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Punchestown Festival: Growise Champion Novice Chase, Tuesday 6.40
Back In Focus has won all four starts over fences, including Grade 1 (3m) at Leopardstown and National Hunt Chase at the Festival last time, showing stamina is very much his forte. Big player.
Boston Bob was one of last term's leading novice hurdlers, and took well to fences to win first two starts. Would have gone close to winning the RSA Chase at the Festival next time but for falling at the last.
Dedigout made up into a smart novice hurdler last term and back to best when winning Grade 3 over fences at Navan last month. Good second in Grade 1 at Fairyhouse since and more to come at this trip.
Harry Topper is a useful hurdler who could go to the top over fences, making it three in a row at Exeter (3m) in February. Mid-division when unseated rider at ninth at Kelso last time and well worth another chance.
Lyreen Legend proved a useful novice hurdler last term and similar standard over fences, winning Galway maiden and good efforts in graded company on completed starts since, 1¾ second in RSA Chase most recently.
Mount Benbulben is a Grade 2 hurdles winner who has shown smart form over fences, easy winner of a minor event at Thurles. Let down by jumping in Grade 1 at Fairyhouse last time, though, and others more solid.
Tofino Bay was a smart hurdler and has matched that form in this sphere, winner of the Troytown at Navan and a Naas Grade 2. Just caught by Back In Focus in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time.
Argocat proved a useful hurdler and at least as good over fences, winning Grade 2 event on Boxing Day. Effort best excused in the Jewson at Cheltenham and completed simple task in three-runner Grade 2 at Limerick since.
Timeform 1-2-3
1. Back In Focus
2. Boston Bob
3. Dedigout
Verdict: This looks very competitive. Willie Mullins holds a strong hand with Back In Focus and Boston Bob, the former narrowly preferred under Ruby Walsh. Dedigout tops the list of the many potential dangers to the pair.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Punchestown Festival: The big races previewed
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Ahead of the Punchestown Festival, A look through the biggest races at the meeting.
After what was a record-breaking Cheltenham Festival for Irish-trained horses at the ‘away fixture’ last month, it’s home advantage for the Irish as the Punchestown Festival ensures their jumps season ends on its traditional high. A total of 12 Grade 1 prizes will be up for grabs over the five days, the new addition to those being the Mares Hurdle on the Saturday.
For all the meeting contains five days of continually fine racing, the highlight of the whole affair could well be on Tuesday: at 17:30 Sprinter Sacre, Timeform’s highest-rated chaser since the days of Arkle, will appear in the Champion Chase. The race is marked as a highlight simply because of Sprinter Sacre’s presence (it will be his first run in Ireland), as it’s fairly unlikely that he will further inflate his monster figure of 192p. Only four rivals have been tasked with taking him on, and of them only Sizing Europe, smashed into second by Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham, could lay claim to being of genuine championship standard. It’s very difficult to see Sprinter Sacre losing his unbeaten record over fences on Tuesday but, then again, it feels like quite some time since his races have been betting heats rather than simply the must-watch spectacles they are now.
Earlier on the Tuesday card, there is a fascinating rematch between Champagne Fever and Jezki in the Champion Novice Hurdle over two miles. The pair finished first and third respectively in the Supreme at Cheltenham, with Jezki rather the forgotten horse in the race after Champagne Fever repelled strong favourite My Tent Or Yours up the hill. The feeling is that a test of speed would have given Jezki a real chance of reversing the form, but the current going of soft, heavy in places will probably play to the strengths of Champagne Fever. The pair won’t quite have it all their own way, but the fact is that Neptune runner-up Rule The World (who drops back to two miles for the first time since his hurdling debut) and County Winner Ted Veale will have to step up significantly to challenge if Jezki and Champagne Fever arrive in good heart.
The most open Grade 1 contest on Tuesday looks to be the Growise Champion Novice Chase over three miles and a furlong. Perhaps surprisingly, Willie Mullins and Graham Wylie have opted to run both National Hunt Challenge Cup winner Back In Focus and Boston Bob, the latter a late faller in the RSA Chase. They are challenged by Tofino Bay, who arguably should have beaten Back In Focus at Cheltenham; Dedigout, who arguably should have beaten Realt Mor in the Powers Gold Cup last time, and RSA runner-up Lyreen Legend. Timeform rated Boston Bob as a narrow winner of the RSA Chase, though that still leaves him with a little to find with both Back In Focus and Tofino Bay.
