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ALAN has three Thursday fancies including Zodiakos to take the mile handicap at Southwell for in-form Roger Fell.
Southwell 3.40
ZODIAKOS is a proven Fibresand performer and with Roger Fell’s stable hitting top form he can land the mile handicap at Southwell. The gelding has finished runner-up on four occasions since scoring over course and distance at the end of November and deserves further reward for consistency. It’s hard to see him finishing out of the money.
Newcastle 4.05
At Newcastle, LOPES DANCER looks a bit of value in the opening 1m 4f handicap. He led two out before being caught close home by Loud And Clear in mid-December and may have the edge over course specialist Trautman. His form figures of 1-1-2-3 from four runs tell its own story.
Newcastle 7.30
LION HEARTED was no great shakes in Ireland but he landed a fair old gamble at Chelmsford City last week on his British debut for Mick Appleby. He scorched home by six lengths and escapes a penalty as it was an apprentices’ race. This should be a cake-walk on form but we’ve had some funny results at Newcastle this winter, with the track riding testing on occasions, especially when there is a fierce headwind.
The first at Southwell- high anxiety … first run for new trainer…runs well here. Can see a place!
Eachway 20/1
How confident are you on this one?
NAP: Cyrseo Cymraeg 3/1 2.05 Southwell
(I’m doing Cover bet 3 places @ 2/1)
Double @ 5/1
Divine Image 7/4 3.05 Meydan
Gregarious Girl 6/5 5.15 Newcastle
Nice nap, well done. Gl for the others
Nothing from me today again guys, weather claiming a lot of fixtures.
Good luck all 🍻
I cant post bets up today keeps coming up blank
Will have to leave it today typed out several times but wont post for some reason
L15 E/W
Devine Call 1.35 s
The locke Master 2.05 s
Geography Teacher 2.40 s
Dashing Poet 3.40 s
Luiz De Torres 4.10 s
GL
and this site don’t work
Are site problems anything to do with this being Friday?
Just a crazy selection from me today, inspired by ewthief, follow at own risk as I know nothing about horses:
Southwell 13:35 – High Anxiety 25/1 (Thanks Chuckbass)
Southwell 14:05 – The Lock Master 16/1
Newcastle 16:40 – Gowanbuster 14/1
Newcastle 19:30 – Wontgetfooledagen 28/1
Have done singles and ew doubles, trebles, and quadruples.
Good luck to all today.
5 ..1.35 1..2.40 2..3.10 4..4.05 try this then
Zodiakos Analysis:
Finished 2nd 4 races in a row (60, 63, 66, 66), won 5 races ago (60). Besides LTO, those 4 races have been with a 7lb claimer, so he ‘actually’ ran off 53, 53, 56 and 59. His latest 2nd was in an apprentice race where today’s jockey claimed 3, so OR was 63.
Today we have the same jockey as LTO, but his claim is back to 5lbs, so he is 2lbs better off, distances have all been the same, with 2 of those 6 coming at today’s course, the other 4 were all AW.
LTO, he was 2.75l 2nd, the horse 3 starts ago won by 5 lengths off 65. He won LTO, rated 76 with a 5lb claim so was effectively 71 when beating Zodiakos by 2.75l. The 3rd was a head behind including his claimer, he was rated 70, so Zodiakos beat a horse rated 70 off 63 and has been ‘dropped’ 2lbs.
Over today’s C&D, in December, Zodiakos lost by 2.75l to a horse rated 66, he was 10lbs better on the day. However, the horse won NTO off 72. All of these races have been class 5. The same horse then went up to class 3 and finishing 0.5l 2nd to a 5/4f. The horse is called Showboating for anyone interested, and this seems like a strong form line.
5/1 wasn’t an EW price, but the ew price has now gone as he is 7/2. Alan has had a rough time so I decided to look at the paper side of things for followers.
The danger is DASHING POET, she won over CD 3 starts back. Today she is 2lbs lower as Jane Elliot takes off 3, the form from her races hasn’t worked out amazingly on the face of it HOWEVER, LTO, she was a head behind a horse effectively rated 72 over C&D. 10LBS higher than she races off today, so that is very promising.
At a bigger price, I really like SW Kelly, he races on HAVELOCK, 9/1. Racing off 57, he hasn’t been up too much besides LTO. He started his racing off off 77 and placed a few times off 72. He has beat Bond Angel already over CD lto, and today they race in the same conditions, that horse is half the price. A little bit of a punt, but worth a stab for me.
So I haven’t looked at every other horse so who knews what sand donkey could pop up however, I think Zodiakos has a real good chance, and should DEFINITELY place at worst. I will however opt for DASHING POET, and try an RFC. With the EW option being Havelock, get the extra place at 365 at 15/2 or even go 5 places, 5th place 6/1.
quick look at LOPES DANCER, and him alone. and i think he has a good chance too. joe fanning is the man and the horse is back down from 2m to 1m4f and has good recent form over CD when 2nd to Loud and Clear.
However…..
THAWRY is worth a look, currently around 6/1, he is from the A. Brittain yard which I wrote about last week. He is owned by the trainer, who loves the AW. Here is the interesting part… The selection races off the same mark as when 4th lto, however, the 4th was a 1.75l blanket type of finish, and yes you guessed it, he didn’t have a claimer on. Today, Brittain puts on his regular claimer, and he takes off 7lbs.
LTO, the selection was 0.5l behind 3rd, the 3rd horse was rated 74, that horse has had 6 races in total, 3 rated. His results, oldest first: 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 3. The two previous wins were off 71, THAWRY runs off 64.
2nd placed that day was Dommersen, 1.75l in front of Thawry. That horse last four races are 2, 2, 2, 1. After his 5lb claimer has been taken out, he was rated 72, 72, 74 and 74.
The winner of the race, a neck in front of Dommersen was Glan Y Gors, form figues of 2, 1, 1 winning off 64 and 65, so he has a high ceiling and used to be a hurdles horse.
Without looking at the other horses, Thawry has excellend form on paper and despite two places, you can get around 6/1 and is worth every penny on the nose and each way, and even a RFC with alan’s tip perhaps.
just a note.
i use 365, in their race review of the 405, it says trauttman beat thawry.. a mistake maybe but it is an outright lie, as this isn’t the case…