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SANTEFISIO is a consistent sort, winning a handicap at Kempton in November. Decent efforts in defeat at Meydan earlier in year but as high as he’s been in the weights at present.
Thunderball looked better than ever when making winning return to turf in big-field Doncaster handicap last month. Well held back there since, though, and wide draw perhaps not deal for his frontrunning style.
York Glory got career firmly back on track with tw of AW wins in November. Decent efforts on that surface earlier this year but just respectable sixth back on turf last time. Stiff 6f possibly not ideal.
Misplaced Fortune has gained two of last three wins over C&D, beating My Sharona ¾ length in September. Has generally been better for her first run of the season, though, so perhaps best to look elsewhere this time.
Singeur got back to form when bagging a 5f Ripon handicap in August. Starts new campaign off that same winning mark and has gone well fresh before. Not discounted.
Colonel Mak was twice successful over 6f last year. Not at best in couple of starts at Doncaster so far this term and need to see more before lending support.
Escape To Glory was a pretty useful performer for Mikael Magnusson last year, winning over 6f/7f. Bought for 72,000 gns last autumn and returns to action with new yard in good form.
Galician looked as good as ever when making frame in 7f polytrack/turf handicaps on first two starts this year. Not at best latest but unlikely to be down for long and his three career wins have come over this trip.
Sir Reginald landed a valuable sales race 2011 and occasionally shaped well in good handicaps last year. Starts new campaign off career-low mark and yard in flying form. Has hood on for just second time.
Head Space was in excellent heart last summer, landing handicaps at Newcastle and Ayr. Showed he’s returned in good form when length third at Beverley last week and got to be high on shortlist here.
Al’s Memory’s form has taken off on polytrack over the winter, winning five times this year. Another good effort when third last time and a player from a handy draw here if just as effective back on turf.
All Or Nothin won three times in 2012, taking form up another notch when scoring in first-time hood at Chester in September. Below form when eighth on last month’s reappearance but should be sharper now.
Red Aggressor’s sole win to date came in AW maiden in August 2011 but was back to best when second in first-time hood at Lingfield last month. Fair sixth at Kempton since and not discounted back on turf.
Haftohaf won first two starts over 7f at Wolverhampton last autumn and made frame all five starts since. Faded when third at Leicester (7f) latest and worth this try over shorter. Is 9 lb out of weights, though.
1. Head Space
2. Sir Reginald
3. Singeur
Verdict: Head Space developed into a useful sprinter during his first season with Ruth Carr and gets the nod here having shaped well on his return to action at Beverley last week. Sir Reginald hails from an in-form yard and is an interesting runner off what could be a good mark, with Singeur another handicapped to go close if primed for his first run of the year.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
15:10 Pontefract
6f Hcap – Monday 22 April – 14 Runners
BSP Displays Betfair‘s Starting Price (SP) options. Singles bets placed at SP are settled at Betfair‘s Exchange Starting Price, which, unlike other bookmakers, is calculated by balancing SP bets and exchange bets at the time the event starts. SP bets cannot be cancelled once placed.
10 (6) Head Space 5.0
9 (9) Sir Reginald 8.2
7 (8) Escape To Glory 9.6
8 (1) Galician 5.8
11 (2) Als Memory 18.0
5 (4) Singeur 16.5
3 (14) York Glory 12.0
4 (10) Misplaced Fortune 17.5
13 (3) Red Aggressor 15.5
12 (11) All Or Nothin 12.5
1 (12) Santefisio 24.0
2 (13) Thunderball 22.0
6 (7) Colonel Mak 13.5
14 (5) Haftohaf 16.0
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/horse-racing/market?id=1.109119500
Milesey
( betfair )
GOLF SUMMARY
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Day four of the Open de Espana began with two Scots and two Englishmen filling the first four spots on the leaderboard but it finished with a record-equalling playoff between a Frenchman, a German and a Chilean.
