THE promotion and relegation play-offs have started in Holland and we could be in for a low-scoring affair between Go Ahead Eagles and VVV this evening.
Go Ahead Eagles finished sixth in the Jupiler League and after negotiating their way past Dordrecht in the first round of the play-offs now come up against VVV-Venlo of the Eredevisie.
They have had some quality players over the years, including Marc Overmars, but things have been a bit tougher of late as they've been plying their trade in the second tier of Dutch football.
Erik ten Hag's side still have a long way to go if they want to seal promotion and earning an advantage at home is key. They are unbeaten in 13 at Adelaarshorst and one of the most pleasing aspects is they've kept three clean sheets in three of their last four.
They do quite often bang in a number of goals themselves, however, fired blanks against MVV and Eindhoven recently and tonight's opponents will be much tougher.
VVV-Venlo finished 17th during the regular season in the Eredivisie and looking at the table it's easy to see why. They netted just 33 goals – the lowest in the entire division – and completed their campaign with just five in their last 10.
Venlo's form away from De Koel won't fill manager Ton Lokhoff with much confidence as they've lost four of their last six, although their two most recent results were a 1-1 draw with ADO Den Haag and 1-0 win at Vitesse.
The Go Ahead Eagles are used to high-scoring matches in their league but they're playing a much more professional outfit now. VVV will be looking to keep it tight and as it's the first leg, I can see a bit of a cautious approach from both teams. That's why, with over 2.5 goals trading around the 1.77 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay over 2.5 goals in Go Ahead Eagles v VVV @ 1.77
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
RESULT
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NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie – Promotion
G.A. Eagles 1-0 Venlo
Milesey
Milesey, two good ones there. I hope folk took my advice and replaced Bryne with Twent.
The final weekend of the 2012/13 Premier League season
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Chelsea 1.73 v Everton 5.5; The Draw 4.1
Everton have only won one of their last 20 games at Stamford Bridge, so we can immediately disregard an away win from a statistical analysis point of view. However, six of the last 12 Premier League meetings between the two teams have ended in a draw, so the home win isn’t an obvious conclusion to draw.
Everton have won their last five Premier League games played on the final day of the season, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea in 2010-11, while Chelsea are unbeaten in seven Premier League matches (W5 D2); their longest such run under Rafael Benitez.
With both sides having positives in the statistics, and the draw a popular result in this fixture, it makes sense to take the 4.1 on offer.
Best Bet: Back The Draw @ 4.1
Liverpool 1.26 v QPR 14.5; The Draw 7.0
QPR have taken just one point from their previous five Premier League visits to Anfield and have collected just two points from their last eight games this season. So the home win, although short at 1.26, looks a shoo-in.
For a greater return, however, we can look to the goals markets. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 15 home league games, while Rangers have not scored from open play in their last 455 minutes of Premier League football.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.82
Man City 1.36 v Norwich 11.0; The Draw 5.4
Norwich have won only one of their previous 11 Premier League games against Manchester City, and have been on the receiving end of some one-sided batterings in recent meetings.
City have scored 18 goals in their last four league games against the Canaries, with Sergio Aguero scoring four of those. More than the Argentine has scored against any other Premier League side.
Best Bet: Back Any Unquoted @ 4.4
Southampton 1.82 v Stoke 5.2; The Draw 3.8
Southampton have won six and drawn one of their last seven home games against Stoke City in all competitions, but are without a win in five successive Premier League matches (D3 L2) against all opposition; netting just two goals during this run.
With the Potters having scored only five goals in their last 10 Premier League away matches, the obvious conclusion is to go low on the number of goals scored this weekend.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
Swansea 1.91 v Fulham 4.4; The Draw 3.8
Swansea have a 100% Premier League record against Fulham having won each of their previous three meetings, and after losing just one of their last nine Premier League games its easy to conclude that a home win represents value at odds of 1.91.
