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THEY say it's never easy picking a winner but for Milesey on Wednesday it was the BIg Easy.
Our man's Outsider of the Day won at 14-1 and his nap also romped home first – Tornonado at 1-1.
Here are his Friday's tips as he aims for more success.
RACE IN FOCUS – NEWBURY 3.05
No Jet Lag won a maiden at Lingfield and three-runner minor event at Redcar in July. Best effort when 1½ lengths second to Ashdan in minor event at Doncaster in September, and gelded after below form final start.
Ribaat cost 280,000 gns and off the mark on debut at Haydock (6f) in August. Needed a stronger gallop when third of 6 in minor event at Doncaster following month, and remains open to plenty of improvement.
Hasopop looked exposed after trying his hand in pattern company last year but made a promising return when two lengths fifth to Teophilip in listed race at Lingfield last month and has clearly trained on.
Baltic Knight won a maiden at Kempton and five-runner minor event at Salisbury last year when his best effort was a close second to Montiridge at Sandown. Needs to find some improvement to defy his opening mark.
Hay Dude was a maiden winner on debut last September (7f, heavy), and showed improved form on last month's reappearance when length second of six to Prophets Pride in handicap at Kempton. Looks on a fair mark.
Mutazamen's best effort in four starts last season came when winning 6f maiden at Newmarket, making all. Capable of better but retained jockey chooses Ribaat.
So Beloved is a well-related colt who was impressive when beating Tawhid in the mud at Salisbury in October. Flopped next time after pulling hard, but appears to have been given a big chance by the handicapper.
Kalicamix bettered previous efforts when winning a pair of AW claimers at Deauville last August and while well held there since wasn't disgraced in a listed race last month. Opposable on turf, however.
Beedee won a 6f maiden at Chepstow on debut and placed in a trio of nurseries in latter half of the year. Looks more exposed than most, though, and vulnerable to progressive sorts on return.
Tipping Over was a ready winner of a 6f maiden at Newmarket in June, and held her own in better company afterwards. Seemed to have reached her limit after nine starts, though, and others preferred on reappearance.
Here Comes When is an expensive purchase who overcame greenness to win seven-runner maiden at Salisbury on debut, and better than result when fourth in minor event at Newmarket following month. Hooded now, and merits respect.
1. So Beloved
2. Ribaat
3. Here Comes When
Verdict: So Beloved needs to settle much better than on his final start if he's to defy his opening mark but his previous win was replete with promise and it's worth taking that chance. Ribaat, Here Comes When and Hay Dude head the list of dangers.
AYR – PATENT/TRIXIE
1.10 Ayr
DISCOVERY BAY 4/6 BET365
Successful in two-hurdle races at 2m on good and soft ground, also won a flat race in February. Won on his latest outing in a hurdle race when 6-4 fav at Wetherby over 2m (good) earlier this month, beating Yes Daddy by 12l. Has won twice at Wetherby this season.
1.40 Ayr
JONNY DELTA 10/11 BET365
Successful in a hurdle race and a NH flat race at 2m on soft and heavy ground. Won on his latest outing in a hurdle race when 13-8 fav over this course and distance (soft) last month, beating Rhymers Ha' by 3l.
3.15 Ayr
EASTLAKE 2/1 BET365
Has won two hurdle races, a NH flat race and five chases from 2m to 2m 1f on ground varying from good to firm to heavy. A winner at 4-1 in a chase at Newton Abbot over 2m (soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Shangani by 1l. Has won three times this season.
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
4.25 Ayr
LOCKED INTHEPOCKET 10/1 BET365
He has won two hurdle races and two chases at 2m 4f on ground varying from good to heavy. Well beaten at 7-1 behind Desert Cry when last of five on his latest outing in a chase here over 2m (heavy) in January. Has won at Musselburgh and Perth this season.
LUCKY 15
2.50 Fontwell
OURMANMASSINI 8/1 BET365
A winner of a NH flat race at 2m 2f on good to soft ground. Fell at the last when 7-2 at Kempton over 2m (good to soft) in a hurdle race won by Lordofthehouse last month on his latest outing.
4.0 Fontwell
MY BOY GINGER 12/1 BET365
Yet to place in three starts over hurdles. Well beaten at 50-1 behind Chris Pea Green when last of six on his latest outing in a maiden hurdle race at Lingfield over 2m (heavy) in January.
