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ANOTHER busy day of racing ahead so here's Milesey's tips from Fontwell, Kempton, Ludlow and Wincanton including a closer look at the 4.20 from Ludlow
LUDLOW 2.40MICKIE
A winner of a hurdle race at 2m 5f on soft ground. Beaten 7l by Prima Porta when second of 9 at 3-1 on her latest outing in a hurdle race over this course and distance (soft) in February.
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m on good to soft and heavy ground. Third of 13 behind Superciliary beaten 8l at 11-4fav on her latest outing in a hurdle race at Plumpton over 2m 2f (good) earlier this month. Has won at Wincanton and Plumpton this season.
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O'ROONEY
Winner of two hurdle races and four chases from 2m 4f to 3m on ground varying from good to heavy. Beaten 6l by Pigeon Island when second of 13 at 4-1fav on his latest outing in a chase at Ascot over 3m (good) earlier this month.
FONTWELL 5.20
UPTON MEAD
He has won three chases from 2m 1f to 2m 4f on ground varying from good to soft to heavy. Beaten 10l by Last Shot when second of 7 at 9-2 on his latest outing in a chase at Plumpton over 2m 1f (good to soft) last month. Has won 3 times this season.
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION
A winner at 16-1 in a chase at Exeter over 3m (good) on her latest outing earlier this month, beating Midnight Haze by 12l. Carries a 7lb penalty today for that success.
WINCANTON 4.00
MONTE CAVALLO
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m and 2m 1f on good and good to soft ground. Well beaten at 100-1 behind Zarkandar when last of 6 on his latest outing in a Grade 2 hurdle race over this course and distance (heavy) in February.
KEMPTON 8.30
MAGGIE PINK
She has won three times at 7f on polytrack. Beaten 3 1/2l by Putin when second of 5 at 2-1fav on her latest outing at Southwell over 1m last month.
OUTSIDER
LUDLOW 3.40 DIVERS 7-1
He has won a hurdle race and three chases from 2m to 2m 4f on good and good to soft ground, but last win was over two years ago. Well beaten at 12-1 when 12th of 22 on his latest outing in a Grade 3 chase in the Group 3 Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham over 2m 5f (good to soft) last month.
TODAYS LUCKY 15
- LUDLOW 2.40 MICKIE
- WINCANTON 3.30 ADDICTION
- FONTWELL 3.50 GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER
- FONTWELL 4.20 FRUITY O'ROONEY
RACE IN FOCUS – FONTWELL 4.20
Fruity O'rooney is a genuine front runner who is often on the premises in good staying handicaps, running another good race at Ascot on Sunday. Should continue to give a good account off this sort of mark.
As de Fer has been lightly raced and has little form since scoring at Ffos Las (3m) in November 2011, but strong in the market when returning from 13 months off at Chepstow recently. Possibly too soon to write off.
Midnight Sail found only one too good on 6 occasions either side of C&D win 12 months ago and got deserved success at Kempton (2½m) in February. Rare poor effort last time but type to bounce back quickly.
Niceonefrankie looked progressive when scoring 4 times at up to 21f over fences in 2012. String of consistent efforts in 2013 and no obvious reason why he wouldn't go well under these conditions.
Amaury de Lusignan has been much improved since switched to fences, completing hat-trick of handicap successes around 2m here in the first half of 2012. Some promise on reappearance in November but not seen since.
Mortimers Cross showed a willing attitude when regaining winning thread in 4m Borders Grand National at Kelso in December. No show twice since, though, and might prove vulnerable once more.
Fine Parchment is a good jumper who's on a handy mark but isn't one to place maximum faith in. Creditable effort at Sandown in February but not in the same form at Fakenham last time.
Requin showed signs that he was getting back on track when fourth at Stratford (21f) in October, but quickly back in the doldrums with poor efforts twice since. Well treated if he ever finds his form again.
Venetian Lad goes well here, winning 4 handicap chases at the track in 2012. Creditable efforts the last twice and conditions to suit but career-best performance to win from out of the handicap.
- Fruity O'rooney
- Niceonefrankie
- Midnight Sail
Fruity O'Rooney is a tough handicapper and a reproduction of his Ascot second at the weekend would see him go very close in this field. Niceonefrankie and Midnight Sail look best of the rest, although market support for As De Fer shouldn't be taken lightly.
Milesey
GambleAware
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LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE ( nap )
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY
FONTWELL 5.20
UPTON MEAD
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION
WINCANTON 4.00
MONTE CAVALLO
KEMPTON 8.30
MAGGIE PINK
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**********************
OUTSIDER
——–
LUDLOW 3.40
DIVERS 7-1
**********************
**********************
TODAYS LUCKY 15
—————
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY
**********************
**********************
RACE IN FOCUS
————-
FONTWELL 4.20
1. Fruity O’rooney
2. Niceonefrankie
3. Midnight Sail
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LUDLOW DOUBLE
2.40
MICKIE
3.10
GREEN TO GOLD
********************
********************
Milesey
PLACE and WIN
*************
FLING ME
2.50 Fontwell
This gelding finished second to Ballyhooley Boy in a bumper at Southwell last month. He made most of the running, until he was collared inside the final furlong by the impressive winner.
