JAPAN defied the odds to start their FIFA World Cup with a win over Germany but it looks like they will need to shock Spain as well as to reach the knockout stages.
That thrilling comeback victory against the Germans left the Blue Samurai needing just another three points against Costa Rica to march into the last 16.
But despite having most of the pressure and possession, Japan were floored by a late sucker punch in a 1-0 defeat and that has fired the group wide open.
It would still have been looking good for the Japanese had Spain managed to defeat the Germans later on Sunday. But Niclas Fullkrug's late leveller means a Germany win by two or more goals in their final match against Costa Rica would leave Japan needing to beat Spain to progress.
Both myself and Mark thought Hansi Flick's men would just edge top spot in Group E but Spain seized control by crushing Costa Rica 7-0 in their opener and should now progress as group winners.
Luis Enrique's men have a good mix of youth and experience so they could go far at Qatar 2022 if they can see off Japan and build more momentum.
How the bookies view it
Japan have been written off for this one and are as big as 131/20 with Highbet who price Spain at just 37/100. The draw pays 73/20 with the same firm.
Head to head
These nations have faced off just once before, in a friendly 21 years ago that Spain won 1-0. It looked like that game was heading for a stalemate until midfielder Ruben Baraja netted the winner in the final minute.
Players to watch
Ferran Torres scored twice in Spain's opener, including one from the spot, and the Barcelona forward will fancy his chances against Japan. He's 137/100 at Highbet for anytime scorer while McBookie price him at 16/5 for an assist.
It's hard to predict who will start in attack for Japan as boss Hajime Moriyasu made so many changes against Costa Rica. I was surprised he left out Junya Ito after the winger looked lively against Germany so I'd expect the Reims star to return to the starting line-up here. Ito is 26/5 with Highbet for a goal but an assist is more likely at 19/4 with McBookie.
Anything else catch the eye?
A draw probably won't be enough for Japan so parking the bus isn't a credible option for Moriyasu. That means we should see goals, although over 2.5 strikes is just 67/100 with Highbet. BTTS offers better value and that's priced 47/50 with the same firm.
We saw 12 corners when Japan beat Germany so that market could be worth a look here. Over 9.5 corners is 11/10 at Bet365 while the 17/20 on offer at Highbet for over 3.5 Japan corners appeals as they have won five or more in each of their games so far.
This World Cup match between Japan and Spain will be played on Dec 1, 2022 and kick off at 19:00. Check below for our tipsters best Japan vs Spain prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
