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3.05 LEOPARDSTOWN
DECLARATION OF WAR 1-1 Bet365
He has won four times from 7f to 1m 3f on soft – heavy ground and on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 11-10fav in the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at Dundalk over 1m 3f in October last year, beating Along Came Casey by 1/2l.
4.15 LEOPARDSTOWN
BATTLE OF MARENGO 4-6 Bet365
He has won three times from 7f to 1m on ground varying from good to soft – heavy. Won on his latest outing when 4-9fav in the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes at Curragh over 1m (soft – heavy) in September last year, beating Orgilgo Bay by 3 1/2l.
3.10 WINCANTON
COME ON ANNIE 9-2 Bet365
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m and 2m 1f on soft and heavy ground. Beaten 1l by Nicene Creed when second of 8 at 3-1fav on her latest outing in a hurdle race at Chepstow over 2m (heavy) last month. Has won at Taunton and Ffos Las this season.
4.20 WINCANTON
JUMP CITY 11-8 Bet365
He has won two hurdle races and two chases from 2m to 2m 3f on good and soft ground. Beaten 3 1/2l by Hunt Ball when second of 6 at 11-4 on his latest outing in a chase at Taunton over 2m 3f (good to firm) earlier this month. Has won at Exeter and Newton Abbot this season.
RACE IN FOCUS – WINCANTON 3.45
Qualviro was a winning hurdler in Ireland and added to tally for this yard back over timber at Ludlow in February. Race worked out better than expected, so disappointing he couldn’t do better at Ffos Las latest.
Den of Iniquity ended short spell with Ferdy Murphy in the perfect fashion back hurdling at Perth in April. In touch when unseating three out at Newbury last month but failed to build on it next time.
Brough Academy won a Kilbeggan bumper for Joanna Morgan and only second start for this yard when taking 2¼m novice hurdle in January 2012. Things not gone to plan since, though, and tried in a visor now.
Sparrow William Hill improved when winning pair of handicap hurdles here in January 2011. Yet to fire back from an absence, though, and hopes resting on the return to this track reviving his fortunes.
Rigolo Ville won a bumper in France and also placed in a maiden hurdle there back in 2010. Some promise on first two starts for this yard but recent handicap debut was underwhelming.
Dalavar made the frame all three starts in bumpers but not knocked about over hurdles. Disappointing on handicap debut last month but too soon to write him off and one to consider in this field.
Be My Light takes plenty of driving but consistency hard to knock, making the frame regularly over hurdles/fences since a Uttoxeter success in April 2011. Minor placing might be his best hope.
Hatters River was no great shakes in Irish points but hinted at promise in novice hurdles and improved efforts in handicaps the last twice. Remains open to improvement and no surprise to see him go well.
Only Vintage is a veteran who won at Folkestone last January, but out of sorts this year. Lowly mark to try and exploit back over hurdles but comes with more than his share of risks attached.
Kastani Beach was modest in bumpers/over hurdles in Ireland but won a point in October and good-placed efforts in handicap hurdles the last twice. Up in the weights but should continue to go well.
Old Way won maiden hurdle in the mud at Hereford (17f) in early 2011 but hasn’t kicked on since sent handicapping. Should run his race but likely to find a few of these too strong.
Mystic Appeal was a fair maiden hurdler last term. Shaped quite well when fifth in C&D handicap on reappearance, but gone the wrong way since. Hard to know what to expect but market support would look encouraging.
1. Hatters River
2. Dalavar
3. Kastani Beach
Verdict: Hatters River has been knocking on the door of late and can gain a first success. Of the remainder there may be more to come from Dalavar, while Kastani Beach has run with credit the last twice and has place claims once again.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Lewis Hamilton has secured his first pole position in a Mercedes and looks to have a great chance in Shanghai.
His motivation and reasons for moving from McLaren to Mercedes have been debated at length since Lewis Hamilton announced he was to join the Silver Arrows this season, but in qualifying for the Chinese Grand Prix Hamilton secured pole position to underline the improvement Mercedes has made this year.
It is clearly a track which suits both Hamilton and Mercedes – Lewis has won here twice and finished on the podium in each of the past three seasons, whilst Nico Rosberg won his and the team’s first race here last year from pole position. Hamilton is therefore well-placed to repeat the trick and his odds of victory at 3.25 offer better value than they might if Sebastian Vettel or Fernando Alonso were occupying pole position. If you’re predicting a weekend of Hamilton domination, back him at 5.5 to take the win from pole position and set fastest lap on the way.
