WITH two weeks to go, followers from last week saw a clean sweep of winners, so identifying value at this stage really bodes with the position of the table, and who can still qualify and with our approach, you will get unbeatable punting data to support recommendations.
The permutations show that MVG and Wright will be at the play off in two weeks time with the chasing of the other two spots all in the hands of the other six positions, although Wade who is three points off qualifying is realistically out of it with an extraordinary set of results where Wade could still sneak through.
As ever backing all the shortest priced odds on Wright, Barney, Anderson and MVG will pay 7/1 with some firms. All games to draw pays 803/1 with Skybet and backing all the underdogs not to lose pays 28/1 in places (Wade, Taylor, Chisnall and Lewis)
Week 14 fixtures:
- Wright Vs Lewis – Lewis leads 17-12
- Barney Vs Chisnall – Barney leads 11-6 (1 draw)
- Wade Vs Anderson – Anderson leads 28-16 (4 draws)
- MVG Vs Taylor – Taylor leads 31-24 (2 draws)
Wright Vs Lewis
Since Wrights defeat at the Matchplay last July, Snakebite's four win streak dominates the head to head including a reverse fixture win for the UK Open champion. Wright at 10/13, Lewis at 3's and the tie at 7/2 has been taken in the respect that Wright will want to nail second or third spot to avois MVG in the semi final in two weeks time and will confirm this avoiding defeat to jackpot, who really has to win to solidify his chances of accelerating to a bigger prize.
With the permutations at stake, Wright should be the least relaxed of the pair, with a point almost solidifying second place and a win sealing it. The pressure will be more so on Jackpot and netting a mere four maximums in the last two weeks over 21 legs and Wright pocketing just three in 20 legs sees us locked on the under market maximums. Marathonbet are 9/10 on fewer than seven maximums in the game. It is felt that recent changes like Wright's ever tweaked set up versus Lewis under increasing pressure for position makes sense in our eyes, there is some leverage to see this home.
Barney Vs Chisnall
If the last three in the head to head go to plan, than there will be plenty backing the five time World Champion Barney, especially throwing first and at 13/10 across the industry. Both players are subject to needing the win to make their claim for the o2 possible. Chisnall is actually unbeaten since judgement night, so in theory is the better in form player between the two despite his 7/4 price tag.
With both players both in the chase this could go any one of three scenarios, and similar to the win lose or draw scenario. Chisnall is certainly the stronger maximum hitter with 60 and Barney on 51. Chisnall is averaging 0.4137 maximums per leg in the 145 legs played versus the Dutchman averaging 0.3445 maximums per leg in comparison. Chisnall is best 8/11 to win the maximum count, but only best priced 6/5 to win by two or more, which in my view is not an accurate representation. The 8/11is just about a taker on the basis Barney is less fluent than Chisnall in this market.
Wade Vs Anderson
In eight meetings from a year ago, Anderson has beaten the machine just twice. The last encounter back on week four experienced a tie, with the game having fairly little to speak about in reflection.
ith the last four matches heading under, short but sweet Wade to hit under a 96 average on the basis that since the second phase has achieved this just once having begun the campaign positively hitting above this for the opening three weeks. May be Wade is due a higher average this week, but the pressure is on the machine to win both matches. By this stage he could be even out of making the top four making this a potential care-free Wade. However, flipping the situation the more pressure overall on Wade may actually affect their performance and will take this bet one more time.
MVG Vs Taylor
It does not feel that long ago where the pair met in a final where the pair was priced at effectively even money either way. Fast forward and in a best of twelve game Taylor is BIG at 13/2 by Blacktype bookmakers. Presumably keen to take on the Power, or in hindsight not wanting to take on MVG at a lowly 1/4 where 188bet are 4/11 for a Green Machine victory.
MVG has qualified for the finals, but will discover how much work he has left to do to pocket the league winners bonus before finals night. Worse case scenario is Wright is equal on points. Taylor himself in my view will be quite care free than usual believing his retirement pledge as only those in similar shoes could possibly have a view on this.
Taylor is off soon and expect him back for a final premier league campaign next year. In the campaign a year ago, MVG edged the Power 7-5 before losing out to MVG in the final.
If there is a repeat scoreline of the last encounter 7-4 in MVG's favour is 4-1 with the industry, whereas those speculating a closer encounter of 7-4 or 7-5 can get 2/1 with Hills or if “Dutched” so backed as two singles with adjusted staked would return just over 2/1 if this outcome occurs.
MVG is 8/15 to see win 7-4 or better with a 6/5 for 7-3 or better. One bet I see with fair mileage is the game to see fewer than seven maximums at even money with Betfair. The reverse game saw just three and see this as having a fair chance.
Recommendations
- Wright/Lewis -U6.5 180s – 9/10 Marathonbet 1.5pts
- Chisnall most 180s Vs Barney – 8/11 Skybet 1pt
- Wade U96.00 average – 5/6 Betway – 1.5 pts
- MVG/Taylor – U6.5 180s – 1/1 Betfair 1.5pts
