This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
EASTER MONDAY'S a big racing day and here are Milesey's top tip.
Fakenham 2.15
HARRY TRICKER
He has won two hurdle races and two chases from 2m to 2m 2f on good and good to soft ground but last win was over two years ago. Well beaten at 33-1 when eighth of 12 on his latest outing in a hurdle race at Kempton over 2m (heavy) in December last year.
Plumpton 2.35
SASH OF HONOUR
Placed in two hurdle races from three NH starts. Beaten 1l by Pistol when second of six at 9-2 on his latest outing in a hurdle race at Sandown over 2m (heavy) in February.
Fairyhouse 2.40
ZAIDPOUR
Winner of seven hurdle races from 2m to 3m on ground varying from soft to soft – heavy. Pulled up at the last when 25-1 in the Group 1 Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham over 3m (good to soft) in a Grade 1 hurdle race won by Solwhit last month on his latest outing.
Fakenham 2.45
PENMORE MILL
Won on his latest outing in a chase when 15-8 jt fav over this course and distance (soft) last month, beating French Canadian by 4l. Has also won at Mollington this season.
Fairyhouse 3.10
SARABAD
A winner of a hurdle race at 2m on heavy ground. Unseated rider when 11-2 at Cork over 3m (heavy) in a hurdle race won by Acapulco last month on his latest outing.
Fairyhouse 3.40
TENNIS CAP
He has won three hurdle races and a NH flat race from 1m 3f to 2m 4f on soft and heavy ground. Beaten 1 1/2l by Ted Veale when second of 28 at 11-1 on his latest outing in a Grade 3 hurdle race in the Group 3 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m 1f (good to soft) last month.
Huntingdon 3.40
NICKY NUTJOB
Has won four hurdle races from 2m to 2m 4f on ground varying from good to heavy. A winner at 7-1 in a hurdle race at Towcester over 2m 3f (good to soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Haling Park by a neck. Has also won at Leicester this season.
Warwick 4.50
DUKE OF CLARENCE
He has won three times at 1m 2f on good and soft ground and on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 7-4fav at Windsor over 1m 2f (soft) in October last year, beating Sheila’s Buddy by 1/2l.
Newcastle 5.25
DINGO BAY
Successful in two chases at 2m 4f and 3m on heavy ground. Won on his latest outing in a chase when 15-8fav over this course and distance (heavy) in February, beating Blazing Diva by a neck. Has won twice at Newcastle this season.
Milesey
GambleAware
Hi Milesey,
quick one, since you are Betfair, do they offer best odds guarantee on their fixed odds racing. Just checked a double i did earlier and i saw best odds guarantee underneath. Whats the deal with that?
Selected races, the same as most bookies do, you can’t offer it on every race, you would go broke in a week.
Milesey
*****************************************************
*****************************************************
BANKER OF THE DAY **** BANKER OF THE DAY
*****************************************************
*****************************************************
*****************************************************
BURNS NIGHT @ 150 ****** BURNS NIGHT @ 150
Unplaced in both starts over hurdles. Well beaten at 66-1 behind Flaming Arrow when eighth of 9 on his latest outing in a maiden hurdle race at Fakenham over 2m (soft) last month.
******************************************************
30p e/w on this one for 800000000 , “” TOP JOKEY “”
******************************************************
Right, nice one then. had to use them today,, normally use the exchanges, and all because Co ral decided to limit my bets. Well that’s the last I use them, well cant blame them, have taken them to the cleaners these past few weeks
I think all bookies offer the price guarantee on certain races, i know if you go in the shops they are normally written up on the boards, think bet365 have done it over a lengthy period before, but no one can do it for every race for a long time, they will lose alot of money, for at the end of the day 70 % normally goes on the favourite, if that doesn’t win you balance it up with the other percentage but at a higher payout for bigger odds.
Milesey
Paddy Power offer best odds guarantee on EVERY horse race. If you place a bet and the SP is higher they pay you out on the highest odds
They can’t continue to do that for long for they will go bust !
Milesey
They have been doing it for at least 2 years since I have had an account with them mate and not gone bust yet – check it out.
……………but what they offer isn’t as such a price guarantee for your getting 8/1 even if it cuts into 2/1, if you take them odds at that time and not a sp, if you take an sp price, they will only pay out what it goes off at, they won’t pay out to the 8/1 that it has come down from, so in theory you only make more money if your backing drifters, so you got on at 2/1 but it’s now drifted to 3/1, they will pay the 3/1. so it’s not what i call a price guarantee, for you will still only get on what you put on at unless the price drifts of cause.
Milesey
It wouldn’t matter one bit to me and i wouldn’t get nothing from it, for i back high anyway in the market before they cut right in, so i still get the price i am putting on at…. that offer is great if it drifts, but not when your trying to get on high before the price comes in, for they won’t pay you at the 16/1 price it was the night before, will only give you the higher price if it has drifted from the price you hit it at !
