It’s quite possibly the biggest-ever first-round match in a Grand Slam. The 14-time Roland-Garros champion Rafael Nadal takes on No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev in what could well be his final French Open on Monday.
Who prevails in this day two clash of titans? Read on for our Nadal vs Zverev prediction and betting tips.
Nadal comes to Paris proclaiming that he’s ready to leave it all on the court this French Open. The Spaniard will need to raise his level, because despite the enormous crowds he’s been generating this European clay court swing, his tennis has been underwhelming.
The 22-time Grand Slam champion is 7-4 for the year, having briefly returned in January to play three matches. A further injury saw Nadal take more time off, with his comeback beginning again in Barcelona. A run to the Round of 16 in Madrid saw a small glimmer of hope for fans, but it’s safe to say he’s far from the player he once was.
For Zverev, his form couldn’t be more different. The German nabbed the No. 4 seed at the French Open courtesy of a sixth Masters 1000 title in Rome earlier this month. After injuring himself two years ago–at Roland-Garros, against Nadal–the 27-year-old is finally back to his old peak.
Can Nadal pull off a fairytale and upset the No 4 seed in Paris, or will the inevitable happen and Zverev dispatch him with ease?
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How the Bookies View It: No Fairytale in France
Bookmaker bet365 isn’t getting swept up in the excitement of this match, and has the odds firmly in Zverev’s favour. The German pays 2/7 to win on Monday, while Nadal has long odds of 11/4. Set betting says Zverev gets this in three, with that paying 7/4.
Recent Head-to-Head: Advantage Nadal
Nadal and Zverev have played 10 times before on the ATP Tour, with Nadal leading the head-to-head 7-3. The Spaniard has won their past two encounters, breaking a three-match losing streak against Zverev between 2019-2021. On clay, the score reads 5-1 in Nadal’s favour.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Nadal has overtly said he’s willing to give it 100 percent at the French Open. This is important because until now, the veteran has had an eye towards protecting his body for a run at the Roland-Garros title.
Now, there’s nothing to save himself for: he can shoot up his dodgy joints with painkillers, and destroy himself in the name of a 15th title. Don’t put it past him either, it would be a very Nadal-like way to end his career.
There’s a huge amount of pressure against Zverev at the moment, from two fronts. Firstly, the fact that he’s playing the villain and attempting to ruin the dreams of 99 percent of tennis fans, which is that Nadal wins this match.
Secondly, he’s facing a court case later this week. This is for domestic abuse charges, and while he’s not attending the appeal, there’s still plenty of negative publicity swirling around at the moment.
Nadal vs Zverev Betting Tips & Predictions
We want to pick Nadal to win this one, we really do. It’s almost worth it just for the weight of the occasion. However, the head wins here, and we say the best bet is to wager on Nadal being competitive, but fading away.
- Total games over 37.5 @ 5/6
- Nadal to win a set @ 2/5
Nadal and Zverev play third on Court Philippe Chatrier this Monday, so get your bets in quick to make them count.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