Wednesday sees the Gold Cup horses do battle for the Punchestown version. Although Cheltenham victor Bobs Worth won’t be there, second (Sir des Champs) third (Long Run) and sixth (Captain Chris) might be, while Aintree Bowl winner First Lieutenant is also entered. Although the group’s relative merit is probably established, Captain Chris is the one that could over-perform, his manner of jumping and his form (narrow second in the King George) both point to him faring better on a right-handed track.
The Irish Daily Mirror Novices’ Hurdle, also on the Wednesday, could be there for the taking for Willie Mullins. He trains leading contenders Pont Alexandre, Ballycasey and Inish Island, each of which comes here with very different agendas. Pont Alexandre is on something of a recovery mission after losing his unbeaten record at Cheltenham, whereas Inish Island is attempting to consolidate his position as a Grade 1 contender following a third-placed finish in the Albert Bartlett and Ballycasey is having his first try outside of everyday novices. That fact shouldn’t discredit Ballycasey, though, as the impression he’s left so far has been overwhelmingly positive.
Duel of the week comes on Thursday, with the World Series Hurdle pitting super mare Quevega against three-mile hurdling’s prince regent, Solwhit. With Quevega’s 7 lb mares’ allowance, she is narrowly ahead on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, though perhaps more pertinent is that on her typically-belated reappearance at the Cheltenham Festival she didn’t have to come near her best to land a fifth successive David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle. Solwhit, on the other hand, has been back at his very best when landing the World Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle on his last two starts. Both will be given stalking rides, so it could be fascinating to watch what may develop into a high-stakes game of ‘chicken’. That said, it’s not inconceivable that the likes of Thousand Stars, Reve de Sivola or even Zaidpour can make their mark against a pair that, although high-class, are no Big Buck’s.
The Ryanair Novice Chase over two miles could see rivalries from both the Arkle at Cheltenham and the Maghull at Aintree being renewed. Arkle runner-up Baily Green is narrowly top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings ahead of Maghull runner-up Overturn, and their renewal of rivalries could be a fascinating one. They’re far from the only contenders, however, with Grand Annual winner Alderwood (third in the Maghull), Jewson winner Benefficient and even Arkle disappointment Avrika Ligeonniere having the ability to make their presence felt.
After Quevega on Thursday, it’s the turn of another Mullins stalwart in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle on Friday, when Hurricane Fly will also be bidding to win the same race for the fourth year in a row. He is on an unbeaten run that stretches back to last year’s race, while his recent Champion Hurdle win, though not as visually impressive as he can be, showed that Hurricane Fly is still every bit as good as he’s ever been. Cheltenham runner-up Rock On Ruby could be in opposition again, though there seems nothing else among the 10 left in the race at the five-day stage that could seriously threaten an on-song Hurricane Fly.
If the present is easy enough for Hurricane Fly, the future could be much more difficult. Chief among the pretenders to his throne in 2014 looks set to be Our Conor, who is due to run in the Grade 1 four-year-old hurdle on Saturday. He achieved a figure of 165p for his Triumph Hurdle win, that being the biggest figure Timeform have ever bestowed on a juvenile, and if he’s in similar heart Saturday’s race should be little more than heightening the lofty ambitions connections will have for Our Conor, who has changed hands for a reported seven-figure sum since Cheltenham. Willie Mullins trains eight of the 10 currently entered up against Our Conor, but even the highest-rated of them will have to pull out two stones’-worth of improvement to challenge Our Conor should he arrive in the same form.
Milesey
( betfair )
GOLF
—–
The Zurich Classic
——————-
Tournament History
The first Zurich Classic was way back in 1938. There were no tournaments between 1949 and 1957 and this will be the 67th staging of the event.
