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AURORAS ENCORE often comes into his own at this time of year and did so once more to score at Aintree, taking advantage of a lenient mark to beat Cappa Bleu by nine lengths.
The 11-year-old finished second in this race last year but having been put up 11lb for his National triumph, he is now 5lb higher than the mark he raced off 12 months ago.
Bearing that in mind, and the relatively swift turnaround from Aintree, we may be best served by ignoring him and focusing on a couple that maybe had their sights set upon other targets but look to gain compensation here.
Rival d'Estruval most certainly fits that bill, with the eight-year-old having been primed for a tilt at the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
He would surely have gone close that day but for falling at the second last, contesting the lead with Tofino Bay at the time, and it is quite possible that he may have yet more to offer over fences having had just the five starts. Whether that fall has left a mark on him is impossible to tell until he takes to the track but, on all known evidence, he really ought to go close to making amends for that incident.
Another that could be worth a second chance is Fill The Power, who found circumstances transpiring against him in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter last month. The seven-year-old took to fences early this season, winning at Sedgefield in May, and has accrued plenty of experience since, shaping all the while as though an extreme test of stamina would bring out the best in him. He was finally granted that in the aforementioned Uttoxeter affair but, despite shaping as though he failed to stay, the suspicion is that he simply paid for racing too close to an overly strong pace, weakening as things drew to a conclusion.
I'm prepared to give Fill The Power another role of the dice in the hope that he can confirm the previous impressions created with regards to both his stamina and his suitability for a race of this ilk, particularly with his current price of 34.0 making plenty of appeal.
Others worth considering include both Bradley and Our Mick, with the former likely to have his day in a decent staying chase and the latter likely to stay this far, although his jumping would be a concern. Godsmejudge is another that merits a few words, particularly as he was carrying my cash at Cheltenham, and were the ground likely to resemble a bog at Ayr he would be difficult to ignore. However, against all of the Scottish stereotypes, the ground is unlikely to be atrocious and Godsmejudge had his lack of pace woefully exposed last month; a similar scenario could unfold once more.
There will be no Encore for Auroras at Ayr, of that I'm not certain but fairly sure, and we are quite happy to side against him with both Rival d'Estruval and Fill The Power. The former looks certain to go close if none the worse for his Cheltenham tumble whilst Fill The Power has always struck as the type to do well in this sort of race and is currently trading at appealing odds.
Recommended Bets
Back Rival d'Estruval 7.8
Back Fill The Power @ 34.0
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Milesy
Im all over Rival D’estruval and funnily enough my mrs has picked Fill The Power.
We’ll be at Ayr tomorrow and hope for a sunny & profitable day!!
RUNNER BY RUNNER GUIDE
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Auroras Encore often comes into his own at this time of year and did so once more to land Grand National earlier this month. Beaten just a head when second in this 12 months ago, but now 5 lb higher.
Lion Na Bearnai won 3 races last term, improving markedly to land Irish National, but has been since just once since (pulled up in Hennessy at Newbury), and doesn’t look to have much in hand from this mark.
Silver By Nature is a mud-loving front runner who won Haydock’s Grand National Trial in 2010 and 2011, though ran no sort of race in this year’s renewal returning from a 23-month absence, and has something to prove now.
Our Mick was placed for the second consecutive year in JLT Chase at Cheltenham, arguably doing well to get so close after significant mistake just as things were taking shape. Possibly hasn’t finished progressing.
Always Right finished third in this race in 2011 from 1 lb lower mark and showed first form for while when landing listed event at Kelso last time. Should go well again if in same mood.
Rival D’estruval was a useful hurdler and already much better over fences, scoring at Carlisle and Kelso. Would have gone very close but for falling 2 out in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and looks a big player.
Garleton was at least as good as ever when narrowly denied by Always Right at Kelso last month. Badly impeded when falling at Ascot since, though seeemingly found out for stamina all previous starts at 4m+.
Knockara Beau was back to form when scoring over fences at Kelso in November and has made frame all 3 completed starts since, though he remains a sketchy jumper of fences, unseating at Cheltenham last time.
Godsmejudge progressed well earlier in season, finishing excellent second in Classic Chase at Warwick, and not disgraced when third in National Hunt Chase last month. Thorough stayer who should be involved.
Rose of The Moon made a promising start over fences, winning at Wetherby and Sedgefield, though disappointed next time and jumping didn’t really hold up at Cheltenham most recently. Cheekpieces fitted here.
Problema Tic benefitted from fitting of headgear when fourth at Aintree (25f) 2 weeks ago, doing best of those who raced prominently. Stamina for this test taken on trust, though. Cheekpieces replace blinkers.
Tour Des Champs was successful 3 times over fences despite some indifferent jumping, but found out in competitive handicaps at Cheltenham and Aintree recently and is unlikely to be good enough.
Bradley was a neck second in valuable handicap at Cheltenham (27f) in November and rallied when fifth over 25f there next time. Rare poor effort at Warwick in January, but may benefit from break since.
Mister Marker is a thorough stayer who added another win to his tally here last February (25f). Better than ever after year on sidelines when fourth at Kelso last month, and sound claims if repeating that.
Rigadin de Beauchene has been better than ever this season, avoiding mistakes to win Classic Chase at Warwick and good second at Haydock (3½m) next time. Possibly not over those exertions when below par at Sandown last month.
Nuts N Bolts is a better chaser than hurdler after just 5 starts in this sphere, running well when sixth at Cheltenham last month on quicker ground than he’d previously encountered. May do better still.
Big Occasion has improved with each step up in trip this year, clearly well suited by emphasis on stamina when landing Midlands National last month. Needs to pull out more from 6 lb higher mark, but may well do so.
Relax arrived at Cheltenham in good form but disappointed in Kim Muir, his previous exertions on testing ground perhaps taking their toll. Needs to bounce back to feature here.
Fill The Power has often shaped as if an extreme test would suit and not disgraced when fifth in Midlands National recently, paying for racing closer to overly-strong pace than ideal. Worth another chance.
Neptune Equester began to look awkward over fences last season and typically made hard work of winning over hurdles at Wetherby (2¾m) last month. Stamina test will suit, but likely to find this too competitive.
Pentiffic got back to winning ways in 3m Musselburgh handicap in January, but lesser efforts since, including in blinkers last time, and unlikely that switch to cheekpieces will re-ignite the spark.
Monsieur Cadou opened his chasing account at Haydock (3½m) in November and produced career best to win over that C&D last month. 12 lb rise will make life tougher, but looks ideal type for race like this.
Cool Operator improved when scoring at Uttoxeter and Carlisle earlier in season, but ran poorly in Midlands National last time and looks handicapped to hilt at present.
Rebeccas Choice is a two-time winner this year who produced career best when second to Big Occasion in Midlands National last time. Extreme test suited that day and should go well again if over those exertions.
Lively Baron was in good form before turn of year, winning staying handicaps at Kelso and Sandown. Not the most genuine, however, and has thrown in the odd moody display, so isn’t one to place maximum faith in.
Captain Americo has produced respectable efforts when making frame 8 of last 10 starts, and can be excused poor run at Haydock 3 weeks ago without headgear (refitted here), but 7 lb out of handicap, so is passed over.
1. Rival D’estruval
2. Big Occasion
3. Fill The Power
4. Our Mick
Auroras Encore bids to become the first horse since Red Rum to land the Aintree/Scottish National double, but several of today’s rivals appear to hold stronger claims, notably Rival d’Estruval and Big Occasion, with the former just given the nod to gain compensation for falling 2 out when going well at Cheltenham last month. At bigger odds, Fill The Power may go close.
Milesey