After 12 days, it all comes down to this. Third seed Alexander Zverev takes on world No 24 Nicolas Jarry in the final of the ATP Rome Masters 2024.
While Zverev appearing in his third Rome final is no big surprise, few saw his opponent going this deep. Can Jarry cause yet another upset on Sunday? Read on for our Zverev vs Jarry prediction and betting tips.
Zverev withstood an onslaught from the in-form Alejandro Tabilo in the semi-finals, coming back from a set down to book his spot in the final. This is not unfamiliar territory for the German, with Zverev having won the title here in 2017 and finishing runner up in 2018. If he’s going to lift another piece of Italian silverware, he’ll need to defuse the big serve of his Chilean opponent, however.
Jarry has flown under the radar here in Rome, edging his way into the final after back-to-back three set wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul. While he hasn’t exactly lit the court on fire with his tennis the past fortnight, he’s been solid when it matters and is rewarded with a maiden Masters 1000 final.
How the Bookies View It: Zverev Well Ahead
Bookmaker bet365 has Zverev a heavy favourite to take out his second title in Rome. The German is a 3/10 leader in the betting odds, with Jarry behind at 5/2 to win. Zverev gets a -3.5 game handicap for a 1/1 return, with set betting putting a straight sets win his way at 1/1 also.
Recent Head-to-Head: Advantage to Zverev
Zverev and Jarry have met six times previously on the ATP Tour, with Zverev leading the head-to-head 4-2. The pair met three times last year–Jarry won the first in Geneva, before Zverev wrapped up the last two. Of their clay meetings, they’ve split the matches 2-2.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Jarry has spent a lot more time on court than Zverev over the course of this tournament. Three out of the Chilean’s five matches have gone the distance, while his two straight sets wins still involved a tiebreak and a 7-5 set.
Zverev, on the other hand, has dropped just the one set. Even that match, against Tabilo, concluded in under two and a half hours. Will this discrepancy in court time finally catch up to Jarry?
Whether or not Jarry can leverage his net play against Zverev will be key. The world No 24 has made regular trips into the net over the course of the week, approaching 38 times in each of his last two matches. If he can successfully draw Zverev in off the baseline with this, it could disrupt the German’s natural game.
Zverev vs Jarry Betting Tips & Predictions
Jarry has had a brilliant run, but we say that Zverev will go two-from-two extinguishing underdog’s dreams in Rome. The No 3 seed has looked solid this week, and has the game to wear Jarry down–something that shouldn’t be too hard, considering his tough road to get this far.
- Zverev to win @ 3/10
- Zverev to win @ 1/1
The men’s final at the ATP Rome Masters 2024 will take place at 5pm local time at the Foro Italico, so get your bets in before then.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
