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Punchestown 5.30, seven runners in the Grade 1 World Series Hurdle
FIVEFORTHREE is a smart hurdler who won this race in 2009. Lightly raced since but proved he retains plenty of ability when third to Medinas in Coral Cup at Cheltenham last time.
Holywell landed the Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and further progress when second to Solwhit at Aintree last time. No obvious reason as to why he should reverse form here.
Reve de Sivola thrived over hurdles this term, revelling in the mud when winning Long Walk at Ascot and Cleeve at Cheltenham. Respectable fourth to Solwhit in World Hurdle at Cheltenham last time.
Solwhit is a high-class hurdler who has looked as good as ever this term, winning World Hurdle at Cheltenham prior to easily following up in Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree last time.
Whatuthink is a smart frontrunner when in the mood as he proved when landing a Grade 2 hurdle at Navan (2½m) in December. Typically in and out since, though, and hard to recommend on back of recent efforts.
Zaidpour is a classy hurdler who beat a strong field in the Hatton's Grace in December. Runner-up all completed starts since, chasing home Dressedtothenines in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse on latest.
Quevega is a high-class mare who landed her fifth consecutive David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. Has won the last 3 renewals of this race and sure to make a bold bid to make it 4 in a row.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. QUEVEGA
2. Solwhit
3. Reve de Sivola
VERDICT: Quevega has won the last three renewals of this race and a bold bid is assured
PUNCHESTOWN DOUBLE
5:30 QUEVEGA 7/4 TOTESPORT
Has won 11 hurdle races from 2m to 3m on ground varying from firm to heavy. Won on her latest outing in a Grade 2 hurdle race when 8-11fav in the Group 2 OLBG Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m 4f (soft) last month, beating Sirene D'ainay by 1 1/2l. Has also won at Punchestown this season.
7.15 UPSIE 1/1 BET365
She has won a hurdle race and two NH flat races from 1m 4f to 2m on ground varying from good to soft – heavy. Won on her latest outing in a maiden hurdle race when 4-7 fav at Naas over 2m (soft – heavy) in February, beating Aerlite Supreme by 4l.
PUNCHESTOWN OUTSIDER
7.45 YOUNG AMBITION 16/1 BETFRED
A winner at 14-1 in a NH flat race at Wexford over 2m 4f (heavy) on her latest outing last month, beating Robina Mai by 2 1/4l.
Beverley 4.05
APACHE GLORY 5/1 BET365
Winner of six races from 1m to 1m 2f on good to firm and good ground and on the all-weather. A winner at 3-1 at Lingfield over 1m 2f on her latest outing earlier this month, beating Bridge That Gap by 1 3/4l.
Beverley 4.35
NINE IRON 7/4 BET365
Successful at 1m 1f and 1m 4f on the all-weather. A winner at 11-4 at Wolverhampton over 1m 4f on his latest outing earlier this month, beating Bain's Pass by 1l. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success.
Lingfield 8.0
TAKE THE LEAD 4/1 BET365
Won on her latest outing when 11-4 fav at Leicester over 6f (soft) in October last year, beating Miss Avonbridge by 3/4l.
Newcastle 8.20
BOXING SHADOWS 6/1 BET365
Successful twice at 5f on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 7-2 jt fav at Wolverhampton over 5f in February, beating Lager Time by a short head.
Wolverhampton 2.55
HAADEETH (Nap) 11/10 PADDYPOWER
Winner of five races from 5f to 6f including 4 wins on polytrack. Won on his latest outing when 9-2 fav at Lingfield over 6f earlier this month, beating Falasteen by 1 1/4l.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Punch (Double) 25th Apr – Quevega/Upsie
Back @ 4.1
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/horse-racing/market?id=1.109169459#id=1.109169459
Milesey
LUCKY 15 for me today:
4:35 Beverley – 9 IRON
5:20 Perth – MATHEW RILEY
5:30 Punchestown – QUEVEGA
7:15 Punchestown – UPSIE
PLACE AND WIN
————–
OUR DIANE in the 20:20 at Newcastle.