Third round leader, Marc Warren, had looked by far the most likely winner for most of the day, trading at a low of just 1.36, but just as he’d done at last year’s years Scottish Open, he finished very poorly and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
He led by one with two to play after chipping in from the greenside bunker for birdie on 16 but back-to-back bogeys followed and he didn’t even make the playoff – won by Raphael Jacquelin, a pre-event 70.0 shot, at the ninth extra hole!
The playoff will go into the record books as the longest in European Tour history but making them play the same hole over and over again resulted in a dull and forgettable affair. Why they didn’t switch to the tricky par 3 17th after a couple of deadlocks up the 18th is hard to fathom.
The RBC heritage also went to a playoff but mercifully, that one was decided at the first attempt. The title went to pre-event 46.0 shot, Graeme McDowell, courtesy of a par four on the 18th hole, when Webb Simpson failed to get up-and-down after missing the green.
One quirky footnote from the Heritage result is that an international player has now won the last three PGA Tour events. Not particularly striking maybe but noteworthy given that Americans had won the first 14 of the season.
A day for wind-specialists
There was no let-up at all yesterday at Hilton Head and only the best wind players were left standing.
It was a particularly bad result for me because I’d always believed the ‘G-Mac’s a great wind player’ mantra was something of a myth. I’d witnessed him lose his way in breezy conditions more times than not but after yesterday, I won’t make that mistake again.
This is a great round to look back on, as anyone who broke par can clearly play in the wind.
Players to follow
It was impossible not to be impressed by German youngster, Maximilian Kieffer, who went the distance with Rafa in the playoff, and he looks sure to win on the European Tour sooner rather than later but the one that caught my eye for the near future, was Emiliano Grillo.
Argentines have a good record at the Madeira Islands Open and next month’s renewal at Clube de Golf do Santo da Serra might offer up a good chance for the talented Grillo to break his European Tour duck.
Players to swerve
Both third round leaders, Marc Warren and Charley Hoffman, wilted really badly and they’re both players to treat with the utmost caution.
What have we learnt for next year?
Many a major winner has taken the Heritage title and this year’s playoff was contested by two of the last three US Open champs, but having the US Masters played out the week before puts us punters in a bit of a quandary, as it’s odds-on than the majority of major winners pitching up at Hilton Head have just played Augusta.
The market was dominated by those that had contended last week’s US Masters but of those that figured at Augusta, only Luke Donald and Marc Leishman figured here at all. G-Mac and Simpson had both played in the year’s first major but both had missed the cut. They had the class but they hadn’t experienced a gruelling weekend at Augusta and that could be an angle in next year.
With its tiny greens, Scrambling is the key stat to concentrate on at Hilton Head. G-Mac ranked 1st and Simpson 3rd and in the last 6 years, the leader in Scrambling for the week has now finished 4th, 1st, 1st, 6th, 8th, and 1st.
We seem to be faced with a new course almost every time we have an event in Spain and it’s possible that we won’t see this week’s venue, Parador de El Saler, again for many a year but just in case we do, it reminded me of a couple of different courses.
I’ve previously mentioned how I felt it correlated with both Kennemer in Holland and Oitavos Dunes in Portugal but when Marc Warren hit the front, I couldn’t help but think about Barseback, home of the Scandinavian Masters on a number of occasions.
Warren beat Robert Karlsson in the 2006 renewal of the Swedish event and Jacquelin finished 5th. Given that Warren should have won here this weekend and the other two have, an examination of the results and stats at Barseback may pay dividends if we do return.
Don’t back the Spanish at the Open de Espana. The home contingency’s record really isn’t great and yet again they struggled this year. Sergio Garcia put in an early run yesterday but it soon fizzled out and he eventually finished tied for 12th alongside fellow countryman Nacho Elvira. That pair were the only two from Spain to finish inside the top-26.
I’ll have previews for this week’s two events, the Ballantine’s Championship and the Zurich Classic, later in the week.
