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I DON'T care about any other horse on Tuesday but Mucky Molly – which is running in the 5.05 at Southwell.
Almost named after my dug mucky Milly I backed her at 33-1 a couple of months ago – and I'm pleased to see Milesey backing the horse. Here are all his Tuesday tips.
GOWRAN PARK
RUBY DOUBLE
4.40 URANO
Successful in two NH flat races at 1m 6f and 1m 7f on good and soft ground. Beaten 4l by Legal Exit when second of 20 at 1-2fav on his latest outing in a maiden hurdle race at Leopardstown over 2m (soft – heavy) in January.
5.45 SECURITY BREACH
A winner at 7-4 in a maiden hurdle race at Wexford over 2m (heavy) on his latest outing last month, beating King of The Picts by 1l.
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO
He has won two hurdle races and a NH flat race from 1m 7f to 2m on good to soft ground. Won on his latest outing in a NH flat race when 9-4 fav at Southwell over 2m last month, beating Dr Livingstone by 2 1/4l.
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY
Placed in a NH flat race and five chases from 11 starts. Beaten 1 3/4l by Mcmurrough when second of seven at 6-1 on his latest outing in a chase at Newcastle over 2m 4f (good to soft) earlier this month.
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM
A winner of a NH flat race at 2m 1f on good to soft ground. Beaten a neck by Izzini when second of six at 13-8 fav on his latest outing in a NH flat race at Sedgefield over 2m 1f (good to soft) last month.
PONTEFRACT
2.40 THE WELSH WIZARD
Placed in both starts. Third of eight behind Incorporate beaten 7l at 5-2 on his latest outing at Doncaster over 1m 2f (soft) last month.
4.45 AYR MISSILE
Placed twice in three starts. Third of 10 behind Pure Excellence beaten 2 1/4l at 2-1fav on her latest outing at Beverley over 5f (good to firm) in July last year. She is wearing a hood for the first time.
SOUTHWELL
3.00 HAMOODY
Winner of seven races from 5f to 6f including 3 wins on polytrack. Won on his latest outing when 2-7 fav at Wolverhampton over 5f last month, beating Athwaab by 2 1/2l. Has won twice at Wolverhampton this season.
4.35 STENTORIAN (NAP)
He has won four times from 7f to 1m 6f including 3 wins on the all-weather (1 FB, 2 PO). Won on his latest outing when 11-8fav here over 1m 6f earlier this month, beating Calculating by 9l. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success. Has won 3 times this season.
AND ONE FOR MR FIXIT …
Southwell 5.05
MUCKY MOLLY
She has won three times from 6f to 7f including a win on fibresand. Beaten 5l by Mataajir when second of 8 at 4-1 on her latest outing over this course and distance last month.
RACE IN FOCUS
Pontefract 4.15
Kingsdesire won first two starts and not disgraced when runner-up in a couple of small-field minor events subsequently, though rather exposing his limitations. Bombed out in handicap in Dubai in January.
Fluidity was much improved when winning 9.5f Gowran handicap final start in 2012 for Ger Lyons. Big rise in the weights to overcome starting out in Britain for new yard now.
Easy Terms won six of seven starts in handicaps from April 2011 before tailed off in Old Newton Cup at Haydock when last seen last summer. Gone well fresh, so not discounted if raring to go on return.
Hit The Jackpot won 8.5f Galway maiden in July 2011 for Dermot Weld. Raced in better company last spring and not seen to best effect in the Lincoln for new yard. Worth keeping on side this season.
Spanish Duke was hard to catch right for John Dunlop but contested some good races after winning valuable 1¼m handicap at Epsom on 2011 return. Headgear on starting out for new yard and market check a must.
Moccasin won 1m maiden in France last spring and held form well in defeat after. Should stay this far and could have more to come for new yard this term.
Sirvino is a classy handicapper who posted some sound efforts to his name without winning in 2012. Has dropped to a lenient mark ahead of return and gone well here in the past. Bold bid looks forthcoming.
Silvery Moon looked better than ever in 2012, winning handicaps at Ayr and Doncaster in the summer. Dropped back to last successful mark on return and yard had first and second (dead-heaters) in this last year.
Las Verglas Star was successful in small-field handicap over C&D in September under this rider. Should have come on for his two runs this term and building up to a bigger effort.
Warlu Way wasn't so hot last season for John Dunlop but been given a chance by the handicapper. May need firmer ground and no obvious good record fresh but new yard likely to find key to him.
Licence To Till is a C&D winner who struck twice early last season. On a potentially good mark if raring to go on return.
Lady Loch confirmed promise shown in maidens in handicaps last year, scoring twice with headgear fitted. May have more to offer in 2013. Yard also runs Las Verglas Star.
1. Sirvino
2. Licence To Till
3. Silvery Moon
Sirvino has dropped to a good mark and can make a successful reappearance. Licence To Till is on a potentially good mark on his return, while Silvery Moon could feature for Tim Easterby who had the first and second in this last year.
Milesey
GambleAware
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
——————-
Pontefract 15:40
2m 1f 216yrds Class 5 Jamaican Flight Handicap (4yo plus)
LINKABLE 10-1
Trainer B G Powell
Jockey S Sanders
Successful twice at 1m 5f on the all-weather. A winner at 4-1 at Lingfield over 1m 5f on his latest outing last month, beating El Libertador by 1/2l.
Milesey
GOWRAN PARK
RUBY DOUBLE
4.40 URANO
5.45 SECURITY BREACH
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM
PONTEFRACT
2.40 THE WELSH WIZARD
4.45 AYR MISSILE
SOUTHWELL
3.00 HAMOODY
4.35 STENTORIAN (NAP)
AND ONE FOR MR FIXIT …
Southwell 5.05
MUCKY MOLLY
Pontefract 4.15
1. Sirvino
2. Licence To Till
3. Silvery Moon
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
Pontefract 15:40
LINKABLE 10-1
Milesey ( betfair )
GOWRAN PARK
RUBY DOUBLE
4.40 URANO 1.87
5.45 SECURITY BREACH 4.4
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO 1.85
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY 2.92
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM 2.48
PONTEFRACT
2.40 THE WELSH WIZARD 2.14
4.45 AYR MISSILE 3.2
SOUTHWELL
3.00 HAMOODY 2.5
4.35 STENTORIAN (NAP) 2.12
AND ONE FOR MR FIXIT …
Southwell 5.05
MUCKY MOLLY 7.6
Pontefract 4.15
1. Sirvino 7.4
2. Licence To Till 9.4
3. Silvery Moon 13.0
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
Pontefract 3.40
LINKABLE 17.0
Milesey ( betfair )
PLACE and WIN
————-
Pontefract 15:10
6f Class 3 Dalby Stand Handicap (3-yo)
QUEEN AGGIE 25/1
QUEEN AGGIE is just preferred today. She didn’t fare too badly on her comeback run in Listed company at Lingfield and a repeat of her fourth in the Rockingham at York in August would see her go very close.
Successful twice at 6f on good ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 7l behind Teophilip at 20-1 when 10th of 12 on her latest outing at Lingfield over 7f last month.
Milesey ( betfair )
GOWRAN PARK
RUBY DOUBLE
4.40 URANO 1.87
5.45 SECURITY BREACH 4.4
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO 1.85
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY 2.92
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM 2.48
PONTEFRACT
2.40 THE WELSH WIZARD 2.14
4.45 AYR MISSILE 3.2
SOUTHWELL
3.00 HAMOODY 2.5
4.35 STENTORIAN (NAP) 2.12
AND ONE FOR MR FIXIT …
Southwell 5.05
MUCKY MOLLY 7.6
Pontefract 4.15
1. Sirvino 7.4
2. Licence To Till 9.4
3. Silvery Moon 13.0
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
Pontefract 3.40
LINKABLE 17.0
PLACE and WIN
Pontefract 3.10
QUEEN AGGIE 26.0
Milesey ( betfair )
***********************
HOT DOUBLE
***********************
3.20 CARLISLE
SLEEP IN FIRST 2.0
4.10 GOWRAN PARK
MIDNIGHT OIL 2.0
***********************
Milesey
Carlisle Placepot: Tuesday April 9
14:20 – The opening novice chase can quickly be reduced to three, lack of ability essentially ruling out the bottom three on the racecard. Of those left, Dolatulo is clearly the best option, his chasing experience the most extensive in the field and his suitability for the trip assured. At a different course, we might have given more weight to Alta Rock’s chasing experience, but the chances are that the much more able Drill Sergeant will cope with the demands of Carlisle’s soft fences on his chasing debut and therefore he finds his way into the perm.
14:50 – The first of three legs which contain a bare seven runners, and although several are unexposed our choices in this race aren’t too difficult to arrive at, with seemingly harshly-treated handicap debutants like Right To Rule and Somerset Island not really Placepot types. Although we’re nominating Takaatuf first, he isn’t necessarily our first choice, his inclusion based on the idea that this stiff 17 furlongs on better ground will bring out the best in him. A choice between Yorkist and Mojolika, second and first respectively over C&D last time, presents itself for our other spot, with the fact that Mojolika rather overcame the run of things that day, coupled with the idea that Takaatuf may not allow Yorkist his own way up front this time, leading us to land on Mojolika.
15:20 – It says plenty about leg three that Sleep In First, winner of a couple of pretty wretched races on his last two starts and now a stone higher in the weight than for the first of those successes, is only around the 1.7 mark. We could try and second-guess some of his rivals, but no clues are immediately forthcoming and it’s much easier, and cheaper, just to bank on the in-form favourite.
