Cheltenham Festival: Voice of Value’s Day 2 Tips

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AS I sit typing this guide for day two, Un Temps Pour Tout has just got his nose up in the Ultima which is disappointing after I gave him a good write up but stopped short of tipping him.

Ballyandy and The New One were both bitterly disappointing with The New One’s jumping particularly hard to watch and the position of Ballyandy somewhat questionable to say the least. Thankfully Tiger Roll absolutely bolted up for us at 16/1 to get the festival started and our accumulator is still alive and kicking too.

Day 2 brings plenty more top quality fare from the Cotswolds and there are no doubt a few more winners waiting for us.

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

• 1.30pm
• 2 miles 5 furlongs
• For novice hurdlers
• No age restriction

Another race for novice hurdlers, similar to the Supreme from Tuesday but run over a further 5 furlongs which means we are looking for a classy hurdler who has also given signs that he will be able to travel the extra distance.

The relatively short priced favourite here is NEON WOLF for Harry Fry, one of the best young trainers in Britain and Ireland, arguably the best. Despite his young age he has already trained multiple winners at the festival including Rock on Ruby a few years back when the horse was still technically with Paul Nicholls. Neon Wolf has the best form coming into this, showing a cracking turn of foot in his outings over hurdles so far. The trip and ground wont be a problem and he has all the skill of Noel Fehily aboard. He looks a good thing to me and although he is a short priced favourite I’m happy to get stuck in.

For those that like some each way value, Shattered Love looks a good each way option at a nice price. She is a mare but gets a weight allowance for that and her form in Ireland has been strong, arguably stronger than the form of the Irish geldings. Crucially, Shattered Love is also trained by man of the moment Gordon Elliott who has decided that she is good enough for this race and not the mares novice race.

Recommendation

• 1 pt e/w – SHATTERED LOVE – 11/1 with 10Bet
• Already advised: 2 pt win – Neon Wolf – 2/1

RSA Chase

• 2.10pm
• Run over fences
• Novice chasers i.e. new chasers who didn’t win a chase in the previous year.
• Run over 3 miles so stamina is essential for these younger horses

The RSA looks wide open to me this year. I tipped American last week but he has now been taken out of the race so we get our money back and try to find the winner again.

Might Bite is the favourite, largely as a result of his performance at Kempton at Chirstmas when he looked set to win the novice chase in a quicker time than Thistlecrack won the King George over the same distance. The catch is that Might Bite then fell at the last. The performance was still eye catching though and you can understand why he is favourite for this.

Acapella Bourgeois won a fascinating race last time out where Roger Loughran managed to get the horse a huge lead of over 20 lenghts which the rest of the jockeys let him have without trying to go with him. It backfired and Acapella skooshed up by 32 lengths leaving the rest of the jockeys with red faces. It’s not clear whether Acapella was awesome or if they just let him get away too early. What was clear was that he jumps well and stays the distance no problem. There is no chance that he will get the same lead here at Cheltenham though and he would prefer softer ground.

Whisper is an old pal who has come to the chasing game comparatively late on at the age of 9 and although he has good Cheltenham form having won the Coral Cup three years ago I think we need to be looking for a young improver rather than an older horse who has probably peaked. Alpha Des Obeaux burst a blood vessel last time and his wellbeing needs to be taken on trust. Even then his form isn’t the best in the field either.

Bellshill is probably the each way value at this point at odds of around 8/1. He has some class but his Cheltenham Festival form has been poor in the past. Is that because he is better in the winter rather than the spring or is it just a coincidence? I’m not sure but I’ve been right through the field and I actually think that the favourite has now drifted to a price where it is worth taking a chance on him. Had he not fallen at the last with the race at his mercy that performance at Kempton would be far and away the best bit of form and 100/30 is probably a fair price now.