Milesey
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE MATCHES
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Bayern Munich v Barcelona 19:45 LIVE ON ITV
Bundesliga’s best are the value bet ahead of Champions League semi……………
You don’t often find Bayern Munich outsiders to win a game or qualify from a tie, but their credentials are clear and I can’t resist going with the German champions ahead of Tuesday night’s meeting with Barcelona
“I bet my arse that Bayern will be calling up Guardiola” was Borussia Dortmund coach Jürgen Klopp’s wisecrack after his Bundesliga rivals drew Barcelona in the semi-finals of the Champions League. Affronted by his cheek, Bayern made a wager themselves. “Klopp’s arse,” said vice-president Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, “will end up in the Bayern museum. He should have bet his hair transplant. It would be easier to transport than his arse.”
Talking out of it or not, Klopp simply said what many people were thinking when Bayern and Barcelona’s names were pulled out the hat. A common reaction to it was: “Oh, now that could be awkward.”
Guardiola is the elephant in the room and with that mischief Klopp had reminded everyone of it. Resentful of the implication that he couldn’t mastermind a plan of his own to beat Barcelona, Bayern coach Jupp Heynckes said: “I don’t need anyone’s help studying an opponent. I ask for respect.”
This underlying narrative to the tie gives it a certain fascination, particularly from a psychological point of view. For instance, how must Guardiola feel? You’d imagine that, for all that he’s a professional and a man of great integrity, he might still feel conflicted and torn by it. He’s only human after all. Wouldn’t a Barcelona win over both legs be in his interests too? You’d definitely think it’d make his job at Bayern next season that little bit easier.
As for Heynckes, well, were he to oust Barcelona from the competition, you might argue that it’d be like beating Guardiola by proxy, that it would make a statement along the lines of: we already have our own winning philosophy, what do we need his for? Further to that it would reinforce the growing doubt as to how exactly Guardiola can improve this team to say nothing of leading to a groundswell of sympathy for Heynckes at being pensioned off despite a record-breaking season.
The exchange has Barcelona as favourites to qualify from this tie and for the final at 1.84. That’s understandable, but it strikes me as perhaps a touch too respectful of everything they’ve achieved over the last four-and-a-half seasons. Barcelona have ‘only’ won one of their last five Champions League games. That, lest we forget, was the ‘reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated’ performance against Milan in the Round of 16 when they overturned a 2-0 first leg defeat with a 4-0 win in the second.
Lionel Messi, you might say, got them out of jail on that occasion and he did once again in the final half-hour of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain when he shrugged off an injury to come on and inspire his teammates to find the equaliser they needed to go through on away goals.
With that in mind there’s no hyperbole in saying Barcelona haven’t been as convincing as in recent years and you suspect that their defensive frailties – Carles Puyol and Javier Mascherano are injured while Adriano is suspended – will come under more exacting scrutiny than they have done by anyone else this season when they meet Bayern at the Allianz Arena.
Saturday’s 6-1 away win at Hannover was a Bundesliga record 26th this season and was their ninth in a row on the road. If winning the Meisterschale already hadn’t allowed Bayern to focus on the Champions League, then going 3-0 up inside 40 minutes at the weekend did at least permit Heynckes to bring some of his stars off early so that their legs are fresh for Tuesday night.
The only concerns they have are as follows: Mario Mandzukic, their top scorer, is suspended for the first leg while Toni Kroos, their chief technician, a player as important for his passing as Mandzukic is for his pressing is injured. Their absences will be felt, particularly given the assumption that the attributes they have are the kind that would allow Bayern to impose themselves and maybe even dictate the terms of the tie.
So powerful has this team shown itself to be, though, that a defeat at home seems unlikely. Bayern at this moment in time look more than a match for Barcelona. On that note, back them to win on the night at 2.3 and to qualify at 2.16.
Recommended Bets
Bayern to win at 2.3
Bayern to qualify at 2.16
Milesey
( Betfair )
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday 19:45, live on Sky Sports 2
After watching an exquisitely executed and well-timed ‘falling leaf’ of a free-kick from Mesut Özil bounce in off the post in the 88th minute of their second encounter with Borussia Dortmund in the group stages of the Champions League this season, a goal that rescued his Real Madrid team from the brink of defeat at home, coach José Mourinho made a prediction. “If they go through,” he said, “they are candidates to win the tournament.”
