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Plenty more fun to be had on the second day of the festival with the Champion Chase being the highlight. There’s no reason not to start getting involved now given the non runner no bet (NRNB) concession from 10Bet so let’s see if we can find any value…
Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
Similar conditions to the Supreme on Tuesday except that this one is run over an extra 5 furlongs or so. Lots of horses are entered for both this and the Supreme or for this and the Albert Bartlett (Friday). One such horse is NEON WOLF for trainer Harry Fry. His form is fantastic and if you go back and watch his win at Haydock you can’t be anything other than impressed.
He beat Elgin by 9 lengths and he’s a decent yardstick. Unfortunately his form hasn’t gone unnoticed and he is now the 2/1 favourite. I’m still happy to back him though because he’ll almost certainly go off shorter. We’ll maybe also have a look at putting him in an accumulator nearer the time.
- Recommendation: 2 pt win – Neon Wolf – 2/1 NRNB with 10Bet
RSA Chase
A race run over 3 miles for first season chasers, the RSA looks ultra-competitive as usual and there are plenty of horses who appeal. Alpha Des Obeaux and Whisper are two old friends that appeal but the one that really jumps out at me is another Harry Fry horse as it happens.
AMERICAN is a nice each way price, definitely has this race as his target and his performance last time out when he comfortably beat Champers on Ice is one of the better pieces of form for the race. He would be my idea of the value at this point in time with the favourite Might Bite far too short a price for a competitive race like this. American probably wants the ground to be on the soft side – if it isn’t soft enough he might not run but in that event we get our money back.
- Recommendation: 1 pt e/w – American – 17/2 NRNB with 10Bet
Coral Cup
Arguably the most competitive handicap of the festival and notoriously difficult to win or indeed to pick the winner for. Winners need to have a high cruising speed but also be able to make it up the hill at the end and there is no doubt that a good dollop of luck is needed to get a good position during the race.
Tombstone was considered for the Champion Hurdle at one stage but the owner Michael O’Leary and trainer Gordon Elliott were surprised at the fair handicap mark he was given so he goes for this. That is a tip in itself but the price has come down accordingly and 5/1 is too short for me in a race like this. I’m a big admirer of Modus but he may be carrying top weight or close to it and that would be a tough ask. Jury Duty is another I’m following but I think he is more likely to go for the Pertemps Hurdle instead.
The one that has been jumping out at me for a while is PEREGRINE RUN. I’m amazed he is still available at double figure odds given the win he had over this course and distance in November. He beat Wholestone and West Approach who have both been very impressive since then and assuming the ground isn’t too soft he has a cracking chance here and is a nice each way price. Although he is a novice he has had a good bit of experience so shouldn’t be too perturbed by the hussle and bustle of Cheltenham.
- Recommendation: 1 pt e/w – Peregrine Run – 11/1 NRNB with 10Bet
Queen Mother Champion Chase
A beezer of a race last year with my tip of the day Sprinter Sacre bolting back into the big time with an incredible win. This year the old warrior has been retired and there is no Un De Sceux but a new superstar might be ready to take centre stage.
Douvan is one of the best horses of his generation and could be one of the best of all time. He won the Arkle chase easily last year and the prices suggest he will step up to this level with no difficulty. Much like Altior in the Arkle, this is probably just a race to watch rather than one to have a bet in. There is no obvious alternative to Douvan that we should follow in the ‘without Douvan’ market so for the time being I won’t be having a bet in this one.
- Recommendation: No bet
Cross Country Chase
There are those who knock this race but it’s one of my favourite races of the festival. The previous form over Cross Country courses (generally Cheltenham and Punchestown) is usually pretty solid and you can discount a good chunk of the field, particularly if they are lacking Cross Country experience.
I’ve found over the years that it pays to follow the favourite in this race and usually the Irish trainer Enda Bolger is involved. He is the Cross Country King and even has a replica cross country course attached to his stables. His horses usually have a huge advantage in the race as we saw last year with Josie’s Orders who finished second but was promoted to first after Any Currency was disqualified (albeit several months later when it was too late to pay out my bets!) Josie’s Orders is one of Enda Bolger’s horses and he won this race in 2015 too.
Josie’s Orders is injured this year but Bolger has another favourite in the shape of CANTLOW. He has been excellent recently in Cross Country races winning at Punchestown and Cheltenham in November and December and then losing by three lengths to the French-trained Urgent De Gregaine in a big upset in January back at Cheltenham. The French horse is entered again for this but the big difference is that everyone races off level weights this time.
Urgent De Gregaine was carrying almost a stone less than Cantlow so Cantlow should be able to reverse the form this time. There is also the fact that Bolger tends to have his horses peaking just in time for the festival. I see no reason to oppose Cantlow who should have Mark Walsh on board as the jockey (won on him on his last two wins) and is still a nice price.
- Recommendation: Cantlow – 3 pt win – 2/1 NRNB with 10Bet
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Fiercely competitive handicap for the youngsters with little form to go on and I’ve not had a chance to dig into it yet. I’m planning to wait until the day before so I know which horses have gone for the Triumph Hurdle and which are going for this. Check back next week for my daily guide where I’ll have a closer look and hopefully find the winner.
- Recommendation: No bet
Champion Bumper
I must admit I’m not a huge fan of bumper races in general and this one can be really tricky to find the winner in although I did manage to back Moon Racer at a decent price a couple of years ago. Given the lack of racecourse experience with most of them, it often pays to follow the confidence of connections and market support although in saying that the favourite Carter McKay is far too short in the market and doesn’t look like any sort of value to me.
One of these who didn’t look like much of a champion last time out was QUICK GRABIM but that is incorporated into his price now where he is a 20/1 shot. The two interesting things about this horse are that his trainer Robbie McNamara will be absolutely desperate for a winner at Cheltenham in his first season as a trainer and also that Noel Fehily apparently is very keen to ride the horse at the festival after riding him last time.
Fehily is a great judge and that interest is enough for me at this stage to have a small each way. We’ll revisit the race and have a look at some of the more obvious ones next week.
- Recommendation: 1 pt e/w – Quick Grabim – 20/1 NRNB with 10Bet