I thought that was a decent effort, and should be ready to do himself justice on his hurdles debut. He should go close at a fair price.
At present he is trading at 5.0 on the exchange.
Milesey
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Royal Challengers Bangalore
In their last match, we saw just how devastating this RCB batting line-up can be on their own ground. Despite their talisman Chris Gayle failing to make an impact, 162 was chased down with 14 balls to spare, leaving the impression that a score of 200 is well within their grasp at home. Regular opener Tillakaratne Dilshan was dropped for that game and, with Mayank Agarwal chipping in with a quickfire 29 off 20 balls, the Sri Lankan star may struggle to get his place back.
Kolkata Knight Riders
The defending champions’ two matches so far have yielded very contrasting results. First a comfortable home win over Delhi, led by Sunil Narine’s four wickets, followed by defeat away to Rajasthan after collapsing to 125 chasing just 145. There is enough batting strength in their squad to disregard last time as a blip and, with Eden Gardens becoming something of a fortress, Kolkata look a solid outright trade to win the IPL at 8.2 in expectation of a play-off spot.
First Innings Runs
156 remains the lowest first innings total in the last two seasons at the M A Chinnaswamy Stadium so we must expect another run-fest, especially on Tuesday’s evidence. Now as then, however, choosing the best bet depends on the toss. If RCB bat first, I’ll be backing them to score over 160 at around 2.0 and 4.5 on 180+. If Kolkata bat first, however, I’d be more wary and set my sights ten runs lower.
Match odds
This has all the hallmarks of a classic, with numerous individuals capable of transforming the match on their own. Both sides are packed with big-hitters, so it may help to bat second once the target is known. The decisive battle could be between Bangalore’s batsman and Sunil Narine during the second half of their innings. RCB regularly slog huge totals at the death, Narine usually at least strangles opponent’s scoring rate. On the basis that in-form spinner Amit Mishra went for 42 off his four overs in Tuesday’s match here, Narine may be less effective than usual. For that reason, Bangalore are marginally preferred at 1.8.
Top Bangalore batsman
Virat Kohli’s 93 off 47 balls against Hyderabad was a joy to watch and Indian cricket’s rising star is well worth backing at 4.3 to top-score for the third straight match. As usual with RCB, the chief threats are Chris Gayle and AB De Villiers, as one of that star trio tends to deliver, therefore setting an impossible target for later batsmen.
Top Kolkata batsman
The latter stages of innings at this ground tend to yield vast numbers of runs and boundaries meaning, in theory, middle-order sloggers have a better chance than usual of top-scoring. Eoin Morgan fits the bill perfectly and, after top-scoring in the last game, could still be overpriced at 6.0.
Recommended bet
Back Bangalore @ 1.8
Milesey
Pune Warriors v Rajasthan Royals
Start Time: 15:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com
Pune Warriors
The Warriors were fancied by some as an outside bet to make the play offs after assembling a strong squad ahead of the tournament. Unfortunately, injury to Michael Clarke has clearly affected their chances and there is an issue over replacement skipper Angelo Mathews whose performances suggest that he hardly merits a place in the line up.
Two heavy defeats in two indicate that changes are needed with players of the quality of Luke Wright, Tamim Iqbal and Ajantha Mendis waiting in the wings. The under-performing Mitchell Marsh looks particularly vulnerable ahead of this match but will the selectors take the brave decision to drop Mathews before their play off chances disappear completely?
With no obvious replacement as skipper, the answer is probably no but the Sri Lankan needs to improve if Pune are to have any chance of a win in this match.
Rajasthan Royals
In complete contrast, Rajasthan Royals defied early predictions by taking two wins from two in their opening matches. The scalps were impressive ones too as Dravid’s team edged past the Daredevils before claiming a far more comfortable victory against reigning champions KKR.
They may not have the star names but are performing well as a unit with Dravid, Brad Hodge and Ajinkya Rahane all in good touch with the bat while Kevon Cooper has been something of a revelation as a death bowler in the first two matches.
Venue and Conditions
Pune continued their pattern of underachieving at home by posting a dismal total of 99 which Kings XI Punjab knocked off inside 13 overs on Sunday. Such performances make it hard to gauge just what a par score is but it’s not the fastest of tracks in the IPL so any side batting first should look to the 150 – 155 mark as a challenging total.
Forecasts suggest no cloud cover so the game should start in the late thirties centigrade before dropping some twenty degrees by the end of the match.
Match Odds
Rajasthan are favourites at 1.95 to take the points and after beating stronger opposition earlier in the tournament, will be confident of a third straight victory against struggling Pune who are out at 2.04 for the win.
Expect some changes in the Warriors XI but with only four overseas players allowed to take to the field, the key to the contest is in their weak domestic batting line up. The Royals’ bowlers have been outstanding in defending low totals and should have enough to overcome the hosts again.
Top Pune Batsman
Aside from Mathews, the real disappointment in the Warriors’ team has been Marlon Samuels. He’s one of the favourites to top score in this match at 3.4 but eight runs in two knocks suggests that the better bet is Robin Uthappa, who has been more consistent and will be tempting at 4.0 or better.
Top Rajasthan Batsman
Brad Hodge provided the return last time out and is good value again if you can get 4.0 or better. Skipper Dravid will attract a lot of money at 3.6 but Hodge is such a consistent T20 performer that it’s impossible to look beyond the veteran Australian.