Milesey
Correct. But it is amazing how many times the price drifts and you take it at a shorter price – usually for me when I am in the bookies!
But then i lay at the short price looking for the drift to then back at the higher price ;) ;)
Milesey
My tips for the national and what i have backed for the win and places:
JOIN TOGETHER 20-1
RARE BOB 33-1
QUISCOVER FONTAINE 50-1
BetVictor Grand National 6 Places
From BetVictor
Claim it Now
John Smiths Grand National, 4.15 Aintree 6th April 2013.
40 runners will go to post for the Grand National 2013, the annual highlight of the National Hunt calendar and one of the biggest and most historic occasions in the world of sport.
Last years winner Ballabriggs will be among the field competing in the stamina sapping four-and-a-half mile race over 30 treacherous fences.
Leading online bookmaker BetVictor is paying two extra places on this year’s Grand National when punters will receive 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3,4,5,6.
The offer is available to each way bets placed on the race from 13:00 on Tuesday 26th March 2013.
JOIN TOGETHER 20-1
Paul Nicholls has always referred to this horse as a staying chaser in the making and his run in the Becher Chase seems to underline those potential qualities. Just held by the gallant Hello Bud at Aintree he looks likely to improve further when tried over extreme distances and his generally clean and efficient jumping marks him down as a horse to watch closely for the Grand National. The handicapper does not appear to have reacted too unfavourably to Join Together’s Becher run so connections must be very hopeful of following up on the stable’s fine win the Grand National.
RARE BOB 33-1
Rare Bob has been a useful handicapper for Dessie Hughes. The Highlight of his career so far is a win a 42k race at Leopardstown in 2010/11. All Rare Bobs wins have come on soft or heavy ground but that is not to say that this is horse is a mudlark as he has run some fine races on good ground. He has finished fourth in an Irish National as well as running good races in the John Smiths Handicap at Aintree in 2010 and again in 2011. This shows that good ground would not be a handicap to him in the Grand National. More of a concern would be the form he showed at the track when tackling the Becher Chase of 2011. Rare Bob’s trainer Dessie Hughes has a fine record in that race and so Rare Bob’s participation was highly anticipated but he weakened badly after the third last and was beaten over sixty lengths into fifth place. Dessie Hughes record over the Aintree fences in recent years would mean that this horse deserves consideration but his performance in the Becher Chase would dampen enthusiasm.
QUISCOVER FONTAINE 50-1
Quiscover Fontaine finished sixth in the 2010 Arkle Chase at Cheltenham to Sizing Europe so has obviously always been well regarded, Quiscover Fontaine was given an entry in the 2011 Grand National but ultimately did not take up that engagement, connections preferring instead to run in the Irish National at Fairyhouse. Willie Mullins had previously kept the French bred gelding at distances up to 2m 5f so his chances at Fairyhouse were rather unknown with relation to him getting the trip. As it turned out he stayed well to finish fourth behind Organisedconfusion. Willie Mullins did run him in the 2012 Grand National and Quiscover Fontaine was still going well when falling at the 17th fence. That run was rather ignored by most pundits as he was a relative outsider but he was still in with a great chance when he came down. Like many recent Grand National winners he has been campaigned partly over hurdles this season indicating that connections believe there is some scope with the horse’s current chase rating and he looks a very lively contender and should definitely be of interest to those punters looking to for an outsider with a good chance. Still engaged in the Irish National so make sure your bet is non-runner no bet if you are backing him for Aintree.
Milesey ( betfair )
……..and one last thing Betfair SP is always better then Best Price Guaranteed !
one example:
17:20 Cork (IE)
1st 14. County Champions
Industry SP 8
Betfair SP 10
2nd 1. Champagne Rian
Industry SP 21
Betfair SP 40.15
Milesey ( betfair )
You got too much time on your hands!! Oh it’s your job?! :-)
I’m on Holiday for 2 weeks ;) ;)
But why bet on a 100-1 shot with coral,paddy,willy, when you can get the same horse at 300-1 with betfair ? ;)
Milesey
I agree but you have to shop around to get all your money on if you want to lump on Betfair
You don’t lump it all on at once, you do bit by bit.
Milesey
What is scalping on Betfair?
Scalping is short term trading. It is a form of sports arbitrage betting. A scalping trader looks to make lots of small profits, which in time add up. Scalping relies on lots of active participants in the market. Scalping on Betfair on UK horse racing is the best place for this type of sports arbitrage betting. This is because you have lots of liquidity in these markets, in particular just before the start of the race, because you get a surge of money coming into the market.
The concept is simple, if you back a price you must lay at a lower price, or, if you lay a price you must back a higher price to make a profit. Whatever happens your profit is guaranteed and is equal to the difference or spread between the back and lay price. The Betfair betting exchange is an ideal place to trade in this way.