This filly finished fourth to Cosmic Chatter at Musselburgh last August. She held every chance two furlongs from home, but found the company to warm and was easily brushed aside. I think she will appreciate the return to handicap company and could go close at a big price.
At present she is trading at 9.6 on the exchange.
Milesey
TODAYS TRIXIE
————–
Few trainers have started the season as well as Richard Fahey and we are hoping that the Malton-based handler can add to his tally with High Office in the 15:35 at Beverley. The seven-year-old High Office is on a bit of a losing run at the minute, but one thing we do know about the gelding is that he is extremely effective fresh, twice winning on his seasonal return and beaten by only a short-head at 33/1 in a competitive York handicap last year. He is obviously a lot shorter in today’s company, though he still rates as a good bet, looking sure to be fully primed and certainly capable of defying a mark of 80.
A useful bumper performer when trained by Kate Walton, Matthew Riley (17:20 Perth) was off the course for nearly two years before reappearing for Phillip Kirby, finishing second on his hurdling bow at Newcastle. Considering the extended absence, it was encouraging to see him back that effort up, returning to the same venue just shy of a month later and this time getting his head in front. Making his handicap debut today, Matthew Riley has a bit to find with some of the main protagonists on the bare from, but he certainly remains open to improvement and it would rank as little surprise were he capable of considerably better over hurdles.
After a couple of disappointing efforts on the all-weather, the David O’Meara-trained Petrol got back on the right track last time, finishing an encouraging second, and he can return to winning ways in the 19:20 at Newcastle. That promising effort over course and distance confirmed the theory that the well-bred Petrol would be effective over middle distances and, still unexposed at this trip, he would appear to have extremely solid claims of winning today.
Back High Office @ 3.85 in the 15:35 at Beverley
Back Matthew Riley @ 3.75 in the 17:20 at Perth
Back Petrol @ 3.65 in the 19:20 at Newcastle
Milesey
( betfair )
Godolphin trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni has been banned from racing for eight years for his part in a doping scandal involving one of the world’s leading racing operations.
The British Horse Racing authority (BHA) has also banned 15 horses trained by the 37-year-old for six months.
Godolphin is run by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
“I apologise to Sheikh Mohammed and all those at Godolphin, and the public who follow racing,” said Al Zarooni.
“I accept it was my responsibility to be aware of rules and regulations around banned substances – I have made a catastrophic error.”
Al Zarooni, 37, gave the steroids ethylestranol and stanozolol, which are prohibited substances, to the horses.
Sheikh Mohammed, who is worth an estimated £10bn, has “locked down” the Moulton Paddock stables where Al Zarooni trained.
Speaking before the ruling, Sheikh Mohammed said he was “appalled and angered” by the news that part of his operation “has violated Godolphin’s ethical standards and the rules of British racing”.
He added. “I have been involved in British horse racing for 30 years and have deep respect for its traditions and rules. There can be no excuse for any deliberate violation.”
Al Zarooni is one of two UK-based trainers – the other is Saeed bin Suroor – for the powerful Godolphin operation.
Since being appointed by Sheikh Mohammed in March 2010, Al Zarooni has trained a host of big-race winners, including 1,000 Guineas victor Blue Bunting in 2011.
Last year he won the St Leger at Doncaster with Encke and the richest race in the world, the Dubai World Cup, with Monterosso.
Milesey
Certify and 14 other horses trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni have been suspended from running for six months by the British Horseracing Authority…
Last year’s star juvenile was one of 11 horses that tested positive for anabolic steroids following a random BHA test at Al Zarooni’s Newmarket stables on April 9.
Al Zarooni admitted administering the drugs in error and named a further four inmates that he had given banned substances to. All the horses, which also include top stayer Opinion Poll, have had their ban backdated to April 9, the date of their first test.
Godolphin owner Sheikh Mohammed has already locked down Al Zarooni’s stables, saying he was “appalled and angered” by events and that testing for all the inmates at Moulton Paddocks was now planned.
Jamie Stier, the BHA’s director of raceday operations and regulation, said: “The BHA has today informed Godolphin, the owners of the horses in question, that the 15 horses known to have been administered with either Ethylestranol or Stanozolol have been suspended from running in races for a period of six months, with effect from Tuesday, April 9, 2013.
