Cheltenham Festival: Nick Luck’s Day 1 Tips

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WHAT makes the Champion Hurdle (3.30) so intriguing is it’s such a hard race to call. With the absence of the last two winners and with all last season’s leading novice hurdlers going chasing it’s a division that looks ripe for the taking. Throw in the fact tall the form lines intertwine and you have a doubly difficult race to unravel.

My selection for the race is PETIT MOUCHOIR who is the coming force, the horse in form and who has a very straightforward and likeable way of going about his business. Sure, if he is going to be ridden forward then he wouldn’t want too much pace pressure but he’s a fantastic jumper for whom the demands of this race should be ideal. On recent form I think he should be much closer to the top two in the betting that he currently is, and as such, he gets the vote. That’s not to say I have any significant negatives about Yanworth and Buveur D’Air, both of whom have obvious chances. Of the pairI  suspect the former has the more star quality.

Of those at bigger prices I can understand why people are trying to fashion a case for old-timers The New One and My Tent Or Yours, but it remains a stretch of the imagination to think they can outperform their previous efforts in this race and that is something they would have to do if they were to win, in my opinion.

Much more of a danger is Brain Power who evidently has tons of speed but, similarly, isn’t the most straightforward and whether he can hack it in a championship race remains to be seen.

At the time of writing, the four Willie Mullins-trained horses had not been jocked up, or at least that information hasn’t found its way to the Press Association, and there really ought to be a strict deadline on when this information needs to be confirmed. The assumption has to be that Melon will go off favourite and I suspect the overall standard required to win this race isn’t as high as it normally is. As such I’m happy to take a chance that one of the unexposed Willie Mullins horses can take the requisite step forward, and it might not be the one everyone thinks – i.e. Melon.

CRACK MOME was very impressive at Clonmel early in the season and he might have just bumped into a very smart horse at Punchestown when last seen. The fact that connections were disappointed with that run despite posting a Racing Post Rating of 142 suggests to me that Crack Mome is a horse of significant potential. He hasn’t been talked about much in the build up to this meeting but I don’t think he’s done an awful lot less than Melon and, at the time of writing at least, he’s four times the price.

I love Ballyandy as a horse but there is no juice in his price now. Whilst it’s easy to see him running a big race, I’m not convinced the standard he sets is insurmountable. If there is one that could run well at a big price it might be Elgin who didn’t have the rub of the green behind River Wylde in the Dovecote and he might be able to reverse that form.

Like everyone else, I’m working on the basis Altior wins the Arkle (2.10) barring a mishap but if you want a bet for the forecast, an each-way bet, a bold win bet or a bet without the favourite, then the horse that makes most appeal is CLOUDY DREAM. In the early part of the season he looked one of the most exciting horses to come out of the north in years and although he’s been beaten a couple of times since, I think he’s still got some potential and his trainer is proven at getting his horses to the festival in great shape.

One of the best bets on the opening day is UN TEMPS POUR TOUT to repeat his victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50). He’s hardly had any racing over fences since then and although he is 7lb higher this time, he won pulling a cart and this is the first time he’s had his conditions since. Plenty of people have been telling me to back The Druids Nephew off a similar mark to his win in the race a couple of years ago but I was really taken with Un Temps Pour Tout last year and it’s clearly been the plan by connections to target a repeat success.

It looks as though the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (4.10) will be heading back to Ireland once again given Irish-trained horses dominate the market. There are some seriously classy mares in here and I think JER’S GIRL might be the value. She is trained by a very capable operator in Gavin Cromwell and I think at a double-figure price, she is a very nice each-way play.

I don’t have an especially strong view on the National Hunt Chase (4.45) but BEWARE THE BEAR can go well. He has some very smart form from earlier in the season, has been freshened up for this and will relish the decent ground.

The concluding Close Brothers Handicap (5.30) can go the way of Dan Skelton whose IT’SAFREEBEE has had a wind operation since las seen, has got cheekpieces on and who has been primed to run a big race in what is probably half a grade below his actual ability.

Recommendations

• 1:30 CRACK MOME 10/1 10Bet
• 2:10 CLOUDY DREAM (e/w) 16/1 10Bet
• 2:50 UN TEMPS POUR TOUT 14/1 10Bet
• 3:30 PETIT MOUCHOIR 8/1 10Bet
• 4:10 JER’S GIRL 10/1 10Bet
• 4:50 BEWARE THE BEAR 7/1 10Bet
• 5:30 IT’SAFREEBEE 9/1 10Bet

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