Recommended Bet
Back Rajasthan to win at 1.95
Milesey
The Premier League Darts hits Sheffield for week ten with Van Gerwen against Taylor the highlight. Wayne Mardle is predicting a repeat of the draw from last time the two giants clashed, as he previews at the evening’s matches
Robert Thornton v Simon Whitlock
19:10
Simon only just about escaped from relegation, but the reason he was down there in first place was his inconsistency. He needs to play well for an entire match not just phases. Robert, on the other hand, is firing on every cylinder going. He beat Whitlock just three weeks ago with an average of well over 105 and I think he’ll emerge victorious again.
Recommended Bet: Thornton to win at 1.8
Adrian Lewis v James Wade
19:40
Wade has two matches on the night and that’s tough. If his adrenaline drops off at any point that will make it even tougher than it already is and, with the second match of the night v MVG likely to be on James’ mind, Lewis can take advantage. I’ll take Adrian to win the match at a decent price.
Recommended Bet: Lewis to win at 2.62
Michael van Gerwen v Phil Taylor
20:10
Their first match ended in a draw and I think this will go the same way. Both are brilliant when the pressure is on. It’s going to be tight all the way. These two could well be fighting out the final come may.
Recommended Bet: Draw at 4.5
Andy Hamilton v Raymond van Barneveld
20:40
Andy’s form has dropped off a tad; he’s not been as consistent as normal and that’s been a problem. Barney is a man who’s happy with the way things are going. And his record against the Hammer suggests he’ll win this with ease.
Recommended Bet: Van Barneveld to win 7-2
James Wade v Michael van Gerwen
21:10
James Wade takes on MVG at the end of the evening in a second game for both players. The previous games on the night will have an impact on how the match will turn out so I’ll avoid any predictions on the overall outcome, but a safe bet either way is Wade for Highest Checkout. James is one of the best double hitters in world darts and has already hit 10 three figure checkouts during the Premier League this year, compared to two for Michael.
Recommended Bet: Wade to hit the Highest Checkout at 1.71
BETFAIR
F1 CHINESE GRAND PRIX
———————-
Signs that Fernando Alonso and Ferrari could come back into the Formula One picture in the Chinese Grand Prix…
It hasn’t taken long for Sebastian Vettel to show his true colours. He might have been full of saying sorry for ignoring team orders to go ahead of Mark Webber in Malaysia, but jump forward a couple of weeks and it’s a different story. “I don’t apologise for winning,” he’s said now.
And, actually, good for him. If you’d backed Vettel for the race you would have done it expecting the young German’s competitive instincts to be one of the deciding factors, so you wouldn’t be at all sorry if that’s how it turned out.
But it does mean that as the Grand Prix circus arrives in China this weekend the spotlight will again glare down on Vettel and his fellow Red Bull driver Webber to analyse the fall-out from their Malaysian feud.
I was just as fascinated by a row in the last race that didn’t happen. When Fernando Alonso careered off the track I expected the volatile Spaniard to come in raging about the team’s decision to delay a pit stop. He had run into the back of Vettel when the race was a few seconds old, it was clear the front wing of his car had been severely damaged, and it seemed obvious he had to stop and get it sorted.
Instead the pit engineers chose to keep him racing in a damaged car with the idea of changing tyres a lap or two later, at the same time as they fixed the wing.
It turned out a disastrous decision as, just a few hundred yards after passing the pits, the wing fell off altogether and his Ferrari careered out of control into a gravel trap.
Alonso was asked about it this week in a Twitter Q and A on Ferrari’s website, and this was his reaction: “In hindsight it is easy to say it would have been better to come in, but we thought I could hold on for another lap to make the most of the pit-stop. The race simulations state if I stopped to change the nose I would have finished ninth or tenth so we didn’t lose anything. The problem wasn’t not coming in; the damage was done in the collision.”
Roughly translated that means Alonso admits it was his fault and not the team’s. It puts an interesting insight into his state of mind about his car this year. Last season he dragged himself into contention for the title despite a dog of a car, and was moaning all year about being handicapped. This time he seems happy with his wheels and that suggests there is more to come from him.
It’s why I think that while Vettel at 3.35 favourite is the obvious bet to win the Chinese Grand Prix, the value is in backing Alonso at 4.8. Ferrari’s development work in the three week break since the last race has been centred around their qualifying pace, which was already good. Felipe Massa, after all, was second on the grid in Singapore.
The Shanghai track with its 1.2km straight and varying corner types is a fairly unique circuit that puts additional demands on the cars – especially with the effects of dust from the nearby factories. That makes odds against in the safety car market – currently spread between 2.24 and 5.4 – the other piece of value this weekend.
Recommended Bet
Back Fernando Alonso to win @ 4.8
Milesey ( betfair )
if im only betting 10p e/w lucky 15 is there any point doing yours milesy? because done it before think I had 2 winners and one third and I got 75p back haha??
Ben h, if you’re doing a 10p lucky 15 you’re probably better picking your own because you need a couple of decent prices inthere tomake it worthwhile.