Venue
TPC Louisiana, Avondale, Louisiana
Course Details
Par 72 -7,341 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 71.00
The TPC Louisiana made its event debut in 2005 but just a year later the tournament returned to its old venue, English Turn, after Hurricane Katrina devastated this venue. The event returned in 2007 and it’s been played here ever since.
TPC Louisiana, like Hilton Head last week, is a Bermuda grass Pete Dye design. Built on 250 acres of former swamp land, the course has 71 bunkers and fully 20 acres of the site are covered in sand! Water is in play on eight holes and the average-sized greens will be running at around 11 on the stimpmeter.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday.
Last Five Winners
2012 – Jason Dufner -19 (playoff)
2011 – Bubba Watson -15 (playoff)
2010 – Jason Bohn -18
2009 – Jerry Kelly -14
2008 – Andres Romero -13
What will it take to win the Zurich Classic?
Jason Dufner ranked 25th for Greens In Regulation twelve months ago but that looks an anomaly. All the other winners at this venue have ranked inside the top 10 for greens hit. The other stat to examine closely is Par 5 Performance – the worst any winner here has ranked is 18th (Jason Bohn) and four of the top-five last year played the long holes in double-digits under-par.
Is there an angle in?
This might be a place to break your PGA Tour duck, as 10 of the last 19, and five of the last eight winners, were all winning their first event.
Is there an identikit winner?
Finding the type of player to succeed here isn’t easy – the list of winners is quite confusing. Big-hitters Andres Romero, Nick Watney and Bubba Watson have all prospered but so too have Tim Petrovic, Jason Bohn and Jerry Kelly, players not known for the length by any means and last year’s winner, Dufner, fits in-between the two.
In-Play Tactics
With the last four winners all in front by halfway, this looks like another event to concentrate on the early pace-setters.
Andres Romero came from a country mile back (73rd after round one!) in 2008 but the last four winners have all been up there all the way.
Dufner, having ended day one tied for 7th and two off the lead, hit the front at halfway, Bubba Watson and Jason Bohn, in 2011 and 2010, both won wire-to-wire and Jerry Kelly, like Dufner, had hit the front by halfway in 2009.
Market Leaders
In an open-looking affair, Justin Rose heads the market at 14.5. Although winless in 2013, the Englishman has been in fine fettle and sooner or later the odds are that he’ll knock down the door he’s been hammering on. He went to Augusta on the back of three straight top-tens on the PGA Tour and contended there too before his challenge disintegrated over the weekend.
There has to be a concern that that has left its mark and given tied 10th is the best he’s mustered here from five starts, I’m more than happy to leave him out.
The last two winners of the event, Dufner and Bubba, are vying for second favouritism but both look a shade too short to me.
It’s never easy defending a title and defending your first one is probably doubly so. Although he has, by some distance, the best course form on display, with figures that read 44-9-7-3-1, I can see Dufner struggling a bit this week. Not only does he have the pressure of defending, he isn’t in tip-top form at present either.
Bubba finished tied for 18th twelve months ago and that was a fantastic effort given the circumstances. He wasn’t just attempting to defend this title, he was also attempting to win back-to-back tournaments and the first one was quite a biggy – the US Masters! I can’t take the plunge at less than 20.0 before the off but I will be keeping a close eye on him in-running.
The only other two players trading at less than 30.0 are Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler and as they nearly always appear to me, they both look way too short.
Selections
Given their strong record in the event, I’ll be concentrating my efforts on the early pace-setters but I have picked out three before the off…
I’m a huge fan of Graham DeLaet and I’ve backed him a number of times but not recently. With his form far more consistent this season, the days of getting huge prices about the Canadian look gone for now but his missed cut last week at the Heritage, at a venue I wouldn’t have thought suited, looks to have given us a chance.
DeLaet is the only man in the field that ranks in the top-ten for the two stats that count – GIR and Par 5 Performance. He played alongside Dufner in the final group on Sunday last year but dropped down to a tie for fourth. As stated above, maidens have a decent record at this tournament, could Graham be the next one to break his PGA Tour duck here?