15:50 – Despite a fairly big field, it looks as though there won’t be much pace in this race (a view backed up by Timeform’s In-Play Hints), something which could play into the hands of Nicene Creed, who was ridden prominently when landing a gamble last time. He’s still very well handicapped on his best and has shown himself able to back up good runs in the past, so he’s a sure thing for our perm. It’s a case of hope rather than projection that Polarbrook will be ridden with sufficient enterprise, but the impression left last time (on his first start for Donald McCain, having left Kim Bailey) was so strong that we can overlook the vastly different trip unknown in terms of tactics.
16:25 – The final seven-runner affair in the ‘Pot’ (assuming we have no non-runners in the last between the time of writing and 16:55), but more significant here is that five of the seven have either a squiggle or an ‘x’ attached to their master rating. Super Ally is one of the exceptions, and although his jumping isn’t exactly the most assured he’s generally consistent and put in one of his better rounds over Carlisle’s fences back in November, so he’s worthy of a place. We could include both Lord Villez and Etxalar to pretty much guarantee passage to the last leg, but that might get expensive so we’ll turf out Etxalar, who is shorter in the betting despite looking a bit vulnerable raised 11 lb for his C&D win last time.
16:55 – William Money is another case of a horse that is ordinary value in the win market, but is so because he’s been solid of late and therefore he’s worthy of inclusion in our perm irrespective of the fact he’ll carry more of the pool than he’ll deserve to. Second selection, Foot The Bill, has been placed on three of his four starts this season; he looked to be outpaced over something similar to this trip on his reappearance, though that was at Market Rasen and this stiffer track should be more suitable.
Selections:
14:20 – 2, 3
14:50 – 4, 6
15:20 – 4
15:50 – 1, 10
16:25 – 1, 4
16:55 – 3, 7
= 32 lines
Milesey ( betfair )
Is Big jock taking the saddle on Queen Aggie at Pontefract 15:10,may be worth a punt!!!!
***** Sunrisers Hyderabad score 161 ******
Milesey
IPL CRICKET
————
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Royal Challengers Bangalore
In past IPLs, the narrative regarding Bangalore usually involved explosive batsmen hitting huge totals, tempered by a weak bowling attack that struggled to defend them. In their two matches so far, the situation has been reversed. On neither occasion did their total seem anywhere near enough, yet the bowlers fought hard to take both matches to the wire. That improvement from the bowlers should be seen as a positive because, whether they all do it on the same day or not, a line-up of Gayle, Dilshan, Kohli and, from now, AB De Villiers, will invariably deliver.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Despite being written off as rank outsiders, even now, at 17.5 in the outright market, Sunrisers are riding high with two wins from two matches. Serious doubts about their batting depth have not been resolved but Thisara Perera is a superb all-round addition. If Dale Steyn, Ishant Sharma and Amit Mishra can retain their potency with the ball, they could continue to surprise and challenge for the play-offs.
First Innings Runs
Surprisingly after eight matches, only two sides have reached 150. As that mark has been odds-on every single time, there is a temptation to conclude the market is over-estimating runs. That may prove the case over the course of the competition, but there will still be plenty of big totals and this game looks ideal. In the last nine matches at the M A Chinnaswamy Stadium, last week’s 156 against Mumbai was the lowest, with 180 bettered four times during that period. If Bangalore bat first I’ll be happy to take anything above 2.0 on 160+ and 4.5 on 180+. If Sunrisers bat first, take ten runs off those targets to take account of their weaker batting.
Match odds
Given that Sunday’s match was tied and the fact Hyderabad have twice upset the odds so far, there is a clear case for backing the outsider here, at least as a trading vehicle, with a view towards laying back for profit if their odds shorten. Nevertheless, with home advantage on a pitch that seems to always yield big totals, Bangalore’s all-star batting line-up have to be the tip, if not an especially confident bet at just 1.54.
Top Bangalore batsman
I expect at least one top-order Bangalore batsman to make a big total on their home ground, which would probably amount to a four-man contest if De Villiers plays. Gayle and Kohli have top-scored once each so perhaps today will be the turn of Tillakaratne Dilshan to shine at odds of 5.1. The Sri Lankan opener is under pressure after two failures, but he was in perfectly good form two weeks ago against Bangladesh so should come good at some point. These are big odds for a high-class opener.
Top Hyderabad batsman
The two best Hyderabad batsman have failed to top-score in either match so far, but in the absence of their star opener Shikhar Darwan, it is hard to look beyond Kumar Sangakkara and Cameron White. They seem the only two liable to score a very big innings, which will be required from somebody at this ground. I’ll take Sangakkara at 4.0.
Recommended bet
Back Bangalore to score over 160 runs or Sunrisers over 150 runs, depending who bats first
IPL CRICKET
————
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Royal Challengers Bangalore
In past IPLs, the narrative regarding Bangalore usually involved explosive batsmen hitting huge totals, tempered by a weak bowling attack that struggled to defend them. In their two matches so far, the situation has been reversed. On neither occasion did their total seem anywhere near enough, yet the bowlers fought hard to take both matches to the wire. That improvement from the bowlers should be seen as a positive because, whether they all do it on the same day or not, a line-up of Gayle, Dilshan, Kohli and, from now, AB De Villiers, will invariably deliver.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Despite being written off as rank outsiders, even now, at 17.5 in the outright market, Sunrisers are riding high with two wins from two matches. Serious doubts about their batting depth have not been resolved but Thisara Perera is a superb all-round addition. If Dale Steyn, Ishant Sharma and Amit Mishra can retain their potency with the ball, they could continue to surprise and challenge for the play-offs.
First Innings Runs
Surprisingly after eight matches, only two sides have reached 150. As that mark has been odds-on every single time, there is a temptation to conclude the market is over-estimating runs. That may prove the case over the course of the competition, but there will still be plenty of big totals and this game looks ideal. In the last nine matches at the M A Chinnaswamy Stadium, last week’s 156 against Mumbai was the lowest, with 180 bettered four times during that period. If Bangalore bat first I’ll be happy to take anything above 2.0 on 160+ and 4.5 on 180+. If Sunrisers bat first, take ten runs off those targets to take account of their weaker batting.
Match odds
Given that Sunday’s match was tied and the fact Hyderabad have twice upset the odds so far, there is a clear case for backing the outsider here, at least as a trading vehicle, with a view towards laying back for profit if their odds shorten. Nevertheless, with home advantage on a pitch that seems to always yield big totals, Bangalore’s all-star batting line-up have to be the tip, if not an especially confident bet at just 1.54.
Top Bangalore batsman
I expect at least one top-order Bangalore batsman to make a big total on their home ground, which would probably amount to a four-man contest if De Villiers plays. Gayle and Kohli have top-scored once each so perhaps today will be the turn of Tillakaratne Dilshan to shine at odds of 5.1. The Sri Lankan opener is under pressure after two failures, but he was in perfectly good form two weeks ago against Bangladesh so should come good at some point. These are big odds for a high-class opener.
Top Hyderabad batsman
The two best Hyderabad batsman have failed to top-score in either match so far, but in the absence of their star opener Shikhar Darwan, it is hard to look beyond Kumar Sangakkara and Cameron White. They seem the only two liable to score a very big innings, which will be required from somebody at this ground. I’ll take Sangakkara at 4.0.
Recommended bet
Back Bangalore to score over 160 runs or Sunrisers over 150 runs, depending who bats first
—————————————–
Mumbai Indians v Delhi Daredevils
Start time: 15.30BST
TV: live on ITV4
Mumbai
Ricky Ponting and the Indians have found their feet after recovering from an opening defeat to beat Chennai Super Kings in Chennai. Ponting held his nerve in the field for a narrow nine-run win. It was Kieron Pollard, however, who was the star of the show as he thumped 57 from 38 balls in an otherwise tepid Mumbai batting show. Pollard also took a wicket. Munaf Patel, the pacer who has a reputation for blowing hot and cold, was superb with three victims. Mumbai have not needed Lasith Malinga yet and the only possible slot for him is if Dwayne Smith or Mitchell Johnson makes way.
Delhi Daredevils
Delhi have zip to show from two matches. They have slumped to defeat against Rajasthan Royals and Kolkata Knight Riders. They need a boost of some sort and they might just get it if Virender Sehwag returns from an ankle injury. Unmukt Chand, a rising star for India, may miss out. Morne Morkel, who has been playing in the South Africa domestic T20 final for the beaten Titans, is unlikely to feature.
First-innings runs
Here are the totals from IPL 2012 at the Wankhede Stadium: 129-197-92-163-100-173-141-140. That is an average of 142. However, those figures are such a mixed bag it is difficult to bet with confidence on this market and it may be best left alone. By the way, the total of 92 you see in that selection was Mumbai’s score against Delhi in defeat in last season’s group stages.
Match odds
It has not taken long for the match odds market to lose faith in Delhi, the kings of underachievement. They are 2.26 for this one with Mumbai 1.71. The question one will probably ask before plunging on the Dardevils is this: are they bad enough to lose three-in-a-row? Of course not. Indeed it is a rarity for such a powerful-looking franchise to embark on such a horror run in this tournament. But perhaps we should be asking ourselves this: are they bad enough to not even trade as favourites for a spell? Of course not. A back-to-lay therefore is the safest trade. What we need to see from Delhi is more steel with the bat. They have been complacent in both games so far. Against Kolkata Knight Riders they started off well before an inexplicable go-slow. They did the same against Rajasthan. At 82 for one in the 11th over they were cruising to a chase of 166. But they fell away again. Surely they won’t be as careless for a third time?
Top Mumbai batsman
Harbhajan Singh and Ambati Rayudu top scored for Indians last term against Delhi. But it is Pollard, following his brutal knock in Chennai, who will get most support. Sachin Tendulkar has not impressed so far and needs a score.
Top Delhi batsman
Sehwag top-scored twice against Mumbai last season in the group stages (both were comprehensive DD victories) and Sehwag will be well-backed here. Expect odds of around 3.75. Whether he opens the batting or slots in at No 3, a possibility, remains to be seen. Mahela Jayawardene and David Warner have top scored in the two matches so far. Neither man will go off greater than 4.00.