LUCKY 15 for BEN
—————-
FONTWELL 5.20
UPTON MEAD 4.6 (7/2)
WINCANTON 4.00
MONTE CAVALLO 5.6 (9/2)
OUTSIDER
——–
LUDLOW 3.40
DIVERS 8.6 (15/2)
ANOTHER OUTISDER
—————–
Synthe Davis 13.5
4.10 Ludlow
Try that for your 10p stake ;) ;)
Milesey
There you go Milesey, you could have:
A Lucky 15 – Low Stake / High Return Punt as a Category
Let me have your thoughts.
Regards
Hi,
Had a Yankee Bet on Bet365 reduced odds (place)
Monte Cavallo @ 3.20 (1 – 3)
Upton Mead @ 2.37 (1 – 3)
Divers @ 4.00 (1 – 3)
Synthe Davis @ 9.50 (1 & 2)
Yankee, 11 bets * £0.10 11/04/2013 13:05:35 Stake £1.10.
It pays £72.41 if all ok
Bit of fun and more chance of winning.
Goodluck Allen, hopefully all will come in ;)
Milesey
Milesey if you were doing a double today who would you pair with with your Nap pick today? cheers.
***********************
***********************
LUDLOW DOUBLE
2.40
MICKIE
3.10
GREEN TO GOLD
********************
********************
Or play it safe with
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION
Milesey
Thanks for that,ill try the double and treble with your picks.
Today’s Non-runners
Fontwell Park
14:20
4 Darley Sun 12 Yazdi
14:50
7 Ricketyrock
15:20
4 Budsson
15:50
4 Kijivu 6 Nuisance 7 Fluter Phil 9 Lisahane Bog
16:20
3 Midnight Sail
16:50
4 Murcar 5 Brough Academy 8 Only Vintage 12 Strathcal 13 Star Of Massini
17:20
2 Bolachoir 4 Francis Du Mesnil
17:50
1 Lemony Bay 4 Just Archie 7 Stoney Silence 8 Chill Factor 13 Goodgoshmsmolly
Kempton Park
Race
Horse
18:30
9 Mrs Mann
19:00
8 Break Rank
20:30
5 Perfect Ch’i
Ludlow
Race
Horse
14:10
8 Naledi
17:10
8 Bollin Across
Wincanton
Race
Horse
14:30
12 Billy Dutton
16:00
13 Bin End
17:35
8 River Deep
Milesey
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***********************
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE ( nap ) 1.5 (1/2)
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER 2.76 (7/4)
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY 2.5 (6/4)
FONTWELL 5.20
UPTON MEAD 4.6 (7/2)
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION 2.54 (6/4)
WINCANTON 4.00
MONTE CAVALLO 5.6 (9/2)
KEMPTON 8.30
MAGGIE PINK 4.7 (7/2)
**********************
**********************
OUTSIDER
——–
LUDLOW 3.40
DIVERS 8.6 (15/2)
**********************
**********************
TODAYS LUCKY 15
—————
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE 1.5 (1/2)
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION 2.54 (6/4)
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER 2.76 (7/4)
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY 2.5 (6/4)
**********************
**********************
RACE IN FOCUS
————-
FONTWELL 4.20
1. Fruity O’rooney
2. Niceonefrankie
3. Midnight Sail
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***********************
LUDLOW DOUBLE
2.40
MICKIE 1.5 (1/2)
3.10
GREEN TO GOLD 2.56 (8/5)
********************
********************
Milesey
Would anyone care to explain what a Lucky 15 Consist of ? & how it would win or lose ?
What Is A Lucky 15 Bet?
A Lucky 15 bet is a series of 4 different selections, each of which pays out on its own pay table. The four selections are (4) single bets, (6) double bets, (4) treble bets, and (1) fourfold accumulator bet. You choose 4 teams (or horses, sides, etc) and then pick a bet amount. Each Lucky 15 bet is multiplied by 15, one unit for each leg of the bet. A 1 unit Lucky 15 bet would cost 15 units. The name Lucky comes from the bonus that comes when only one team wins.
Lucky 15 Bet Example
An easy way to think of the bet is to imagine picking 4 teams, A, B, C, and D. Your Lucky 15 bet would then consist of these bets:
Straight (single) bets on teams
A, B, C, and D
Double (2 selections) bets on teams
AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, and CD
Treble (3 selections) bets on teams
ABC, ABD, ACD, and BCD
Fourfold accumulator (4 selections) on teams
ABCD
Most books offer a bonus if one and only one selection wins. A common bonus is 2x those odds. Some books offer 3x, this clearly is a great advantage to have when placing your bet.
Assuming even odds on all 4 bets, and assuming a 2x bonus if one team wins, if just team A wins, you would get paid 2 units, netting a loss of 13 units. If teams A and B win, you would win the 2 straight bets (one unit each), as well as one of the double bets (one unit+two units, for a total of three units), for a payout of 5 units. If teams A, B, and C win, you would win 3 straight bets (three units), 3 of the doubles (nine units), and one treble (seven units), for a total payout of 19 units. And if all four teams win, you would get paid on all of the bets, which would net a payout of 65 units (four units for single bets+18 units for the doubles+28 units for the trebles+15 units for the fourfold).
Lucky 15 Bet Payout Explained
Let’s go a bit more in-depth as to how I came up with these figures.