I backed Rory Sabbatini last week when he finished inside the top-ten at Hilton Head and I’ve done so again this. He was a bit of a stab in the dark at the Heritage and he was priced up accordingly. If I’m honest, I had to talk myself into taking 85.0 this week after backing him at 280.0 last, but he showed plenty at Hilton Head and I couldn’t let him go un-backed.
He was runner-up here behind Jerry Kelly in 2009 and he ranked 2nd for greens hit last week. You never quite know what you’re going to get with Sabba but he’s a multiple winner who’s not frightened of winning and when he’s on-song he’s a man I want onside.
Boo Weekley was all the rage last week as he attempted to win his third Heritage title – gambled down to a far too-short price in the 30.0’s. Tied 42nd wasn’t a great effort, thanks mainly to some poor scrambling and a cold putter and he has a mixed record here with form figures reading MC-13-10-MC but I thought he was worth chancing at a big price.
Currently ranked 6th for GIR and 13th for par 5 performance, like DeLaet, he ticks the right stats boxes boldly and with less pressure than last week, I can see him getting involved.
Selections:
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.0
Graham DeLaet @ 85.0
Boo Weekley @ 90.0
*********************************************************
The Ballantine’s Championship
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Tournament History
The Ballantine’s Championship is a European, Asian and Korean Tour tri-sanctioned tournament that tends to attract one or two top-class players, thanks largely to generous appearance fees but we’ve lost a few this year – the two Johnsons, Zach and Dustin, have both withdrawn from the event due to the “perceived unrest on the Korean Peninsula”. This will be just the sixth staging of the event.
Venue
Blackstone Golf Club, Icheon, Seoul, South Korea
Course Details
Par 72 – 7302 yards
Stroke Average in 2013 -73.04
Designed by JMP Group and opened in 2010, Blackstone has been used as the event’s venue for the last two years.
It’s about now that I wish I’d made some notes on the course after last year’s renewal. The European Tour website describes the fairways as ‘wide and contoured’ and yet they depict the general playability as ‘very narrow’, which is confusing to say the least.
It’s a tree-lined track with water in-play on a number of holes and the greens ran at around 10.6 on the stimpmeter last year.
If it helps, and I’m not entirely sure it will, Tournament Director David Williams had this to say about the venue before last year’s event: “On the fourth hole we now have the option of moving the tee forward and making it driveable. It’s a stunning hole and makes for very exciting golf.
“The whole course will provide a tough challenge for the field. It’s long, but it’s not all about power and long hitting; it’s a thinking player’s course. It’s also very scenic with fantastic views, creeks, lakes and forest glens.
“There are a couple of excellent par threes which are long and over water – the seventh and the 12th holes. It’s a young course as it only opened a couple of years ago, and every year it will mature and get even better.
“It’s hilly so it will be physically demanding as well, and the greens are undulating and offer some testing pin positions.
“Then you have the club itself, which is stunning. It is very exclusive and will provide the perfect backdrop to what I am sure will be a tremendous week of golf.”
Damien McGrane, after taking the lead on day one two years ago, described the fairways as generous and Lee Westwood stated after his win: “It’s a difficult course because it goes around the hills and it’s difficult to pick the wind up; it swirls a lot.”
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 5.30am on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Bernd Wiesberger
2011 – Lee Westwood
2010 – Marcus Fraser
2009 – Thongchai Jaidee (play-off)
2008 – Graeme McDowell (play-off)
What will it take to win the Ballantine’s Championship?
Having had just two renewals at this venue, finding a way in isn’t easy, especially as the first winner here was an experienced pro and the second a rookie.
Both winners, Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger, came here in good form – Westwood had won the Indonesian Masters seven days earlier and Wiesberger, having spent time with his coach, had found improvement in all aspects of his game to finish 7th in Indonesia.
The stats don’t provide too many clues. Westwood ranked 6th for driving distance and 4th for greens hit, whilst Wiesberger ranked 6th for putting and tied 12th for greens hit. Neither men were especially accurate off the tee but both scored heavily on the par fives.
The top-tens from each renewal are littered with quality players and quality players that play well in the wind.
Is there an angle in?