2.30 Newbury
CONTRIBUTER 4/1 BET365
Won on his latest outing when 15-8fav at Wolverhampton over 1m 1f in November last year, beating Thouwra by 21/2l.
5.15 Newbury
MIRZA 5/1 BET365
Winner of six races from 5f to 6f on ground varying from good to soft. Well beaten at 14-1 behind Jack Dexter when 19th of 21 on his latest outing at Doncaster over 5f (soft) in October last year.
NAP
6:20 Southwell
DOUBLE MEAD
Comes into this in terrific form, having followed up a couple of wins between the flags with an impressive hunters' chase success at Wetherby last week, and she will take plenty of beating. Winner of a hurdle race and five chases from 2m 2f to 3m 1f on ground varying from good to firm to good to soft. Won on her latest outing in a chase when 4-6 fav at Wetherby over 3m 1f (good to soft) earlier this month, beating Melua Maid by 21l. Has won three times this season.
BIG PUNT
7.0 Bath
RUNNING DEER 5/1 BET365
After showing promise in her juvenile campaign she looked a slightly unlucky loser on her only outing last year and could be nicely treated making her handicap debut here off a mark of 74. Placed once in four starts. Third of eight behind Ruscello beaten 3/4l at 4-1 fav on her latest outing at Lingfield over 1m 2f in May last year.
PUNT OF THE DAY
4.15 Newbury
KAYEF 25/1 BET365
A winner at 1m 4f on good to soft ground but that win was over two years ago. Finished 7l behind All My Heart when sixth of 11 at 25-1 on his latest flat outing at Haydock over 2m (heavy) in October '11.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
DUGS
—–
so all eyes will be on Romford on Friday night for what promises to be a pulsating sprint final (21:24).
Farloe Barracuda performed miracles to get himself out of trouble on the run up and somehow grab a first bend lead last week, and after a smash and grab job in the heats, Barrie Draper’s runner remains the one to beat given that determination to win despite the presence of speedy rails seeking Garryglass Rodge alongside.
If there is to be an upset, Mottos Impact looks the one most likely to provide it as Seamus Cahill’s runner – like the aforementioned runners, also unbeaten – showed marked improvement in the semis – and with Falkland Tyson unlikely to trap as quickly and also looking for the inside, the Keston kennel representative might just be able to trap ahead. He is worthy of a saver.
Hometown Honey set the bench mark high when romping home in her heat of the Dual Distance Trophy (21:06) and looks right back to her best. Likely to poach an early lead again, she might be able to shoot clear, but Aero Rebel will be more at home over the 750m trip in the final, where she has an unbeaten record of six from six, and at around twice the price is the logical selection.
No fancy prices will be on offer for Droopys Lorenzo in the Hurdle final (20:50) but likewise there is little point in taking on Dean Childs’ Coventry Champion Hurdle winner, who looks set to skate home from his favoured trap six berth after a rapid fire heat win on Monday.
Elsewhere on the night, Millwards Daisy (21:40) rates the best bet on the card and is confidently taken to make all and complete a quick fire CD hat-trick.
Courts Ad Stanley (20:34) has an excellent draw outside a rails seeking rival and can put a couple of reverses behind him in a very winnable maiden, while Islas Scolari (22:26), after an impressive off the pace effort to win over 575m last week, can repeat the dose in what appears a weaker race.
Millwards Daisy 21:40 Rom Fri
Aero Rebel 21:06 Rom Fri
Milesey
IPL CRICKET – FRIDAY 19TH APRIL
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kings XI Punjab
Start Time: 15:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Captain Kumar Sangakkara dropped himself from the starting XI after a poor run of scores but the bold move looked to have backfired when his side struggled to 119-8 against the Warriors on Wednesday. However, the Sunriser’s bowlers forced an unlikely collapse, with Amit Mishra taking a record third IPL hat trick in an 11 run win.
As entertaining as that win may have been, Sangakkara will know that his side’s batting is still weak and the big question is whether he will come back into the side for this game. His replacement, Quinton De Kock, is a huge talent who has a T20 century to his name in 2013 and deserves a chance in this squad, so the skipper may stay in the dugout.
Kings XI Punjab
After Adam Gilchrist’s struggles in this year’s IPL, he could do worse than to follow Sangakkara’s lead and sit this one out. However, his compatriot Shaun Marsh continues to miss out with a hamstring problem and therefore there is no obvious replacement for Gilchrist at the top of the order.