If team A wins, you win the straight bet on team A, but none of the other selections. This bet, assuming even odds, pays out one unit. But your bet costs 15 units, so you lose all the other bets. Again, most books pay a bonus on this “one out of four” scenario, so you would get a payout of either 2 or 3 units. Simple enough.
If teams A and B both win, you now win 2 of the single bets, which would pay you 2 units. You would also win the double bet “AB,” which means that you would win one unit on team A and then risk those 2 units (the original unit+the one you won) on team B, for a win of 2 units on team B. Adding the one unit from team A to the 2 units from team B, you come out ahead 3 units on that double.
Of course, very rarely will you place a bet where all four teams are even money. When different odds come into play, different payouts will result.
There are various calculators available online that can help you check your odds before placing your Lucky 15 bet. These calculators can come in handy because the odds are not always the same. So if you have a Lucky 15 with various favorites or underdogs involved, you will need to check the odds or figure them out on your own to check your possible payouts.
A quick example of this would be if you place a Lucky 15 bet with even (1/1) odds on every team except team B, which has 4/1 odds. Now let us take a look at some of the different payouts.
If only team B wins, you would get paid out on only the single bet for team B, but again, most books offer the bonus. So if just team B wins, you would get a payout of 8/1 from books that offer the 2x bonus.
If teams A and B win, you are in luck, because now you get paid 1/1 on team A, and 8/1 on team B, plus you would win the double bet where you win 1 unit on team A, and then take that 2 units and put it on team B, resulting in a payout of 16/1! Of course, if the odds are higher, the payouts will increase as well, and if you are “lucky” enough to hit 3 or 4 legs of this bet with high odds, you can really cash in.
The math is similar for the trebles and the fourfold. If teams A, B, and C all win, you win the 3 single bets, 3 of the doubles, and one of the trebles. The treble works similarly in that you take one unit on team A, risk the win+original unit on team B, and risk it all again on team C.
Conclusion: Feelin’ Lucky?
If you’re really feeling a hot streak coming on, nothing beats a Lucky 15 bet. If you are able to hit all four games, your payout will be huge. Even if only one out of four teams wins, you still will get some money back. The sweet spot really comes when either 2 or 3 teams wins, which will happen a decent percentage of the time, and will result in a nice payout. Be sure to check your odds and make sure you line shop properly, so you nab the highest payouts available for your games.
Milesey
The Lucky 15 Explained
A Lucky 15 bet is a special form of accumulator bet which requires you to make four selections. It can be used for a variety of sports but is most common in horse racing or football.
A Lucky 15 is a wager on four selections and consists of 15 separate bets. These 15 bets are:
• 4 singles
• 6 doubles
• 4 trebles and
• 1 fourfold accumulator
One winning selection will guarantee a return. The more selections are correct, the higher the payout.
For example, you may select a Lucky 15 bet featuring the selections of Chelsea, Real Madrid, Celtic and Manchester United. If one or more of these teams wins their respective match, you will be guaranteed a payout. If two of the teams win, you will receive three payouts (two singles and one double). If all four teams win, you receive fifteen payouts (4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 fourfold accumulator.)
Using our onsite Betting Calculator can help you work out your potential return from a Lucky 15 bet. By entering the odds of your four selections, the calculator can work out what your returns would be.
It is easy to place a Lucky 15 bet online with Paddy Power. Once you have logged into your internet account, you can add the four selections you wish to make to your betslip one at a time. Your betslip will then give you options regarding the type of bet you wish to place and you choose ‘Lucky 15’.
You then have to decide what your ‘unit stake’ will be. The ‘unit stake’ is the amount that you wish to wager on each of the 15 bets. For example, if you bet a £1 (or €1) ‘unit stake’ on a Lucky 15 bet, it would cost you £15 (or €15).
The ‘Lucky’ part of the name of this and other similar bets comes from the bookmaker’s practice of offering bonuses for one or more winners. This sometimes included ‘double the odds’ if only one of your selections is a winner.
For punters familiar with betting terms, a Lucky 15 is the equivalent to a Yankee plus 4 singles
Milesey
Milesey you’re a legend mate thanks for the help.
CHAMPION mare Black Caviar has drawn the rails for her attempt to win her 25th race but will have to wait until race nine to get her opportunity in Saturday’s $1 million T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick.
There are 11 final acceptors for the feature sprint that includes six individual Group 1 winners – Black Caviar, Hay List, Bel Sprinter, Atomic Force, Sea Siren and Epaulette.
And in a piece of good fortune that should work in her favour, the notorious slow beginner Bel Sprinter is drawn next to her, almost guaranteeing her a favourable run.
What is of more concern to trainer Peter Moody is the fact the Group 1 event has been scheduled as the final race of the day – and won’t start until 5.10pm.
“If the track was to be wet then it would be even worse after eight races,” Moody said.
“I’ve been pretty clear that she won’t run on a wet track. That hasn’t changed.”
Moody said he understood the reasoning in making Black Caviar’s race the last of the day.
“The last time we were here, two years ago, we were in race four and everyone went home after it,” he said.
Moody suggested a slow 6 track rating would be the limit for Black Caviar. Any worse and she will be scratched.
Black Caviar will be a long odds-on favourite to continue her phenomenal unbeaten winning streak.
