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We enter the second day of the Festival after a good day of racing from the opening day. The first race of the day is none other than the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1).
In recent times, this race has been won by ‘hype jobs' who looked to have the world at their feet, but never really progressed as we all thought, so hopefully the winner of this turns into a top-class horse. By hype jobs, I mean the likes of Bob Olinger, Envoi Allen and Samcro. Those horses did continue to win Grade 1s, but they were all deemed to be the next big thing of the National Hunt scene.
Five of the last ten winners have gone off as favourite, so following the market isn't a bad idea, albeit those who did win as favourite, three were odds-on shots.
Cheltenham 1:30 – Impaire Et Passe 13/8 (2pt)
This is an interesting race as you have some good form from both sides of the Irish sea. I'll start off with the British main hope in Hermes Allen.
Paul Nicholls' 6yo gelding of Poliglote is unbeaten over hurdles, winning in great style on every run this season. His best run was undoubtedly in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He led them from start to finish and never saw another rival, absolutely cantering over the opposition and running through the soft ground like it was good-to-firm. The form of that race has been franked by the runner-up, who won a Grade 2 Mares' race and the fifth won a Listed event. Crambo, who was pulled up, won the Grade 3 handicap at Sandown on the weekend just gone, so there's definite substance to this form. My main concern is whether the form is as good as the Irish form, as we've seen in recent years, that the British form for the novice races isn't that strong, and I think that this could be another. All you've got to do is look at the Supreme from yesterday when the first 8 home were all Irish trained, and people believe Nicholls' horse in that had a chance, he was nowhere to be seen.
One of the major gambles of last year's Festival was Gaelic Warrior in the Fred Winter Juvenile handicap. He probably should've won it that day, but his jumping did let him down. He has progressed nicely since that race, but his jumping is still an issue. He gets over from one side to another, no problem, but he jumps out to the right, and it can be quite violently out to the right, which is a major concern. Another thing that is a concern to me is how both jockeys for Mullins have avoided the ride and have opted for others, that stinks to me. If he won, it wouldn't surprise me at all, but he has too many questions to answer, with the trip being a concern.
I'm not one for taking rumours into consideration, but there's been a lot of speculation about how good Impaire Et Passe is. Normally, when the rumours floating around are this strong from the Willie Mullins camp, they rarely get it wrong. Obviously, Gaelic Warrior fumbled the bag last year, but the money was down and he chuckled that race, and it goes to show they know what level of horse they have. Impaire Et Passe has done nothing wrong in his two runs for Willie, winning two egg and spoon races, with the latter being a Grade 2. That run produced an RPR of 149, which is a very good level for just his second run, and that race has been won by some superstars like Min, Douvan and Vautor, so is used as a springboard before going onto bigger and better things, and he equalled Douvan's RPR in that race and was better than Vautour, so it goes to show what kind of horse we might have on our hands. Paul Townend has opted to ride this lad, and I think he could be a very smart horse. You're taking a lot of it on things you've heard through the grapevine, but I don't think this race looks particularly strong, and he might be too good for them, albeit he is a short enough price.
Good Land comes into this race as a previous Grade 1 winner. He travelled smoothly through that race but didn't win in the style I thought he would by the way he travelled. The form doesn't look particularly strong, but with Barry Connell winning the Supreme yesterday, it wouldn't surprise me if this lad goes on to win them a double under Michael O'Sullivan.
If American Mike wins this, I will eat my hat. I remember when Jamie Codd was full of praise for this horse before he got beat by Facile Vega in last year's Bumper at Cheltenham. I mentioned yesterday how the form of that bumper race hasn't worked out, and American Mike plays a part in that, he's been a hype horse who hasn't jumped well this season, and I don't think he's that great.