Recommendation

• 2 pt win – MIGHT BITE – 100/30 with 10Bet
• Already advised: 2 pt e/w – American (now a non runner so money back)

Coral Cup

• 2.50pm
• Hurdles race
• Run over 2 miles 5 furlongs
• Notoriously competitive and difficult to find a winner
• Last 12 favourites have all been beaten

Hugely competitive race where you really need a quality horse to win it.

As I said previously winners need to have a high cruising speed but also be able to make it up the hill at the end and there is no doubt that a good dollop of luck is needed to get a good position during the race.

Tombstone looked to be heading for the Champion Hurdle at one stage such was the confidence of his connections but the handicap mark he was given was so favourable in the eyes of his owners and trainer that he now goes for this. That is a tip in itself but 4/1 is too short for me in a race like this where the last 12 favourites have all been beaten. I’m not even convinced that the horse was anywhere near good enough for the Champion Hurdle in any event.

I’m a big admirer of Modus but he may be carrying top weight or close to it and that would be a tough ask. The one that I tipped last week for the race is PEREGRINE RUN and he is still a lovely price. The win he had over this course and distance in November was excellent. He beat Wholestone and West Approach who have both been very impressive since then and with the ground coming good for him he has a cracking chance at a nice each way price. Although he is a novice he has had a good bit of experience so shouldn’t be too perturbed by the hussle and bustle of Cheltenham. I’m recommending another bet on him to top up the bet I recommended last week.

10Bet are offering 5 places for each way bets on the race so I looked at Automated for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy as a possible each way alternative but he is a tricky horse and by all accounts it took a peach of ride from Bryan Cooper to get a win last time. He doesn’t look like the obvious plot horse and seems quite hard to win with. At a bigger price I think I’ll take a chance on OLD GUARD for Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston Davies.

To be honest I don’t think Sam has covered himself in glory so far this week – he got Ballyandy in all sorts of trouble in the Supreme for example – but he is a good jockey and will be keen to get a winner on the board. The horse is tough as old boots and although his recent form hasn’t quite been as good as last season there was a hint of a revival two runs back. This sort of battle will suit him and if he can get back to the sort of form he had in the Lanzarote Hurdle 18 months ago he could go very close here at a big price.

Recommendations

• 1 pt e/w – PEREGRINE RUN – 17/2 with 10Bet (5 places)
• 0.5 pt e/w – OLD GUARD – 22/1 with 10Bet (5 places)
• Already advised: 1 pt e/w Peregrine Run – 11/1

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

• 3.30pm
• The pinnacle for 2 mile chasers
• Won by Sprinter Sacre last year in fabulous style

The race won’t be able to top last year for drama and theatre as Sprinter Sacre made an incredible comeback to win the race for the second time after being very close to retirement.

One horse who someday might be regarded in the same light is DOUVAN who should win this race very comfortably. He isn’t a betting proposition as a single although we popped him in the accumulator yesterday so just sit back and enjoy the spectacle as another equine superstar takes centre stage.

Recommendation

• No bet (Douvan wins)

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

• 4.10pm
• A thorough test of stamina at almost 4 miles with lots of twists and turns
• Run over a variety of obstacles including hedges, steep banks and Grand National style fences

I just love this race. It hails back to the roots of national hunt racing and the spectacle of watching the horses pile over all variety of obstacles is a sight to behold.

I went into some detail on this one in my antepost preview last week but it is worth re-iterating some of that again.

The previous form over Cross Country courses (generally Cheltenham and Punchestown) is usually pretty solid and you can discount a good chunk of the field, particularly if they are lacking Cross Country experience.

I’ve found over the years that it pays to follow the favourite in this race and usually the Irish trainer Enda Bolger is involved. He is the Cross Country King and even has a replica cross country course attached to his stables. His horses usually have a huge advantage in the race as we saw last year with Josie’s Orders who finished second but was promoted to first after Any Currency was disqualified. Josie’s Orders is one of Enda Bolger’s horses and he won this race in 2015 too.