Fortunately for Kings XI fans, another veteran Australian – David Hussey – has been in fine form so far and while David Miller made a modest 20 in their win over KKR, the batting line up looks a lot stronger with the 23 year old South African included.
The key to this game lies in a strong Sunrisers bowling attack against a suspect Kings XI batting order and if Hyderabad are to guarantee a win, their own batting must improve.
Venue and Conditions
In two matches at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium so far, the average score has been 128 and with two of the weaker sides on show, the totals are unlikely to exceed that by any great margin. Certainly 150 should be a winning target for anyone taking first knock.
A little cloud cover is expected so dew could play a part on second innings, while temperatures could even reach the low forties centigrade at the start of play.
Match Odds
Sunrisers are favourites at 1.83 for the win with Kings XI as the outside bet at 2.12. This is arguably harder to predict than any IPL game so far but I expect a better batting display from Hyderabad which will be backed up by their impressive set of bowlers.
Top Hyderabad Batsman
Sangakkara remains favourite at 3.50 but the question over selection suggests that there is a better alternative with stand in skipper Cameron White. White has yet to show the consistent batting form that took him into last year’s list of top ten batters but he is due a major contribution and is the better bet here at 4.50.
Top Punjab Batsman
Adam Gilchrist has drifted for the first time after a string of low scores but even at 4.30 he should be avoided. Meanwhile, David Hussey now takes the favourites berth at 3.50 after a consistent run of scores but Miller is a huge talent who impressed for Yorkshire in the Champions League and could give you the return here at 4.50.
Recommended Bet
Back Cameron White to top score for Hyderabad at 4.50
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FORMULA ONE – BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
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Mark Webber must have broken a mirror, run over a black cat and then walked under a ladder when he was getting ready for this Formula One season. How else do you explain his wretched luck so far?
In Australia he took second place in qualifying, only for a software bug from the new in-car computer system supplied by McLaren to ruin his start; In Malaysia he would have won, but then Sebastian Vettel defied team orders and zoomed past while he followed instructions to save fuel; and then in China he ran out of fuel on his qualifying lap and started last, and a wheel fell off in the middle of the race.
Now his arrival in Bahrain for the 200th Grand Prix of his career has already suffered a hitch – he will face a three place penalty on the starting grid as punishment for his shunt with Toro Rosso’s Jean-Eric Vergne in Shanghai. Otherwise it’s all going ever so well.
At 36 Webber is facing increasing questions about his place in the Red Bull team. It went on all last year, but he eventually signed a deal for another 12 months. Now his wretched start has brought the debate on his future to the surface again. The pit lane has been full of rumours that he could walk away and join Porsche to do endurance sports car racing.
The Aussie has vehemently denied that. But he knows the very best way he can underline his commitment to his current job is to put a stop to all the hard-luck stories right now and come up with a big drive in Bahrain.
Red Bull as a team had a nightmare in China. Maybe they got a bit complacent after their 1-2 in the previous race, maybe it was just more bad luck. But either way it wasn’t only Webber who had a catalogue of problems. Vettel got his qualifying all wrong too.
Yet it finished up with the reigning world champion nose-to-tail with Lewis Hamilton on the final lap, and even Hamilton admitted that if the race had been any longer Vettel would have stolen his podium finish. So we know the cars are still strong. And a week on from the Shanghai debacle the team will surely be more focused then ever to put things right.
That makes Red Bull to be the winning car at between 3.05 and 3.7 in the early market the obvious value for this weekend’s race. Vettel proved last year by winning the race that he could deal with the sand that can turn a relatively slow circuit into a tricky track, and that the cars can deal with the intense heat.
Bahrain is a circuit where losing places on the grid is not as big a handicap as elsewhere. As Pirelli’s motorsport director Paul Hembery explained: “The track evolution is very hard to predict, depending on how much sand is blown onto the circuit. There will be plenty of scope for different race strategies which can allow drivers who have not qualifed as well as they hoped to recover.” On that basis Webber at 4.7 for a podium finish will be my other bet for the weekend. Surely he’s due some good fortune?
back Red Bull to be the winning car between 3.05 and 3.7
back Webber at 4.7 for a podium finish
—————————————
Boxing Betting: Back Cleverly to emerge victorious on the judges’ scorecards
Cleverly, now 26 years old, has a tendency to get a little hot-headed before a fight and to sometimes box carelessly in his bouts. He’s listed as 6ft 1in, appears taller and rangier, yet he rarely uses his height and reach to maximum advantage, preferring to fight in-close and exchange with boxers. This leaves him open to being hit too regularly and his response – often to grin and mug to show he isn’t hurt – might prove his cojones, but is unlikely to impress judges, fans or discourage opponents.