If successful, she will also extend her Group 1-winning streak to eight and take her career tally of major race wins to 15 – both Australian records.
Black Caviar winds back the clock
Although the Royal Randwick track is still rated a slow 7 today, improving weather in Sydney for the rest of this week should ensure the track condition improves and could even get back to a dead racing surface by Saturday.
TJ SMITH STAKES
Randwick, Saturday 5.10pm
No. Horse Jockey Barrier Weight
1 – HAY LIST Glyn Schofield 9 58.5kg
2 – BEL SPRINTER Hugh Bowman 2 58.5kg
3 – RAIN AFFAIR Corey Brown 5 58.5kg
4 – DECISION TIME James McDonald 4 58.5kg
5 – ATOMIC FORCE Joshua Parr 6 58.5kg
6 – TITLE Michael Rodd 3 58.5kg
7 – HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME Brenton Avdulla 7 58.5kg
8 – ONTHELOOKOUT Carl Spry 11 58.5kg
9 – BLACK CAVIAR Luke Nolen 1 56.5kg
10 – SEA SIREN Jim Cassidy 10 56.5kg
11 – EPAULETTE Kerrin McEvoy 8 56.5kg
Milesey
***********************
***********************
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE ( nap ) 1.5 (1/2)
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER 2.76 (7/4)
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY 2.5 (6/4)
FONTWELL 5.20
UPTON MEAD 4.6 (7/2)
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION 2.54 (6/4)
WINCANTON 4.00
MONTE CAVALLO 5.6 (9/2)
KEMPTON 8.30
MAGGIE PINK 4.7 (7/2)
**********************
**********************
OUTSIDER
——–
LUDLOW 3.40
DIVERS 8.6 (15/2)
**********************
**********************
TODAYS LUCKY 15
—————
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE 1.5 (1/2)
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION 2.54 (6/4)
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER 2.76 (7/4)
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY 2.5 (6/4)
**********************
**********************
RACE IN FOCUS
————-
FONTWELL 4.20
1. Fruity O’rooney
2. Niceonefrankie
3. Midnight Sail
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***********************
LUDLOW DOUBLE
2.40
MICKIE 1.5 (1/2)
3.10
GREEN TO GOLD 2.56 (8/5)
********************
********************
PLACE and WIN
FLING ME
2.50 Fontwell
*********************
*********************
IPL CRICKET
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Recommended bet
Back Bangalore @ 1.8
Pune Warriors v Rajasthan Royals
Recommended Bet
Back Rajasthan to win at 1.95
************************
************************
PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS
——————–
Adrian Lewis v James Wade
LEWIS WIN
Andy Hamilton v Raymond van Barneveld
BARNEY WIN
James Wade v Michael van Gerwen
MVG WIN
***************************
***************************
FOOTBALL
————————
FC Basel 2.52, Spurs 2.98, the draw 3.65
Recommended Bet
Best Bet: Back Spurs to win at 2.98
Back Spurs to qualify at 2.58
—————————————-
Rubin 2.78, Chelsea 2.82, the draw 3.45
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at 2.02
Back the draw at Half Time at 2.14
——————————————
Newcastle 3.05, Benfica 2.56, the draw 3.45
Recommended Bet
Back Papiss Cisse in the To Score market at 2.74
Best Bet
Back Benfica to win at 2.56
———————————————-
Lazio 1.94, Fenerbahce 4.7, the draw 3.65
Best Bet
Back Lazio to win at 1.94
————————————————-
**********************************
**********************************
US Masters Three Ball Tips:
Recommended Bets
3:45pm T Woods (USA), L Donald (Eng), S Piercy (USA)
6:41pm R McIlroy (Nir), K Bradley (USA), F Jacobson (Swe)
Back McIlroy/Woods double @ 2.7
5:24pm B Crenshaw (USA), M Manassero (Ita), T Guan (Chn)
Back Guan Tianlang @ 5.0
5:13pm E Els (Rsa), S Stricker (USA), N Watney (USA)
Back Nick Watney @ 2.75
4:29pm M O’Meara (USA), M Laird (Sco), J Donaldson (Wal)
Back Martin Laird @ 1.95
1:11pm L Mize (USA), B Gay (USA), R Henley (USA)
Back Russell Henley @ 2.0
US MASTERS 2013
—————
Recommended Bets
Back Lee Westwood each-way @ 31.0
Back Matt Kuchar @ 3.9 to finish Top 10
Back Hunter Mahan @ 5.0 to finish Top 10
Back Peter Hanson @ 8.0 to finish as Top Continental European
Back Tiger Woods @ 5.4
MY E/W SELECTIONS……………..
Louis Oosthuizen @ 31.0
Hunter Mahan @ 41.0
Richard Sterne @ 201.0
Martin Laird @ 111.0
Milesey
ONE MORE OUTSIDER FOR TODAY
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Ludlow, it was tempting to give another chance to Micheal Flips, but in some ways this is a harder race than that in which he fell at Newbury last time, another four in the field the recipients of generous treatment from the handicapper if they come back to their best. Instead, Synthe Davis looks overpriced in the mares handicap hurdle at 16.10. She hasn’t had many chances on good ground (which suits her best) since winning twice in the autumn of 2010. She raced twice on it the following autumn, but lack of fitness and then a chance-ending blunder scuppered her on those occasions. She has decent claims on the form she showed on soft ground at Huntingdon in November, but it could be that back on good there will be more to come. Synthe Davis could also get a soft lead, while the booking of Richard Johnson, who rode her to those wins in 2010, looks a positive sign as well.
