Former world heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua will look to reclaim his throne at the iconic Wembley Stadium on 21st September 2024.
Daniel Dubois, who is the current ruler of the IBF heavyweight realm, will step into the ring to defend his crown for the first time. Can he extend his reign, or is Joshua going to take back his lost kingdom? Here’s our Joshua vs Dubois prediction.
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Tale of the tape
His current record stands at 28-3, with 25 of his wins coming via brutal knockouts. Two of his three defeats came against Oleksandr Usyk. Since his back-to-back losses to the Ukrainian, however, Joshua has been on a four-fight winning streak.
Daniel Dubois is also a force to be reckoned with in the division though.
‘Dynamite’ has only tasted defeat twice in his 23-fight career, both times falling victim to powerful punches—once by the relentless Joe Joyce and more recently by the magnificent Oleksandr Usyk.
Joshua vs Dubois hot tip: Joshua to win & under 7.5 rounds
This is shaping up to be a display of incredible firepower.
Since both fighters boast 90%+ knockout win ratios, we are quite confident that the fight will not go the distance. While Dubois has the age advantage and raw power on his side, we believe Joshua will bank on his technical acumen and experience to come out on top.
The fight should wrap up within 7.5 rounds, and Joshua should be the winner.
Joshua vs Dubois: Key stats
- Joshua is more experienced in longer bouts than his upcoming adversary. 13 of his fights lasted seven rounds or more, while only five of Dubois’ fights have stretched beyond the seventh round mark.
- Joshua ranks among the top-10 heavyweights for punches thrown per round, unleashing an average of 37.7 strikes, with a remarkable 11.7 successful hits. Dubois, while a powerful puncher, falls outside the top 10 in both categories.
- In his seven-round showdown with Robert Helenius, Joshua unleashed a relentless barrage of punches. He threw a staggering 204 strikes, connecting with a remarkable 74. His jab, a weapon of precision, landed 56 times out of 157 attempts. Meanwhile, his powerful right and left hands found their mark 18 times out of 47 tries.
- Dubois also put up a brutal display of power in his last outing. Despite being the underdog, he aimed 346 strikes at Filip Hrgovic, with 116 of them landing on the Croatian. His jab has found the target 54 times out of 197 attempts. Dubois also showered Hrgovic with 149 power punches, 62 of those were successful.
Fight odds and win probability
Here are the current Joshua vs Dubois odds:
Anthony Joshua: 29/10 (1.29) – Implied probability 77.5%
Daniel Dubois: 10/3 (4.33) – Implied probability 23.1%
Draw: 25/1 (26.00) – Implied probability 3.8%
*Joshua vs Dubois betting odds from Betfred, subject to change.
Keys to victory
Our official Joshua vs Dubois prediction leans towards Anthony Joshua. The former unified world heavyweight champion has risen from the ashes of his Usyk defeats with a series of recent wins.
Dubois, still basking in the glory of his IBF heavyweight title victory, faces a daunting task in his first title defence. Although both fighters share a similar profile, Joshua's superior experience and skillset give him a slight advantage.
Anthony Joshua: Exploit Dubois’ defensive frailties with powerful jabs
With a wealth of experience in high-stakes battles and a physical advantage, Joshua enters this fight as the clear favourite. His strategic approach is likely to revolve around controlling the distance with his reach, setting the stage for a devastating right hand with a well-placed jab.
Expect Joshua to employ his jab as a strategic tool to frustrate Dubois and create opportunities for powerful strikes. If he can gain the upper hand in the early rounds, Joshua might be able to capitalise on any defensive weaknesses in Dubois' game.
Daniel Dubois: Wait and look for openings
Dubois will hope to assert his dominance from the outset. He will likely attempt to close the gap, using his jab to target Joshua's body and set up powerful hooks and uppercuts. However, Dubois must remain vigilant against Joshua's counterpunches, as his defensive weaknesses could be exploited.
The young heavyweight will need to maintain a high-intensity approach, pressuring Joshua relentlessly and seeking opportunities for decisive strikes. If he can weather the early rounds and decipher Joshua's rhythm, Dubois may be able to impose his will on the fight and seal the bout as Joshua’s intensity fades.
See also: How we called
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