“The length of suspension reflects the period beyond which the BHA is confident that the horses in question can have derived no performance related benefit from the administration of these prohibited substances.”
The suspensions will effectively rule all the 15 horses out for most of the campaign with just four and a half weeks left of the season on their return.
Milesey
PERTH PLACEPOT
—————
14:15 – Leg one is, in theory, quite straightforward. Looking On boasts the best form, while all of his seven rivals have one question or another hanging over them, so banking on him looks to be the best option, especially if all eight remain in the race and three places are up for grabs.
14:45 – Leg two must be a candidate for worst race at the Perth festival, so we’re going to include three even though there are four places available as things stand. Tweedo Paradiso and Urban Kode are both fairly self-explanatory suggestions, the former unexposed and likely to have a better opportunity to settle in this big field, while the latter has run well on his last two starts and is a C&D winner from his current mark. Topo Gigio would be a less-obvious choice, and his inclusion does in a way reflect the quality of the race, but it’s been his jumping that’s held him back over fences on his last two starts and there’s nothing wrong with his most recent hurdles outing, when he was a clear second to Coverholder, who would also win his next four.
15:15 – Race three is, in contrast, one of the better races this week. With nine left at the time of writing, it’s quite an inviting race from a Placepot perspective, too. The Musical Guy is a shoo-in for our perm, his recent form the best on offer and his jumping issues, the only real concern, assuaged to some extent by the fact that Perth’s fences are hardly the most fearsome. Exotic Man is more of a risky proposition, his best form over shorter, though he’s a strong-travelling type that has shown himself effective over three miles, so even if he looms up only to falter late on he should sneak into the three.
15:45 – Though plenty of the novices in this handicap field are interesting from a handicapping perspective, there are a couple that stand out for the purposes of a Placepot perm. They are bumper winners Seebright and Until Winning. Seebright is perhaps going to be more of a stayer, though his profile to date is more consistent than the bare figures convey and there’s little reason to think he won’t put up a bold showing from an opening BHA mark of 119. Until Winning came unstuck on heavy ground when making his handicap debut, but he has form (including a defeat of subsequent winner Ballyculla last time) that suggests he can prove better than a 113 horse.
16:15 – Plenty of these arrive in form, but we can pick out a couple with especially strong claims. Firstly there’s Micheal Flips, who got back on track at Ludlow last time and still looks to have room to manoeuvre raised 9 lb for that easy success. Second in is Mac Aeda, who has been consistent all season, finding only a rejuvenated Battle Group too strong in a better race at Aintree last time, and should have no problem with conditions.
16:45 – A staying hunters’ chase to round off, and what’s more we could do with a banker to keep our perm under control. Ideally, pairing Special Portrait and Sotovik would probably guarantee getting us over the line, but the recommendation is to go solo with the second-named. Sotovik’s most recent Rules outing showed him to be at least as good as ever, while his form in points this year suggests he’s retained most of that ability. Throw in his proven aptitude around Perth (four wins) and Sotovik becomes the strongest proposition in this race.