Scalping on Betfair basics
You can scalp any betting market. However, you must have enough people participating in the market or enough liquidity. The UK horse racing market on Betfair lends its self to scalping because of the amount of participants and volume of money entering the market. When we talk about scalping here we will be referring to UK horse racing for the reasons mentioned.
Scalping on Betfair involves pre race scalping rather than trading prices when a horse race is in play. The pre race market is not susceptible to out side events like ‘in play’ markets, reducing the risk.
Scalping a pre race market involves popping in an out of the market taking quick small profits. These are called scratch trades. With the pre race market there is no danger that the price is going to shoot off in one direction, for example, if a rider falls of the horse.
Scalping this pre race market on Betfair is good because the race hasn’t actually started. There are no physical events happening that are moving the market. But, the price still moves around enough to make money. This movement in the price is really just noise (random movement in odds). Scalping this market with larger stakes is less risky because there is no excessive volatility. Scalping on Betfair with larger stakes is where profits can really pick up.
The Betfair betting exchange is good for scalping because you can back and lay the favourite horse quickly.
If you would like an account with the Betfair betting exchange we suggest you look at our Betfair free bet page so you can get a free bet when you sign up.
Are scalping opportunities on Betfair consistent?
Scalping opportunities are presented with every UK horse racing event that is covered on the Betfair betting exchange.
Scalping common mistakes ?
Not keeping to timescale’s
Remember scalping on Betfair involves only a short timescale. You can’t let your opinion of whether or not a horse might actually win effect your judgment. Sometimes the odds movement of a horse can give the impression it might win. For example, if the odds shorten continuously this is an indication the sentiment has dramatically improved for the horse. A horse with odds like this is called a steamer. Never back a horse who looks like it might win because this is plain gambling not trading.
Not getting out quickly
Scalping on Betfair really does have to be short term. We have no idea where the price will go. If the trade becomes unprofitable, you have to assume that the loss will get worse and get out quickly. If you let a price continue to move to far you can wipe out all your profits for that session. The key is to scalp your profits quickly and and cut losses even quicker. Set an acceptable level of profit you expect possibly 2 to 3 ticks. If it moves again you cut your losses at 1 or 2 ticks. Each scalping scratch trade should have a time scale of 10 to 20 seconds at most.
Not appreciating the benefits of a scratch trade
Scratch trades are a form of scalping when the trader enters and exits the trade very quickly. This form of scalping is all about money management and involves cutting loses from loosing scalping trades quickly. Some people don’t like scratch trades because the odds can continue to move in a profitable direction after exiting the trade. This can be annoying because the trader has missed out on a profit. But, a scratch trade will get the trader out if the prices moves in the wrong direction. Trading psychology matters. A missed profit has a different effect on some people than a saved loss.
If you don’t do a lot of scratch trades losses would mount. It’s no fun spending all the time regaining losses.
It is better to not lose and not win than it is to lose then win.
Don’t let a losing trade ride as a bet
Successful traders expect to take profits and loses of about the same size. The frequency of profits should outweigh that of losses. Traders don’t want losses to get out of hand other wise you are on an up hill struggle to regain them. The worst thing you can do is hang onto a bet because it’s losing and let it play out as the race commences. This is not the way and is simply gambling.
You can lose your entire profits by doing this. So it is not advisable.
Scalping explained?
Betfair.com opened up their website to software programmers allowing third party providers to offer tools to aid Betfair traders. There are a range of software providers with systems that make scalping a lot easier. Below Adam Tod explains scalping on Betfair using his specialist software BetTrader. Adam explains the importance of exiting trades quickly known as making scratch trades.
Using scratch trades
Scratching trades may end up costing few profits but it will also save lots of losses. Many people dwell on the times when they scratch and, as soon as they did so, the trade went in the right direction and they could have made a few ticks profit if only they hadn’t scratched so quickly.
As a result they stop doing quick scratch trades. Missing that profit causes them to either forget how many times the scratch trade saves them from a loss, or they give up on the scratch trade way too soon before realizing this.
The following exercises will demonstrate how often the scratch trade can save you from losing, and will also get you into the habit of doing them. Many people don’t realize just how quickly they should scratch a trade because they feel stupid getting out of a trade so soon after getting into it, especially at the same price and so soon after getting into the position.
Remember, at this stage you are not trying to make money. Whether a trade ends up winning, losing or breaking even at this point is irrelevant.
Log into BetTrader about 10 minutes before the first UK horse race is about to start and open that race in the main display window, selecting the Ladder interface.
Select the £2 stake button, this will be the biggest bet that you will place today. There is no point in doing trades any larger than £2 bets at this stage. A good way to learn is to make as many mistakes as you can and not be afraid of getting it wrong in order to have a go. If you’re placing large trades then you will be trying to get everything right from the very start and missing out on one of your best ways of learning; to mess up a few trades!