Just to reiterate the above point, wind will almost certainly be a factor this week and an ability to handle breezy conditions is essential.
I could be barking up the wrong tree entirely, but visually, Blackstone reminds me of Bro Hof Slott, home of the Nordea Masters. Lee Westwood has won at both venues and Alex Noren has won the Nordea Masters and played well here, so there could be something in it.
In-Play Tactics
You can dissect the course roughly into thirds, with holes 1-6 providing a relatively gentle start and holes 14 – 18 a reasonable finish. Holes 7-13 are all tough with the possible exception of the 12th, which last year ranked the 10th hardest.
With the wind forecast to blow on each of the first two afternoons, it’s going to be tough to tee-off on the 10th in the afternoon.
Both winners here started fairly slowly. Westwood was way down in 36th and six of the pace after day one and Wiesberger was four back. The former didn’t hit the front until late on – on Sunday but the latter led from halfway.
Market Leaders
World number seven, Louis Oosthuizen, is by some distance the highest ranked player in the field now that the American duo have withdrawn and he has a habit of winning European Tour events in far-flung places but he hasn’t been in the tip-top form of late and I’m happy to dismiss him on his course debut.
Second favourite, Alex Noren, has shown a liking for the venue having finished tied 5th in 2011 and tied 7th last year. He should have fared much better two years ago, having traded at just a shade over 2.0 when he went a couple clear early on in round four before making five bogeys on his way to the clubhouse.
That woeful finish might just have left its mark as he opened up with a round of 75 twelve months ago before firing rounds of 66-69-69 over the last three days. Nobody’s played the long holes better than the Swede over the last two years and he won’t mind one jot if it gets windy but his obvious chance is reflected by his price and I’m happy to leave him out of my calculations.
The first three home last year more-or less occupy the next three spots in the market but again, if there’s value there I can’t see it. Backing Wiesberger at 130.0 last year was one the highlights of 2012 for me but even sentiment won’t allow me to take almost a hundred points less this time around. And Richie Ramsay and Victor Dubuisson (2nd and 3rd twelve months ago) both look plenty short enough to me.
Selections
Having turned my nose up at the front few in the market, a number of players a little further down the list were of interest, including Ryder Cupper Paul Lawrie, recent winner Kiradech Aphibarnrat and former Ballantine’s Champ, Marcus Fraser but in the end, I’ve decided to take it very easy from the off and play just two rank outsiders.
Having just switched coaches, Frenchman Gregory Havret is bullish about his form and he looks worth chancing this week, despite missing the cut in Spain, courtesy of a three-putt on his final hole on Friday.
He’s tweeted how Raphael Jacquelin’s win there will inspire him and watching Graeme McDowell winning stateside might spur him on too – Havret finished second to G-Mac in the US Open there just years ago.
Havret’s been in the doldrums for some time and he managed just one top-ten finish in 2012 but as it came at Bro Hof Slott, if I’m right about the possible course correlation, this could be a good week to see him get back to form.
With an impressive five under-par 67, Gareth Maybin shot the round of the day on Sunday at the Open de Espana where he ranked no worse than 25th for any aspect of his game.
He finished runner-up to Marcus Fraser in this event three years ago and his course form isn’t bad either. He was 13th in 2011 and 38th twelve months ago.
His sudden upturn in form caught my eye and reminded me of last year’s winner, Wiesberger. He won’t mind any windy weather and I thought he was worth a small play at 160.0.
Selections:
Gregory Havret @ 160.0
Gareth Maybin @ 160.0
**Andreas Harto @ 230.00
**I’ve just added a small wager on Andreas Harto, who was a late invite. He was a selection last week when he ruined his chance with a bizarre 81 on Saturday. I rate the young Dane highly and I’m prepared to forgive that one bad round and keep him onside at such a big price.
BETFAIR
Milesey the 3 players you picked for Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Selections:………………….bet365
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.0………. @ 60.00
Graham DeLaet @ 85.0……….. @ 60.00
Boo Weekley @ 90.0…………. @ 56.00
bet365 are giving a bet of leader after first round I’ve did your three e/w 1/4 odds first 5 to finish in top 5 after day 1
GOLF THREAD – BOTH TOURNAMENTS PLEASE – THANK YOU
—————————————————
The Zurich Classic
——————-
Tournament History
The first Zurich Classic was way back in 1938. There were no tournaments between 1949 and 1957 and this will be the 67th staging of the event.