If you’re looking for a bet at bigger odds then it may be worth looking at the HT/FT market. 11 of Dimitar Berbatov’s 14 Premier League goals for Fulham have come before half-time, while Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals in the second half of matches in the Premier League this season (70%).
Best Bet: Back Fulham/Swansea @ 30.0 in HT/FT
West Brom 4.9 v Man Utd 1.82; The Draw 4.1
Only Chelsea (33) have scored more Premier League goals against West Brom than Manchester United (32), suggesting that Sir Alex Ferguson could sing off in style from his Manchester United tenure in his 1500th game.
Man Utd also have the best points per game ratio in the month of May in the history of the competition (2.07), while West Brom have the worst (0.84), of current top flight teams.
Best Bet: Back Man Utd to win @ 1.82
West Ham 1.7 v Reading 5.8; The Draw 4.0
The Hammers have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D3 L1), but have won only one of their previous five Premier League meetings with Reading (D1 L3).
Reading’s record of having won fewer points away from home than any other side in the Premier League season means that we cannot back the visitors, but there is room to take on the hosts at odds-on prices.
Best Bet: Lay West Ham to win @ 1.7
Wigan 2.24 v Aston Villa 3.55; The Draw 3.55
Wigan have failed to win any of their last six home games in the Premier League against Aston Villa (D2 L4), and with the wind being battered out of them by Arsenal in midweek I can’t be having them as favourites here.
However, Christian Benteke’s suspension will leave Villa short of impetus in front of goal – he has contributed to half of Villa’s 30 Premier League goals this year (14 goals, 1 assist) – and so we should expect a low-scoring end-of-season stalemate.
Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 15.0
Newcastle v Arsenal
Back the draw @ 4.2 (16/5)
Back a 2-2 correct score @ 12.0 (11/1)
Newcastle take on Arsenal in one of only two really meaningful games and while The Gunners know that a win will secure Champions League football, I think that the draw is a huge runner at odds of 4.2 (16/5)
The Magpies have endured a difficult campaign that has been blighted by injuries and fixture congestion. Those excuses withstanding, Alan Pardew’s men have performed well below par and they are very lucky to not need a result going into this game.
The pressure will be off for a change though and I’m sure everyone involved with the club will want to finish the season on a high. Hatem Ben Arfa is back from injury and he netted from the spot at QPR last weekend. The defence aren’t up to much but they do at least have some quality players in the forward areas.
Arsenal are on a magnificent run of nine unbeaten since the defeat at White Hart Lane that many thought had ended their top four aspirations. Seven wins and two draws have lifted them about Spurs and they only have to match their rivals’ result on the final day.
Arsene Wenger’s side have looked a bit flaky at times though and they don’t have a leader on the field to rally the troops when the chips are down. I just have a sneaky suspicion that an away win isn’t the formality that the odds suggest and there could be one last twist to come.
The draw is just too big at 4.2 (16/5) and I also quite fancy a 2-2 scoreline at 12.0 (11/1) as we’ve had some high scoring results between these two in recent seasons.
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*********** MILESEY’S BEST BET ************
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Liverpool v QPR
Back Liverpool to win both halves @ 2.4 (7/5)
QPR complete their miserable campaign at Anfield but I can’t see them getting any respite from a rampant Liverpool.
The Reds are unbeaten in seven since their abysmal performance at St Mary’s back in March. They put three past Fulham last time out and hit Newcastle for six a fortnight ago. Luis Suarez hasn’t been missed at all as the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have really stepped up to the plate.
Sturridge banged in a hat trick at Craven Cottage but it’s the performances of the Brazilian that have perhaps been the most impressive. He is looking like quite a find by Brendan Rodgers as not only does he score goals, he creates plenty as well.
Harry Redknapp’s appointment at Loftus Road was supposed to kick-start their survival bid. It never really worked out though and Rangers are set to finish bottom of the pile – further adrift than when the former Spurs boss took over.
