in one day last week and of the last 14 runners he has had, TEN of them have won. I don’t think I have ever seen that sort of strike rate in a short period of time from anyone never mind a trainer with only 30 or 40 horses in his yard. Don’t get me wrong, Remiluc might be completely outclassed here by a few plot horses and some classy grade 1 horses masquerading as handicappers but at 33/1 I absolutely have to have some of this and I’m increasing my stake for it too because 33/1 is a huge price and if he had been 16/1 I would still have been having an each way bet.
Recommendation
- 2 pt e/w – REMILUC – 33/1 with 10Bet
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
- The ‘get out’ stakes – one last chance to recoup some cash from the bookies
- 2 miles
- Handicap Chase
This is a tricky race so if you’re in clover come the last please don’t lump all your profit on this race.
I’ve actually ended up coming full circle here and I am backing the same horse as I did last year for the race. ROCK THE WORLD finished third despite some bad luck in running and Jessica Harrington has simply put him away and kept him fresh for this. He is only carrying a pound more in the handicap and is available at a slightly higher price than we got last year. He is likely to be backed by the Irish again so get in early. He goes well after a break, has course form and with a bit better luck this year he can get us the win rather than the place.
A nod should also go in the direction of Dodging Bullets who I won’t tip because all the indications are that he is a horse who has downed tools in recent times after previously being a winner of the Champion Chase. If he can recover his former sparkle though he would make a mockery of this.
I hope it goes well for everyone on the last day and no doubt I’ll see you all again for the Aintree Festival and the Grand National in a few weeks time. Good luck!!
Recommendation
- 2 pt e/w – ROCK THE WORLD – 17/2 with 10Bet
testing