He was drawn into a war with bitter domestic rival Tony Bellew and while his stamina and workrate saw him edge to a decision, he came uncomfortably close to losing his title and unbeaten record (currently 25-0 with 12 knockouts). Robin Krasniqi, his opponent at Wembley, does not appear to have the power to take advantage of Cleverly’s occasional over-eagerness to engage. He has 15 knockouts in his 41 fights and the 26-year-old’s record is less a ‘who’s-who’ of light-heavyweights and more a ‘who-the-hell-are-they?’.
Still, the Kosovo-born German is not without his skills. He has quick hands, good movement, a tasty uppercut and has had a tough route to the top. He turned professional as a teenager with precious little amateur experience, then lost two of his first three fights. He’s won all of his 38 fights since then and will know this is is his big opportunity to break into the big time. Grit and determination will not be lacking.
That said, Cleverly should still win. He has home advantage, has good hand speed of his own, is the bigger boxer and – at his best – a classier one, too. What will be interesting is if Cleverly can box to a plan and break Krasniqi down slowly, rather than looking to entertain the crowd from the off and leaving himself open to counters. It will be good practise if he does, as Bernard Hopkins is the prize being dangled in front of Cleverly for later this year. The Philadelphia veteran spent his teenage years in prison rather than university, but he has a PhD in boxing and Cleverly will need to smarten up his act against Krasniqi to prove he belongs at the elite levels of the sport.
Dereck Chisora is – like Hopkins – never short of a quote. The British heavyweight who returns from his summer 2012 loss to David Haye on the undercard has said he’ll dedicate a victory over his Argentine foe to the late Margaret Thatcher. That looks pretty much nailed-on, as Hector Alfredo Avila has the look of a fighter who wouldn’t have stood up well to one swing from a prime Maggie’s handbag. In his 33 fights, the 38-year-old has 12 losses (eight via stoppage) and has been beaten on all seven occasions he’s fought outside of his native Argentina.
Also on the undercard, speedy southpaw and European lightweight champ Liam Walsh takes on the remains of 35-year-old former champion Scott Harrison. If former champion Harrison were in his pomp, he’d likely outmuscle and breakdown Walsh. However he looked laboured in his 2012 comeback bouts and – as Ricky Hatton can confirm – alcohol problems, age and long breaks out of the ring do damage that can’t be hidden by a fresh new six-pack.
Recommended Bet
A hat-trick of British winners in the form of Cleverly, Chisora and Walsh is the sensible bet. Betting on how a fight ends is always more risky, but despite Cleverly’s regular eagerness to search for a knockout, Krasniqi looks a durable sort. I’d tip maths graduate Cleverly to be hearing numbers again at the end of this one as he listens to a points victory being announced.
Back Cleverly to win by DEC/TD @ 2.22
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SNOOKER
——-
Betfair World Snooker Championship Tips: One player to back from each quarter
Picking one player from each section of the draw for the Betfair World Championship, which starts on Saturday…
Back Ronnie O’Sullivan @ 7.2
This first section of the draw for the Betfair World Championship contains both of last year’s finalists, plus the man who won three of the previous five renewals. If seedings go to plan, Ronnie O’Sullivan will face fellow four-time winner John Higgins in the quarter-final, but despite doubts about his lack of competitive snooker, I’m much more confident about the former reaching that stage than the latter.
Higgins is still potentially the best match player in the business, as illustrated by his early season form, but hasn’t been potting long balls. He normally takes time to find his rhythm in a tournament and both Mark Davis and probable next opponent Stuart Bingham are both well up to testing him.
All of which is good news for Ronnie, whom I’m expecting to turn up well-prepared. Ronnie’s natural talent should swiftly blow away any cobwebs and if he’s even at 80% of his best, Higgins is the only player in this section realistically capable of stopping him before the semis. Marcus Campbell should be easily swept aside and, while 2012 runner-up Ali Carter looks dangerous on paper, their head-to-head to record suggests otherwise. In their last 15 encounters, Ronnie’s only defeat came in the relatively meaningless best-of-five formatted Championship League.