Back Synthe Davis @ 13.5 in the 16.10 at Ludlow
***********************************************
Milesey
Hi Milesey,
Tennis Players get Tennis Elbow
Rugby Players get Cauliflower Ears
Do you get Typist Finger (not the Finger from Typists) with all the typing you must do?
Every article, for the most part, is thoroughly explained – You know like ‘War and Peace’.
Keep it up!
Best Regards,
Yep, and i also get ARSE ACHE with all the losers i keep getting aswell ;) ;)
Milesey
thanks mr f
Camden and Fruity O Rooney Fontwell Addiction and Chesil Beach Boy Wincanton Rando Pano and Green to Gold Ludlow surely few winners in there i hope :)
Here are today’s market movers from the afternoon meetings at Fontwell, Ludlow, Wincanton and Limerick…
Fontwell
14:20
Up To Something 1.55 out to 1.99
Abruzzi 5.6 in to 4.5
14:50
Seebright 2.04 out to 2.36
Fling Me 5.4 in to 4.4
Serious Mixture 9 in to 5.5
16:20
Fruity Orooney 2.98 in to 2.44
17:50
Seven Nation Army 1.37 out to 1.92
Ludlow
14:10
Descaro 4.2 out to 5.9
Smiling Lady 9.8 in to 6.8
15:10
Green To Gold 3.15 in to 2.2
Sublime Talent 3.55 out to 4.9
15:40
Cootehill 3.85 out to 5.9
Divers 8 in to 6
Fiendish Flame 8.8 in to 5.9
Buck Mulligan 9 out to 16
16:10
Candelita 7.8 out to 10.5
17:10
Going Concern 3.51 out to 4.6
17:45
Hare In A Round 2.16 out to 2.66
Mystifiable 8.4 in to 5.7
Wincanton
14:00
Katnapping 7 out to 24
14:30
Billy No Name 12 in to 8.6
15:00
Henry San 5.4 in to 4.2
15:30
Addiction 2.28 out to 2.54
Ceepeegee 10 in to 5.4
Goring One 7.4 out to 12
16:00
Sleeping City 9 in to 6
Waterunder 6.4 out to 9.6
Turn Over Sivola 10 in to 7
Joker Choker 11 out to 17
16:30
Coombe Hill 3.4 out to 4.3
Louis Pasteur 16 in to 6.8
17:00
Vodka n Tonic 4 in to 2.42
Talented Kid 4.9 out to 7.4
Mr Bridger 5.5 out to 9.4
17:35
Resurgent 3.65 in to 2.88
Limerick
19:40
Rich Coast 5.1 in to 3.95
Milesey
Hava wee dip on yer lucky 15/yankee Milesey..havna done much side from few at Ainterr last week. Auroras Encore and Zarkandar to name a couple ;-)need a nice bigggggg win tolump on Basel ;-) nah, dunno,not sure that’s cut n dried, Spurs know they have to score no matter who they’ve got playing of missing, Basel may not know whether to stick or twist/indecision could scupper them. I’ll decide after counting the winnings from this yankee tho :-) good luck
Guido, Basel are definitely not a banker bet and I’ve not suggested anyone lump on them. It’s a tough call and I’ve chosen them but as you say because 0-0 or 1-1 puts them through they could be cagey to their cost.
The T J Smith Stakes, due off at 08:10 GMT on Saturday, which features the magnificent Black Caviar…
Timeform’s highest ever rated filly or mare, the unbeaten world champion sprinter Black Caviar returns to Randwick on Saturday for a second tilt at the G1 T J Smith Stakes over 1200m.
Black Caviar rated 136 by Timeform has raced just once previously in Sydney for a memorable victory over arch rival Hay List in the 2011 T J Smith renewal.
On that occasion in front of a 30,000 strong crowd Black Caviar came from well off the speed to run down Hay List after that galloper had established what many believed could be a winning break after topping the famous Randwick rise.
Black Caviar returned to the enclosure amid scenes of adulation seldom seen at Randwick and this afternoon promises to be same.
The mighty mare that has captured the imagination of not only hardened racegoers from around the world but people from all walks of life will again race in front of an expected “full house” this afternoon, coinciding with the opening of the new Randwick grandstand and associated facilities.
Black Caviar will be chasing an unprecedented 25th straight victory, an unbeaten winning run that is the longest in the world for more than a century.
As was the case in the 2011 T J Smith Stakes, the field that Black Caviar races today has considerably more depth than that of her last start in the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley with five group one winners engaged amongst her ten rivals.
And although she will again prove too good, she will not have things all her own way, especially with Hay List engaged.
There is not much that can he said about Black Caviar that has not already been written.
Regular rider Luke Nolen will be lining up for his 22nd win atop the mare and she will start odds on in betting for the 24th time in her career.
One record she will take in her own right today is the number of career group one victories, an Australian record she currently shares with the mighty Kingston Town on 14.
Black Caviar has raced twice since her heart stopping win in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last June and from all accounts, for the first time in her career she is injury free.
