Scarface certainly ran a good race yesterday after decent support saw him go off a little shorter than the advised odds of 13/2. Unfortunately, he could only manage second, and I couldn’t say that he was unlucky either, with the winner well clear. A very credible effort, but not enough to collect. Moving on.
| Newbury - 12:40 |
Twinjets |
5/1 |
Nobody needs me to tell them that there are a couple of decent cards on Saturday, with a handful of interesting races to have a go at, both at Newbury and Newcastle, so best of luck if you’re getting involved with those. The pick of the bunch as far as I’m concerned may just be Twinjets, who goes in the second race at Newbury.
Far from fully exposed, this second-year chaser, who runs for Paul Nicholls, ran very well at this venue last time out, delivering a performance that is tricky to ignore, while this step back up in trip looks set to suit too.
Recent form was given a big boost on Friday
The gelding wasn’t beaten far when running earlier this month, and he improved on what was a modest return to action back in October. A further step in the right direction is far from out of the question, especially with the Nicholls yard having fired in the winners of late.
More importantly, his recent form received a sizable boost on Friday, when the horse who beat him at Newbury last time out went on to finish a very solid second in a Grade 2 event, which is not to be ignored.
It’s not difficult to see that the seven-year-old meets some of the more obvious race trends here, while it’s worth mentioning that Paul Nicholls is no stranger to finding one suitable for this contest, winning the race twice since 2018.
Having had not one but two spins prior to this race, I’d argue that the mount of Harry Cobden has a fitness edge over several of these, including a couple that occupy similar positions in the betting.
If we factor in that Nicholls has a near 29% strike-rate at Newbury in 2024, 5/1 looks to have some juice in it. If we take everything into consideration, it’s not difficult to make a case for him being the favourite, which he may be by the time they jump off. Early doors, 5/1 is a price worth taking.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 68 Naps) has a running P/L of +£65.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