So, with the stake button set at 2 pounds (or currency equivalent), submit a Lay bet by clicking in the pink box on the left side of the ladder next to the price you want to Lay. Remember, you are not trying to make money so whether you think that the price is going to go up or down is irrelevant. You have no opinion and do not care if you win or lose this trade.
What is important is that you get matched, so choose the price 1 tick below what the Last Traded Price was and wait to see if you get matched.
As you are waiting to get matched keep the mouse hand hovering over the blue back box on the right side of the ladder directly opposite your Lay bid.
If the price moves up then move your Lay bid up by clicking and dragging it up the next box above it. Then hover the mouse hand over the Back box opposite the new price on the right side of that same price.
As soon as your Lay bet gets matched it will disappear from the unmatched bet column and your position will display above the ladder as a green number 2. Now click your mouse so that a 2 pound Back bet gets placed at the same price at which you just Layed. The time between getting matched with your Lay bet and submitting your Back bet to get out at the same price should be less than 5 seconds.
Here are a few possible scenarios:
1. You Lay 2 @ 1.71 and as soon as you are matched you place a Back bet of 2 @ 1.71 which is matched instantly. You could see that your Back bet would be matched instantly at 1.71 because 1.71 was still strongly bid in the pink column when you submitted it. 1.72 trades out and the market goes up to 1.72/1.73.
2. You Lay 2 @ 1.71 and as soon as you are matched you place a Back bet of 2 @ 1.71 which is matched instantly. You hoped that your Back bet would be matched instantly at 1.71 because you could see that the 1.71 bid in the pink column was reducing in size as Backers were hitting it and almost immediately 1.71 trades out and the market goes down to 1.70/1.71.
3. You Lay 2 @ 1.71 and as soon as you are matched you place a Back bet of 2 @ 1.71 which is not matched instantly and remains as an unmatched bet. This is because the 1.71 bid which you were a part of got taken in full and the market went immediately to 1.70/1.71 when you got matched on your Lay. However, because you placed your Back 2@ 1.71 quickly you were very close to the front of the queue and your Back bet at 1.71 gets matched. Then 1.70 trades out and the market goes down to 1.69/1.70.
4. You Lay 2 @ 1.71 and as soon as you are matched you place a Back bet of 2 @ 1.71 which is not matched instantly and remains as an unmatched bet. This is because the 1.71 bid which you were a part of got taken in full and the market went immediately to 1.70/1.71 when you got matched on your Lay. Your Back bet doesn’t’t get matched and the market goes down to 1.69/1.70.
If done in normal trading conditions where the trader is trying to make money, Scenario 1 is often their last scratch trade! They scratch and immediately lose out on a profit. The memory of Scenario 1 stays with someone much stronger than scenarios 2 and 3 which are often forgotten about. But this shouldn’t’t be the case.
Scenarios 2 and 3 are the classic scratch trade. In both cases you have gotten out of the market quickly just as it has started to turn against you. Remember what happens immediately after you have scratched, often you will see the price move down several more ticks and if you hadn’t’t scratched when you had you would have taken a several tick loss.
Scenario 4 can be used as practice for getting out of a losing position. You are trying to Back in a falling market, experiment with how large your losses are in relation to how long you keep the position. You will find over time that the less time you are in a losing trade, the less you lose, but test this out for yourself.
Don’t take losses personally, in these scratch trade exercises we are not even trying to make a profit. And besides, the losses are tiny, each one is well worth the few pence it costs you. There’s no such thing as a free lesson, but at least the lessons are very cheap!
Your definition of success at this stage is not how much money you make but instead how many trades you manage to do in each race.
When learning to trade, trying to avoid making mistakes from the very start is the biggest obstacle to success because your attachment to the money restrains you from pressing all the buttons and seeing what happens when you try stuff.
Take advantage of being able to trade so cheap and trade, trade, trade for the next month. You’ll be amazed at how much more comfortable and knowledgeable about price movements you’ll be once you stop trying to make money and instead do loads of trades. Then you’ll be ready to start trying to make money.
For scalping on Betfair you will need a Betfair account. You will also get a free bet which you’ll be able to use to start scalping. Software from Bet Trader makes scalping horse races on Betfair easier to learn.
Milesey ( betfair )
Very interesting Milesey. I won’t be able to sleep now! You should run courses on this stuff – you could make a fortune.
Oh you already do?! :-)
hahaha, have taught a few people how to do this, and from their original playing around with £2, now try and get matched big stakes in the market, and of cause if your backing high and putting in a big stake, then the pricxe will come down and help you to get your lay in low for starters, i back the night before when the market opens, but be carefull if you do that, for some markets open and the odds are complete rubbish what they are opening at, also getting the racing post emailed so get it around 10pm the night before and can get backs in on their tips, for i know they will come down my the time the race kicks off. Not done a youtube vid yet ;) but there are loads already out there.