Dortmund had been unlucky to draw 2-2 at the Bernabéu. The consensus was that they’d deserved to go back-to-back against Real. And it was now abundantly clear, if any further proof were necessary, that their 2-1 victory at the Westfalenstadion a fortnight earlier had been no fluke. Dortmund had taken four points off Real and would unexpectedly win this season’s Group of Death in the Champions League. Coach Jürgen Klopp and his team were hailed across Europe.
The question is: can they repeat the feat when it really matters in the knock-out stages? A glance at the exchange reveals that the market isn’t as confident as you might expect after those performances in the winter.
Real are slight favourites to win at the Westfalenstadion on Tuesday. They’re trading at 2.62 to Dortmund’s 2.88. The nine-time winners are even shorter to qualify too at 1.49 whereas the German pretenders can be backed at 3.0.
Why is that then? Well, just like in 1998 when these sides last met in the Champions League semi-finals, Real are out of the title face in La Liga and this is their sole focus. They went through then, albeit after a farcical first leg, which was delayed for 75 minutes when a goal collapsed before kick-off at the Bernabéu, an incident that led Dortmund, who lost 2-0 on the night, to protest and ask that they be awarded a 3-0 win by default. UEFA refused and Real, after drawing 0-0 in Germany, went through to the final where they beat Juventus to win the competition.
Will history repeat itself? Real can be backed to lift the trophy for a historic 10th time at 3.3. Mourinho, you suspect, will also be under no illusion as to the significance of how the outcome of this tie will define his legacy at the club. But wait a minute: Aren’t Dortmund in more or less the same situation as Real? The success or failure of their season rests on this tie too. The Bundesliga has gone. So too has the German Cup. It all comes down to this.
Klopp also knows how to beat them. In an interview with El País before Real Madrid played Manchester United in the Round of 16, he revealed his game plan. “We knew where they send their passes, how they look for Cristiano,” Klopp said. “Our plan was to take Xabi Alonso out of the game. Because if Alonso is allowed to play how he wants it’s impossible to defend against Madrid. And Götze covered him. We knew that if our wide players, Piszczek and Schmelzer move a lot, the advantage was ours on Cristiano’s side of the pitch. If you block Xabi, you oblige Pepe to always keep the ball.”
One expects, though, that Mourinho will have prepared a series of counter-measures. He’s no fool. After playing two games against Dortmund, you anticipate that he will have figured them out. Remember, Mourinho’s Inter side drew and lost to Barcelona in the group stages before surprisingly knocking them in the semi-finals back in 2010. They’d clearly learnt from their earlier experiences against them and that was to their advantage.
Having said that, Dortmund have won all of their Champions League home games this season, while Real have claimed victory on the road just twice: first away to Ajax then at Manchester United when, as Mourinho sai,d “the best team lost.” One nil down, they turned things around to win 2-1 only after Nani’s sending off.
With that in mind, why not back Dortmund to win at 2.88.
Recommended Bets
Back Dortmund to win @ 2.88
Milesey
( Betfair )
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GOLF
—-
A look at this week’s European Tour action in Korea
Tournament History
The Ballantine’s Championship is a European, Asian and Korean Tour tri-sanctioned tournament that tends to attract one or two top-class players, thanks largely to generous appearance fees but we’ve lost a few this year – the two Johnsons, Zach and Dustin, have both withdrawn from the event due to the “perceived unrest on the Korean Peninsula”. This will be just the sixth staging of the event.
Venue
Blackstone Golf Club, Icheon, Seoul, South Korea
Course Details
Par 72 – 7302 yards
Stroke Average in 2013 -73.04
Designed by JMP Group and opened in 2010, Blackstone has been used as the event’s venue for the last two years.