Venue
TPC Louisiana, Avondale, Louisiana
Course Details
Par 72 -7,341 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 71.00
The TPC Louisiana made its event debut in 2005 but just a year later the tournament returned to its old venue, English Turn, after Hurricane Katrina devastated this venue. The event returned in 2007 and it’s been played here ever since.
TPC Louisiana, like Hilton Head last week, is a Bermuda grass Pete Dye design. Built on 250 acres of former swamp land, the course has 71 bunkers and fully 20 acres of the site are covered in sand! Water is in play on eight holes and the average-sized greens will be running at around 11 on the stimpmeter.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday.
Last Five Winners
2012 – Jason Dufner -19 (playoff)
2011 – Bubba Watson -15 (playoff)
2010 – Jason Bohn -18
2009 – Jerry Kelly -14
2008 – Andres Romero -13
What will it take to win the Zurich Classic?
Jason Dufner ranked 25th for Greens In Regulation twelve months ago but that looks an anomaly. All the other winners at this venue have ranked inside the top 10 for greens hit. The other stat to examine closely is Par 5 Performance – the worst any winner here has ranked is 18th (Jason Bohn) and four of the top-five last year played the long holes in double-digits under-par.
Is there an angle in?
This might be a place to break your PGA Tour duck, as 10 of the last 19, and five of the last eight winners, were all winning their first event.
Is there an identikit winner?
Finding the type of player to succeed here isn’t easy – the list of winners is quite confusing. Big-hitters Andres Romero, Nick Watney and Bubba Watson have all prospered but so too have Tim Petrovic, Jason Bohn and Jerry Kelly, players not known for the length by any means and last year’s winner, Dufner, fits in-between the two.
In-Play Tactics
With the last four winners all in front by halfway, this looks like another event to concentrate on the early pace-setters.
Andres Romero came from a country mile back (73rd after round one!) in 2008 but the last four winners have all been up there all the way.
Dufner, having ended day one tied for 7th and two off the lead, hit the front at halfway, Bubba Watson and Jason Bohn, in 2011 and 2010, both won wire-to-wire and Jerry Kelly, like Dufner, had hit the front by halfway in 2009.
Market Leaders
In an open-looking affair, Justin Rose heads the market at 14.5. Although winless in 2013, the Englishman has been in fine fettle and sooner or later the odds are that he’ll knock down the door he’s been hammering on. He went to Augusta on the back of three straight top-tens on the PGA Tour and contended there too before his challenge disintegrated over the weekend.
There has to be a concern that that has left its mark and given tied 10th is the best he’s mustered here from five starts, I’m more than happy to leave him out.
The last two winners of the event, Dufner and Bubba, are vying for second favouritism but both look a shade too short to me.
It’s never easy defending a title and defending your first one is probably doubly so. Although he has, by some distance, the best course form on display, with figures that read 44-9-7-3-1, I can see Dufner struggling a bit this week. Not only does he have the pressure of defending, he isn’t in tip-top form at present either.
Bubba finished tied for 18th twelve months ago and that was a fantastic effort given the circumstances. He wasn’t just attempting to defend this title, he was also attempting to win back-to-back tournaments and the first one was quite a biggy – the US Masters! I can’t take the plunge at less than 20.0 before the off but I will be keeping a close eye on him in-running.
The only other two players trading at less than 30.0 are Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler and as they nearly always appear to me, they both look way too short.
Selections
Given their strong record in the event, I’ll be concentrating my efforts on the early pace-setters but I have picked out three before the off…
I’m a huge fan of Graham DeLaet and I’ve backed him a number of times but not recently. With his form far more consistent this season, the days of getting huge prices about the Canadian look gone for now but his missed cut last week at the Heritage, at a venue I wouldn’t have thought suited, looks to have given us a chance.