Back Martin Gould @ 130.0
After backing the favourite in the first quarter, a rank outsider here balances the book. Only two players in this section begin the tournament shorter than 50.0 and neither Judd Trump or Shaun Murphy are particularly reliable. I’ve successfully opposed Trump in every tournament this year and have no intention to abandon that strategy. He’ll win a world title one day for sure, but right now, the ‘Juddernaut’ still plays like a novice and lacks a ‘Plan B’ for when the long pots don’t deliver chances. Assuming he gets past Dominic Dale, Trump could be a good odds-on lay against the winner between Matthew Stevens and Marco Fu.
Murphy meanwhile has drawn arguably the strongest qualifier in Martin Gould. While the 2005 champion has won all six of their previous encounters, four of those matches were close and Gould has improved. The reigning Betfair Snooker Shootout champion has struck me as the type to surprise one day at the Crucible ever since Neil Robertson pulled off a miraculous comeback in their 2010 second round match here. If Gould can upset the odds against Murphy, I’d make him favourite against either Graeme Dott or Peter Ebdon in the next round.
Back Neil Robertson @ 7.6
Nobody has been more consistent than Robertson this year and, if it wasn’t for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory several times, the 2010 champion would likely head to Sheffield as a standout favourite at much shorter odds. He looked set to challenge for a second title 12 months ago, before losing to a peak-form O’Sullivan in a quarter-final that many regarded as the real final. None of Robert Milkins, Ricky Walden or Michael Holt look remotely capable of stopping him reach at least the same stage.
That stage could get tricky if the seedings go to plan and Robertson faces Welsh Open champion Stephen Maguire, although our man would still be favourite. In order to get there, though, Maguire will need to eliminate twice former champion Mark Williams, which may turn out less straightforward than recent form would suggest. Williams will know next season’s revamped qualification system means this could plausibly be his last Crucible appearance and could well find some form.
Back Mark Allen @ 16.0
If there’s a ‘Group of Death’, this quarter is it. Mark Selby, Ding Junhui and Mark Allen are all frontline candidates for the title, yet only one can reach the semis. My money has been on Allen for months and nothing has dented my confidence. Allen’s snooker since the turn of the year has been consistently top-class and with a little luck at crucial times, could have delivered multiple titles, as opposed to just a successful defence of his World Open title. As explained in greater detail here, Allen has already proved his mettle at this venue and is a better player now.
That isn’t to question the claims of either Selby or Ding. The latter will surely beat Alan McManus in his opener to set up what could be a classic encounter with Allen. One word of caution regarding Selby, however, is a habit of making hard work for himself. His route contains two of the most capable qualifiers, Matthew Selt and Jack Lisowski, so don’t rule out an early upset.
My staking plan is :
£100 on Ronnie @ 7.2
£100 on Robertson @ 7.6
£40 on Allen @ 16.0
£10 on Gould @ 130.0
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£250 in total
————–
Milesey
Discovery Bay (13:10) was fairly useful on the Flat for Charlie Swan and he’s made a fine start over hurdles for Brian Ellison, scoring twice at Wetherby over two miles in recent weeks, dotting up for the most recent of those victories. The prospect of heavy ground today should hold no fears (his first success at Wetherby came with plenty of ease in the ground) and he’s a confident selection to land the hat-trick.
While the presence of Cool Baranca, who was successful in this corresponding event 12 months ago and who has hinted at a return to form in recent weeks, is noted, Dianne Sayer’s mare may have to play second fiddle this time around to Jonny Delta (13:40), who won a bumper here on debut in 2011 before showing fair form on the Flat, and got off the mark over hurdles when landing a gamble in a course-and-distance handicap last month. Well on top at the line that day, he remains unexposed in this sphere and can score again from a 9-lb higher mark.
All six runners competing in a good-looking renewal of the three mile novices’ handicap hurdle have winning form this term, none more so than four-time-winner Seymour Eric, who posted a career-best despite failing in his quest for a five-timer at Haydock last month. His chance is respected, though he may struggle to give weight and a beating to Walkabout Creek (14:10), who showed improved form to land a pair of 2½ mile Sedgefield events last month and doesn’t look overburdened with a 9 lb weight rise.