It’s about now that I wish I’d made some notes on the course after last year’s renewal. The European Tour website describes the fairways as ‘wide and contoured’ and yet they depict the general playability as ‘very narrow’, which is confusing to say the least.
It’s a tree-lined track with water in-play on a number of holes and the greens ran at around 10.6 on the stimpmeter last year.
If it helps, and I’m not entirely sure it will, Tournament Director David Williams had this to say about the venue before last year’s event: “On the fourth hole we now have the option of moving the tee forward and making it driveable. It’s a stunning hole and makes for very exciting golf.
“The whole course will provide a tough challenge for the field. It’s long, but it’s not all about power and long hitting; it’s a thinking player’s course. It’s also very scenic with fantastic views, creeks, lakes and forest glens.
“There are a couple of excellent par threes which are long and over water – the seventh and the 12th holes. It’s a young course as it only opened a couple of years ago, and every year it will mature and get even better.
“It’s hilly so it will be physically demanding as well, and the greens are undulating and offer some testing pin positions.
“Then you have the club itself, which is stunning. It is very exclusive and will provide the perfect backdrop to what I am sure will be a tremendous week of golf.”
Damien McGrane, after taking the lead on day one two years ago, described the fairways as generous and Lee Westwood stated after his win: “It’s a difficult course because it goes around the hills and it’s difficult to pick the wind up; it swirls a lot.”
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 5.30am on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2012 – Bernd Wiesberger
2011 – Lee Westwood
2010 – Marcus Fraser
2009 – Thongchai Jaidee (play-off)
2008 – Graeme McDowell (play-off)
What will it take to win the Ballantine’s Championship?
Having had just two renewals at this venue, finding a way in isn’t easy, especially as the first winner here was an experienced pro and the second a rookie.
Both winners, Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger, came here in good form – Westwood had won the Indonesian Masters seven days earlier and Wiesberger, having spent time with his coach, had found improvement in all aspects of his game to finish 7th in Indonesia.
The stats don’t provide too many clues. Westwood ranked 6th for driving distance and 4th for greens hit, whilst Wiesberger ranked 6th for putting and tied 12th for greens hit. Neither men were especially accurate off the tee but both scored heavily on the par fives.
The top-tens from each renewal are littered with quality players and quality players that play well in the wind.
Is there an angle in?
Just to reiterate the above point, wind will almost certainly be a factor this week and an ability to handle breezy conditions is essential.
I could be barking up the wrong tree entirely, but visually, Blackstone reminds me of Bro Hof Slott, home of the Nordea Masters. Lee Westwood has won at both venues and Alex Noren has won the Nordea Masters and played well here, so there could be something in it.
In-Play Tactics
You can dissect the course roughly into thirds, with holes 1-6 providing a relatively gentle start and holes 14 – 18 a reasonable finish. Holes 7-13 are all tough with the possible exception of the 12th, which last year ranked the 10th hardest.
With the wind forecast to blow on each of the first two afternoons, it’s going to be tough to tee-off on the 10th in the afternoon.
Both winners here started fairly slowly. Westwood was way down in 36th and six of the pace after day one and Wiesberger was four back. The former didn’t hit the front until late on – on Sunday but the latter led from halfway.
Market Leaders
World number seven, Louis Oosthuizen, is by some distance the highest ranked player in the field now that the American duo have withdrawn and he has a habit of winning European Tour events in far-flung places but he hasn’t been in the tip-top form of late and I’m happy to dismiss him on his course debut.
Second favourite, Alex Noren, has shown a liking for the venue having finished tied 5th in 2011 and tied 7th last year. He should have fared much better two years ago, having traded at just a shade over 2.0 when he went a couple clear early on in round four before making five bogeys on his way to the clubhouse.
That woeful finish might just have left its mark as he opened up with a round of 75 twelve months ago before firing rounds of 66-69-69 over the last three days. Nobody’s played the long holes better than the Swede over the last two years and he won’t mind one jot if it gets windy but his obvious chance is reflected by his price and I’m happy to leave him out of my calculations.