Josie’s Orders is injured this year but Bolger has another favourite in the shape of CANTLOW. He has been excellent recently in Cross Country races winning at Punchestown and Cheltenham in November and December and then losing by three lengths to the French-trained Urgent De Gregaine in a big upset in January back at Cheltenham. The French horse is now a non-runner for this which is an added bonus.

Cause of Causes has emerged as a real gamble for the race in recent days. A two-time festival winner in the past with Jamie Codd on board and Gordon Elliott talking him up, it’s hard to ignore him, particularly when we were on last year at a lovely price for the Kim Muir but you can’t be too careful with sentimental bets in this game (just look at me following Vroum Vroum when the head was telling me that Apple’s Jade was the bet).

I think Cause of Cause’s style of running doesn’t suit the cross country – he likes to sit out the back and get into a rhythm. He can be a bit slow at times and if he does that here with all the twists and turns he could end up too far behind to make an impression at the end.

I still like Cantlow for the race and the good news is we’re now getting 11/4 rather than 2/1 so I’ll have an extra point on at that price thank you very much. Better to be hung for a sheep as a lamb…

One other horse that is completely the wrong price is BALLYBOKER BRIDGE. I made an each way case for him last year at 16/1 or thereabouts and he just missed out on a place, finishing 5th. He is available at 33/1 this year and the same case can be made. He should be much shorter.

Recommendation

• 1 pt win – CANTLOW –11/4 with 10Bet
• 0.5 pts e/w – BALLYBOKER BRIDGE – 33/1 with 10Bet
• Already advised: 2 pt win – Cantlow – 2/1

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

• 4.50pm
• Run over 2 miles
• Only 4 year old horses can enter
• Aimed principally at juveniles that aren’t quite good enough for the Triumph Hurdle

Never a whole lot of form to go on, this race is prime hunting ground for a trainer with one up his sleeve that hasn’t been found out by the handicapper yet. Last year I managed to find the winner in the shape of Diego Du Charmil and perhaps the same approach will yield a winner this year.

Paul Nicholls is a master with the French imports at this age. He seems to be able to identify the best horses and then develop them into competitive hurdlers and chasers in Britain. The two he has entered in the race this year are DOLOS and DREAMCATCHING. He was originally quite bullish about Dreamcatching but in recent days the word seems to be that Dolos is working very well at home. Stan Sheppard is a useful young jockey who gets a weight allowance and will improve Dreamcatching’s chances even further.

I’m tempted simply to back both of them against the field in a tried and tested approach to finding the winner.

A notable mention must also go to Divin Bere who beat my fancy for the Triumph Hurdle last time out and must therefore be in with a very strong chance. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing him but 5/1 is just a bit on the short side for me.

Recommendation

• 1 pt e/w – DOLOS – 10/1 with 10Bet
• 1 pt e/w – DREAMCATCHING – 12/1 with 10Bet

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

• This race is run on the flat – no hurdles or fences
• 2 miles
• Younger horses tend to run in this race before moving on to hurdles races the following year
• The race has a good record of winners who go on to become good hurdlers and chasers

The Irish normally have a strong hand in the Bumper but there don’t seem to be quite so many positive noises this year and it will be interest to see if one of the English horses can do the business.

I have already tipped up QUICK GRABIM on the basis of some decent form and some very positive vibes from Noel Fehily about the horse.

I’m not keen on the favourite Carter McKay and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drifts in the market before the race. There are three others that catch the eye for varying reasons. Someday is one because he has been the horse on everyone’s lips all week and the win at Leopardstown looks solid. Next Destination is another, simply because Ruby has chosen to ride it and I’ll never forgive myself for leaving Briar Hill unbacked in similar circumstances in 2013.

The third is FAYONAGH for Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd. She absolutely hosed up last time out and there is no telling just how good she is. With Elliott in great form and Jamie Codd on board she might just be the one. I can’t guarantee that I won’t stick a few quid on Ruby nearer the time though!

Recommendations

• 1 pt e/w – FAYONAGH – 10/1 with 10Bet
• Already advised: 1 pt e/w – Quick Grabim – 20/1

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