It’s quarter-final time at Queen’s, with Jack Draper taking on Tommy Paul at the cinch Championships on Friday. The Brit scored his biggest-ever win over world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz yesterday, and will be eager to live up to his new tag as the tournament favourite now.
Can he handle the pressure? Read on for our Draper vs Paul prediction and betting tips as we break down all there is to know about this match up.
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Player Form: Draper is Red-Hot
Draper comes into this clash as the new British No. 1, and riding a seven-match winning streak. The 22-year-old has looked imperious on the grass, with his serve almost untouchable, movement world-class and backhand rock solid.
Last week, Draper lifted his first trophy on the ATP Tour, winning the BOSS Open in Stuttgart. He’s well and truly backed that form up this week, defeating Mariano Navone in the first round and top seed Alcaraz in the second.
Paul wasn’t quite so successful last week. The American won his opening match against Alexei Popyrin in three sets, but then fell to compatriot Sebastian Korda in a one-sided quarter-final.
This week, he’s been metronomic. First it was Sebastian Baez that he defeated 6-4, 6-4, then Alejandro Tabilo, 6-3, 6-4. Neither player is great on grass, but Paul has been solid nonetheless in London.
How the Bookies View It: Draper Ahead, Just
Bookmaker Betfred has the match surprisingly close. Draper holds the edge at 8/13, with Paul not far off on 13/10. Set betting expects Draper to win 2-0 at 6/4, while the Brit is given a -2.5 handicap at 11/10.
Recent Head-to-Head: Domination for Draper
Draper and Paul have met four times in the past 18 months, with three of these coming already this year. Draper holds a 3-1 lead in their head-to-head, with their last result being 6-0, 6-4 in Acapulco.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Each of Draper's three wins over Paul were one-sided. They’ve all been in straight sets, with a bagel and a breadstick featuring in two of the matches.
Draper has been winning this week, without his serve being as prominent as it was in Stuttgart. Last week, the Brit was virtually untouchable on serve, in one match firing down 31 aces.
Against Alcaraz, he only served at 59%, making eight aces. Still, he faced just the one break point, thanks to a healthy 82% win rate on his first serve, and 67% win rate on his second.
Paul’s serve isn’t typically seen as a strength of the American’s, but has been very handy this week at Queen’s. He made 10 aces against Tabilo, winning 86% of first serve points and 76% of second serves.
Draper vs Paul Betting Tips & Predictions
Draper has had Paul dominated so far in their head-to-head, with the exception of the Australian Open earlier this year. On grass, in front of a home crowd, we expect this trend to continue.
- Draper to win @ 8/13
- Draper -2.5 handicap @ 11/10
There’s a chance that this isn’t as straightforward as previous matches between Draper and Paul. We’ve picked our bets to allow for a slow start or mid-match hiccup by the Brit. The pressure of being a favourite does funny things after all, and Draper is still relatively inexperienced.
But bottom line, we should be seeing Draper in the semi-finals.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