DeLaet is the only man in the field that ranks in the top-ten for the two stats that count – GIR and Par 5 Performance. He played alongside Dufner in the final group on Sunday last year but dropped down to a tie for fourth. As stated above, maidens have a decent record at this tournament, could Graham be the next one to break his PGA Tour duck here?
I backed Rory Sabbatini last week when he finished inside the top-ten at Hilton Head and I’ve done so again this. He was a bit of a stab in the dark at the Heritage and he was priced up accordingly. If I’m honest, I had to talk myself into taking 85.0 this week after backing him at 280.0 last, but he showed plenty at Hilton Head and I couldn’t let him go un-backed.
He was runner-up here behind Jerry Kelly in 2009 and he ranked 2nd for greens hit last week. You never quite know what you’re going to get with Sabba but he’s a multiple winner who’s not frightened of winning and when he’s on-song he’s a man I want onside.
Boo Weekley was all the rage last week as he attempted to win his third Heritage title – gambled down to a far too-short price in the 30.0’s. Tied 42nd wasn’t a great effort, thanks mainly to some poor scrambling and a cold putter and he has a mixed record here with form figures reading MC-13-10-MC but I thought he was worth chancing at a big price.
Currently ranked 6th for GIR and 13th for par 5 performance, like DeLaet, he ticks the right stats boxes boldly and with less pressure than last week, I can see him getting involved.
Selections:
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.0
Graham DeLaet @ 85.0
Boo Weekley @ 90.0
*********************************************************
The Ballantine’s Championship
——————————
Tournament History
The Ballantine’s Championship is a European, Asian and Korean Tour tri-sanctioned tournament that tends to attract one or two top-class players, thanks largely to generous appearance fees but we’ve lost a few this year – the two Johnsons, Zach and Dustin, have both withdrawn from the event due to the “perceived unrest on the Korean Peninsula”. This will be just the sixth staging of the event.
Venue
Blackstone Golf Club, Icheon, Seoul, South Korea
Course Details
Par 72 – 7302 yards
Stroke Average in 2013 -73.04
Designed by JMP Group and opened in 2010, Blackstone has been used as the event’s venue for the last two years.
It’s about now that I wish I’d made some notes on the course after last year’s renewal. The European Tour website describes the fairways as ‘wide and contoured’ and yet they depict the general playability as ‘very narrow’, which is confusing to say the least.
It’s a tree-lined track with water in-play on a number of holes and the greens ran at around 10.6 on the stimpmeter last year.
If it helps, and I’m not entirely sure it will, Tournament Director David Williams had this to say about the venue before last year’s event: “On the fourth hole we now have the option of moving the tee forward and making it driveable. It’s a stunning hole and makes for very exciting golf.
“The whole course will provide a tough challenge for the field. It’s long, but it’s not all about power and long hitting; it’s a thinking player’s course. It’s also very scenic with fantastic views, creeks, lakes and forest glens.
“There are a couple of excellent par threes which are long and over water – the seventh and the 12th holes. It’s a young course as it only opened a couple of years ago, and every year it will mature and get even better.
“It’s hilly so it will be physically demanding as well, and the greens are undulating and offer some testing pin positions.
“Then you have the club itself, which is stunning. It is very exclusive and will provide the perfect backdrop to what I am sure will be a tremendous week of golf.”
Damien McGrane, after taking the lead on day one two years ago, described the fairways as generous and Lee Westwood stated after his win: “It’s a difficult course because it goes around the William Hill and it’s difficult to pick the wind up; it swirls a lot.”
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 5.30am on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Bernd Wiesberger
2011 – Lee Westwood
2010 – Marcus Fraser
2009 – Thongchai Jaidee (play-off)
2008 – Graeme McDowell (play-off)
What will it take to win the Ballantine’s Championship?
Having had just two renewals at this venue, finding a way in isn’t easy, especially as the first winner here was an experienced pro and the second a rookie.
Both winners, Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger, came here in good form – Westwood had won the Indonesian Masters seven days earlier and Wiesberger, having spent time with his coach, had found improvement in all aspects of his game to finish 7th in Indonesia.