Milesey
Interesting stuff Milesey. You need to have the time to dedicate to it tho surely?? folk with ft jobs be struggling to access withoot their boss cutting their nuts off!! I eg cant access gambling websites at work/various firewalls
Milesey’s job is undoubtedly his hobbie as well. Ya no fancy taking up golf or something Milesey??
What’s the football picks for tomorrow ? I am up at 03:30 for a 742 mile round trip to York for argyle away , fancy is at 12/5 on a nice little run at the min York struggling , green army
F&&&in hell Bomber..700 odd mile round trip..fair play to ya. Hope ya win and have a good few bob on the win to numb the pain!!..I’ll watch with interest. Good luck
Milesy, you recommend any youtube videos on scalping?
What are your top 3 picks from your recommendations for tomorrow’s racing?
Cheers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMs3SfXiV8U
Betangel vids are quite good.
Plumpton 2.35
SASH OF HONOUR @ 2.68
Warwick 4.50
DUKE OF CLARENCE @ 3.05
Newcastle 5.25
DINGO BAY @ 3.8
Milesey
EASTER MONDAY TIPS
——————
FAKENHAM 2.15
HARRY TRICKER @ 1.48
PLUMPTON 2.35
SASH OF HONOUR @ 2.7
FAIRYHOUSE 2.40
ZAIDPOUR @ 2.14
FAKENHAM 2.45
PENMORE MILL @ 1.33
FAIRYHOUSE 3.10
SARABAD @ 7.6
FAIRYHOUSE 3.40
TENNIS CAP @ 2.48
HUNTINGDON 3.40
NICKY NUTJOB @ 4.6
WARWICK 4.50
DUKE OF CLARENCE @ 3.1
NEWCASTLE 5.25
DINGO BAY @ 3.8
Milesey ( betfair )
PLACE AND WIN
————-
MOROCCO in the 16.30 at Redcar. This gelding finished fourth to Anomaly at Newmarket last May. He held every chance a furlong from home, but found the company to hot and faded to finish out of the money.
I think he can take a step forward today and could go close at a decent price. At present he is trading at 8.2 on the exchange.
Milesey
VIEWS FROM GORDON ELLIOTT —–
16.50 Fairyhouse – Romanesco
We were delighted with his run at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir chase, staying on from off the pace under Nina Carberry to take a fast finishing third in the end. He’s been in great form since then and he’s been working well so we’ve decided to let him take his chance in what looks an extremely competitive renewal of the race. The more the ground dries out the better for it will be for him, and with his stamina assured I’m confident that the marathon trip of 3m5f will pose no problems.
He’s gone up 3lbs in the ratings to a mark of 134 for that run at Cheltenham, and I’d like to think he could still be competitive off that mark and run another solid race. He’s a nice racing weight of 10st2lbs, and with Danny Mullins booked to take the ride I’d like to think that with a bit of luck in running, which you always need in this race, he’d have a decent each way chance with conditions set to suit.
*******************************************************
*******************************************************
*******************************************************
16.50 FAIRYHOUSE
ROMANESCO 15.5 E/W
*******************************************************
*******************************************************
*******************************************************
VIEWS FROM GORDON ELLIOTT ——–
16.30 Cork – Don’t Back Down
He made a bad mistake three fences from home in a beginners chase at Down Royal a couple of weeks ago, and that put pay to any chance he may have had of winning that race. I’d say we could put a line through that run, as he had been travelling well up to that point and it’s hard to know how he would’ve got on bar that mistake. He ran a respectable race prior to that at Thurles, when he finished 4th of 13 runners behind Dessie Hughes’ Caheranoun.
He’s been in good form since Down Royal, and with a clear round I’d be hopeful that he could hopefully pick up some prize money. Enda Bolger’s horse Drawn N Drank looks the one to beat and he sets the standard and as it’s a qualified rider’s race we have the very capable Mikey Fogarty booked. I’d like to think that if he jumps around safely he could run well
*********************************************************
*********************************************************
*********************************************************
16.30 CORK
DON’T BACK DOWN @ 4.4
******** WIN ******* WIN ********
********************************************************
********************************************************
********************************************************
EASTER MONDAY TIPS
——————
FAKENHAM 2.15
HARRY TRICKER @ 1.48
PLUMPTON 2.35
SASH OF HONOUR @ 2.7
FAIRYHOUSE 2.40
ZAIDPOUR @ 2.14
FAKENHAM 2.45
PENMORE MILL @ 1.33
FAIRYHOUSE 3.10
SARABAD @ 7.6
FAIRYHOUSE 3.40
TENNIS CAP @ 2.48
HUNTINGDON 3.40
NICKY NUTJOB @ 4.6
WARWICK 4.50
DUKE OF CLARENCE @ 3.1
NEWCASTLE 5.25
DINGO BAY @ 3.8
16.30 CORK
DON’T BACK DOWN @ 4.4
16.50 FAIRYHOUSE
ROMANESCO 15.5 E/W
PLACE AND WIN
16.30 Redcar
MOROCCO @ 8.2
Milesey ( betfair )
Did you hear about the man who received a tip on a horse called Cigarette? He didn’t have enough money tabaccer!