They’ve picked up just two points from a possible 24 and scored only two goals in their last half dozen. Both those goals were scored by Loic Remy but given the recent stories about him in the media, it’s not a certainty that he will even travel to Anfield.
Liverpool to win both halves at 2.4 (7/5) is probably my strongest fancy of the entire weekend.
Milesey
GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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Liverpool v QPR (Sunday, 16:00)
Daniel Sturridge has scored more goals (10) in his first 13 Premier League appearances for the club than any other Liverpool player
After wrapping up a first Premier League hat-trick at Craven Cottage, the sky is the limit for Liverpool’s £12 million January signing. Sturridge has always shown potential for great things, though only now in a red shirt is he starting to realise his potential on the big stage. Making the most of the absence of Luis Suarez, the striker is gratefully gobbling up Philippe Coutinho’s exquisite through balls and he should fill his boots once more against hapless QPR.
Best Bet: Back Daniel Sturridge to score @ 1.75
Manchester City v Norwich (Sunday, 16:00)
Sergio Aguero has scored four goals in the Premier League against Norwich; against no side has he scored more often
Despite a turbulent week following FA Cup failure in which Roberto Mancini was given the boot, Man City got the job done against Reading with efficiency. One of the scorers was Aguero who, by last season’s illustrious standards, has endured a mixed bag of a campaign. However, while this fixture promises no repeat of those fabled last-day heroics against QPR, the Canaries are more reminiscent of sitting ducks where the Argentine is concerned.
Recommended Bet: Back Sergio Aguero to score @ 2.1
Tottenham v Sunderland (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 2)
Emmanuel Adebayor has scored five goals in his last six Premier League appearances in the month of May, including two in his last two matches for Spurs
Tottenham fans have been left wondering where the real Adebayor has been hiding all season, after the mercurial striker’s recent spate of goals. Still, those of a Lilywhite persuasion will have no qualms if the former Gooner scores against Sunderland and helps force his previous employers to start a season in the Europa League for the first time since 1997/98. He looks unplayable at present.
Recommended Bet:Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ 2.2
Wigan v Aston Villa (Sunday, 16:00)
Shaun Maloney has scored three and assisted four goals in his last nine appearances for Wigan in all competitions
Wigan’s Scotland international is one of a crop of players who is sure to attract offers from other top-flight clubs in the wake of the Latics’ Premier League elimination. Maloney’s recent performances and goals in a Wigan shirt have certainly caught the eye, especially his ability to notch a free-kick using that Gareth Bale-esque dipping technique. Being his last game in the shop window, he’ll be out to impress once more.
Recommended Bet: Back Shaun Maloney to score @ 3.75
Milesey
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunday, KO 16:00, Live on Sky Sports 2
We end the season with a battle for fourth place between two North London rivals. In the red corner is Arsenal, who take their point advantage on the road with them to Newcastle and in the white corner are Spurs, who host Sunderland at White Hart Lane.
It promises for a nervous atmosphere, with the crowds at the respective matches being just as interested in the news from elsewhere as they are in the action on the pitch in front of them.
Tottenham have endured a long season due to their European exploits but they go into this game missing only their long term absentees Younes Kaboul and Sandro. Moussa Dembele should be fit to play having failed to start the last two games and could replace Scott Parker.
Sunderland have far more problems. The on-loan Danny Rose has returned to Spurs with injury and would have been ineligible anyway. Stephane Sessegnon and Craig Gardner are suspended, while Lee Cattermole and Steven Fletcher are both injured.
This could have been a potentially tricky game for Tottenham if Sunderland were in need of a result, but the midweek relegation of Wigan has left the Black Cats with nothing much to play for.
Yet it’s still hard to recommend odds of 1.31 on a Spurs win. Andre Villas-Boas’ side have often struggled to break down teams that they should beat at home, even when (like Sunderland) they have nothing much to play for. The recent 1-0 home loss to Fulham can count as painful evidence of that.
