In the Notts County vs Walsall match, Notts County's solid home record contrasts with Walsall's struggles, particularly in away games. Accrington, performing well under the radar, faces a less formidable Doncaster, highlighting Accrington's potential for a home win. Blackpool, with a strong home performance record, is likely to overpower Carlisle, who face challenges adapting to League One, suggesting a probable victory for Blackpool.
Notts County vs Walsall
County sit have been a little inconsistent of late winning just two of their last five games, but their home form is impressive with W8-D0-L2 with their only home defeats coming to Wrexham and Mansfield, who are both in the top 6 and going well this season. They have now scored 26 goals at Meadow Lane, an average of 2.6 goals per fixture, finding the net in nine and scoring two or more in eight. County’s home underlying performances have been strong with a xG of 1.56, 3rd for shots on target and 4th for shots in box. Despite their defensive process improvements, they have still conceded an average of 1.7 goals at home and kept just one clean sheet with a xGA of 1.33 which puts them 22nd.
Macauley Langstaff is in excellent form with 14 goals already this season and has an excellent partnership with David McGoldrick who should be playing at a higher level.
Walsall are having a tough time and manager Mat Sadler will come under pressure should they continue to fail to pick up points. They have had a dire injury record but that has started to improve, but they have now won just once in their last nine games in all competitions which was a FA Cup tie over Sheppey Utd. They have collected away victories over Bradford and Salford, but both of these were struggling at the time and the Saddlers still lost the xG count in both games.
The Saddlers have conceded in every game on the road this term, conceding two or more in eight of their 10. I have their underlying away performances ranked as the 18th best side in the division. xG ratio sees them sit 16th and only three sides have conceded more goals on the road and five sides have conceded more shots on target.
Notts County’s form has been strong at home and against a Walsall side with no wins in six, the Magpies should be taking all three points here. The odds on a straight win are low so I am going to add in over 1.5 goals to boost the odds to 4/5 with bet365.
- Notts County win & over 1.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
Accrington vs Doncaster.
Accrington are still flying under the radar, sitting just two points outside the play offs having won nine of their 20 games this term and picked up the same number of home points as Mansfield, Swindon and Barrow and just four less than County and Stockport. At home their record is W6-D1-L4 but their defeats have come against Swindon, Mansfield and Stockport who all sit in the top 6 and a shock 1-0 defeat when they welcomed Colchester. The game against Colchester they won the xG 2.36 v 1.19, winning the shot count 31 v 7. I have them 6th on home xPTS and 3rd on shots on target ratio.
They recently beat Wrexham at home and playing Doncaster shouldn’t give them too much to be concerned about despite struggling over the last few games.
Donny have an away record of W2-D0-L7 having scored just 10 goals. Victories have come at Forest Green and Tranmere, who sits 23rd and 22nd in the table. Just three sides have a worse away record then Doncaster. 23rd for xG with just 0.73 and only four sides have conceded more goals on the road than them, so you can see where the issues lay. I have them ranked as the 20th best away side and 21st for xPTS. I cant see this being a great game of football, but the hosts should edge it given the record of the away side.
- Accrington win 11/10 with William Hill
Blackpool vs Carlisle
A home defeat for Blackpool in their last league game against Northampton shouldn’t be considered anything more than a one-off shock result. They dominated the game having 61% possession, won the shot count 18 vs 10 and the shot in the box count 12 vs 5. They should fancy their chances against a poor Carlilse team to get another three points on the board and edge closer to the play off places.
The hosts have picked up double the number of points at home than they have in their travels with a home record of W6-D2-L3, scoring 22 goals in the process. Until the Northampton match, their only defeats at home had come against Peterborough and Derby, both of whom sit in the top six. My rankings have them as the 3rd best home side. On home xPTS they sit top and 2nd for xG ratio.
Carlisle are struggling with the step up to League One with a record of W3-D6-L10 and on the road its W1-D2-L6 scoring just seven goals, three of which came in one match when they shocked the whole of League One with a 3-1 victory at Bolton. If you exclude the Bolton match, Carlisle have averaged just 0.56 xG on the road this season and conceded 1.43 xGA.
18th for both shots and shots on target conceded and 20th for shots in the box against, it is no wonder they haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road and only one all season. They got tucked up 5-1 at Reading last time out, but they haven’t been rolled over on their travels this season, losing 1-0 at Portsmouth, Oxford, Cambridge and Port Vale, so I am not expecting a high score home victory here.
Blackpool should be too strong, so combining the home win with under 4.5 match goals gives us odds of 4/5 with Bet365.
- Blackpool win & under 4.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
