TRIUMPH has turned into tragedy for Italy over the last year and they head into their Nations League opener against Germany desperately needing a result.
Roberto Mancini was the toast of a nation last summer when he led the Azzurri to a memorable victory at Euro 2020 playing a thrilling brand of attacking football.
But there was an almighty hangover in the World Cup qualifiers as the Italians could only finish second behind Switzerland in their group, plunging them into the play-offs.
Nobody gave North Macedonia a prayer in the Palermo semi-final but the minnows staged a smash-and-grab to claim a 1-0 win that knocked Italy out of a second successive World Cup.
More agony was to follow in midweek when Mancini's side squared up to Argentina in the Finalissima, a game that pitted the champions of Europe against the Copa America winners.
Italy were back at the scene of their Euro triumph but it was Wembley woe instead of wizardry this time as they crashed to a 3-0 loss, bringing up two bets for our man Gabriel and heaping pressure on Mancini.
The last thing they need at the moment is for a team like Germany to come calling and Hansi Flick's side are unlikely to show them any mercy.
The Germans also know how it feels to be embarrassed by North Macedonia, losing 2-1 at home in the World Cup qualifiers, but that was their only slip in the entire group.
The other nine games all ended in victories, with Flick's side smashing nine past Liechtenstein and hitting Armenia for six. That shows the kind of firepower they possess and Germany will be confident of piling more pain on a hurting Italy side.
How the bookies view it
The bookies make Germany favourites but the price is still decent at a best 13/9 with SBK. Italy's woeful form makes them 43/20 at Unibet but don't rule out the draw at 38/15 with VBet.
Recent head to head
This is the 11th meeting of these giants since German reunification and it's Italy who have bossed the fixture, suffering just one defeat inside 90 minutes. But five of those matches have ended level, including the last two meetings. It was a 0-0 friendly snorefest when they last faced off on Italian soil while Germany triumphed on penalties (below) after a 1-1 draw in the Euro 2016 quarter-final.
Players to watch
Ciro Immobile is a big miss for Italy as he's a great focal point for his side. None of Mancini's forwards impressed at Wembley so I'm backing midfielder Nicolo Barella to inspire them. The Inter Milan star is 21/4 at Unibet for anytime scorer but it might be better backing him for an assist at 7/1 with the same firm.
Timo Werner was in decent form for Chelsea in the second half of the season and usually plays well for the Germans. He's 2/1 at Unibet for a goal and 6/1 for an assist.
Anything else catch the eye?
This is a game that promises a few thrills with both managers known for being adventurous. That's why both teams to score is just 8/11 with Bet365 while over 2.5 goals is also odd-on at a best 13/14 with SBK.
Ilkay Gundogan should start in midfield for the Germans and I like the evens on offer at Bet365 for him to have over 0.5 shots on target, given he scored twice to secure the title for Manchester City in his last game.
Antonio Rudiger has picked up 14 yellows this season so I like the 7/2 on offer at Unibet for the Real Madrid new boy to pick up a card here.
This UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Germany will be played on Jun 4, 2022 and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Italy vs Germany prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
