WE SAW twenty-nine maximums last week on the night as Phil Taylor extended his lead at the top of the table by four points as Taylor edged out old foe Barneveld whilst MVG dropped a point with his fourth draw of the campaign versus defending champion Gary Anderson.
Just before we head to this week’s preview, we have identified a trend on a particular weekly special, which you may/may not decide to take on.
Looking at the total legs two weeks before judgement night
- Week 11 – 56 legs
- Week 10 – 56 legs
- Week 9 – 59 legs
- Week 8 – 59 legs
- Week 7 – 57 legs
Betway total legs market:
- 55-60 legs – 11/10 (47.62%)
- 52-54 legs – 6/4 (40%)
- 51 or less – 7/2 (22,22%)
As the competition hot's up, surely you have seen a worse 11/10 shot based on the latest five weeks. There are many other special markets on a weekly basis.
The five bookie favourites this week (MVG to beat Wright, Lewis to beat Barney, Taylor, Anderson and MVG to beat Lewis pays 17/2 at Marathonbet)
This week’s fixtures and stats:
MVG Vs Wright
MVG leads 33-8
MVG has quite the record against Peter Wright and does appear when we see Wright play MVG that he finds it difficult to unpick the green machine. Bookies wager MVG a huge favourite and will be attracted to the 4/11 offered by BetVictor to fill their accumulators on Thursday.
MVG has won all of the last seven meeting spanning back to the World Matchplay in July 2015
Three of the last seven has been in finals – all won by MVG
MVG leads 3-1-0 in the Premier League, where three of the last four games went the distance
Wright is without a win in two now, with a top four ever challenging
All of the last five MVG matches have gone the dozen legs!
MVG walked it in their last meeting in the Premier League and have seen Wright edge out to a massive 6/1 to beat MVG. Wright is 4/5 with Betfair with a +3.5 leg headstart and 11/5 for the most 180s with MVG 5/6 with firms to repeat the 4-3 victory on count back in week five.
It is worth noting that Paddy Power still have the 97.50 3-dart average line in place, which Wright has fallen under rather than over in the last three weeks. Sponsors Betway are 7/4 the game sees a deciding leg and 2/5 against.
Bettors that like the MVG win can boost this to evens with Paddy Power and Skybet to win the maximum market and the match. With a higher checkout the Irish firm again are 15/8 for this feat.
With Wright tinkering with his darts, this flaws betting opportunities as unless in the know it is hit and miss with Wright. A few months ago we did see some consistency with Wright, even edging confidence in a market that is not as associated with snakebite and this is maximum markets. Before Christmas we cashed in on this adopting our pricing policy.
Although a coin toss effectively, I do think the even money for maximums with MVG and winning the match is the way to possibly consider. On the basis Wright continues to tinker with his darts, his less than natural throw is a good enough reason to consider opposing this. Although MVG can hit maximums for fun, if pressured in the game should elevate him a gear and there is a more than reasonable chance this will land.
MVG will need to think about picking up maximum points on the night, so will look at him not drawing the game out and edging this with minimal fuss. The even money bet could go off at odds on come Thursday, so get on quick, before the next punter potentially sees the odds change.
Barney Vs Lewis
Barney leads 27-20
The pair have enjoyed two draws in the Premier League, despite the number of times the pair has met. The experienced players have faced off 10 times since the turn of 2015, where Lewis has won eight including the last five.
Lewis has amassed eight wins in the last ten meetings, with their last meeting in the Premier League going Lewis’s way by virtue of the final leg.
The pair traded wins in the 2015 Premier League competition
Lewis is unbeaten in nearly a year and the sixth meeting heading into this.
Lewis is the overwhelming layers favourite at a general 10/11 with the Dutch master 23/10 and the draw 9/2. With Barney on throw, it did look like last week Barney started the head negativity again, but was able to see out the final game to boost his position, although a top four will need Barney to win the remainder of his games. Of course will need results on his side being five points adrift.
Looking at the 3-dart average Barney is at 97.50 and has landed the under in the last three games. Paddy Power are 5/6 on the line. The maximum line is set at 6.5 and is worth noting the last meeting saw the game into the final leg to see this head over.
Anderson Vs Wade
Anderson leads – 26-11
The defending Premier League Champion Anderson has enjoyed good records of the machine and will look to extend his 18-month streak without defeat spanning back to October 2014 and eleven maches.
The last two Premier League meetings has ended in draws and will be difficult to look past Anderson and backers of the double chance my ACCA up at 1/4. Both men need a win, which comes back to the age old which player has the greater need.
One key strength of James Wade is his checkout ability, which compensates for his less than fluent throw compared to some other dart players which conclude
Wade on achieving less maximums in general when the rhythm is off keel. When Wade gets an outshot you can imagine traders hiding under their desks as the first dart lands and this week, the checkout line is based on the given handicap to Anderson.
Remembering that Wade has drawn the last two games and the other before than going eleven legs, an over 94.50 checkout has a fair chance of landing. He did the business for us on a couple occasions hitting the big number and has a fair chance of landing this again.
Taylor Vs Thornton
Taylor leads 20-6
Taylor has won all of the last four meetings in the Premier League including the last meeting earlier this term whitewashing Thornton in his darker hours. The pair has met just five times in the last two years, with Taylor winning all of the last four.
Taylor has been dominant at times, although a little vulnerable at times. Thornton is out to cause as much nuisance as possible now his qualifying campaign is over and is merely fighting for position. Thornton has demonstrated this with two 100+ averages. We are inclined not to take into account
Thornton’s last match, going on last for reasons already given. Paddy Power are giving Thornton the 95.50 average line and we are willing to give this another go on the basis that if Taylor is dominant this will help the average if Thornton is not receiving many chances to checkout.
Lewis Vs MVG
MVG leads 26-12
This game may be influenced on the performances from earlier in the evening. We have noticed a few trends where players have played twice in an evening.
MVG is 4/7 against the throw to beat Lewis, who is 9/2 and the same price for the draw. In games where players has played twice, the averages:
Barney* 92.53 Vs Thornton* 88.16 – Week 11
Taylor* 92.91 Vs Wade* 91.50 – Week 10
MVG 97.57 Vs Thornton* 95.59 – Week 8
Anderson* 102.75 Vs Wright 101.31 – Week 7
Wade* 101.85 Vs Taylor 111.20 – Week 2
Smith* 80.97 Vs Lewis 100.03 – Week 1
*denotes players competing twice
As you can determine, especially in the last five occasions, players throwing for the second time of the night has seen a lessor display, with the smart hedge on the under’s in potentially scrappy displays at times.
I am not a huge fan of the final match when two players face off twice. I would think MVG would be less scrappy than Lewis and am confident enough to consider MVG for the most 180s in the game at 20/21 with Betfair sportsbook.
Recommendations:
- MVG & Most 180s Vs Wright – 1/1 Paddy Power/Skybet 3pts
- Under 6.5 180s (Barney/Lewis) – 10/11 Betway 1.5pts
- J Wade – Over 94.50 checkout – 11/13 Bwin – 1.5 pts
- R Thornton – over 95.50 average – 5/6 Paddy Power 1pt
- MVG (Vs Lewis) most 180s – 20/21 Betfair Sportsbook – 2pts