The first three home last year more-or less occupy the next three spots in the market but again, if there’s value there I can’t see it. Backing Wiesberger at 130.0 last year was one the highlights of 2012 for me but even sentiment won’t allow me to take almost a hundred points less this time around. And Richie Ramsay and Victor Dubuisson (2nd and 3rd twelve months ago) both look plenty short enough to me.
Selections
Having turned my nose up at the front few in the market, a number of players a little further down the list were of interest, including Ryder Cupper Paul Lawrie, recent winner Kiradech Aphibarnrat and former Ballantine’s Champ, Marcus Fraser but in the end, I’ve decided to take it very easy from the off and play just two rank outsiders.
Having just switched coaches, Frenchman Gregory Havret is bullish about his form and he looks worth chancing this week, despite missing the cut in Spain, courtesy of a three-putt on his final hole on Friday.
He’s tweeted how Raphael Jacquelin’s win there will inspire him and watching Graeme McDowell winning stateside might spur him on too – Havret finished second to G-Mac in the US Open there just years ago.
Havret’s been in the doldrums for some time and he managed just one top-ten finish in 2012 but as it came at Bro Hof Slott, if I’m right about the possible course correlation, this could be a good week to see him get back to form.
With an impressive five under-par 67, Gareth Maybin shot the round of the day on Sunday at the Open de Espana where he ranked no worse than 25th for any aspect of his game.
He finished runner-up to Marcus Fraser in this event three years ago and his course form isn’t bad either. He was 13th in 2011 and 38th twelve months ago.
His sudden upturn in form caught my eye and reminded me of last year’s winner, Wiesberger. He won’t mind any windy weather and I thought he was worth a small play at 160.0.
Selections:
Gregory Havret @ 160.0
Gareth Maybin @ 160.0
Milesey
( betfair )
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Punchestown Festival: The big races previewed
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Ahead of the Punchestown Festival, A look through the biggest races at the meeting.
After what was a record-breaking Cheltenham Festival for Irish-trained horses at the ‘away fixture’ last month, it’s home advantage for the Irish as the Punchestown Festival ensures their jumps season ends on its traditional high. A total of 12 Grade 1 prizes will be up for grabs over the five days, the new addition to those being the Mares Hurdle on the Saturday.
For all the meeting contains five days of continually fine racing, the highlight of the whole affair could well be on Tuesday: at 17:30 Sprinter Sacre, Timeform’s highest-rated chaser since the days of Arkle, will appear in the Champion Chase. The race is marked as a highlight simply because of Sprinter Sacre’s presence (it will be his first run in Ireland), as it’s fairly unlikely that he will further inflate his monster figure of 192p. Only four rivals have been tasked with taking him on, and of them only Sizing Europe, smashed into second by Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham, could lay claim to being of genuine championship standard. It’s very difficult to see Sprinter Sacre losing his unbeaten record over fences on Tuesday but, then again, it feels like quite some time since his races have been betting heats rather than simply the must-watch spectacles they are now.
Earlier on the Tuesday card, there is a fascinating rematch between Champagne Fever and Jezki in the Champion Novice Hurdle over two miles. The pair finished first and third respectively in the Supreme at Cheltenham, with Jezki rather the forgotten horse in the race after Champagne Fever repelled strong favourite My Tent Or Yours up the hill. The feeling is that a test of speed would have given Jezki a real chance of reversing the form, but the current going of soft, heavy in places will probably play to the strengths of Champagne Fever. The pair won’t quite have it all their own way, but the fact is that Neptune runner-up Rule The World (who drops back to two miles for the first time since his hurdling debut) and County Winner Ted Veale will have to step up significantly to challenge if Jezki and Champagne Fever arrive in good heart.