Under such circumstances the logic is to look for more value in other win markets. The Tottenham half-time/full-time result at 1.9 doesn’t provide it. If you look back at Spurs’ last 12 Premier League wins, they have only lead at half-time in two of them. The draw/Tottenham at 4.7 is a better bet.
Another market that you’d perhaps go for when the home side is a very short price, is for them to win to nil. Spurs can be backed at 3.05 to win without conceding, but statistically it looks unlikely.
On paper Sunderland’s attack might seem more toothless than a bald man’s comb, but they have managed to score at least one goal in their last six outings. Tottenham meanwhile, have only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 Premier League games.
Spurs are defending terribly from set pieces at the moment and the 1.98 for both teams to score appeals, while the 8.2 for AVB’s team to win from behind looks over generous. Tottenham have conceded the first goal in six of their last nine games.
Ultimately I expect Tottenham to prevail but as is often the case with the club, there are bound to be nervous times ahead and they are likely to make things difficult for themselves. 2-1 to Spurs at 10.0 is my correct score pick.
Spurs are now out at 3.2 to finish in the top four, with Arsenal at 1.42. I think Arsenal will also win, but there could be some trading opportunities in-play, with the market overreacting as the goals fly in.
Recommended Bets
Back both teams to score at 1.98
Back the draw half-time/Spurs full-time at 4.7
Back Tottenham to win from behind at 8.2
Milesey
EUROVISION
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The Eurovision Song Contest remains the original talent show, long before franchises like Pop Idol, The Voice and The X-Factor took over our television screens. This year’s edition will take place in Sweden (Malmo) but the bookie favourite is Denmark, best priced at 1.83 with Betfred.
The national selection of songs entered in the contest, are made without EBU involvement. Those songs must be chosen fairly and through a transparent process. There are no other requirements. The voting is a combination of the votes of television viewers and those of a selected jury. The results will determine specific rankings for each of the top ten countries. In terms of points, the number 1 song receives 12 points, down to one point for the tenth highest.
Last year’s winning song was the legitimately excellent “Euphoria,” performed by Sweden’s Loreen. In fact, Scandinavians have decided to fight back on their own in the last few years. All of them voted for Sweden in 2012, who got enough votes to edge home in front. Norway and Finland have also profited from this ploy recently so, by default, it must be Denmark‘s turn this year.
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2013: Top Contenders
DENMARK – Song: Only Teardrops – Artist: Emmelie de Forest
This song has been singled out early as the favourite, and with good reason. It seems to be a recipe for success. Twenty year old Emmelie de Forest is attractive with a rather endearing smile that screams confidence and vulnerability all in one.
Place a £20 bet on the Eurovision and if Denmark win, Unibet will refund your losing bet.
UKRAINE – Song: Gravity – Artist: Zlata Ognevich
This has been the real firmer in markets in recent days, overtaking Norway to cement second favouritism behind Denmark. However, the last 24 hours, it has been on the drift again after a number of problems during rehearsals.
NORWAY – Song: I Feed You My Love – Artist: Margaret Berger
If there’s a challenger to Zlata Ognevich for the sexiest contestant, it is definitely Margaret Berger. This blonde bombshell has been labelled “the ice queen” by many in her home country, which you will understand as soon as you see the clip for the song.
RUSSIA – Song: What if – Artist: Dina Garipova
Dina’s a dead-ringer for terrifying arch-capitalist Ruth Badger from the second series of The Apprentice, so it’s a surprise to see her knocking out the kind of sub-’Imagine’ peace and love clap trap that went out of fashion three days into the first summer of love.
GERMANY – Song: Glorious – Artist: Cascada
Remember Everytime We Touch, a Eurodance hit from 2005? If you can’t remember it off the top of your head, check it out on Youtube. You will recognise it. That song was performed by dance trio Cascada, headed by Natalie Horner, who are back in the spotlight as this year’s representative from Germany.