RESULTS
——–
FAKENHAM 2.15
HARRY TRICKER @ 1.19 ** 2ND **
PLUMPTON 2.35
SASH OF HONOUR @ 2.4 ** 3RD **
FAIRYHOUSE 2.40
ZAIDPOUR @ 2.67 ** 2ND **
******FAKENHAM 2.45
PENMORE MILL @ 1.57 ** WIN *******
FAIRYHOUSE 3.10
SARABAD @ 7.6 ** 12TH **
FAIRYHOUSE 3.40
TENNIS CAP @ 2.48 ** 4TH **
HUNTINGDON 3.40
NICKY NUTJOB @ 6.98 ** 2ND **
WARWICK 4.50
DUKE OF CLARENCE @ 3.1 ** 4TH **
NEWCASTLE 5.25
DINGO BAY @ 3.8 ** 4TH **
*****16.30 CORK
DON’T BACK DOWN @ 4.4 ** WIN ******
IRISH NATIONAL TIPS
——————-
*****************************
Romanesco @ 15.5 PLACE and WIN ** FELL **
D. E. Mullins
*****************************
*****************************
Sweeney Tunes @ 13 PLACE and WIN ** 4TH **
Davy Russell
*****************************
*****************************
Home Farm @ 12 PLACE and WIN ** 3RD **
D. J. Casey
*****************************
PLACE AND WIN
16.30 Redcar
MOROCCO @ 8.2 ** 5TH **
***************************************
***************************************
STEVENAGE WIN @ 21/20 ** WIN **
STEVENAGE TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET @ 13/8 ** WIN **
***************************************
***************************************
Imperial Commander heads a list of 49 horses left in the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on Saturday following the five-day stage.
The 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup hero’s trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has won the world’s greatest steeplechase twice with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002), has also left in Major Malarkey and Viking Blond.
The big guns at the head of the market have all stood their ground, headed by ante-post favourite On His Own, whose handler Willie Mullins is also represented by Quel Esprit and Quiscover Fontaine.
Owner Trevor Hemmings has Ballabriggs, the winner in 2011, who tries again. His trainer Donald McCain also has Weird Al, Across The Bay and Cloudy Lane, who is not certain to get a run.
The second, third and fourth home 12 months ago, Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu, are set to renew rivalry while other horses with proven Aintree form are 2011 runner-up Oscar Time, 2010 fourth Big Fella Thanks and triple Topham winner Always Waining.
Colbert Station, Teaforthree, Join Together and Chicago Grey are among the other fancied horses remaining in the line-up.
Further spice is added with Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson having shares in both What A Friend and Harry The Viking, both trained by Paul Nicholls.
The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity.
Milesey
———————————–
Milesey, wasn’t on the horses but I’d picked out Stevenage and your input helped me pick them.
The T20 extravangaza that is the Indian Premier League is back next week.
Outright Winner
Last year’s beaten finalists the Chennai Super Kings are favourites to lift the IPL trophy this season at 5.5 and having claimed the title in 2011 and 2010, MS Dhoni’s men are looking strong once again. Chennai have a powerful overseas contingent but crucially, they contain the best in local Indian talent with Dhoni heading a squad that contains Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Murali Vijay and the IPL’s all-time leading run scorer Suresh Raina.
Chennai are obvious favourites but the outstanding outside pick here are the Pune Warriors. They failed to make the playoffs in 2012 but since then, key players in the squad have enjoyed a prolific 12 months with either bat or ball.
England’s Luke Wright was welcomed back by the national selectors to make his country’s highest score in an international T20 while Marlon Samuels has finally matured to produce the talent to back up his immense potential.
Elsewhere, Tamim Iqbal, Yuvraj Singh and new signing Ross Taylor will bolster the batting while Sri Lanka’s mystery spinner Ajantha Mendis is rediscovering his best form just at the right time. The bowling attack will be headed by Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Ashok Dinda who have both made significant international breakthroughs in the last twelve months.
Pune have been hit by the news that Michael Clarke is likely to miss the tournament through injury but there is enough batting talent in this squad to cover for the loss of the Aussie skipper. The Warriors are out at a generous 12.0 outright win market and are a sound option at 3.05 for a top four finish.
Recommended Bet: Back the Pune Warriors at 12.0
Top Batsman
Chris Gayle of Royal Challengers Bangalore is a clear favourite for the top run scorer bet at 4.3 and after he topped the IPL run charts in 2012 and 2011, it will be hard to see past the powerful Jamaican in this market. However, the left hander has been uncharacteristically inconsistent over the last 12 months.