All at Ayr
***********
Back Discovery Bay @ 2.14 in the 13:10
Back Jonny Delta @ 2.34 in the 13:40
Back Walkabout Creek @ 3.65 in the 14:10
Milesey
( betfair )
good luck milesy im on your lucky 15 hopefully win some money for footy on saturday
Here’s today’s market movers from the afternoon meetings at Ayr, Fontwell, and Newbury…
Ayr
13:10
Plus Jamais 18.0 out to 30.0
13:40
Red Inca 5.8 in to 4.3
14:10
Walkabout Creek 2.88 out to 3.8
Talkin Sense 11.0 in to 7.6
14:40
Mr Moonshine 11.0 in to 7.8
15:50
Micro Mission 5.9 in to 4.7
16:25
Locked Inthepocket 8.6 in to 6.4
16:55
Hellorboston 7.0 out to 11.5
Regal Diamond 12.5 in to 5.9
Fontwell
13.50
Definite Lady 1.44 out to 1.95
14:20
Theatrical Star 2.26 out to 2.52
14:50
Occasionally Yours 3.6 out to 4.8
Ourmanmassini 8.0 in to 6.0
15:25
Royaume Bleu 9.6 out to 7.4
17:05
Tarraco 11.0 in to 8.2
Newbury
14:00
At A Clip 6.6 in to 4.4
14:30
Contributer 4.6 in to 3.35
15:05
Ribaat 4.5 in to 3.55
So Beloved 5.0 out to 5.8
Hasopop 10.0 in to 7.6
Here Comes When 7.0 out to 10.0
16:15
Sign Manual 6.8 in to 5.1
Lieutenant Miller 6.0 in to 4.9
17:15
Heeraat 3.5 out to 4.1
Milesey
HORSE RACING TIPS
******************
FRIDAY 19TH APRIL 2013
***********************
NEWBURY 3.05
1. So Beloved
2. Ribaat
3. Here Comes When
AYR – PATENT / TRIXIE
———————-
1:10 AYR
DISCOVERY BAY 4/6 BET365
1:40 AYR
JONNY DELTA 10/11 BET365
3:15 AYR
EASTLAKE 2/1 BET365
OUTSIDER
4:25 AYR
LOCKED INTHEPOCKET 10/1 BET365
LUCKY 15
———
2:50 FONTWELL
OURMANMASSINI 8/1 BET365
4:00 FONTWELL
MY BOY GINGER 12/1 BET365
2:30 NEWBURY
CONTRIBUTER 4/1 BET365
5:15 NEWBURY
MIRZA 5/1 BET365
** NAP ** NAP **
6:20 SOUTHWELL
DOUBLE MEAD
BIG PUNT
7:00 BATH
RUNNING DEER 5/1 BET365
PUNT OF THE DAY
4:15 NEWBURY
KAYEF 25/1 BET365
Milesey
*************************************************************
BATH JACKPOT
————-
With over £1 million expected to be in the Jackpot pool at Bath this evening, I couldn’t resist having a crack at landing the spoils…
17:00 – Given the difficulties we are going to encounter in the next five legs I’ve leapt at the chance to save lines here, although an opening leg banker in a big field maiden is admittedly a risky proposition. The one we are going to place our faith in is Beau Nash, trained by Richard Hannon, who showed plenty to work on when finishing second at Leicester, beating three subsequent winners, and he ought to put that experience to good use and get off the mark here.
17:30 – This looks very difficult indeed and we are going to stick four in, starting with current favourite Zhiggy’s Stardust who put up a decent effort when third to Cheworee at Newbury when last seen in May. The pick on form is Shore Step, who has been gelded since his final start of last season, so he also makes the cut, as does Faluka, trained by Paul Cole, who showed a bit on debut at Windsor and has the scope to do better after a break. The one debutant we are going to include is Ovatory, who cost 220,000 gns as a yearling, makes plenty of appeal on paper and figures relatively prominently in the market at present.
18:00 – Arguably the two most interesting ones in here are non-runners, leaving us with a bit of a head-scratcher. I don’t fancy Lager Time on his Turf debut, particularly as concerns with regards to his temperament are beginning to creep in, and Buy Art needs to bounce back from a lesser effort last time. The best way forward may be to side with three, namely Hot Secret, Oscars Journey and Shrimpton, in the hope that one of them hits the mark.
18:30 – I’ve had a lot of time for My Propeller throughout her career and harbour no desire to desert her here, although the ground as it is at present (good to soft) may not be ideal. Bearing that in mind we’re also going to include Jwala, who landed the hat-trick with success at Goodwood in August and improved another chunk when finding only Sole Power too strong at Doncaster the following month.