Recommended bet
Back-to-lay Delhi at 2.26 to 1.80
———————————–
Milesey ( betfair )
US Masters Betting: Par Three Contest
It’s live on TV and it’ll make for a pleasant aperitif before the main event , Wednesday’s Par Three Contest here…
The year’s first major is still an agonising couple of days away but for those of us that simply can’t wait for the US Masters to kick off on Thursday; Wednesday’s Par Three Contest should provide some entertainment and maybe even a winning wager…
The event will be screened live on Sky Sports for just the third time and it will make for a pleasant aperitif before the main event itself. Staged at the visually stunning nine-hole par-27 course which winds its way over DeSoto Springs Pond and Ike’s Pond it will make for pleasant viewing but if you are having a bet, don’t go mad! To say it’s a relaxed affair is a sizable understatement, kids caddy for their dads and often even play their shots.
First staged in 1960, it’s a perfect fun competition to take the stress out of the build-up for the year’s first major. Incredibly, no winner of the Par Three Contest has ever gone on to win the main event in the same year, another reason for competitors to take it very easy.
Clues are thin on the ground to say the least but there have been a few multiple winners and that’s just about the only angle in that I can see.
Sandy Lyle and David Toms have both won the event a couple of times and Padraig Harrington, when sharing the title with Jonathan Byrd twelve months ago, was winning it for a third time. A pin applied to this list of past winners could well be the best, and maybe the only, way to go but a wager on Pod might not be a bad plan.
Harrington has now won this three times in ten years and he’s just the sort of character to dismiss the hoodoo as poppycock. I can see him being quite keen to make it four wins in 11 years and he might just be worth a speculative fun bet.
Recommendation: Back Padraig Harrington to win
———————————————–
The Masters Betting: Hole-in-One market
This will be the 77th US Masters and during the first 76 events there have only been 23 aces. At first glance, their scarcity would suggest that the only feasible option is to lay Yes or back No in the Hole-in-one Market but that’s definitely not the case…
In the tournaments entire history, the tough 4th hole has provided just one hole-in-one. Four have been registered at the 6th and there have been just three at the 12th. If there’s going to be one again this time around, it’s highly likely to be at the 16th and it’s also highly likely to be on Sunday. And if recent history is to be believed, we may even get two!
Much excitement has been caused over recent years by the pin-placement on the 16th on Sunday and we’ve seen a rash of hole-in-ones there, nine in the last nine years in fact!
In 2004 Padraig Harrington and Kirk Triplett, playing in consecutive groups, both aced it within ten minutes of each other. Nathan Green and Ryan Moore both found the cup in one three years ago and last year it was the turn of both Bo Van Pelt and Adam Scott.
As detailed here, there have been very slight alterations to the 16th green ahead of this year’s renewal but it shouldn’t make any difference and given the extra spice putting the flag on the flat spot below the slope provides, I see no reason whatsoever for the organisers to change tact this Sunday.
It’s all about getting Yes onside on day four – how it’s done is all down to personal choice. If you wanted to be clever, you could lay Yes before the tournament begins and then back it back after round three (provided there hasn’t already been one of course!) or you could take less of a risk and just back Yes before Sunday and forget about laying it first. I don’t see any value in backing Yes before Sunday though, as the chances of there being one before then are very slim indeed.
The price should drift as the event progresses and yet, if there is to be one, the odds are stacked in favour of it happening on Sunday.
Recommendation: Back Yes @ 2.0 or better
Milesey ( betfair )
US Masters: The simpleton’s guide to having an Augusta bet
Most punters will be chasing massive odds with a bet in the winner market but there are plenty of ways of making a profit from the 2013 Masters……………..
In just a few days the world will fall quickly and strongly in love with golf when the year’s first major gets under way in the ludicrously photogenic setting of Augusta.
As the only major that is always played at the same venue our Masters memories are perhaps stronger than the other three – The Open, US Open, USPGA. The cast changes but the setting remains the same year after year.
A bet on the Masters is a must for even the most part-time of sports fans. At the odds, every player – yes, even Tiger – would bring tasty returns and with each-way bets paying down to fifth place in the winner market there’s every chance of getting some money back when it’s all over.
Of course, there are a massive array of markets on Betfair and it’s not just about finding the tournament winner. There are countless ways of making a profit, but with so many to pick from how do you make your selections? Here’s a run through a handful of betting options ahead of the big tee-off on Thursday…
A patriotic punt
British, or perhaps more specifically, English golf has been one of the least heralded sporting success stories of the last few years. In Luke Donald and Justin Rose, England boast two of the top four ranked players in the world, while Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter are both in the top 20. All four have Augusta form. Poulter has been top 10 two of the last three years; Westwood was third last year and second in 2010; Donald finished fourth in 2011; Rose was eighth last year and has gone top five before (2007). At 17.0 to back in the fixed odds, the Betfair market likes Rose’s chances best with Donald a couple of ticks off at 31.0. Westwood trades at the same price while Poulter can be backed at 46.0. Of the four Westwood has been playing the most golf and looks to be coming on well. The course suits his powerful, accurate long game and while he will undoubtedly miss a few tiddlers he won’t be the only one to do so. An each-way bet on Westwood looks the sensible play.
An American most people have never heard of
Most golf fans will know about Matt Kuchar and Hunter Mahan but they hardly resonate beyond the confines of the sport. Nevertheless, they could be among the wiser bets you strike this week. The home challenge looks especially strong this year and these two are likely contenders over the four days at Augusta. Both are class performers and regular tournament winners – Kuchar defeating Mahan in the final of the high-profile WGC Match Play this year. Tougher courses tend to suit these two and Augusta is just that. Kuchar’s third last year shows an aptitude for the Georgia masterpiece, while Mahan has finished top 10 two times in the last four years and 12th in 2012. Playing it safe, Top 10 bets on either look sensible – Kuchar trades around 4.0 while Mahan is a tick bigger @ 5.0.
A decent run for your money
This has been a quietly impressive season for Peter Hanson who could just serve up an Augusta treat at big odds. This Ryder Cupper has produced top 10 finishes in the US and the Middle East, missing just one cut this season. Third last time out it wouldn’t surprise to see this hugely consistent golfer go close once more. Hanson is 100.0 to win on the exchange, 61.0 on fixed odds, but the best way to profit from this steady Swede may be a back at 8.0 to finish as Top Continental European.
Do the obvious
Let’s face it, the best bet is a winning bet and Tiger’s the one you want to be on. With three tournament wins to his name this year the great man is back on his best form and 5.4 is a bigger price than he would have been in his pomp. Four Green Jackets are in the cupboard chez Woods – they’ve probably taken his measurements already haven’t they?
Recommended Bets
Back Lee Westwood each-way @ 31.0
Back Matt Kuchar @ 3.9 to finish Top 10
Back Hunter Mahan @ 5.0 to finish Top 10
Back Peter Hanson @ 8.0 to finish as Top Continental European
Back Tiger Woods @ 5.4
Milesey ( betfair )
US MASTERS GOLF
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Tournament History
The event was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had originally wanted to stage the US Open at Augusta. The oppressive Georgia summers meant a tournament in June was always going to be out of the question and when the USGA refused to move the US Open to April, Jones decided to hold his own tournament and the US Masters was born.
It started life as the Augusta National Invitation Tournament – a name that was to be changed five years after the first staging in 1934. This will be the 77th staging of the US Masters.
Venue
Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
Course Details
Par 72, 7435 yards, stroke average in 2012 – 72.4
The brainchild of Rees Jones, Augusta National was founded by him and Clifford Roberts, a wealthy New York investment banker. Designed by Jones and Alister Mackenzie, Augusta National was built on the site of an old tree nursery and it officially opened in January 1933. It’s now considered a national treasure and it’s unquestionably one of the finest courses in the world and for me, it’s the most beautiful.
Last year the opening hole ranked the hardest but the three holes around the turn, 9, 10 and 11, ranked 2nd toughest and joint 4th hardest – with the 9th averaging 4.15 and the other two 4.13.
The most famous stretch of holes begins at the 11th and extends through to the 13th, otherwise known as Amen Corner. After the ultra tough par 4 11th hole, the par 3 12th is only 155 yards long but with water short and no easy second shot from long of the green; this intimidating little hole always causes problems.
Once through 12 the players can relax a bit. The par 5 13th, measuring just 510 yards, is a genuine birdie/eagle chance and last year it was the second easiest hole on the course and there are real birdie opportunities all the way to the tough 17th. The finishing hole is always tricky and last year it ranked as the 3rd hardest.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and 6.00pm Sunday.
Live on BBC 2 over the weekend – 7.30pm on Saturday and 6.30pm on Sunday
Last Ten Winners
2012 – Bubba Watson -10 (playoff)
2011 – Charl Schwartzel -14
2010 – Phil Mickelson -16
2009 – Angel Cabrera -12 (playoff)
2008 – Trevor Immelman -8
2007 – Zach Johnson +1
2006 – Phil Mickelson -7
2005 – Tiger Woods -12 (playoff)
2004 – Phil Mickelson -9
2003 – Mike Weir -7 (playoff)
What will it take to win the US Masters?
With a number of right to left doglegs, an ability to shape tee-shots from right to left is a distinct advantage – something Tiger Woods struggles with.
Driving it long is a big plus too – last year’s playoff protagonists ranked 4th and 2nd for Driving Distance but bombing it’s absolutely crucial. Charl Schwartzel only ranked 44th for Driving Distance two years ago and the 2007 champ, Zach Johnson was ranked 57th for DD. How you play the long holes is still key though. Schwartzel and Johnson may not have bombed it off the tee but they still ranked in the top-10 for Par 5 Performance and almost every year, playing the par fives well has been the key to success.