ITALY – Song: L’essenziale – Artist: Marco Mengoni
The language is a bad start with 38 of the 58 previous winners crooned in English or French, but Marco Menogni is in a weedy George Clooney kind of fashion. The vehicle for his charms is a stripped back acoustic cut devoid of any real hooks, but enjoyable for Senor Mengoni’s kooky facial gymnastics
SAN MARINO – Song: Crisalide (vola) – Artist: Valentina Monetta
An offensively average song from the self-styled “oldest sovereign state in the world” included in our list because, despite coming second to Denmark’s offering in the Organisation Générale des Amateurs de l’Eurovision pole.
SWEDEN – Song: You – Artist: Robin Stjernberg
No country has won back to back Eurovisions since Ireland won four in five years in the mid-1990s. It’s unlikely to happen again this year, although Sweden’s produced quite a good song. Robin Stjernberg was an upset winner at Sweden’s national contest Melodifestivalen. But You is a good song, similar to a lot of songs that have taken Europe by storm recently.
NETHERLANDS – Song: Birds – Artist: Anouk
This is probably the best song of this year’s competition. This song wasn’t written specifically for Eurovision, which is a positive (better than many of the songs which seem written with Eurovision in mind). And Anouk is a brilliant story teller, her voice is superb.
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2013: BEST odds
Denmark @ 1.83
Norway @ 8.00
Ukraine @ 13.00
Russia @ 15.00
Azerbaijan @ 17.50
Netherlands @ 30.00
Italy @ 30.00
Germany @ 31.00
Georgia @ 34.00
Finland @ 55.00
Ireland @ 67.00
Sweden @ 67.00
San Marino @ 71.00
Greece @ 71.00
UK @ 71.00
Malta @ 150.00
Milesey
With the second semi-final in the bag, we now know which nations will contest Saturday’s Eurovision Song Contest final.
The votes have been cast, the second semi-final is over and we now know the identities of the 26 nations who will compete in the final of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest. Come Saturday evening one of these countries will have the unenviable task of following Malmo and hosting the 2014 competition. The big question now is which nation it will be?
Denmark remain the hot favourites, which is unsurprising given the pains that have been taken to produce a winning entry. Songwriter Lise Cabble has already written two songs which finished in the top 5 of a Eurovision contest and that knowledge shines through ‘Only Teardrops’, especially in the big, Eurovision-friendly, finish. For the British audience, singer Emmelie de Forest will evoke memories of Florence Welch, Kate Bush and, with her bare feet, none other than former winner Sandie Shaw. They are going to face some stiff competition, though, and that alone suggests that at 1.82 they are far too short a price to be attractive.
Norway came through the second semi-final and are second favourites at 10.5. An interesting pointer, though, is that although the votes of the jury deciding the semi-finals are supposed to be something of a secret, the order in which the winners were announced suggests that Margaret Berger’s ‘I Feed You My Love’ is a strong contender.
If you take the jury decision as an indicator of the way that they will vote in the Final – and votes from the jurists for the Final make up 50% of this mark – then the fact that the Norwegians were announced in a similar position in the order as the Danes two nights before suggests that they might be in a tighter race with their Scandinavian counterparts than the market might indicate.
The second semi-final also produced a number of interesting outside challengers. Iceland’s Eythor Ingi is a noted performer in stage musicals, having played roles as diverse as Riff Raff in The Rocky Horror Picture Show and Marius in Les Miserables. He appeared inspired by the semi-final and although his song ‘I Am Alive’ is possibly a little too downbeat for a Eurovision winner, it is bound to find favour with some juries and at 5.6 he represents a good bet for a top 10 finish.