19:00 – Astra Hall was the first name down on the sheet there but, with that one being a non-runner, we will take Running Deer as a substitute. The four-year-old, trained by Sir Henry Cecil, remains unexposed after just four starts and could well be suited by the greater emphasis on stamina this track presents than when trying a mile and a quarter for the first time at Lingfield; strong morning support in the market for the filly also has to be noted. Moment In Time is another fairly lightly-raced filly who is interesting here as, on her first start of last term, she scored at Lingfield. The four-year-old improved from that point, capping her season with a fine effort in defeat when second to Lady Loch, who won at Pontefract recently, and she ought to go close here from a mark just 2 lb higher.
19:30 – Our Folly, Ancient Times and Dubara Reef are the three that will hopefully make a decent fist of getting us across the line, if we have made it to this point unscathed. The first mentioned represents the in-form Stuart Kittow and ran well on almost every start last year whilst Ancient Times, who was struggling in handicaps when last seen on the Flat in 2011, has been running well over jumps of late and is in with a shout if translating that form. Dubara Reef isn’t the most reliable of performers but has shown some signs of encouragement the last twice and, with his Redcar form having received a boost, he could just surprise a few.
Selections:
17:00 – 1
17:30 – 2, 7, 9, 16
18:00 – 3, 6, 7
18:30 – 4, 6
19:00 – 2, 6
19:30 – 2, 14, 16
= 144 lines
Milesey
( betfair )
Ayr 16:25 Pension Plan, 11/2
Wexford 17:10 Rafi De Triana, 3/1
Wexford 17:40 Barneys Honour, 4/1
Southwell 17:50 Fiftyonefiftyone, 5/2
Bath 18:30 Caledonia Lady, 3/1
£0.90 Trebles – (Min Return £50)
£0.90 4-folds – (Min Return £500)
£0.75 e/w Accum – (Returns £4088)
Total Stake £15
All the big movers ahead of an evening’s racing at Bath, Southwell and Wexford…
Bath
17:00
Beldale Memory 5.40 out to 9.20
Capitulate 12.50 in to 7.20
17:30
Ovatory 11.0 in to 8.0
Burnt Fingers 11.0 in to 8.60
18:00
Shrimpton 9.0 in to 4.40
Space Artist 5.50 out to 7.40
18:30
Caledonia Lady 6.17 in to 3.75
Jwala 4.55 out to 5.80
Swan Song 18.50 in to 9.40
19:00
Running Deer 4.80 in to 3.0
Moment In Time 3.98 out to 4.90
19:30
Our Folly 6.32 in to 4.80
Southwell
16:50
Haar 3.53 in to 2.72
Avenging Ace 9.22 in to 6.80
Ballyboker Boy 6.02 out to 8.20
17:50
Fiftyonefiftyone 5.90 in to 3.15
18:50
Makari 3.55 in to 2.76
19:20
Riddlestown 6.82 in to 4.80
19:50
Reverb 3.00 out to 4.20
Elmore Black 8.0 in to 5.10
Wexford
16:40
Not For You 3.50 in to 2.52
All Day Long 4.50 out to 5.40
17:10
Rafi De Triana 3.08 out to 3.85
Milesey
RUNNER BY RUNNER GUIDE TO THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL
———————————————–
Auroras Encore often comes into his own at this time of year and did so once more to land Grand National earlier this month. Beaten just a head when second in this 12 months ago, but now 5 lb higher.
Lion Na Bearnai won 3 races last term, improving markedly to land Irish National, but has been since just once since (pulled up in Hennessy at Newbury), and doesn’t look to have much in hand from this mark.
Silver By Nature is a mud-loving front runner who won Haydock’s Grand National Trial in 2010 and 2011, though ran no sort of race in this year’s renewal returning from a 23-month absence, and has something to prove now.
Our Mick was placed for the second consecutive year in JLT Chase at Cheltenham, arguably doing well to get so close after significant mistake just as things were taking shape. Possibly hasn’t finished progressing.
Always Right finished third in this race in 2011 from 1 lb lower mark and showed first form for while when landing listed event at Kelso last time. Should go well again if in same mood.
Rival D’estruval was a useful hurdler and already much better over fences, scoring at Carlisle and Kelso. Would have gone very close but for falling 2 out in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and looks a big player.