When Phil Mickelson won the second of his three US Masters titles, he played the short holes in six over par and the par fives in -13, and when Zach wedged his way to victory a year later, he was -11 on the long holes and +12 on the short ones. Scoring on the par fives is most certainly the way to win.
With trees everywhere, it looks like a tight track when you’re watching on TV but that’s not the case, there’s actually quite a bit of space off the tee and driving accuracy isn’t that important. Accurate iron-play is though – finding the correct part of the greens will set up birdie opportunities.
Missing greens is inevitable though so first-rate scrambling is also required but the most important skill-set by a long way is putting. The sloping greens are lightning-fast and you don’t get to usually get to don a Green Jacket unless you putt brilliantly for four days. Bubba Watson ranked just 37th for putting last year but he’s the exception to the rule.
Some more possible angles in to consider
Defending champions have a poor record. Only true legends of the game, Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have managed to win back-to-back Green Jackets but to expand on that further, looking at recent results, a high finish the previous year could also be a handicap.
Memorably, eight players hit the front on day four in 2011 and none of those eight, despite many of them being quite well fancied, featured at all last year. Adam Scott, runner-up in 2011 finished tied for 8th last year and he was the only player from the top-ten home in 2011 to remotely figure twelve months ago.
To expand even further, in the last five years, Scott (the last two years), Hunter Mahan (8th in 2010 and 10th in 2009), Padraig Harrington (5th in 2008 after 7th in 2007) and Steve Flesch (6th in 2009 and 5th in 2008) have back-to-back top-tens at Augusta but only Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods have achieved the feat on more than one occasion.
It could just be a coincidence or there could be something in it. I think the latter and I’ve tempered my enthusiasm about one or two.
Logic would have us think that if ‘player x’ played well at the venue last year then he’ll feel good about his chances this time around but that expectation may be a handicap. Could players that figure one year, expect too much of themselves, and therefore heap too much pressure on themselves the following year?
Is there an identikit winner?
Watson had been in solid form prior to last year’s renewal but the previous five winners have all come into the event under the radar so if you fancy someone who isn’t in scintillating form don’t worry about it, and if they’re a huge price that’s all the better – four of the last six winners have started the week at a triple-figure price.
Course form is very important. Other than the first two winners of the event, Fuzzy Zoeller (in 1979) is still the only debutant to win and most winners have been round Augusta National enough times to get to know it’s unique nuisances. On average, first time winners have played the event six times and the average age of the winner here is 32.66 years.
Quirky stats to bear in mind
Every winner, apart from Tiger Woods in 1996, stretching all the way back to Fuzzy Zoeller’s debut win in 1979, had made the cut here the year before they won.
Although you need plenty of experience, it’s now 15 years since anyone in their 40’s won at Augusta – a bad omen for Phil Mickelson maybe.
You need to have previously shot a round in the 60s here – 20 of the last 21 winners had all previously shot a sub-70 around Augusta National.
In-Play Tactics
Augusta National is NOT a catch-up course and a fast start is imperative. Mistakes will always happen and you need a good start. A cushion if you like. The first four names on the day one leaderboard last year were Lee Westwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Peter Hanson and Bubba Watson and they filed four of the first six places at the finish. Mickelson, who opened with a disastrous 74 and Matt Kuchar, who shot 71 on day one, were the other two in the top-six.
Tiger and Phil repeatedly buck the trends at Augusta and they’re the only two men to win the event having finished day one outside of the top-ten since Mark O’Meara won from tied 25th and five off the pace in 1998. Unless you’re names Woods or Mickelson, get a fast start or forget it.
Schwartzel’s win two years ago is unusual in two respects. The fact that he was able to win after just one previous appearance was against the grain and the fact that he was as far as tied 12th and fully six shots back at halfway was even more extraordinary.
Tied 7th and four off the pace after round one, he slipped down the field in round two and he’s the only winner stretching back to O’Meara again, and this time including Woods and Lefty, to be outside of the top-five at halfway. I can’t stress it enough, winners simply don’t come from off the pace here.
There’s a saying in golf that events only really start on the back-nine on Sunday and if the last two years are anything to go by then that’s certainly the case here. Once through the tricky 12th birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole at Augusta – the 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible.
Schwartzel became the first man in history to birdie the last four holes to win and Bubba also birdied four in-a-row on the back-nine last years – holes 13-16. You may need to be hard on the pace but you don’t necessarily need to be right in front with so many opportunities late on.
Market Leaders
I’ve written about Tigers chances here over the weekend and I touched on Rory McIlroy’s game in last week’s De-Brief.
Tiger is drifting to a much more attractive price now but I still have enough reservations to turn my nose up at anything below 6.0 and I still have my doubts about Rory.
He didn’t putt brilliantly last week in Texas and although he finished runner-up, I still felt his game wasn’t at its best. I’m not for a second saying he can’t win but he’s still learning all about Augusta and in four attempts to date he’s not bettered 15th. Among all the little niggles I have about his game itself, there’s also the mental scaring to overcome.
His collapse here two years ago was monumental and I can’t for a second believe he drives up Magnolia Lane without at least a tinge of fear in his heart. He’ll win here, and he’ll do so more than once but whether he’s quite ready and whether he’s a big enough price to risk this time around, I have my doubts.
Selections
When you’ve trawled through the stats as much as I have you can find negatives, and sizable ones too, about everyone, and I have to confess, I can’t say I’m overflowing with confidence about any of my five picks but here they are…
Phil Mickelson
Nobody has ever won the Masters having made a triple-bogey, yet Lefty very nearly pulled it off having made two last year! Add to that his very poor start in 2011 and it’s quite incredible how close he came to winning – he missed out on the playoff by just two strokes. Nobody prepares for, or plays, Augusta National better than Lefty and although the years are ticking by, I still think he has at least one more victory in him and I simply couldn’t leave him out.
Matt Kuchar
Off all of my picks, Kuchar, a Georgia resident, represents the best value. Having won the U.S Amateur in 1997, as a fresh-faced 19 year-old, he finished top amateur and in 21st place in 1998 – which until last year’s tied third, was his best effort here.
His career had been something of a slow burner but in the last 12 months the flames have ignited and following third here, he went on to win The Players Championship a month later and early this year he won his first World Golf Championship event, at the Accenture World Match Play. At 34, the consistent Kuch looks just the right age to bag a major and the only negatives I can see is his high finish last year (see above) and his lack of length off the tee but he’s in fine form and he’s a fair price.
Luke Donald
Although I’ve been monitoring this market for months, I’ve only today added Luke Donald. He was a pick last year at just 18.0 when he was coming here as world number one and off the back of a 4th placed finish in 2011.
He is a tremendous putter, brilliant scrambler and he arrives this time around under the radar. He’s more than twice the price he was last year and I felt he was worth risking at 44.0.
Bubba Watson
I should have backed Bubba last year and I’m still moaning about it! It’s a massive ask for him to defend but at odds of 46.0 (he’s shortened a little since the weekend) I thought he was worth chancing. He has absolutely the right game for Augusta and I can easily see him contending again.
K.J Choi
I had the tiniest of bets on K.J at handsome odds over the weekend, as he moved into contention in Texas. He ranked inside the top-ten for putting and scrambling last week and although he’s getting a bit long in the tooth, he adores Augusta and might just come out fighting again.
Most punters will be chasing massive odds with a bet in the winner market but there are plenty of ways of making a profit from the 2013 Masters…
In just a few days the world will fall quickly and strongly in love with golf when the year’s first major gets under way in the ludicrously photogenic setting of Augusta.
As the only major that is always played at the same venue our Masters memories are perhaps stronger than the other three – The Open, US Open, USPGA. The cast changes but the setting remains the same year after year.
A bet on the Masters is a must for even the most part-time of sports fans. At the odds, every player – yes, even Tiger – would bring tasty returns and with each-way bets paying down to fifth place in the winner market there’s every chance of getting some money back when it’s all over.
Of course, there are a massive array of markets on Betfair and it’s not just about finding the tournament winner. There are countless ways of making a profit, but with so many to pick from how do you make your selections? Here’s a run through a handful of betting options ahead of the big tee-off on Thursday…
A patriotic punt
British, or perhaps more specifically, English golf has been one of the least heralded sporting success stories of the last few years. In Luke Donald and Justin Rose, England boast two of the top four ranked players in the world, while Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter are both in the top 20. All four have Augusta form. Poulter has been top 10 two of the last three years; Westwood was third last year and second in 2010; Donald finished fourth in 2011; Rose was eighth last year and has gone top five before (2007). At 17.0 to back in the fixed odds, the Betfair market likes Rose’s chances best with Donald a couple of ticks off at 31.0. Westwood trades at the same price while Poulter can be backed at 46.0. Of the four Westwood has been playing the most golf and looks to be coming on well. The course suits his powerful, accurate long game and while he will undoubtedly miss a few tiddlers he won’t be the only one to do so. An each-way bet on Westwood looks the sensible play.
An American most people have never heard of
Most golf fans will know about Matt Kuchar and Hunter Mahan but they hardly resonate beyond the confines of the sport. Nevertheless, they could be among the wiser bets you strike this week. The home challenge looks especially strong this year and these two are likely contenders over the four days at Augusta. Both are class performers and regular tournament winners – Kuchar defeating Mahan in the final of the high-profile WGC Match Play this year. Tougher courses tend to suit these two and Augusta is just that. Kuchar’s third last year shows an aptitude for the Georgia masterpiece, while Mahan has finished top 10 two times in the last four years and 12th in 2012. Playing it safe, Top 10 bets on either look sensible – Kuchar trades around 4.0 while Mahan is a tick bigger @ 5.0.
