It wasn't to be on Wednesday as we never really got to see what Ultra Beat had, with the gelding falling early doors. Not the first to do that, won’t be the last.
| Newbury - 14:30 |
Scarface |
13/2 |
Ahead of Friday’s action, it’s all about Newbury, where I’m primarily interested in Scarface, who runs in the event taking place at 14:30, a Class 2 chase over an extended two miles and three furlongs.
The mount of Brendan Powell has fallen slightly in the weights and after two modest (at best) efforts since returning for the season, may now be ready to put his best foot forward in what can be described as a slightly lesser race than his most recent one.
Dangerous to dismiss back up in trip from a falling mark
In two runs so far this season, the gelding has shown little, there can be no denying that, but running over trips that were almost certainly inadequate at Exeter and Cheltenham, I’d argue that connections weren’t trying to win. Instead, it’s likely that they were looking to get the handicapper to relent a little ahead of a more realistic task, which is what has happened, with the gelding now sitting 3 lbs lower in the weights than when he reappeared.
Back in April, the seven-year-old won a Class 2 affair at Plumpton from a mark of 128, and he did it really well that day forging clear in a race not dissimilar to this, so I’d argue that a mark of 130 is well within his reach.
Going back over further here is a clear plus, and it’s fair to say that he knows how to get the job done over this trip, winning three of his previous six races at the distance.
Last but certainly not least, trainer Joe Tizzard has had his string in decent form of late, winning with 29% of his runners in the last fortnight, while his record at Newbury since setting out on his own back in 2022 is far from displeasing.
For my money, this one ticks a few too many boxes for 13/2 not to be considered on the chunky side. Such odds should definitely be taken by those seeking a decent value bet ahead of Friday’s action.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 67 Naps) has a running P/L of +£75.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