There have been low points – at the end of 2012, Gayle made just 72 from five ODI innings against a weak Bangladesh attack – but there have been incredible highs as well. In February this year, he made a memorable 114 from just 51 balls for Dhaka in the BPL to underline his potential for a third successive win in this IPL market.
However, a strong outside bet is Gayle’s Royal Challengers team mate Cheteshwar Pujara. The 25-year-old is primarily known as a patient and prolific run scorer who has yet to win a full limited overs cap but Pujara proved in the final innings of the fourth test against Australia that he can score quickly.
As India chased down a potentially testing target of 155 to win, Pujara made an undefeated 82 from 91 balls in a game with no fielding restrictions. He’s similar to other players such as Hashim Amla and Alastair Cook in that he can score heavily in all forms of the game and at odds of 26.0 he looks a superb option for this bet.
Recommended Bet: Back Cheteshwar Pujara at 26.0
Top Bowler
Sri Lanka’s Lasith Malinga is the favourite at 2.42 in 2013’s top bowler market after finishing third in the table last season with 22 victims from 14 matches. ‘The Slinger’ is the all-time leading wicket taker in IPL cricket with 83 and as recently as December 2012, he took the incredible T20 figures of 6/7 for Melbourne Stars in Australia’s Big Bash.
Malinga is a natural favourite but it’s a little surprising to see Sunil Narine out at 3.6 in this market after the Kolkata Knight Riders’ star man finished ahead of Malinga in second place last season. Like all ‘mystery spinners’ Narine has been through a difficult period where wickets haven’t fallen as frequently as they have done in the past.
2012 saw the 24-year-old make his entry into Test cricket but modest returns and the emergence of Shane Shillingford suggests that he is some way away from a return into the five-day game.
However, in IPL cricket, teams will have to get after Narine – meaning more false shots – and he is destined to bowl the important overs at the start and death of an innings when wickets tumble more frequently. At those odds of 3.6 he could be the bargain bet of this whole tournament.
Recommended Bet: Back Sunil Narine at 3.6
Back the favourites outright
The thrills, spills and turnarounds associated with the T20 might give the impression that cricket’s shortest format is something of a lottery. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The formbook has stood up remarkably well in this league, with the usual suspects tending to reach the final-four play-offs every year. Chennai have never missed the play-offs, winning the title twice and losing two finals. Mumbai have reached the last three play-offs. Bangalore three of the last four.
In footballing terms, Chennai are the IPL’s Manchester United. Their star-studded batting line-up goes so deep that low first innings totals are extremely rare, while even the unlikeliest run-chases become possible when your middle-order consists of Raina, Dhoni and Dwayne Bravo, with several more capable hitters further down. Their consistency makes a play-off spot a virtual certainty, at which stage the current 5.5 will offer the chance to bank a considerable profit if desired.
Equally there’s plenty to like about defending champions Kolkata at 7.0 in anticipation of a third consecutive play-off appearance. Led by a classy, well-balanced top-three of Gambhir, McCullum and Kallis, Kolkata’s impressive squad includes Sunil Narine, who could be the star bowler of the tournament.
Recommended Bets
Back Chennai Super Kings @ 5.5
Back Kolkata Knight Riders @ 7.0
Back openers in the Top Run Scorer market
Due to a plethora of world-class names, this looks like a wide-open betting heat, but once again history suggests the appearance is deceptive. The top batsman in all five previous IPLs was an opener and in the last four cases, an easy one to identify. Chris Gayle has won the last two, preceded by Sachin Tendulkar and Matthew Hayden. This is no coincidence – in 20 over matches, openers are bound to get more and longer innings. If their side chases down a low target easily, they may be the only batsmen to get a meaningful innings.
Gayle is a skinny 5.0 to complete the hat-trick, but if you’re happy to take the big man on, the next shortest price is 17.0. I like the chances of the players who finished second, third and fourth last year, all of whom are openers. That was the second time Gautam Gambhir has been second in this market and is around 21.0 to go one better. Like Gayle, he captains his side and will therefore play as often as possible. Last year’s third Shikhar Darwan carried his side through a terrible run and is a live candidate again at a big price, as is Rajasthan Royals opener Ajinkya Rahane.
Recommended Bets
Back Gautam Gambhir @ 21.0
Back Shikhar Darwan @ 36.0
Back Ajinkya Rahane @ 40.0
In-play tactics
Back to lay extreme outcomes, especially in the innings runs markets
There are of course many great turnarounds in IPL, which make it tempting to employ the simplisitic trading maxim to ‘Back High, Lay Low’. There’s little sense, however, in blindly backing that turnaround without measuring the likelihood based on the specific circumstances. When betting in-running, the best advice is simply to follow conditions closely to gauge what constitutes a par total. Whether the pitch, overhead conditions and ground stats are liable to produce much higher or lower than par. The predictions of pundits and captains are not wholly reliable, but they’re generally a good guide.