Fresh up she won an unprecedented third G1 Lightning Stakes in track record time at Flemington from Moment Of Change, the only horse to do so and then easily accounted for Karuta Queen and Fawkner at Moonee Valley.
While she has not had to reproduce her 136 master Timeform rating in either of those two wins, she did run to 133+ in the Lightning Stakes. Black Caviar might get close to her master figure today if emerging sprinter Bel Sprinter continues to improve off his impressive fresh up victory in the G1 Galaxy a fortnight back and Hay List brings his “A” to town.
Before this preparation, Bel Sprinter had promised much but always seemed to be the victim of bad luck in his races. Prior to resuming this campaign, the gelding had a mild throat operation that increased his airwaves and the result was there for all to see, staging a winning performance not often seen in group one company.
After missing the jump in the Galaxy over 1100m at Rosehill and settling a clear last, the gelding was aided by a fast up front tempo allowing him to make up ground rapidly in the early part of the straight.
Under Kerrin McEvoy, Bel Sprinter descended quickly on the leaders from near last to claim smart sprinter Snitzerland at the 200m mark before racing away to win untroubled by more than three lengths.
Today he steps up a 100m in trip but his winning chances would be greatly enhanced if the speed is on from the start, enabling him to possibly “ambush” the leaders late.
Bel Sprinter ran to a new Timeform peak rating of 126 in the Galaxy but will have to go several pounds better if he is to seriously trouble the mare.
Likely leaders in the race are Rain Affair (Timeform rated 126) and Hay List (132) with the latter likely to take it up from his outside barrier.
Hay List resumed off a long layoff of almost twelve months due to injury and illness when he contested the G2 Challenge Stakes over 1000m at Warwick Farm a month ago finishing fourth behind Snitzerland.
On that occasion he led early and into the home straight until his condition faltered 200m from home when claimed by the winner.
Hay List will have derived considerable benefit from that run but still probably lacks race fitness to fully test Black Caviar as he has done in the past, particularly in view of his recent trials that have not been as impressive as they should have been.
Still his appearance adds considerable interest to the race.
Of all the runners in the race, the likely dead to slow track conditions will best suit the speedy Rain Affair.
The handy galloper is unbeaten on rain affected ground from all six attempts and although winless in the last twelve months looks set to bounce back to top form this afternoon.
Rain Affair is second up today after finishing fourth to champion three-year-old Pierro in the G1 Canterbury Stakes over 1300m at Rosehill three weeks back, a run that will have him much fitter for his clash with the big mare.
It is worth noting that at this time last year, Rain Affair pushed the highly promising Atlantic Jewel right out in the G1 All Aged Stakes at Randwick in one of the tussles of that Carnival.
A repeat effort here will ensure Black Caviar has to at least raise a sweat.
For many racegoers, today’s race could be the last opportunity they have to see Black Caviar race in Sydney. Sit back and savour the moment.
Milesey ( betfair )
IPL CRICKET
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Recommended bet
Back Bangalore @ 1.8 ** WINNER **
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE ( nap ) 1.5 (1/2) ** 1ST **
Great start ;) ;)
Milesey
LUDLOW DOUBLE
2.40
MICKIE 1.5 (1/2) ** 1ST **
3.10
GREEN TO GOLD 3.03 (2/1) ** 3RD **
********************
**********************
**********************
TODAYS LUCKY 15
—————
LUDLOW 2.40
MICKIE 1.5 (1/2) ** 1ST **
WINCANTON 3.30
ADDICTION 3.4 (12/5) ** U/S **
FONTWELL 3.50
GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER 2.76 (7/4) ** 1ST **
FONTWELL 4.20
FRUITY O’ROONEY 2.5 (6/4) ** 1ST **
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Would have had all 4 in if the Jockey on ADDICTION could have kept in the saddle when coming through to take the lead 4 out, but slipped out on landing.
Milesey
Milesey, three in a row two days running. Here’s a deal, I’ll lump on your Lucky 15 tomorrow if Basel qualify.
Lump on ? is that 10p unit stake ?
Milesey
Milesey, I’ll just have a Swiss beer instead.
Milesey, an Englishman leading the Masters, I can’t believe it. Thought we were the Home of Golf. Decent round by Lyle though, must be a bit shorter than 40-1 for top senior now.
i need HENLEY to beat GAY, both on -1 2 holes left for my 3 ball win for HENLEY
Milesey
Milesey, if Henley wins will he be a Gay basher?
ha ha ha, at the moment i’m heading for a dead heat, can you explain the dead heat rules MR F ? ;) ;)
Milesey
L Mize (USA), B Gay (USA), R Henley (USA)
all on E now :(
Milesey
Milesey, dead heat is when you can’t pay your debts. Oops, that’s deadbeat!
orooneyyyyyy get in :)
Good yankee Milesey ;-) pity aboot Addiction. Thot out of the 4 he would have been most likely winner. What happened to him? Ach well 3/4 double money. Good stuff. Off oot on bike think aboot tonights offerings
any 1 on richard hughes ? i will be on that at 6 kempton :) :)
go on hughes never ever in doubt :) i think you will agree milesey who your pick at kempton 6.30 ?
cheers for the lucky 15 unlucky with the faller