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JOHNB'S been looking at Tuesday's Champion Hurdle and here's his thoughts on why Our Conor looks a great bet at 25-1. That of course is to win by four lengths or more.
Our man John says: “I think everyone will know by now how much I fancy this horse. I have heard on here he beat nothing last year in the Triumph Hurdle. My answer is it's not who you beat but how you win and that 15-length win was impressive.
“I have also heard he won't get up the hill but he is a course winner and was going further clear last year when he hit the hill and you could tell with his action the hill was no problem.
“It's also pointed out only one 5yo has won the Champion Hurdle in the last 25 years which is true but it has been done but when looking at stats you need to look deeper.
“Over the last 10 years in this race you will see there have been 27 5yo’s, 1 winner and another 6 placed, so 7 out of 27 in first 3 home.
“Compare this to other ages & you will see it's not too bad a stat:
6yo’s 2 winners & 4 placed from 37 runners
7yo’s 4 winners & 3 placed from 26 runners
8yo’s 2 winners & 4 placed from 22 runners
9yo’s 1 winner & 2 placed from 9 runners
10+yo’s 0 winners & 1 placed from 15 runners
“This tells us 7yo’s have had the most winners but take into account horses finishing in the first 3 then the stats are pretty even. It has also been said Hurricane Fly will win.
“So let's go back to the stats. In the last 50 years only Sea Pigeon has won when older than 9 and that was in 1981. Also in the last 10 years only 1 horse older than 9 has been placed.
“I have also heard Hurricane Fly has beaten Our Conor twice this season – both those wins were at Leopardstown which is a track that suits Hurricane Fly as it's a flat course and they are not to the liking of Our Conor.
“Last year Our Conor improved with every run & peaked at Cheltenham which is when you want your horse to peak. This year Our Conor has again got better with every run & again should peak for the Festival.
“The first of those two defeats to Hurricane fly was 6 lengths & the next one was 1 & 1/2 lengths which was a good run from Our Conor on Hurricane’s favoured course.
“Dessie Hughes is the master for building horses up steady & getting them to peak for a certain race, just look at Dessie’s two-time Champion Hurdle winner Hardy Eustace.
“The first time Hardy Eustace won the Champion Hurdle he had lost 4 of his previous 5 races that season but peaked for Cheltenham. The following season he lost 3 out of 4 races before again peaking for Cheltenham & winning the Champion Hurdle.
“Hughes will have Oor Conor ready for Tuesday & you will see something special. I see you can get 25-1 with 888sport for Our Conor to win by 4+ lengths which is tempting.”
In December 2020 we sadly 
Now Un De Sceaux doesn’t go it’s a different race .Ruby and Wille must be super confident to leave out Annie Power and Un De Sceaux
Our Conner for the f/cast.
Wicklow Brave in the supreme novices e/w @16/1 or lay Irvine.Reasoning later.
Mr F,,, do you know if the ‘ our Conor -4 lengths plus’ win at 25/1 will be available at any, ‘in shop’ ???
Joe, I don’t know to be honest but I doubt it.
Duncan
Where are you getting the 16s on Wicklow Brave?
Ive backed it at 13/2. Assume ante-post??
Joe if you go in shop you can ask them to phone up for a price as some bookies will do that even though they havnt got that bet advertised
Duncan i think it was the owner that didnt want to run un de sceaux because they wanted to save him for punchestown
Anybody who bets our conor to win by 1 length never mind 4 is either foolish with there money or has loads ,not a chance ! I do think hurricane will win but whoeverr wins race will not win by over 1 or 2 lenghts !
Hurrican is past its best.
My tent or yours, get on it 9/2
All over jezki at 9/1,ap picked the wrong one
sorry Willie should have been 6/1 Stella from Belgium made me type 16 by mistake
supreme novices
1 horses that have won at least half of their hurdle races
2 those that have run within at least the last two months
3 Eight of the last 10 winners started their careers in Bumpers
leaving
UN ACE
VICE ET VERTU
WICKLOW BRAVE
4 UN ACE only run once over hurdles ….so out
5 eight of the last 10 winners have won their last race
leaves which leaves WICKLOW BRAVE
easy lol
Johnb u can get our conor @888 to win by 3 lengths@25/1 also reading Sunday mirror they’ve a write up on why our conor is ready for Tuesday good luck all on him cheers Johnb
Yeah i saw that thanks Jimba
JohnB, regarding your selections for each of the 27 races, if you were using points system for these races, what points would you stake on each race? Cheers in advance
God damn it iv been backing the Fly for the last month, love the horse….very worried after reading this though, big John B fan. what to do, what to do!? :-O
Been on Our Conor for several months now, and reading various websites and racing publications I see no reason to come off the horse.
Is it a race that is generally won by 3 lengths or more?
Would it be worth a little something betting on all four of the top contenders winning by 3 lengths or more given the odds?
Our Conor was so impressive last year. The New One was unlucky at the Christmas hurdle I thought. This is the most interesting race of the meeting for me – can’t wait to see it.
Craigk i would just advise people to set aside an amount they can afford & split it evenly between the amount of races that they are backing
yves1235 its not a race well known for big winning distances & i think the average for last 5 years is 2 lengths its just i think our conor is that good
Will do Johnb cheers for replying to me
I’ve already backed the New One JB, but your write up has me hyped for Our Conor…going to do the forecast on the day too :-D
Thanks JohnB
I have done a bit of research and the winning distances for anyone interested are:
2013 Hurricane Fly 2 1/2L
2012 Rock On Ruby 3 3/4L
2011 Hurricane Fly 1 1/4L
2010 Binocular 3 1/2L
2009 Punjabi Neck
2008 Katchit 1L
2007 Sublimity 3L
2006 Brave Inca 1L
2005 Hardy Eustace Neck
2004 Hardy Eustace 5L
2003 Rooster Booster 11L
2002 Hors La Loi III 3L