A decent run for your money
This has been a quietly impressive season for Peter Hanson who could just serve up an Augusta treat at big odds. This Ryder Cupper has produced top 10 finishes in the US and the Middle East, missing just one cut this season. Third last time out it wouldn’t surprise to see this hugely consistent golfer go close once more. Hanson is 100.0 to win on the exchange, 61.0 on fixed odds, but the best way to profit from this steady Swede may be a back at 8.0 to finish as Top Continental European.
Do the obvious
Let’s face it, the best bet is a winning bet and Tiger’s the one you want to be on. With three tournament wins to his name this year the great man is back on his best form and 5.4 is a bigger price than he would have been in his pomp. Four Green Jackets are in the cupboard chez Woods – they’ve probably taken his measurements already haven’t they?
Recommended Bets
Back Lee Westwood each-way @ 31.0
Back Matt Kuchar @ 3.9 to finish Top 10
Back Hunter Mahan @ 5.0 to finish Top 10
Back Peter Hanson @ 8.0 to finish as Top Continental European
Back Tiger Woods @ 5.4
Back in 1997, at just 21 years, 3 months and 14 days, Tiger Woods became the youngest player to win the US Masters. It was the first of his four wins at Augusta to date and he did it in the most remarkable fashion. Having shot 40 on the front-nine on day one, he went on to win the title by an incredible 12 strokes – the widest margin in the history of the event.
Further Green Jackets were added to the Woods wardrobe in 2001, 2002 and 2005 but since then, he’s drawn a blank.
His followers this week will no doubt all point to the fact that he’s had his well-documented problems both on and off the fairways and that he’s possibly not been at his stratospheric best since 2005. And even though he hasn’t, he’s still finished inside the top-6 in six of the seven years since but we punters are being asked to take no more than 5.0 about him this time around and we have to decide whether that’s value.
It’s a well known fact that Tiger bags nearly all of his wins at the same courses nowadays so let’s take a look at his record at his favourite haunts since that last US Masters title back in 2005.
At his beloved Torrey Pines, including his US Open win with a broken leg, he’s won five times. He’s been successful four times at both Bay Hill and Firestone. He’s added three more wins to his CV at Doral and Sherwood and he’s also picked up a pair of wins at Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial.
I don’t think you can justifiably use the form argument to defend his record over the last seven years at Augusta when you look at his record elsewhere over the same period. He has a great record at Augusta but it’s not fantastic when compared to his record at the tracks mentioned above.
It’s harder to dismiss his chances on current form, given he’s won three of his last four stroke play events (at Torrey Pines, Doral and Bay Hill) and given that on each of those three occasions nobody putted better than him but there are niggles about the rest of his game.
He ranked 72nd for Driving Accuracy when he won at Bay Hill last time out, he’s only once ranked inside the top-ten for Greens in Regulation this year, at Doral, and he’s ranked outside the top-20 for Scrambling every week. All signs that, putting aside, his game isn’t quite at its peerless best.
I may well be playing the devil’s advocate role a bit here but if you’re about to pile in on anyone to win a major at less than 5.00, a cautionary tap on the shoulder never does any harm. He’s the best we’ve ever seen, he’s in fair form and his record at Augusta in recent years is decent.
Is he a value bet at around 4.8 to win the US Masters? I don’t think he is.
Now that Tiger Woods has returned to something approaching his former glories ahead of the US Masters, everyone knows who the best American golfer is again. Three wins from just five starts on the PGA Tour and the transatlantic snaffling of the World No.1 ranking from Rory McIlroy have made such a conclusion academic.
However, it’s a season where US golfers have swept the board stateside with 14 victories from as many events. Where was such steely individual determination to finish off the job in the Ryder Cup Singles, you might ask? Well, whatever they’ve put in the water supply recently, the stars in the stripes are cleaning up this term. So if Tiger’s the leader of the pack, who’s the second best?
Let’s have a look at the likely lads as they bid to extend the streak in Texas, Augusta and beyond.
Brandt Snedeker (current Masters odds 38.0): officially the hottest player on the planet before Tiger’s reawakening. Unfortunately for Sneds, Woods’ renaissance more or less coincided with his own rib injury, which put him on the sidelines for a month. Since his return, the man who recorded two victories and four other top-three finishes in his last nine official events has struggled to make an impact with consecutive missed cuts. Last year’s Fedex Cup winner putts like a man possessed when he’s in the groove, though, and has some form at Augusta, where his silky smooth stroke is regularly rewarded on linoleum-like surfaces. Long term, however, the suspicion resides that his ball-striking is a rung short of the top tier.
Phil Mickelson (current Masters odds 13.5): doomed to play Salieri to Tiger’s Mozart among the modern generation. Still, you shouldn’t feel too sorry for Phil, who has also turned prolific tournament-winning into multiple majors. Four in the latter category and 41 in the former, Lefty is easily the most accomplished statesider aside from Woods. He has also won in 10 successive seasons (the longest active streak on tour), adding the Phoenix Open to his list of accolades this term. At 43 and fighting arthritis, you could argue that his best days are behind him, but modern equipment and treatment techniques gives Mickelson a shot every week he tees it up. Augusta, where the thrice-jacketed Phil has an even better record than Woods, remains his most likely stomping ground.
Dustin Johnson (current Masters odds 38.0): a younger statesman who issued a timely reminder of his talents when lifting the season-opener in Maui. Since then, DJ has blown hot and cold, but appeared to be peaking again in Houston where he closed with a Sunday best 65. And it would’ve been even lower but for him flushing two irons over the flag and into trouble on his back nine. Perhaps the most mercurial talent on tour, his prodigious distance and streaky putter make him unbeatable when the planets align. They do occasionally, but it’s an event closer in frequency to Halley’s Comet than a circle of the sun.
Bubba Watson (current Masters odds 44.0): another possessed of pure power and bullseye putting who can make the game appear ridiculously easy. His signature shot from the pine needles on the 10th made him an instant Augusta National hero but he has not won since. Two top-tens this term have hinted at sleeping giant status, though, and when he’s on he’s always in contention.
Jason Dufner (current Masters odds 85.0): at last a more consistent commodity. But even Dufner’s trademark unflappability (see “Dufnering” for Twitter trending) and bankability have been called in to question recently with two missed cuts this campaign. Before that, however, the Dufman hadn’t finished outside the Top 30 of any event – let alone MC-ed – since last July. He has also become one of the top performers in the majors (halfway leader at the Masters, fourth at the US Open before contending again at both the Open and the PGA). A 12th place at the latest WGC showcased more imperious ball-striking from a player who generally remains on an upward curve. His time is now and it may endure for a while to come.
Matt Kuchar (current Masters odds 38.0): while you’re never quite sure what to expect from most of these major champions-in-waiting, Kuchar comes closer to the dependability of a black labrador. He has the goofy smile to match too. So it’s strange to recall that despite a storied amateur career, Kuch took his time to make an impact on the pro stage, considering trading it in for a desk job. Wins at the Players and the WGC Matchplay, allied to a repeating swing, have since pulled up a chair at golf’s top table and his experience is always an asset when the pressure ramps.
Rickie Fowler (current Masters odds 70.0): perhaps spent too long luxuriating in the shade of the likes of Watson and Webb Simpson, but Rickie is just not the shy retiring type. Finally proved his worth with that breakthrough triumph last season. The harder the course and the conditions the better for this pure ball-striker, who is not afraid to gamble to win. He is also over a niggling back problem, so the year ahead should be a rosy one.
Keegan Bradley (current Masters odds 34.0): is both a recent major and WGC winner with an uncanny knack of making big putts at the right time. However, despite some bombing off the tee, his irons lack the finesse of his finer contemporaries, while his trusty belly putter could soon be rendered obsolete by the powers-that-be. In spite of his early promise, expect Bradley to be lapped in time by peers such as Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan.
Steve Stricker (current Masters odds 75.0): two runner-up berths from four events this season belie a man who is ostensibly winding down his golf career. Strick intends to embrace partial retirement this year, spending more time at home, dropping the kids off at school and becalming a flaring sciatic nerve. Consequently, we will see less of him but the ability to stay fresh and pick his schedule makes him a dangerous floater – albeit one that should be avoided at cramped quotes.
After a sensational few years for European golf it doesn’t come as a huge shock to see the rest of the world ‘fighting back’ somewhat.
Since the turn of the decade, Europeans (or European Tour based players) have won more than half of the 12 Majors played, Team Europe have won back-to-back Ryder Cups, and the likes of Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Luke Donald, and Rory McIlroy have reached the summit of the world golf rankings.
But in the last 12 months – arguably starting with Bubba Watson’s success here at Augusta – there’s been a gradual change in power. It’s now the Americans and South Africans who seem to be dominating, so much so in fact that Paul Krishnamurty questions whether this is the weakest European challenge ever ahead of this week’s US Masters.
Tiger Woods is leading the American revival having regained the number one player in the world slot, though he’s been backed up superbly on the PGA Tour this year with his compatriots winning every single event, while on the European Tour, no less than six different South Africans have already won this season.
So it makes sense then, with no European winning at Augusta this century, to expect the recent trend to continue and stick with the Americans and South Africans. Below are five players who hold outstanding claims to finish in the Top Five come Sunday evening.
Charl Schwartzel – 6.6
It’s difficult to envisage either Schwartzel or Louis Oosthuizen not challenging this week so hopefully I’ve picked the correct one. From a form perspective the selection ticks all the right boxes; in his last four starts on the European Tour alone he’s recorded a win, a second, a third and a fourth, while in his two starts on the PGA Tour (non WGC events) he’s finished third and ninth.
Only a final round 75 knocked Schwartzel down to 16th in his last outing in America, but when you consider that was his worst strokeplay finish in 2013 then you can see why he should give you an excellent run for your money. This likeable South African has a fine Major record too that includes a run of seven consecutive championships without finishing outside the top 18. And of course he donned the Green Jacket here just two years ago. He’s arguably a better player now and can’t fail to go well.