Rather than the match odds market, the best place to find massive price upsets is the Innings Runs market. Here, there is an option for each band of ten (i.e. 120 or more, 130 or more etc). Very short odds-on chances, even going down to the minimum 1.01, have repeatedly been turned over in this market as a result of batting collapses or an explosive spell of big-hitting.
In order to maximise the potential of this volatile market, my advice is to take a view, either before or early during in the innings, on whether the total is likely to be above or below the par score. Once making that decision, back the bands 20 or 30 above or below par in your chosen direction. Pick the right way and you’ll have an excellent trading position.
Back short totals at big odds in the 6 Over Total market
The 6 Over Total market is another volatile affair, although here I’m inclined to stick with ‘unders’ when conditions suit. Whereas there is a realistic limit to the upside during the early slog, there are always a few very low totals when batting teams completely fail to master early conditions against strike bowlers. Lose a couple of wickets in the first three overs, and most teams will opt to consolidate before rebuilding during the middle overs. It is certainly not unheard of for a team to score below 20 during this opening period. Obviously, as with all in-running markets, keep an eye on overhead conditions and captains’ comments at the toss regarding whether the wicket is expected to be lively first up.
TUESDAY 2ND APRIL 2013
HORSE RACING TIPS
SOUTHWELL 4.20
ELUSIVE HAWK
ELUSIVE HAWK travelled strongly when notching over track and trip last Monday and rates the one to beat now turned out under a penalty.
ELUSIVE HAWK arrives in fine fettle and is hard to oppose. He scored at Kempton before last week’s cosy win over track and trip and can shrug off a penalty in this.
Winner of seven races at 6f including 5 wins on the all-weather (4 FB, 1 PO). Won on his latest outing when 11-8fav over this course and distance last month, beating Ace Master by 1 3/4l. Carries a 6lb penalty today for that success. Has also won at Kempton this season.
KEMPTON 3.30
CLOCK OPERA
preference is for the William Stone-trained Clock Opera, who was outpaced over 6f last time and may improve for this extra furlong. The booking of Richard Hughes also appears significant on his handicap debut.
Placed twice in five starts. Beaten 4 1/2l by Sand Boy when second of 5 at 3-1 on her latest outing here over 6f in January. Having her first run for a new stable today, previously with Mrs K Burke.
KEMPTON 4.00
FLEUR DE LA VIE
FLEUR DE LA VIE signed off 2012 by landing a polytrack hat-trick over this trip, including over C&D for the middle leg. Ralph Beckett’s mare returns from a 225-day break but a 7lb rise may not be sufficient to stifle her improvement if returning in the same mood.
She has won three times at 1m 4f on polytrack. Won on her latest outing when 2-1fav at Wolverhampton over 1m 4f in August last year, beating Honest Deal by 3 1/2l.
EXETER 4.10
ROBIN WILL
ROBIN WILL comes into this on the back of impressive wins over 3m here and at Leicester and the drop in trip should not be too much of a problem so he should take all the beating.
Successful in two chases at 2m 7f and 3m on good to soft and soft ground. Won on his latest outing in a chase when 4-6fav here over 3m (soft) last month, beating Vintage Class by 27l. Has won 3 times this season.
FAIRYHOUSE 4.05
DAYS HOTEL
It’s difficult to look past DAYS HOTEL. With a top rating of 159, he is very well off at these weights and will prove a tough nut to crack if arriving in the same mood as when readily landing a Grade 2 prize at Naas last time. His biggest danger looks to be Foildubh.
Another small field in which DAYS HOTEL can complete a quartet of Grade 2 victories. Henry De Bromhead’s classy chaser has been beaten just once in his last five starts, when tackling a longer trip at Thurles in January, and his comfortable defeat of Realt Dubh at Naas the following month looks good enough for this
Winner of a hurdle race and four chases at 2m on ground varying from soft to soft – heavy. Won on his latest outing in a Grade 2 chase when 5-4fav in the Group 2 paddypower.com Chase at Naas over 2m (soft – heavy) in February, beating Realt Dubh by 6l.
FAIRYHOUSE 6.35
TAMMYS HILL
TAMMYS HILL should prove a cut above these rivals. His record in this sphere is mightily impressive (won or been placed in each of his eight hunter chase appearances when completing) and a repeat of his neck defeat at the hands of subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Salsify at Leopardstown two runs back would make him near impossible to beat.
This should prove a walk in the park for TAMMYS HILL, who twice beat Salsify before narrowly beaten by the Cheltenham winner at Leopardstown. He was racing over a trip too short when behind Warne here in February and should get back on the winning trail.
He has won four chases from 2m 6f to 3m on ground varying from good to soft – heavy. Beaten 6l by Warne when second of 11 at 4-6fav on his latest outing in a chase here over 2m 5f (soft) in February.
Milesey ( betfair )