Georgia’s entry, ‘Waterfall’, seemed to go down particularly well with the live audience. It is a more old fashioned type of song, of the sort which used to do well in the early years of the contest. There are elements of classical music, pop music and the theatrical in there, a mix reflected by the background of performers Nodi Tatishvili and Sophie Gelovani. Back them at 2.5 to finish in the top five.
None of which bodes well for Britain’s entry. Bonnie Tyler has been steadily drifting in the market and not only is now a 110.0 shot to win the competition (and a possibly generous 4.7 to even make the top 10), she is 8.2 to even finish top of the so-called Big Five nations, the group comprising Britain, France, Spain, Germany and Italy who don’t have to take part in the semi-finals. Admittedly, that’s better than the Spanish entry, ‘With You Until The End’ by ESDM, is doing – but that is because it is a truly horrible song and at 580.0 justifiably the rank outsider in the win market.
Recommended Bet:
Back Norway at 10.5 to win the Eurovision Song Contest
Milesey
WEEKEND LAYing
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Lay Sevilla to beat Real Sociedad @ 2.16
Real Sociedad are the surprise package in the race for Champions League football in La Liga. As they travel to Sevilla, it looks to be a straight fight between them and regular European heavyweights Valencia to see who can finish in that coveted fourth spot, currently occupied by Sociedad courtesy of their head-to-head supremacy. A shock loss to Getafe two matches back ended a remarkable run of 15 games without losing, though this is a hard team to beat. With a fixture against Real Madrid to come next, they’ll be targeting three points here against mid-table Sevilla, whom they defeated 2-1 earlier in the season. After a topsy-turvy campaign, the home team’s quest to secure European football themselves may be determined by whether Malaga’s European ban is maintained.
Lay Zaragoza to beat Athletic Bilbao 1.93
Seven points separate Zaragoza, hovering precariously above the drop zone, from their visitors Athletic Bilbao in 14th with three games left in the La Liga season. After going on a tormenting run of 15 games without winning, the hosts understandably dropped right to the foot of the Spanish top flight. However, since that low ebb, three subsequent games, in which they have collected seven points, have lifted them out of the relegation spots. Despite turning that corner, they will come up against stiff opposition in Athletic, themselves currently on a four-match unbeaten run that they’ll be in no hurry to surrender. One of those results was a draw against champions Barcelona and the Bilbao outfit haven’t lost to any other current bottom-half sides since the beginning of February.
Lay Nacional to beat Academica @ 2.04
Neither of these sides can claim to have had particularly memorable campaigns in the Portuguese top flight. For hosts Nacional, the only carrot dangling in this last league game of the season is the remote possibility of finishing in the top half though, given the other final fixtures, that’s highly unlikely to materialise. Nacional have lost three of their last five games as they entertain an Academica side which defeated them 2-1 earlier in the season. Their visitors arrive in great form too, having peeled away from danger by taking seven points from the last nine available, and will be aiming to maintain their recent unbeaten run until the curtain close.
Milesey
Airtricity Premier Division Betting
This week, our featured bet revolves around the losing side on that occasion who showed incredible character to go and win in dreadful conditions in Limerick on Tuesday.
Mick Cooke rung the changes for that game, and his team responded and they will be keen to put on a show in front of their home fans considering the misery they suffered in Tallaght.
However, they are vulnerable against a Derry side who come here with the benefit of a week’s rest but also have a point to prove after a dismal 4-2 reverse to UCD last Friday. They will also be looking to avenge their Setanta Cup semi final defeat to the Louthmen.
The narrow pitch in Drogheda should actually suit the Candystripes. Star man Barry McNamee, who has been deployed wide on the left, is more comfortable centrally with a lack of width one of their potential problems. They have the striking options to come away with points, with the trading odds of 2.34 representing value.
After hammering the Drogs, Shamrock Rovers fired a blank in a scoreless draw with a St Patrick’s Athletic although they barely created any chances with their opponents the better side. The live TV meeting with Bohemians at Tallaght presents an opportunity to pick up three points which they should take. However, they offer no value. Instead, we look to the Goals department for some value.
