Sunday’s Racing Tips – The lightly raced Elim still looks ahead of the handicapper

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It was a typical difficult day of racing on Saturday with some very underwhelming runs from the selections and a couple of bad rides in there as well, most noticeably on Rizzel's tip Desperate Hero who definitely committed for home far too early on testing ground. If he held onto his mount for a bit longer he would've given the horse every chance of lasting.

Cairnzy's Tips

Intrusively 15/8 – Ayr 3.00

I have this race between the top two in the market and opted to take on the short-priced favourite with Ed Bethell's Intrusively, who looks to have found a good opportunity to get off the mark in this contest.

Intrusively narrowly missed out on debut at Nottingham, finishing just half a length behind the winner. Subsequently, he was heavily backed on his second outing at Haydock in a 7f maiden. He was sent of an odds-on favourite for that race and despite finishing third, he was not far from the first and second, finishing only a length of the winner Victory Sound. The first and second have yet to run since, however, High On Hope who finished second had previously third at Leicester and only half a length behind the winner Pentle Bay who finished second behind the impressive Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot.

The favourite Stratusnine has also been knocking at the door, finishing a close second on both outings so far and with the Palmer yard in good form, he too will think he's found a good opportunity for Stratusnine to get off the mark. Of the remainder, Alice Hayne's newcomer Helaali was of interest at the prices and has to be respected from a trainer who is doing well with her youngsters this season.

Own Accord 2/1 – Ayr 4.45

This race has tended to favour three-year-olds, with three-year-olds winning the last six runnings of this contest. Surprisingly there are only two three-year-olds in this nine-runner lineup, with neither of them fancied in the market at 18s and 20s.

The one I like is the four-year-old Own Accord, who arrives here in good form and is also one of the least exposed in the field. My selection showed inexperience on her debut at Pontefract earlier this year but has shown significant improvement since then. She secured her first win at Wetherby on her second outing when winning by half a length to Extrication.

Own Accord continued her progress when winning on her handicap debut last month At Wetherby. She again only won by a small margin of three-quarters of a length, however, she seemed to enjoy the step up in distance to a mile and looked like a filly who would relish middle-distance handicaps. She's been raised 5 lb for that success but given she remains completely unexposed and open to further progress she looks the one to beat as she steps up further to a mile and a quarter.

Rizzel's Tips

Bullion Boss 9/4 – Market Rasen 2.15

For my first selection of Sunday, I've opted for Bullion Boss in the second division of the Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen. When you consider there is Group 1 action in France, this race doesn't exactly get the juices flowing, but I think Bullion Boss is definitely the one they all have to beat.

This appears to be a very weak race, and not many should be getting involved, unless the market speaks in favour of one of the out-of-form horses, then we might be in a bit of trouble. However, based on recent form, Bullion Boss seems to have the best. His recent run at Market Rasen over 2m 7f when behind Can't Beat History looks solid for the grade and this race looks an easier assignment. The winner I've just mentioned, went into the Market Rasen race in good form, with two wins from his last three efforts, so evidently was in great form. Bullion Boss managed to push the winner into a tight finish, with the winning margin ending up at 0.75L, which was 2.75L clear of the third and a further 2.75L to the fourth. The fourth-placed horse had previously won her two races prior to Market Rasen and the Skelton horse back in fifth had won on stable debut, and had gone off at 11/8F, 4/5F (was brought down in this race) and went off 5/4F for the Market Rasen race, so you'd like to think connections thought there was more to come.

Market Rasen is expecting a few showers across Saturday and early Sunday morning, so the ground might deteriorate slightly. If the ground changes, it shouldn't be a problem as Bullion Boss has won on soft ground before off a mark of 90 (7lbs higher than today) and finished as runner-up on soft ground over today's distance off a mark of 98.

Conor Rabbit is on board Bullion Boss today, and despite being the conditional stable jockey of Nicky Richards, he would have had the pick between his mount and Kopa Kilana as he had ridden the latter horse on all but one of his starts for Maurice Barnes. Conor does very well when combining with his boss Nicky Richards, as shown by his 21% SR from 63 runs, producing a profit of +20.54 to £1 level stakes.

Elim 5/2 – Ayr 4.10

If getting a clear run, I believe this looks like a nice opportunity for Elim to land a third career win. My main concern is Stall 1, as depending on how well or poorly she breaks from the stalls, it could leave her penned in on the rail which will leave her looking for racing room when making a challenge. In the past, she has been a horse who likes to be prominent, so hopefully, she breaks well and Callum Rodriguez takes the same approach which should help her avoid traffic.

On form, and running off a mark of 83 I have her as the best-handicapped horse in this race. She is a lightly raced four-year-old who has more to come from her current handicap rating. The form of her win on handicap debut last year at Musselburgh has worked out well. The third-placed horse went on to win next time out and run respectably since and the fourth-placed horse has improved from being 78 rated to now being 97 which has seen a Listed win along the way. This year, Elim's form still looks good but without getting a win. She was well-backed on seasonal reappearance at Redcar in a very good Class 4 (0-85), and she finished a respectable fourth. The winner (Ron O) has won a Class 2 on his next start, the runner-up also won on his next start. The form has produced many placed efforts since and the horse back in ninth, managed to win the time after next.

Last time out she ran in a Class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot, which saw her finish 6th/24, 6L behind the well-handicapped winner. In the grand scheme of things, she ran a belting race as she was held up, which isn't her usual running style and the horses between 3rd-6th were separated by 1.75L, with the front two miles clear as they were well ahead of the handicapper, both producing RPRs in the low 100s, which was 17 and 18lbs higher than their official ratings. Royal Ascot handicaps are always ultra-competitive, so the way she performed was a good performance and back in grade in an easier race, I think she has an outstanding chance.

The horse which is one to be wary of in this race is the Irish raider, Little Empire. This gelding has a course and distance win next to his name but in a Class 6 race. He has done well with his races in the UK, but this is a much tougher task than what he's been competing against, and off a 6lb higher mark than last time out, which is effectively 11lbs as the 5lb claimer from last time isn't on board, I think he should struggle. But, Anthony McCann has done very well when sending his horses to the UK, as his 17% SR would suggest, which is a lot better than his 5% in his native Ireland.

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