Besides having a German in the final, the organisers of the Stuttgart Open couldn’t have wished for a better climax to the tournament. Young gun Jack Draper takes on former world No. 6 and Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini to determine who will walk away with the first grass court spoils of 2024.
Can Draper grab some crucial form ahead of Wimbledon? Or will Berrettini win the trophy he’s claimed twice before in Stuttgart? Read on for our Draper vs Berrettini prediction and betting tips.
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Player Form: Both Looking Great on Grass
It has been an absolute pleasure to watch both Draper and Berrettini on the grass this week. Each are fantastic movers on the surface, and have games well-suited to the slick green.
For Draper, his serve has been nigh on unstoppable. In his victory over defending champion Tiafoe, he rocketed down an impressive 31 aces. Most recently, the Brit ran past Next Gen rival Brandon Nakashma in just over an hour to book his spot in the final.
Berrettini has been equally impressive. He came through an arm-wrestle of an opening match against Roman Safiullin, winning 7-5 in the third, before overcoming a tough challenge from Denis Shapovalov in the second round too.
Most recently, it’s been two straight set wins for the Italian, with Berrettini ultra-impressive against countryman Lorenzo Musetti in the semi-finals. The veteran dropped just four games, running past the No. 5 seed 6-4, 6-0 to make yet another final in Germany.
How the Bookies View It: Edge to Berrettini
Interestingly, Berrettini has the edge at bookmaker bet365. Despite his lower ranking and relatively low volume of matches played the past few years, bookies respect his grass court credentials. The Italian is at 8/13 to win, with Draper behind at 13/10. Set betting has Berrettini winning 2-0 at 13/8, but it’s tight with a handicap of just -1.5 given to the two-time champion.
Recent Head-to-Head: Nothing to See Here
This will be the first meeting between Draper and Berrettini on the ATP Tour.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Draper is one win away from winning his first ATP Tour title for the third time in his career. Late last year he made the final of Sofia, while earlier this year he played the last match in Adelaide. Will it be third time lucky for the 22-year-old?
The Brit also becomes the new British No. 1 on Monday for the first time, and is the youngest player to achieve the feat.
For Berrettini, this is the first event he’s played since Monte-Carlo. Yet, the Italian has two things in his favour: a track record of not requiring many matches to get back up to speed, and a fine resume on grass.
Both players come into this match fresh, having raced through their semi-finals in just over an hour.
Draper vs Berrettini Betting Tips & Predictions
We’re not with the bookies on this one. Draper’s form this week puts him as the favourite in our eyes. The fact that Berrettini is the betting favourite actually works in our favour here–it gives better odds for a Draper win, and takes some of the pressure off him as well. Back the Brit to take his first title here.
- Draper to win @ 13/10
- Draper to win 2-1 @ 7/2
The Stuttgart Open final will be played at 1pm local time on Sunday, so get your bets in before then.
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