Dustin Johnson – 8.6
This long-hitting American started the season with a win in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions but then withdrew the following week with a bug, and seemingly lost his form completely. But the saying “form is temporary, class is permanent” definitely applies to Johnson as he demonstrated in Houston last time. In fact his final round at Redstone was easily his best ball-striking round of the season, and if he can carry the form of that fourth place finish into Augusta he’ll surely challenge.
The worry is that Johnson has never finished better than T30 at the Masters, but his overall Major record makes impressive reading; five top-10 finishes since 2009 including two top-fives. The long holes should be at his mercy this week, it’s how he plays the shorter holes that will be key to his chances, but if he strikes the ball like he did in Houston then he’ll be bang in contention.
Matt Kuchar – 9.2
It’s incredible to think that Kuchar finished as the leading amateur at Augusta 15 years ago before falling off the golfing planet for the best part of 10 years. But this forever-smiling American has really found his game in the last three or four years which has enabled him to establish himself as one of the most consistent players in the world as well as a huge contender to don a Green Jacket.
Kuchar has recorded four top-10 finishes in Majors since 2010, including a third place finish here last year, so his pedigree for the big tournaments is not in question, a belief confirmed by his WGC Matchplay victory six weeks ago. That victory is Kuchar’s season highlight to date, but he’s made the cut in all eight events that he’s played, and it’s very rare that he doesn’t climb on to the leaderboard at some point during a tournament.
Bo Van Pelt – 22.0
Van Pelt’s form this season is nothing to shout home about, but he’s a player that I believe is suited to Augusta and he might just find an extra gear this week. He ranked fifth in Total Driving in 2012 – a stat that takes into account both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, so if he can rediscover that form off the tee he’ll be a big player. I backed him in each of the last two years here when he finished eighth and 17th, so fingers crossed he can improve slightly on past performances and contend over the weekend.
Richard Sterne – 38.0
The second of my South African selections is a player that I have quite a hunch for this week. Sterne is a fantastic player when on song and currently leads the Race to Dubai standings on the European Tour. He got through a few rounds at the WGC Matchplay six weeks ago before finishing a very respectable tied-12th in the WGC Cadillac Championship. He’s an accurate iron player who can putt well on his day, and the fact that he finished 25th here in 2008 when nowhere near the player he is now has to bode well. He’s a big outsider, but he’s certainly not without a chance.
Milesey ( Betfair )
If you fancy an outsider for the Masters, it might pay to back him now at big odds, then bank some profit if he gets into contention.
Coming off the back of a sixth triple-figure priced winner in the last eight PGA Tour events, there has in theory never been a better time to be backing an outsider to win the season’s first major. The fact that four of the last six Masters winners started in our price range also bodes well.
One of those outsiders was Angel Cabrera in 2009, and the Argentinian is similarly priced at around 150.0 this time. One should never underestimate the importance of proven course form around this nuanced layout, of which Cabrera can boast plenty. The latest of six top-20s came only two years ago, when trading as favourite during the final round. At 43, age may be against him but I wouldn’t over-react to moderate form figures. Cabrera was never all that consistent and well capable of bouncing back on his favourite tracks. If repeating the long game stats from last time out, when finishing 16th at Redstone, he won’t be too far away.
Making his fourth visit, Fredrik Jacobson has probably gained enough Augusta experience and can build on two top-20s already earned in this major. He hasn’t been far off the pace this year, making his last five top-25s including third place at Riviera, and looks well suited to the course. Jacobson’s brilliance on and around these infamous greens should be a significant asset.
Finally despite his current poor run, I must persevere with one of my pre-season players to follow at 300.0. I remain convinced that Ryan Moore retains the potential for substantial improvement and, last autumn, he seemed on the verge of a breakthrough. Only six starts ago, he was fourth at the Phoenix Open, shooting nothing worse than 66. Perhaps Augusta, where he’s made all four cuts, twice finishing top-15, will spark a revival.
The trading advice is to stake five units in total, then place lay orders on each man at 10.0 and 3.0. If one hits the first target, we’ll at least quadruple our money.
Recommended Bets
2u Angel Cabrera @ 150.0
2u Fredrik Jacobson @ 150.0
1u Ryan Moore @ 300.0
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 10.0
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.0
Milesey ( betfair )
US Masters Golf Betting Offers – 11th to 14th April 2013
It’s the seasons first major and Tiger Woods’ return to form has knocked Rory McIlroy off the bookies top spot, but will he take the title? We’ve plenty of betting offers for this tournament, most of which revolve around the pre-tournament outright betting markets. Our top choice of promotion comes from BetVictor who are offering up to £50 cashback if Tiger or Rory win.
2013 US Masters – Golf Money Back Offer
If Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy win the 2013 US Masters, BetVictor will refund all losing pre-event Tournament Outright Winner bets up to £/€50 per person/household!
Terms & Conditions:
Applies to all losing PRE-EVENT Outright Tournament Winner market single bets on the 2013 US Masters.
Win singles and the win part of each way single bets only.
The maximum total refund is £/€50 (or currency equivalent) per person or household irrespective of the number of Tournament outright winner market bets placed or the value of these bets.
Applies to all bets placed up to the start of the 2013 US Masters, including bets placed prior to the announcement of this promotion.
Bets placed on the “Live” part of the website and in-running (IR) bets will not qualify.
All other markets apart from the Outright Tournament Winner market are excluded from this Money Back offer.
Should Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy win the 2013 US Masters all accounts will be credited with their cashback within 24 hours of the tournament ending.
An official winner must be declared otherwise this offer will be void.
Multiple bets will not count.
Bets placed using Promo Cash will not qualify – real money bets only will qualify.
Void bets will not qualify.
Offer open to new and existing customers in the following territories only: UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Greece, Israel, Holland and Australia.
Internet, telephone and mobile bets only.
BetVictor reserves the right to amend or withdraw this offer at any point and without notification.
Betvictor’s decision in all matters relating to this offer is final and binding.
Money Back If Woods or McIlroy Win
BETVICTOR
Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are two strong contenders for this tournament. But if you don’t want to back them, get yourself over to BetVictor where you’ll get your money back if either of those players win. Applies to pre-tournament single bets and the maximum refund is £50.
Money Back If Your Player Comes Second To Tiger Woods
CORAL
Back any player other that Tiger Woods and if they come second to Mr Woods, you’ll get your money back as a free bet worth up to £100! Applies to pre-tournament outright winner bets only.
Money Back If Any British/Irish Player Wins
LADBROKES
Place a pre-tournament outright winner bet on the US Masters and if the tournament is won by a British or Irish player, Ladbrokes will refund your losing bets as a free bet worth up to £25.
The list of British and Irish players which can trigger this promotion are: Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell, Paul Lawrie, Padraig Harrington, Jamie Donaldson, Darren Clarke, Alan Dunbar, David Lynn, Ian Woosnam, Sandy Lyle.
US Masters TV Coverage
There’s plenty of coverage on the BBC to make sure you don’t miss any of the action – including on TV, Radio and online. We’ve provided a summary of this coverage below:
•Tuesday 9th April – Review of the 2012 Masters on BBC2 at 14:15 – 15:10.
•Wednesday 10th April – Preview of the 2013 Masters on BBC2 at 23:20 – 00:00.
•Thursday 11th April – Live coverage on BBC Radio 5 at 21:00.
•Friday 12th April – Highlights of the first round on BBC2 at 19:00 – 20:00 followed by live coverage on BBC Radio 5 at 21:00.
•Saturday 13th April – Highlights of the second round on BBC1 at 14:15 – 15:30 or watch via the red button from 09:00 – 10:00. BBC2 will then be hosting live TV coverage of the tournament from 19:30 – 00:00.
•Sunday 14th April – Finally there’s live coverage of the final day on BBC2 at 18:30 – 00:00.
PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS UPDATE
—————————-
THE fixtures for the remaining five weeks of the McCoy’s Premier League Darts have been confirmed.
Following Thursday’s Judgement Night in Brighton, Wes Newton and Gary Anderson have been relegated from the event and will play no further part in the tournament.
The remaining eight players will now play each other once more in the remaining five league nights, with six games being played in Dublin, Birmingham and Newcastle and five taking place in Sheffield and Liverpool.
Following Week 14 in Newcastle, the top four players from the league table will progress to compete in the Play-Offs at The O2 in London on Thursday May 16.
The Week Ten fixtures for the coming Thursday in Sheffield include the top-of-the-table clash between James Wade and Michael van Gerwen, with the 2009 champion also playing Adrian Lewis at the Motorpoint Arena and the Dutch ace also meeting Phil Taylor.
Week 11 at The O2 in Dublin includes two big matches for Dutch star Raymond van Barneveld, who takes on van Gerwen and Taylor, with the reigning champion also meeting Andy Hamilton on the night in Ireland.
Week 12 in Birmingham also features six games, with the all-Stoke clash between Taylor and Lewis opening the night before they return later on to play Whitlock and Thornton respectively.
The penultimate week of league action, in Liverpool on May 2, will see Hamilton meet van Gerwen and Wade, while the left-hander also meets Simon Whitlock, van Barneveld plays Lewis and Taylor meets Thornton in a repeat of their clash last Thursday, which the Scot won.
Newcastle’s Metro Radio Arena will host the decisive league night on May 9, with the six games including Whitlock meeting van Barneveld and Lewis, Thornton playing van Gerwen and van Barneveld and Lewis also meeting Stoke rival Andy Hamilton, while Taylor plays Wade.