The stats don’t provide too many clues. Westwood ranked 6th for driving distance and 4th for greens hit, whilst Wiesberger ranked 6th for putting and tied 12th for greens hit. Neither men were especially accurate off the tee but both scored heavily on the par fives.
The top-tens from each renewal are littered with quality players and quality players that play well in the wind.
Is there an angle in?
Just to reiterate the above point, wind will almost certainly be a factor this week and an ability to handle breezy conditions is essential.
I could be barking up the wrong tree entirely, but visually, Blackstone reminds me of Bro Hof Slott, home of the Nordea Masters. Lee Westwood has won at both venues and Alex Noren has won the Nordea Masters and played well here, so there could be something in it.
In-Play Tactics
You can dissect the course roughly into thirds, with holes 1-6 providing a relatively gentle start and holes 14 – 18 a reasonable finish. Holes 7-13 are all tough with the possible exception of the 12th, which last year ranked the 10th hardest.
With the wind forecast to blow on each of the first two afternoons, it’s going to be tough to tee-off on the 10th in the afternoon.
Both winners here started fairly slowly. Westwood was way down in 36th and six of the pace after day one and Wiesberger was four back. The former didn’t hit the front until late on – on Sunday but the latter led from halfway.
Market Leaders
World number seven, Louis Oosthuizen, is by some distance the highest ranked player in the field now that the American duo have withdrawn and he has a habit of winning European Tour events in far-flung places but he hasn’t been in the tip-top form of late and I’m happy to dismiss him on his course debut.
Second favourite, Alex Noren, has shown a liking for the venue having finished tied 5th in 2011 and tied 7th last year. He should have fared much better two years ago, having traded at just a shade over 2.0 when he went a couple clear early on in round four before making five bogeys on his way to the clubhouse.
That woeful finish might just have left its mark as he opened up with a round of 75 twelve months ago before firing rounds of 66-69-69 over the last three days. Nobody’s played the long holes better than the Swede over the last two years and he won’t mind one jot if it gets windy but his obvious chance is reflected by his price and I’m happy to leave him out of my calculations.
The first three home last year more-or less occupy the next three spots in the market but again, if there’s value there I can’t see it. Backing Wiesberger at 130.0 last year was one the highlights of 2012 for me but even sentiment won’t allow me to take almost a hundred points less this time around. And Richie Ramsay and Victor Dubuisson (2nd and 3rd twelve months ago) both look plenty short enough to me.
Selections
Having turned my nose up at the front few in the market, a number of players a little further down the list were of interest, including Ryder Cupper Paul Lawrie, recent winner Kiradech Aphibarnrat and former Ballantine’s Champ, Marcus Fraser but in the end, I’ve decided to take it very easy from the off and play just two rank outsiders.
Having just switched coaches, Frenchman Gregory Havret is bullish about his form and he looks worth chancing this week, despite missing the cut in Spain, courtesy of a three-putt on his final hole on Friday.
He’s tweeted how Raphael Jacquelin’s win there will inspire him and watching Graeme McDowell winning stateside might spur him on too – Havret finished second to G-Mac in the US Open there just years ago.
Havret’s been in the doldrums for some time and he managed just one top-ten finish in 2012 but as it came at Bro Hof Slott, if I’m right about the possible course correlation, this could be a good week to see him get back to form.
With an impressive five under-par 67, Gareth Maybin shot the round of the day on Sunday at the Open de Espana where he ranked no worse than 25th for any aspect of his game.
He finished runner-up to Marcus Fraser in this event three years ago and his course form isn’t bad either. He was 13th in 2011 and 38th twelve months ago.
His sudden upturn in form caught my eye and reminded me of last year’s winner, Wiesberger. He won’t mind any windy weather and I thought he was worth a small play at 160.0.
Selections:
Gregory Havret @ 160.0
Gareth Maybin @ 160.0
**Andreas Harto @ 230.00
**I’ve just added a small wager on Andreas Harto, who was a late invite. He was a selection last week when he ruined his chance with a bizarre 81 on Saturday. I rate the young Dane highly and I’m prepared to forgive that one bad round and keep him onside at such a big price.
Milesey
Betfair