EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Middlesbrough vs Reading
We were let down last weekend by Boro as they failed to get on the scoresheet, but I am happy to back them to return to winning ways at home to Reading.
Michael Carrick has turned the fortunes of the club around and they now look likely to be competing in this season play offs for the chance to return to the Premier League. Under his leadership, Boro have gone W13-D1-L4. Defeats have come to local rivals Sunderland, runway leaders Burnley, Preston in his 1st game in charge and then last week to WBA.
Boro have registered 37 goals over the 18 games whilst they have scored two or more in 12. However, despite the excellent form, Boro still need to win games to cement their playoff finish. 7th place Norwich are just five points behind them, three points against a poor Reading side is required here. Their home form under Carrick is impressive with W6-D1-L0 scoring an average of 2.29 goals and conceding just 0.57.
Reading over the last 20 games have a record of W6-D4-L10 with recent victories over strugglers Rotherham, Blackpool and Swansea. On the road this season it’s a return of W3-D2-L12. The Royals have lost their last four away games without scoring a goal and over the season have kept just three clean sheets on their travels. I have them in the bottom six for all major metrics for their away form this season. No side has conceded more goals on the road and only four sides have had fewer shots. It’s not a good mix.
With rumours of another points deduction for the Royals, there has to be a lot of uncertainty and concern at the club, and this may impact the players and with attention diverted to off-field concerns, this may be a one-sided game.
Boro at home under Carrick have scored two or more goals in five of seven games and therefore I think they will do so again. Over the last four games I have them with the highest xG in the division.
- Boro to win and over 1.5 goals can be backed at 3/4 with Bet365.
Ipswich vs Burton
Despite sitting top of the majority of the major metrics Ipswich find themselves with an uphill task to break into the top two and the automatic promotion places. However, they have given themselves a chance with their first back-to-back wins since October and Plymouth dropping points last week at Peterborough. The Tractor Boys now have back-to-back home games, and six points will really put the pressure on not only Argyle but the sides around them in the playoff hunt.
Recently the hosts have seen two impressive home wins at 4-0 over both Morecambe and Forest Green and there is a chance that they will do the same to Burton. The visitors are averaging 3.69 match goals on the road this season, conceding two or more in nine of their 16 away games, whilst Ipswich are the top scorers in the division and have real attacking quality all over the pitch.
The Brewers record against the top half on the road has been W2-D2-L6 with wins over 12th and 11th placed Exeter and Fleetwood. The top seven teams have all scored at least twice against them. The Tractor boys record against the bottom tens sides has been W6-D1-L0. They scored at least two goals in all of these games apart from the 1-1 draw with Cheltenham where they won the xG 2.83 vs 0.11.
This is a fixture that has the league’s highest scorers, the side that has the most shots, shots on target and shots in the box against a side that has conceded the most goals on the road and sits 22nd for shots and shots in the box conceded and 20th for shots on target against. Ipswich really should win this game comfortably. However, the hosts have been known to struggle to break sides down, so I don’t want to back them to score 3 or more goals, so I want to get them onside with the following, with a win, to score over 1.5 goals and win five or more corners.
The hosts have won an average of 7.75 corners this season and at home its 8.06. They have won 5 or more in 12 of 16 games with the sides stopping them win this amount being Cambridge, Barnsley, Posh and Plymouth. Burton concedes on average 5.63 corners on the road.
- Ipswich win, Ipswich over 1 goal and Ipswich over 4 corners – 5/6 with Bet365
Luton vs Swansea
I backed Luton at -0.25AH in my private telegram group earlier in the week but the odds are now long gone, so I am going to take them to beat Swansea outright here.
Swansea are really struggling for form and there is clearly an ongoing issue between Russell Martin the manager and the owners and this is causing fan unrest and results have suffered. The Swans are now on a run of just three wins from their last 18 games. However, as you look at the results in more detail you can see a pattern. They beat Blackpool 2-1, but the Tangerines were reduced to 10 men with the scores level after 57 mins, they then beat Sunderland, but again Sunderland were reduced to 10 men after 18 mins with the scores level at 0-0 and they also beat local rivals Cardiff 2-0, but City were reduced to 10 men after 7 mins with the scores level. The only game they have won over this period where they haven’t had a man advantage was an impressive home victory over Watford.
On top of this I don’t think Luton are the type of team that the Swans are going to enjoy playing. They are going to press them all over the pitch and the hosts pitch is small so there is going to be little room for them to play their passing game. The Swans have kept just two clean sheets in their last 18 games with the Hatters finding the net in all but three home games this season.
In their last 13 home games the hosts have only lost twice with Burnley and WBA the only sides to come away with three points. Luton sit 6th just in the playoff positions after a good fight back midweek to draw 2-2 with Millwall and this should give them confidence going into this game.
Luton are a very effective side in the Championship, and they like to play a certain way and I think they will be too strong and physical for a Swansea side who look to have issues on and off the pitch.
- Luton to win at evens with 888 / Betfair and William Hill
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