McCoy’s Premier League Darts
Week Ten
April 11 – Motorpoint Arena, Sheffield
Robert Thornton v Simon Whitlock
Adrian Lewis v James Wade
Michael van Gerwen v Phil Taylor
Andy Hamilton v Raymond van Barneveld
James Wade v Michael van Gerwen
Week 11
April 18 – The O2, Dublin
Andy Hamilton v Phil Taylor
Raymond van Barneveld v Michael van Gerwen
Robert Thornton v James Wade
Simon Whitlock v Andy Hamilton
Raymond van Barneveld v Phil Taylor
Michael van Gerwen v Adrian Lewis
Week 12
April 25 – The NIA, Birmingham
Phil Taylor v Adrian Lewis
Simon Whitlock v Michael van Gerwen
Robert Thornton v Andy Hamilton
Raymond van Barneveld v James Wade
Phil Taylor v Simon Whitlock
Adrian Lewis v Robert Thornton
Week 13
May 2 – Echo Arena, Liverpool
Michael van Gerwen v Andy Hamilton
James Wade v Simon Whitlock
Robert Thornton v Phil Taylor
Raymond van Barneveld v Adrian Lewis
James Wade v Andy Hamilton
Week 14
May 9 – Metro Radio Arena, Newcastle
Simon Whitlock v Raymond van Barneveld
Michael van Gerwen v Robert Thornton
Andy Hamilton v Adrian Lewis
Phil Taylor v James Wade
Robert Thornton v Raymond van Barneveld
Adrian Lewis v Simon Whitlock
Play-Offs
May 16 – The O2, London
Semi-Finals
Final
Milesey ( betfair )
GOWRAN PARK
RUBY DOUBLE
4.40 URANO 1.87
5.45 SECURITY BREACH 4.4
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO 1.85
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY 2.92
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM 2.48
PONTEFRACT
2.40 THE WELSH WIZARD 2.14
4.45 AYR MISSILE 3.2
SOUTHWELL
3.00 HAMOODY 2.5
4.35 STENTORIAN (NAP) 2.12
AND ONE FOR MR FIXIT …
Southwell 5.05
MUCKY MOLLY 7.6
Pontefract 4.15
1. Sirvino 7.4
2. Licence To Till 9.4
3. Silvery Moon 13.0
***********************
HOT DOUBLE
3.20 CARLISLE
SLEEP IN FIRST 2.0
4.10 GOWRAN PARK
MIDNIGHT OIL 2.0
************************
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
Pontefract 3.40
LINKABLE 17.0
PLACE and WIN
Pontefract 3.10
QUEEN AGGIE 26.0
Milesey ( betfair )
Milesey, golf thread started with the betting offers. Will post some of your words tonight. Just putting up tips then going for a round before tomorrow’s par 3 tournament!
Double today Stentorian and mcconnel southwell. Few horses gambled today are balbriggan carlisle tartan jura southwell marmas and spanish duke ponty good luck with whatever u bet today folks.
In the 5.05 at Southwell … SOFIAS NUMBER ONE @ 4/1 will win .. He’s after his hattrick today and I really think he will get it.
“”SOFIAS NUMBER ONE @ 4/1 will win “”
Held on there at the end to take the WIN, nice shout there AC.
Milesey
Cheers … not having a bad day yourself Milesey
MARKET MOVERS
————–
All the early betting moves ahead of today’s racing at Carlisle, Pontefract, Southwell and Gowran Park
Carlisle
14:20
Dolatulo 1.81 out to 2.1
14:50
Tweedo Paradiso 6.6 in to 5.4
Takaatuf 11.0 in to 8.0
15:20
Sleep In First 1.47 out to 1.75
Auhtentic Act 22.0 in to 17.0
15:50
Nicene Creed 4.65 out to 6.0
Knight Valliant 8.77 out to 11.5
16:25
Etxalar 3.8 out to 5.3
Rebel Swing 8.4 in to 5.2
Lord Villez 8.0 in to 6.6
16:55
William Money 2.9 out to 3.3
Foot The Bill 6.8 in to 5.7
Highrate 12.5 in to 9.8
Pontefract
14:10
Snooky 5.1 in to 4.4
King Of Paradise 29.0 in to 13.5
14:40
Libertarian 3.8 in to 2.28
Elidor 4.6 in to 3.4
The Welsh Wizard 2.04 out to 4.2
15:10
Queen Aggie 24.0 in to 17.0
15:40
Hidden Justice 3.15 out to 4.5
Marmas 19.5 in to 10.5
16:15
Hit The Jackpot 9.4 in to 6.0
Spanish Duke 8.2 in to 6.0
16:45
Macaabra 6.4 in to 4.4
Ayr Missile 3.5 out to 4.0
17:15
Regal Swain 6.4 in to 5.2
Carragold 12.5 in to 9.4
Southwell
14:00
Jaga Time 2.8 out to 3.95
Livia Drusilla 14.5 in to 7.8
14:30
Another Claret 1.6 out to 1.95
Harbour Captain 10.5 in to 5.7
15:30
Pull The Pin 5.6 in to 4.4
Marys Pet 7.2 in to 5.1
Punching 4.0 out to 6.8
Rambo Will 5.2 out to 6.4
16:05
Glenreef 2.22 out to 2.96
Burgyne 3.9 in to 3.05
16:35
Annas Arch 5.5 in to 4.2
Tartan Jura 8.6 in to 5.5
Phoenix Flight 7.2 out to 14.5
17:05
Silly Billy 6.4 in to 3.9
Gowran Park
16:10
Midnight Oil 1.96 in to 1.79
17:45
Authinger 15.65 in to 11.0
19:15
Ebazziyr 8.0 in to 4.4
19:45
Very Wood 4.7 in to 4.1
Milesey ( betfair )
***********************
***********************
HOT DOUBLE
3.20 CARLISLE
SLEEP IN FIRST 2.0 ** 1ST **
4.10 GOWRAN PARK
MIDNIGHT OIL 2.0 ** 1ST **
************************
************************
Milesey
miresey did you watch ryan moor win he smashed them he best jokey yes my saying jokey not jockey :) who your top 3 jockeyssss :)
Franny Norton
Tom Queally
Silvestre De Sousa
Milesey
Richard Hughes
Kieren Fallon
In my TOP 5
Milesey
my mistake i mean milesey :)
thanks milesey i think ryan moor richard hughes and i like mikel barzalona do u know when hes back and when is franky detori back thanks
Will FRANKIE be back ? he is now 42, won’t get the top rides now. So who knows, he has to provide another sample this month, before any ban can be lifted, and it was a 6 month ban placed in December 2012.
Milesey
yes agree de sousa and fallon are good and cheers mate
milesey do you think next door will win at pontrafact heard good stuff about it
Yes ” NEXT DOOR ” will win ;) ;)
Milesey
nice milesey and yes but he still good jockey
go on wiliam money AP needed to work for that :)
milesey when will mikel barzarlona be back i like him but no one knows when he in england
***********************
HOT DOUBLE
3.20 CARLISLE
SLEEP IN FIRST 2.0 ** 1ST **
4.10 GOWRAN PARK
MIDNIGHT OIL 2.0 ** 1ST **
************************
Carlisle Placepot: Tuesday April 9
14:20 – The opening novice chase can quickly be reduced to three, lack of ability essentially ruling out the bottom three on the racecard. Of those left, Dolatulo is clearly the best option, his chasing experience the most extensive in the field and his suitability for the trip assured. At a different course, we might have given more weight to Alta Rock’s chasing experience, but the chances are that the much more able Drill Sergeant will cope with the demands of Carlisle’s soft fences on his chasing debut and therefore he finds his way into the perm.
14:50 – The first of three legs which contain a bare seven runners, and although several are unexposed our choices in this race aren’t too difficult to arrive at, with seemingly harshly-treated handicap debutants like Right To Rule and Somerset Island not really Placepot types. Although we’re nominating Takaatuf first, he isn’t necessarily our first choice, his inclusion based on the idea that this stiff 17 furlongs on better ground will bring out the best in him. A choice between Yorkist and Mojolika, second and first respectively over C&D last time, presents itself for our other spot, with the fact that Mojolika rather overcame the run of things that day, coupled with the idea that Takaatuf may not allow Yorkist his own way up front this time, leading us to land on Mojolika.
15:20 – It says plenty about leg three that Sleep In First, winner of a couple of pretty wretched races on his last two starts and now a stone higher in the weight than for the first of those successes, is only around the 1.7 mark. We could try and second-guess some of his rivals, but no clues are immediately forthcoming and it’s much easier, and cheaper, just to bank on the in-form favourite.
15:50 – Despite a fairly big field, it looks as though there won’t be much pace in this race (a view backed up by Timeform’s In-Play Hints), something which could play into the hands of Nicene Creed, who was ridden prominently when landing a gamble last time. He’s still very well handicapped on his best and has shown himself able to back up good runs in the past, so he’s a sure thing for our perm. It’s a case of hope rather than projection that Polarbrook will be ridden with sufficient enterprise, but the impression left last time (on his first start for Donald McCain, having left Kim Bailey) was so strong that we can overlook the vastly different trip unknown in terms of tactics.
16:25 – The final seven-runner affair in the ‘Pot’ (assuming we have no non-runners in the last between the time of writing and 16:55), but more significant here is that five of the seven have either a squiggle or an ‘x’ attached to their master rating. Super Ally is one of the exceptions, and although his jumping isn’t exactly the most assured he’s generally consistent and put in one of his better rounds over Carlisle’s fences back in November, so he’s worthy of a place. We could include both Lord Villez and Etxalar to pretty much guarantee passage to the last leg, but that might get expensive so we’ll turf out Etxalar, who is shorter in the betting despite looking a bit vulnerable raised 11 lb for his C&D win last time.
16:55 – William Money is another case of a horse that is ordinary value in the win market, but is so because he’s been solid of late and therefore he’s worthy of inclusion in our perm irrespective of the fact he’ll carry more of the pool than he’ll deserve to. Second selection, Foot The Bill, has been placed on three of his four starts this season; he looked to be outpaced over something similar to this trip on his reappearance, though that was at Market Rasen and this stiffer track should be more suitable.
