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THE third day of the Festival starts to separate the wheat from the chaff as the drinking and gambling catches up with the novices and a few end up tailed off at the back of the field…
For those still going strong the racing remains world class.
JLT Novices Chase
I think this race revolves around YORKHILL. He was a belter of a winner for me last year in the Neptune and if that horse turns up for the JLT then the rest are in real trouble. His price is a bit short at 6/4 just now so I think I’ll wait and see if that drifts out a bit but I can’t see past him if he jumps round safely. Notable mentions for Politologue and Disko who both have excellent form but they are also pretty low odds as things stand.
Recommendation
- No bet
Pertemps Hurdle Final
Not as tricky as some of the other handicap races. There’s one that I’ve had my eye on this season and thankfully last time out he did enough to qualify for the race without attracting too much attention, finishing 2nd by some distance to Gayebury.
That horse is JURY DUTY and if you watch that last race at Chepstow he is given a very easy time of it by David Mullins who quickly realises that Gayebury is going to win and lets him go. There is no way there was really 13 lengths between them that day and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jury Duty reverse the form. He is clearly a well-handicapped horse and although the price has been trimmed a bit in recent days he still looks a great bet to me at 17/2.
Recommendation
- 2 pt e/w – Jury Duty – 17/2 NRNB with 10Bet
Ryanair Chase
The 2 miles 5 furlongs in the Ryanair almost feels like 3 miles by the time you take the uphill finish into account. The race has been thrown into turmoil over the last 48 hours with the news that Don Poli has been ruled out of the Gold Cup because the knock-on effect is that the 2nd favourite for this race Empire of Dirt might now go for the Gold Cup instead.
Un De Sceaux is the favourite for the race and if the ground ends up being fairly soft on Thursday it’s difficult to see past him. Un De Sceaux has serious pedigree over 2 miles, winning the Arkle Chase two years ago and then a very respectable second in the Champion Chase to the legendary Sprinter Sacre last year.
Some people have concerns that he wont see out the longer trip for this race but he has won a hurdles race in France over a similar distance and I don’t see it as a major problem. The major concern would be the ground as I mentioned – Un De Sceaux is definitely better on soft ground and I’m reluctant to take a price of 2/1 for a horse who has a major question mark on good ground. I would be more inclined to take the 4/1 about Empire of Dirt who has solid form over course and distance last year, winning a good handicap at the festival in some style.
That’s not the sort of tip that will get Tom Segal fearing for his future at the Racing Post though so I’ll hold off until the day of the race to see if there is any better value to be had. It certainly looks like a two horse race to me at the moment, perhaps three horses if you include Uxizandre but his price is far too short to be considered a reasonable each way value bet.
Recommendation
- No bet
Stayers Hurdle
Thistlecrack sloshed up last year but he’s gone chasing this year and has subsequently ended up injured so it’s now a case of finding the next winner.
Unowwhatimeanharry has been head and shoulders above all his peers in this division so far this season. Since moving to Harry Fry in November 2015 he has won 8 races on the bounce and it would be no surprise to see him win again here. The current prices are plenty short enough though and there might be some value in looking elsewhere though I wouldn’t dissuade people from sticking him in your accumulator for the week.
SNOW FALCON is one that I think is overpriced. He has finished very close to Shaneshill and Vroum Vroum Mag on his last two starts and before that he fell three out when travelling well and might have challenged Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury in November. I’m tempted to take the favourite out of this and look for the each way value in the ‘without the favourite’ market and that lets us put Harry in our accumulators without being conflicted. I was surprised to see Snow Falcon as big as 10/1 in that market and that looks a decent way to play this race for me.
Recommendation
- 2 pts e/w – Snow Falcon – 10/1 NRNB ‘Without Unowhatimeanharry’ with 10Bet
Brown Advisory & Meriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase
Another competitive handicap where a tentative nod goes to BARON ALCO who was a profitable horse to follow over hurdles (though not necessarily at Cheltenham) and I think he can develop into a better chaser than he was a hurdler. He is also flexible in terms of ground which is helpful. I’ll revisit this race again on the night before once we know more about the intended runners and jockey bookings.
Recommendation
- 1 pt e/w – Baron Alco – 12/1 NRNB with 10Bet
Mares Novice Hurdle
There remains some uncertainty about the intended runners in this from Willie Mullins’ yard and he so often holds the key to mares races at the festival. I’m not sure that any of his entries are superstars though and I’m going for an English trained alternative at a nice each way price. Paul Nicholls is keen on COILLTE LASS and she definitely goes for this race and I can see her running into a place.
Recommendation
- 1 pt e/w – Coillte Lass – 14/1 NRNB with 10Bet
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase
It now looks like this race will be the intended target for Mall Dini (and not the Ultima as I had suggested previously) and he retains some appeal for this race. His price at the moment is half what it was for the other race though and jockey bookings haven’t been confirmed so I’ll stop short of tipping him at this stage.
The suspicion is that Squouateur has been a plot horse for JP McManus and Gordon Elliott for some time but there is also the chance that he just isn’t particularly good over fences and 7/1 is a bit on the short side. There are a few at bigger prices that appeal but I would really need to know who the intended jockeys are going to be before making a firm decision. I can’t emphasise enough the importance of the jockey in these amateur races.
Recommendation
- No bet
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