The most open Grade 1 contest on Tuesday looks to be the Growise Champion Novice Chase over three miles and a furlong. Perhaps surprisingly, Willie Mullins and Graham Wylie have opted to run both National Hunt Challenge Cup winner Back In Focus and Boston Bob, the latter a late faller in the RSA Chase. They are challenged by Tofino Bay, who arguably should have beaten Back In Focus at Cheltenham; Dedigout, who arguably should have beaten Realt Mor in the Powers Gold Cup last time, and RSA runner-up Lyreen Legend. Timeform rated Boston Bob as a narrow winner of the RSA Chase, though that still leaves him with a little to find with both Back In Focus and Tofino Bay.
Wednesday sees the Gold Cup horses do battle for the Punchestown version. Although Cheltenham victor Bobs Worth won’t be there, second (Sir des Champs) third (Long Run) and sixth (Captain Chris) might be, while Aintree Bowl winner First Lieutenant is also entered. Although the group’s relative merit is probably established, Captain Chris is the one that could over-perform, his manner of jumping and his form (narrow second in the King George) both point to him faring better on a right-handed track.
The Irish Daily Mirror Novices’ Hurdle, also on the Wednesday, could be there for the taking for Willie Mullins. He trains leading contenders Pont Alexandre, Ballycasey and Inish Island, each of which comes here with very different agendas. Pont Alexandre is on something of a recovery mission after losing his unbeaten record at Cheltenham, whereas Inish Island is attempting to consolidate his position as a Grade 1 contender following a third-placed finish in the Albert Bartlett and Ballycasey is having his first try outside of everyday novices. That fact shouldn’t discredit Ballycasey, though, as the impression he’s left so far has been overwhelmingly positive.
Duel of the week comes on Thursday, with the World Series Hurdle pitting super mare Quevega against three-mile hurdling’s prince regent, Solwhit. With Quevega’s 7 lb mares’ allowance, she is narrowly ahead on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, though perhaps more pertinent is that on her typically-belated reappearance at the Cheltenham Festival she didn’t have to come near her best to land a fifth successive David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle. Solwhit, on the other hand, has been back at his very best when landing the World Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle on his last two starts. Both will be given stalking rides, so it could be fascinating to watch what may develop into a high-stakes game of ‘chicken’. That said, it’s not inconceivable that the likes of Thousand Stars, Reve de Sivola or even Zaidpour can make their mark against a pair that, although high-class, are no Big Buck’s.
The Ryanair Novice Chase over two miles could see rivalries from both the Arkle at Cheltenham and the Maghull at Aintree being renewed. Arkle runner-up Baily Green is narrowly top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings ahead of Maghull runner-up Overturn, and their renewal of rivalries could be a fascinating one. They’re far from the only contenders, however, with Grand Annual winner Alderwood (third in the Maghull), Jewson winner Benefficient and even Arkle disappointment Avrika Ligeonniere having the ability to make their presence felt.
After Quevega on Thursday, it’s the turn of another Mullins stalwart in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle on Friday, when Hurricane Fly will also be bidding to win the same race for the fourth year in a row. He is on an unbeaten run that stretches back to last year’s race, while his recent Champion Hurdle win, though not as visually impressive as he can be, showed that Hurricane Fly is still every bit as good as he’s ever been. Cheltenham runner-up Rock On Ruby could be in opposition again, though there seems nothing else among the 10 left in the race at the five-day stage that could seriously threaten an on-song Hurricane Fly.
If the present is easy enough for Hurricane Fly, the future could be much more difficult. Chief among the pretenders to his throne in 2014 looks set to be Our Conor, who is due to run in the Grade 1 four-year-old hurdle on Saturday. He achieved a figure of 165p for his Triumph Hurdle win, that being the biggest figure Timeform have ever bestowed on a juvenile, and if he’s in similar heart Saturday’s race should be little more than heightening the lofty ambitions connections will have for Our Conor, who has changed hands for a reported seven-figure sum since Cheltenham. Willie Mullins trains eight of the 10 currently entered up against Our Conor, but even the highest-rated of them will have to pull out two stones’-worth of improvement to challenge Our Conor should he arrive in the same form.