Selections:
14:20 – 2, 3
14:50 – 4, 6
15:20 – 4
15:50 – 1, 10
16:25 – 1, 4
16:55 – 3, 7
= 32 lines
RESULTS
14.20 2, 3
14.50 4, 3
15.20 4
15.50 10, 12, 4
16.25 5, 3, 6
16.55 3, 2, 1
Milesey ( betfair )
AND ONE FOR MR FIXIT …
Southwell 5.05
MUCKY MOLLY 7.6 ** 3RD **
Milesey
Milesey, saw it drifting and left it alone this time.
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO 1.85 ** 1ST **
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY 3.7 ** 1ST **
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM 2.48 ** 1ST **
Milesey
How does a placepot work?
How to Bet (and Win) The Placepot
Winning The Placepot
Winning the placepot bet is a great feeling. Not only does the average placepot dividend amount to over £500, and frequently go into the thousands, but the feeling it produces when you ‘have’ it is incredible.
And in that feeling when you ‘have’ it is one of the biggest drawbacks of betting this kind of wager. I’ll explain what I mean in a moment, but for now, let’s quickly recap what the placepot is and how it works.
What is a Placepot?
A placepot is a pool bet operated by the tote, where the player is required to select a placed horse in six consecutive races (usually the first six on the card at any given meeting).
Place positions vary depending on number of runners and type of races, but typically we’re trying to get a horse to finish first, second or third in each of the six races.
As I say, this is a pool bet, which means all of the money wagered is placed into a central betting pool, from which a deduction is made (28%) to cover admin but mostly to put money back into the sport.
The remaining 72% of money in the pool is divided equally between the number of winning players. So, for instance, suppose the pool of money was £100,000, and there were 72 winning tickets.
The dividend (always declared to a £1 unit stake, though players can play multiples of as little as 5p) would be calculated as follows:
£100,000 – 28% /72 (because of the 28% deduction and the fact that we have 72 winners in this example).
In other words, £100,000 – £28,000 / 72 = £72,000 / 72 = £1,000
So the dividend in this case is £1,000. Make sense so far? Good!
Now of course you might only ‘have’ 20p of it, or you might have £12 of it, depending on how you staked your bet.
Alternatively, you might very well have none of it, depending on how you picked horses in your bet!
So that’s what a placepot is: a six leg place wager where you get back a return based on how many of your fellow placepot wagerers also correctly selected six placed horses.
How to pick your horses in a placepot
This is one of two places I think a lot of people make mistakes when betting the placepot. Sometimes people – and I’ve been guilty of this many times myself – try to be too ‘cute’ in their selections.
They might put in the long odds on favourite, and also a 16/1 who they quite like, just in case.
There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but… it is clear that there is far more likelihood of the 2/5 favourite placing than the 16/1 chance. So it must be equally clear that both horses ought to be ‘weighted’ differently in the bet. That people don’t do this is almost certainly THE most common mistake in placepot (and jackpot and scoop6 and exacta and tricast) betting. More on that in a moment.
So, back to how to pick horses for a placepot. Obviously, we’re picking horses that we need to place. This may mean that we actually select horses differently from the one we might pick to win the race.
Many horses have form figures like ’4011816′. In other words, they either win or run nowhere if things don’t go their way. If I was playing a jackpot (I never do, though I love the US Pick 3, a more achievable mini-jackpot), I’d definitely have this horse in the mix.
But in a placepot, I’d think twice, because he’s as likely to finish nowhere as he is to place, and there may be more reliable place wagers.
A good example of this is in the 1.15 race at Cheltenham today (12th November 2010), where Theatrical Moment has form figures of 44116P-
He has two wins to his name, but they were sandwiched in between a number of unplaced performances. (Clearly, there is a lot more to the selection process than that, but these horses take an inappropriate amount of the pool money quite frequently).
The other problem with contrarian views – or trying to beat the odds on favourite out of the frame – is that generally you’ll be wrong. But you don’t want to miss out on the relatively rare occasions that you’re right! So, what to do?
Well, Steven Crist in his excellent book ‘Exotic Betting’, has a solution to this problem. [Exotic bets are what these type of wagers are referred to in the US, and they take FAR more of the money bet than straight win, and place bets.]
Crist suggests you break the horses down in each race, according to how likely you think they are to get the required placing. He talks of dividing them into four categories:
A – horses you feel have a very high chance of being placed
B – horses you feel have a reasonable chance of being placed, and who represent value (i.e. who might be ‘dark’ horses)
C – horses who might just enjoy a revival today based on some element (course, distance, going, jockey, etc) coming in its favour, and who represent value (i.e. who might be ‘dark’ horses)
X – horses who either have no chance, or are terrible value to place at their expected odds, or on whom you have no strong opinion
As you can see, these gradings take into account two elements: your ability to read a race (reflected in terms of what you like) and the market’s relative ability to read a race (reflected in terms of where you see value horses, or under-priced horses)
By breaking each race down like this, you might end up with a chart as per the below. (This example assumes six nine-horse races).
—— A B C X
1 3,4 1,8 2,5,6,7,9
2 1 4,6 2,3,5,7,8,9
3 2,3 9 5,7 1,4,6,8
4 1,3,6,7 2 4,5,8,9
5 8,9 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
6 6 4,7 1,2,3,5,8,9
How to bet your horses in a placepot
The good news is we’ve managed to discard many of the runners in most of the races. The bad news is that if we tried to perm all the runners in our A, B and C lists, we’d still end up with 4 x 3 x 5 x 5 x 2 x 3 = 1800 lines.
Even if we did just 10p per line, that comes to £180 and, more worryingly still, we’d need some luck to get big priced horses hit all place positions in one, and possibly two races at least in order to get back more than the £180 we’d invested.
But, by weighting our opinions according to our perception of the likelihood of those horses making the frame, we can bet the horses in a commensurately weighted fashion.
In other words, if we can’t get at least four of our A horses in the frame, we don’t really deserve to win the bet, because we don’t have a strong enough and / or smart enough opinion of the sextet of contests that form the placepot that day. Besides, getting four out of six on the placepot is easy, right?!
So, if we accept that we should have at least four of our A-team selections come in, then we can write out multiple tickets where we’ll collect if any of the following scenarios occur:
– A in all six races
– A in five races, and a B or C in the other
– A in four races, and B in the other two
This gives us lines that look like this, from our example above:
AAAAAA 2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
ABAAAA 2x2x2x4x2x1 = 64 bets
AABAAA 2x1x1x4x2x1 = 16 bets
AAAAAB 2x1x2x4x2x2 = 64 bets
CAAAAA 2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
AACAAA 2x1x2x4x2x1 = 32 bets
AAACAA 2x1x2x1x2x1 = 8 bets
ABBAAA 2x2x1x4x2x1 = 32 bets
ABAAAB 2x2x2x4x2x2 = 128 bets
AABAAB 2x1x1x4x2x2 = 32 bets
So we now have ten different placepot perms we’re going to strike, and we could stake them differently as well. In this case, for simplicity, we won’t bother to do that.
The total number of lines comes down to just 440, or less than a quarter of the initial number of plays for ‘full coverage’.
We have lots of chances to win and, because it’s a placepot bet where we can get more than one horse placed, we still have lots of chances to double – or even triple – up.
So, our previous 1800 x 10p bet, which would cost us £180, can now be re-struck at a cost of just £44 (440 x 10p), or we could ‘go large’ and play 40p lines for £176 – still four quid cheaper than the initial permutation.
In order to exemplify this further, I am (stupidly) going to attempt this on today’s Cheltenham placepot… Drum roll…
——A ———————— B——————– C———————- X
1- 4,6,9——————- 3,10————————————– 1,2,5,7,8,11,12
2- 2———————— 1,4 —————————————– 3,5,6,7,8
3- 1———————– 4,7 ——————- 2,6—————– 3,5,8,9,11,12
4- 1,5—————————————————————— 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10
5- 11,12,17,21———- 9,18—————————————— THE REST
6- 7,8——————– 3,6—————————————– 1,2,4,5,9,10
Again, we have to get four A’s at least for a score. Just eight tickets this time, as follows:
AAAAAA 3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 48 bets
AABAAA 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AAAAAB 3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 48 bets
CAAAAA 2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 32 bets
ACAAAA 3 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AACAAA 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
AAAACA 3 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 24 bets
AABAAB 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 bets
The total is simply perming all A, B and C selections would be a whopping 5 x 3 x 5 x 2 x 6 x 4 = 3,600 lines. Even for ten pence a line, that’s a scarcely affordable £360 which is a lot of money to recoup even if you ‘have’ the placepot at the end of the day.
Granted it is still not the most affordable of placepot bets even with the ‘four A’s’ rule in play. But at least we’ve managed to massage that figure down to a more palatable (and affordable) 536 lines which, at the aforementioned 10p a turn, is £53.60. That’s just under 15% of our full coverage, and we have very good chances of getting through at least the second and last races
Milesey
***********************
CARLISLE
AP TREBLE
2.20 DOLATULO 1.85 ** 1ST **
4.55 WILLIAM MONEY 3.7 ** 1ST **
5.25 MASTER RAJEEM 2.48 ** 1ST **
***********************
SOUTHWELL
3.00 HAMOODY 3.7 ** 1ST **
***********************
HOT DOUBLE
3.20 CARLISLE
SLEEP IN FIRST 2.0 ** 1ST **
4.10 GOWRAN PARK
MIDNIGHT OIL 2.0 ** 1ST **
************************
Milesey
Did security breach or ayr missile win mate? Need either of them for a treble?
6TH Ayr Missile
7TH Security Breach
Milesey