Alongside Lewis is Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen, who didn’t look especially fast throughout qualifying but banged in a time when it mattered most, just over a quarter of a second behind the Mercedes and marginally ahead of Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso, with Rosberg fourth in the other Mercedes. Raikkonen 4.5 will be hoping to repeat his Melbourne trick of stopping one less time than his rivals and if he can achieve it, ought to be a strong contender for victory. You can also never discount Alonso – his Ferrari has looked quick all weekend, evidenced by Felipe Massa being right up there in the standings also – and offers a chance of a good return at 4.7 for victory in Shanghai on Sunday.
Red Bull opted for a contrary strategy with Sebastian Vettel, qualifying ninth on the medium tyres. They will hope this will pay off later in the race, by running longer than their soft tyre-shod rivals and switching onto the faster rubber late in the race, hoping to pick off any places in the process. It’s risky, but ought to give Vettel a decent chance of a podium finish and he’s worth backing at 1.91. If you’re feeling really brave then he’s available at 6.8 for the win.
Check back later before deciding where to put your money in relation to Mark Webber, for the Aussie has yet to hear if he will start from the back of the grid after running out of fuel in second qualifying. In 2011 Mark went from 18th to third so if he ends up last, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility he could snare a top six finish. At the moment his odds of 1.5 are based on his starting position of 14th, but will improve if, as seems likely, he’ll be demoted for his fuel irregularity.
Paul di Resta should also be considered for a points finish at 1.73 – the Scotsman starts 11th with a free choice of tyres and, whichever strategy he chooses, needs to only make up one place in order to secure a point come the end of the race. He will probably be eyeing the Toro Rosso of Daniel Ricciardo, which qualified seventh but could fall backwards on race day.
Recommended Bets
Lewis Hamilton to win 3.25
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium 1.91
Paul di Resta to finish in the points 1.73
Milesey ( betfair )
DAILY DOUBLE
————-
2:30 Market Rasen
ENDEAVOR 11/10 BET365
4:30 Ffos Las
IF IN DOUBT 15/8 BET365
Milesey
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
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4.40 WINCANTON
GREATS AUTRECHENE 11/1 BET365
It may be worth taking a chance on GREATS AUTRECHENE, Charlie Longsdon’s gelding won nicely at Leicester two starts ago before being pulled up when stepped up in trip at Kempton. Back to this distance, he can strike.
Milesey
** 4.40 Market Rasen **
Milesey
SUNDAY 14TH APRIL 2013
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2.05 LEOPARDSTOWN
MICHAELMAS
2.35 LEOPARDSTOWN
THE UNITED STATES
3.05 LEOPARDSTOWN
DECLARATION OF WAR
3.40 LEOPARDSTOWN
WHAT STYLE
4.15 LEOPARDSTOWN
BATTLE OF MARENGO
LEOPARDSTOWN OUTSIDER
4.45
ROMANTIC
3.10 WINCANTON
COME ON ANNIE
4.20 WINCANTON
JUMP CITY
DAILY DOUBLE
2:30 Market Rasen
ENDEAVOR
4:30 Ffos Las
IF IN DOUBT
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
4.40 MARKET RASEN
GREATS AUTRECHENE
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CHINESE GRAND PRIX
Lewis Hamilton to win 3.25
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium 1.91
Paul di Resta to finish in the points 1.73
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Milesey
2.35 THE UNITED STATES IS MY ONLY BET TODAY 13/8 & PADDY POWER
GOOD LUCK
TODAYS RESULTS
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3.05 LEOPARDSTOWN
DECLARATION OF WAR 3.01 ** 1ST **
4.15 LEOPARDSTOWN
BATTLE OF MARENGO 1.76 ** 1ST **
3.10 WINCANTON
COME ON ANNIE 4.6 ** 5TH **
4.20 WINCANTON
JUMP CITY 2.11 ** 3RD **
DAILY DOUBLE
2:30 Market Rasen
ENDEAVOR 2.22 ** 2ND **
4:30 Ffos Las
IF IN DOUBT 2.48 ** 3RD **
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
4.40 MARKET RASEN
GREATS AUTRECHENE 9.49 ** 4TH **
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Milesey