Here for a US Open final prediction and betting tip? Then you’re in luck, because we have a Sinner vs Fritz prediction, and it’s an interesting one because the Italian is heavily favoured. Keep reading to find out if we agree with that.
The match is a final of a Grand Slam, and anything can happen in the final. Surprises are not common, but they do happen, so let’s see if the American can surprise here.
Player form: Both in smashing form
Taylor Fritz wasn’t in good form leading up to the US Open, but he found a really high level at the event. It’s remained steady since the start of it, but has never quite hit the peak of Sinner’s form.
The Italian arrived in New York after winning the Cincinnati Open trophy, so he’s on a brilliant winning streak in recent weeks. He’s never slowed down and looks as good as ever in the Big Apple.
How the bookies view it: Sinner a big favourite
As expected, the Italian is hugely favoured in this one. We could even say that Fritz has been disrespected quite a bit because Sinner is 1/4 to win the match, which is very low for a final.
Fritz to win the match is 3/1, which are very good odds in terms of value, but it’s not likely to hit, and we’re going to tell you why below.
Recent head-to-head: Tied at 1-1
Sinner and Fritz have played two matches so far, and each player has one victory. The more recent one was won by Jannik Sinner, at last year’s Indian Wells Masters.
The one before that also happened at Indian Wells, though in 2021, and Fritz won that one. It’s not a matchup we’ve seen often, but it hasn’t been that terrible for Fritz, who always found a way to win at least one set when they played.
He’ll need three to win the US Open, though, and that does seem a bit unlikely.
Anything else catch the eye?
The matchup should generally fall on Sinner’s racquet, but we’re going to demonstrate how Fritz’s level is actually what matters most.
At his best, the American can hurt Sinner because he tends to find this ‘zen-like’ mode where he hits the serve well and crushes the ball hard from the baseline.
That type of showing could give Sinner problems, but overall it’s a tricky one for Fritz. Everything that he does well in live play is done better by Sinner.
The Italian has also proved himself to be quite clutch at the US Open, winning close sets with ease. As we might see a couple more of those, it’s something to keep an eye on.
The crowd factor could prove massive, but we think Sinner will handle it well. Basically, Fritz needs to be perfect to have a chance to win.
Sinner vs Fritz betting tips & predictions
It is tricky to squeeze out any value here because the odds on Sinner are so low. We’ll go with a handicap play on the Italian so that he wins at least by two sets, meaning 3-0 or 3-1.
It’s a smart bet because it’s likely to hit, and is still decent value.
- Sinner 1.5 handicap sets @ 3/5
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