Selections:
14:15 – 1
14:45 – 1, 4, 8
15:15 – 3, 8
15:45 – 2, 5
16:15 – 2, 10
16:45 – 1
= 24 lines
Milesey
( betfair )
Here’s today’s market movers from the meetings at Beverley, Perth, Wolverhampton, and Punchestown…
Beverley
14:05
Tatlisu 3.05 in to 2.48
Dream Vale 3.25 out to 3.85
14:35
Izzy Boy 10.5 in to 7.2
15:05
Shebebi 4.37 in to 2.7
15:35
Fennell Bay 4.6 in to 3.5
Royal Opera 9.2 out to 13.5
16:05
Rockweiller 7.75 in to 5.9
16:35
Ofcoursewecan 10.5 in to 7.4
17:10
Awake My Soul 2.22 in to 1.8
Perth
14:15
Looking On 3.0 in to 1.96
14:45
Urban Kode 9.09 in to 6.6
Kings Chorister 6.0 out to 8.2
Dancing Gizmo 12.0 in to 8.6
Garth Mountain 23.0 in to 13.0
15:15
The Musical Guy 4.3 out to 5.3
Fiddlers Reel 9.0 in to 4.7
16:15
Mac Aeda 5.5 in to 4.2
Rody 6.3 out to 8.6
17:20
Paintball 10.0 in to 7.2
Wolverhampton
14:25
Lady Frances 2.68 in to 1.98
Lilo Lil 2.94 out to 3.75
14:55
Jake The Snake 2.0 out to 2.74
15:25
Laylas Dancer 4.0 out to 5.5
16:30
Exceedexpectations 10.0 in to 7.4
17:00
Delightful Sleep 5.4 in to 3.75
Just Five 13.2 in to 8.2
17:35
Point North 3.3 out to 4.2
Diamondhead 18.5 in to 7.4
Punchestown
15:40
Marito 1.98 out to 2.44
You Must Know Me 10.5 in to 8.2
16:15
Pass The Hat 7.0 in to 5.9
Twinlight 6.1 out to 7.6
16:50
Arabella Boy 7.0 in to 5.2
Big Shu 3.4 out to 5.2
17:30
Quevega 2.6 out to 2.96
Fiveforthree 50.0 in to 29.0
Milesey
SOLWHIT is the tip today.
Really fancy QUEVEGA today
Punchestown 5.30 still not off / Solwhit LATE WITHDRAWAL NR
Bit of luck with Solwhit being a non runner!
PUNCHESTOWN DOUBLE
5:30 QUEVEGA @ 2.5 ** 1ST **
7:15 UPSIE @ 2.08 ** 1ST **
Milesey
Cheers for the Punchestown double Milesey, now onto the darts, Taylor already in need MVG for the double. :-)
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TWO RACES IN FOCUS TODAY
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The Group 2 Mile on Sandown’s (14:45) excellent Friday card…
Libranno looked as good as ever last term, winning 3 times, including Group 2 at Doncaster in Septemeber under Fallon. Could be worth another try at this trip and can’t rule out if rain stays away.
Chil The Kite was much improved last year, bagging 1m handicaps at Doncaster and Ascot before showing smart form to win listed race at Chantilly. Flopped on heavy going final run and not to be underestimated.
Farraaj was smart and progressive as a 2-y-o, winning twice before rounding off with third in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Lightly raced since but looked as good as ever when winning Winter Derby last time.
Highland Knight looked better than ever last year, winning listed race at Pontefract and Group 2 event at Baden-Baden. Shaped as if needing run on recent return and claims if back to best.
Red Duke has often been highly tried, and seemed to appreciate the drop to handicap company when shaping well at Meydan last 2 starts. Likely to prove vulnerable back at this level, though.
Stand My Ground was a useful winner in France and ran well when second on return/debut for this yard in listed race at Doncaster 2 weeks ago. More required at this level but that’s not impossible.
Trumpet Major enjoyed successful 2-y-o campaign, and confirmed himself smart when winning 2 Group 3’s last year. Well below form when last seen but reportedly scoped badly, and big chance if back to his best.
1. Farraaj
2. Trumpet Major
3. Libranno
VERDICT: Not the strongest race for the grade on paper and a good opportunity for Farraaj to add to his Winter Derby success. Richard Hannon’s pair Trumpet Major and Libranno are others to consider.
The feature race at Punchestown (17:30) on Friday, the Rabobank Champion Hurdle…
Hurricane Fly is an outstanding hurdler who has won 12 of his last 13 starts, gaining his second victory in the race when beating Rock On Ruby 2½ lengths in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham on latest.
Midnight Game ran out an easy winner of minor event at Fairyhouse in December and followed up in listed race at Thurles later in month. Ran poorly last time, though, and faces a stiff task in this company.
Mister Benedictine hasn’t always found much for pressure, but better than ever when landing a hat-trick of handicaps earlier this term. However, he is completely out of his depth in this sort of company.