Garleton was at least as good as ever when narrowly denied by Always Right at Kelso last month. Badly impeded when falling at Ascot since, though seeemingly found out for stamina all previous starts at 4m+.
Knockara Beau was back to form when scoring over fences at Kelso in November and has made frame all 3 completed starts since, though he remains a sketchy jumper of fences, unseating at Cheltenham last time.
Godsmejudge progressed well earlier in season, finishing excellent second in Classic Chase at Warwick, and not disgraced when third in National Hunt Chase last month. Thorough stayer who should be involved.
Rose of The Moon made a promising start over fences, winning at Wetherby and Sedgefield, though disappointed next time and jumping didn’t really hold up at Cheltenham most recently. Cheekpieces fitted here.
Problema Tic benefitted from fitting of headgear when fourth at Aintree (25f) 2 weeks ago, doing best of those who raced prominently. Stamina for this test taken on trust, though. Cheekpieces replace blinkers.
Tour Des Champs was successful 3 times over fences despite some indifferent jumping, but found out in competitive handicaps at Cheltenham and Aintree recently and is unlikely to be good enough.
Bradley was a neck second in valuable handicap at Cheltenham (27f) in November and rallied when fifth over 25f there next time. Rare poor effort at Warwick in January, but may benefit from break since.
Mister Marker is a thorough stayer who added another win to his tally here last February (25f). Better than ever after year on sidelines when fourth at Kelso last month, and sound claims if repeating that.
Rigadin de Beauchene has been better than ever this season, avoiding mistakes to win Classic Chase at Warwick and good second at Haydock (3½m) next time. Possibly not over those exertions when below par at Sandown last month.
Nuts N Bolts is a better chaser than hurdler after just 5 starts in this sphere, running well when sixth at Cheltenham last month on quicker ground than he’d previously encountered. May do better still.
Big Occasion has improved with each step up in trip this year, clearly well suited by emphasis on stamina when landing Midlands National last month. Needs to pull out more from 6 lb higher mark, but may well do so.
Relax arrived at Cheltenham in good form but disappointed in Kim Muir, his previous exertions on testing ground perhaps taking their toll. Needs to bounce back to feature here.
Fill The Power has often shaped as if an extreme test would suit and not disgraced when fifth in Midlands National recently, paying for racing closer to overly-strong pace than ideal. Worth another chance.
Neptune Equester began to look awkward over fences last season and typically made hard work of winning over hurdles at Wetherby (2¾m) last month. Stamina test will suit, but likely to find this too competitive.
Pentiffic got back to winning ways in 3m Musselburgh handicap in January, but lesser efforts since, including in blinkers last time, and unlikely that switch to cheekpieces will re-ignite the spark.
Monsieur Cadou opened his chasing account at Haydock (3½m) in November and produced career best to win over that C&D last month. 12 lb rise will make life tougher, but looks ideal type for race like this.
Cool Operator improved when scoring at Uttoxeter and Carlisle earlier in season, but ran poorly in Midlands National last time and looks handicapped to hilt at present.
Rebeccas Choice is a two-time winner this year who produced career best when second to Big Occasion in Midlands National last time. Extreme test suited that day and should go well again if over those exertions.
Lively Baron was in good form before turn of year, winning staying handicaps at Kelso and Sandown. Not the most genuine, however, and has thrown in the odd moody display, so isn’t one to place maximum faith in.
Captain Americo has produced respectable efforts when making frame 8 of last 10 starts, and can be excused poor run at Haydock 3 weeks ago without headgear (refitted here), but 7 lb out of handicap, so is passed over.
1. Rival D’estruval
2. Big Occasion
3. Fill The Power
VERDICT: Auroras Encore bids to become the first horse since Red Rum to land the Aintree/Scottish National double, but several of today’s rivals appear to hold stronger claims, notably Rival d’Estruval and Big Occasion, with the former just given the nod to gain compensation for falling 2 out when going well at Cheltenham last month. At bigger odds, Fill The Power may go close.
Milesey
( betfair )
Punchestown News:
Sprinter Sacre heads to Ireland
Punchestown News:
Sprinter Sacre heads to Ireland
Punchestown News:
Sprinter Sacre heads to Ireland
Milesey
milesey how confident are you that running deer will win
milesey it run like a deer ahaha look like its legs fell off
Yeah i saw it, was terrible…… it’s a good job i lumped on my nap : NAP 6:20 Southwell DOUBLE MEAD @ 4/6.
Milesey
good stuff milesey mate