Rebel Fitz looked a hurdler going places when winning 3 times in the summer, including the Galway Hurdle. Not disgraced when runner-up last 2 starts, but he needs to take a marked step forward to land this.
Rock On Ruby is a top-class hurdler who landed the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last term and produced his best effort since when chasing home Hurricane Fly in this year’s renewal.
So Young proved better than ever when readily accounting for Zaidpour in Red Mills Trial at Gowran in February, but has proven vulnerable in this grade and minor honours are the best he can hope for.
Thousand Stars is a versatile and largely consistent performer who wasn’t far off his very best when third to Zarkandar in the Aintree Hurdle last time. Often comes up short at the very top level, though.
1. Hurricane Fly
2. Rock On Ruby
3. Rebel Fitz
VERDICT: Hurricane Fly made history when regaining his Champion Hurdle crown at Cheltenham last month and he is a confident selection to land this race for the fourth successive year. Rock On Ruby chased him home that day and should again prove the biggest danger. Rebel Fitz and Thousand Stars are likely to fight it out for third.
Milesey
( betfair )
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Yet again I committed the cardinal sin in gambling. Was going to cover when Whitlock losing on long odds for low outlay and didn’t.
Think you should have a list of top ten not to do’s Mr F just so we all remember :-)
Does anybody know what the rule4 was in the 5.30 punch?
Rule 4 is an industry-standard deduction that is made on a horse or dog when there is a non-runner in a race after the final declarations for that race have been made and you have taken a fixed price.
For example, if you have £10 win on a horse and take 5/1 (6.0 in decimal odds) and the 2/1 (3.0) favourite then becomes a non-runner, your 5/1 (6.0) is looking very generous.
On markets on the day of a race anyone who backs a non-runner will get their stakes refunded. Those people who backed the 2/1 shot will have their money refunded and therefore Rule 4 exists to make a deduction from your bet on the 5/1 shot. This is because if the 2/1 favourite had not been in the betting for the race when you placed your bet your 5/1 shot may have been, say 3/1.
Rule 4 deductions only occur AFTER the final declarations for a race are made. This is when non-runners mean you get your stake back. Usually, but not always, the final declaration stage is 24 hours before the race. It can be 48 hours before a race.
Rule 4 does not apply to any ante-post market. Ante-post or futures markets are betting on a horse race before the final declarations are known. If you back a non-runner in an ante-post market then you do not get your money back so obviously no Rule 4 is applied to the people who are holding bets on horses that benefit from this non-runner.
The official Tattersalls Rule 4 deductions, as applied by all UK bookies, are as follows:
a) If the current odds of the non-runner are 1/9 or shorter at the time the non-runner withdraws from the race, then 90p in £/E/$ is deducted (or 90% of winnings)
b) If over 2/11 up to and including 2/17, 85% of winnings deducted
c) If over 1/4 up to and including 1/5, 80% of winnings deducted
d) If over 3/10 up to & including 2/5, 70% of winnings deducted
e) If over 2/5 up to and including 8/15, 65% of winnings deducted
f) If over 8/15 up to and including 8/13, 60% of winnings deducted
g) If over 8/13 up to and including 4/5, 55% of winnings deducted
h) If over 4/5 up to and including 20/21, 50% of winnings deducted
i) If over 20/21 up to and including 6/5, 45% of winnings deducted
j) If over 6/5 up to and including 6/4, 40% of winnings deducted
k) If over 6/4 up to and including 7/4, 35% of winnings deducted
l) If over 7/4 up to and including 9/4, 30% of winnings deducted
m) If over 9/4 up to and including 3/1, 25% of winnings deducted
n) If over 3/1 up to and including 4/1, 20% of winnings deducted
o) If over 4/1 up to and including 11/2, 15% of winnings deducted
p) If over 11/2 up to and including 9/1, 10% of winnings deducted
q) If over 9/1 up to and including 14/1, 5% of winnings deducted
r) If the non-runner is over 14/1 then there is no deduction
In the event of there being two or more withdrawals in one event, the total deduction shall not exceed 90p in £ (or 90% of the winnings). The Rule 4 deduction is not applied to the winning client’s returned stake, only to their winnings.
Milesey