When Trevor Croly’s side hit their stride, they can be prolific as their performance last Saturday demonstrated. Bohs are a capable but have been weakened by suspension. It’s 3.85 about Over 3.5 Goals and expect Rovers to make a bigger contribution towards hitting that target.
Goals are never far away when Limerick go on their travels. They produced a lethargic display against Drogheda but are set up quite well to perform on the road. Nevertheless, UCD were excellent in Derry, and if they reproduce that display they are capable of hurting the Shannonsiders. Certainly, Stuart Taylor’s men are trading too short at 2.04. They are lay material.
Finally, the resignation of Shelbourne manager Alan Mathews adds spice to their Dublin derby with St Patrick’s Athletic. One of the oddities of football is the frequency that a team with a caretaker boss immediately plays about themselves to register a shock win. The 8.0 about a Shels victory might attract some support on that basis. However, Mathews’ left a team that is bottom of the table because he recruited poorly over the winter.
The Saints, on the other hand, showed their quality by dominating the draw with Shamrock Rovers on Tuesday. Perhaps they can find their shooting boots here. They knocked four past Shels earlier in the season. Speculatively, have a few quid on them to hit one less, with a response from the hosts; a 3-1 away win is 15.0 in the Correct Score market.
Recommended Bets
Back Derry City to beat Drogheda United @ 2.34
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians @ 3.85
Lay Limerick to beat UCD @ 2.04
Back 1-3 Correct Score in Shelbourne v St Patrick’s Athletic @ 15.0
Milesey
Bundesliga Betting
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Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim, Sat 14:30 BST
Match Odds: Dortmund 1.48, Hoffe 6.8, the draw 5.4
At the halfway stage of the 2008-2009 Bundesliga season, Hoffenheim were top of the table after a stunning start to their first ever top-flight campaign. A huge cash injection from software tycoon Dietmar Hopp had elevated the club from the fifth tier of German football to the pinnacle of the domestic game. Those days now seem a long way away, with the Sinsheim-based club now looking set to drop out of the Bundesliga. Hopp had predicted a Champions League qualification push at the start of the current campaign – how painfully wide of the mark he was.
So where did it all go wrong? My suspicion is that Hoffenheim never recovered from the acrimonious departure of inspirational coach Ralf Rangnick, who had steered the club from the third tier to the first. Rangnick quit in January 2011 after midfield lynchpin Luis Gustavo was sold to Bayern Munich against his express wishes. Since his departure, Hoffe have had six different coaches (four permanent bosses and two caretakers) and none of them have lived up to Hopp’s expectations.
Hopes were high at the start of this campaign, with Markus Babbel in charge of a seemingly strong squad that had been boosted by the arrival of German international keeper Tim Wiese, Bayer Leverkusen striker Eren Derdiyok, promising Real Madrid forward Joselu and Stuttgart defender Mathieu Delpierre. The campaign got off to a disastrous start, as Hoffe were battered 4-0 by Regionalliga Nord outfit Berliner AK 07 in the German Cup. Things got worse in the league, as TSG lost their first three league games. Babbel was sacked in December, but his replacement Marco Kurz also failed to make a suitable impact.
Hoffenheim’s biggest problem has been their chaotic defending. I have never seen a Bundesliga team that defends set-pieces so badly, and Wiese’s confidence was soon shot to pieces. Opta tell us Hoffe have conceded a league-high 66 goals, an average of two per game. No-one in the division has a worse away record (two wins, three draws, 11 defeats), and Hoffe must win at Borussia Dortmund to have any chance of avoiding the drop.
Anyone who thinks BVB will ease up ahead of the Champions League final has another thing coming. Coach Jurgen Klopp has indicated he will play his strongest side to keep them sharp ahead of the Wembley showdown with Bayern, and there is a desire within the squad to help Robert Lewandowski finish top of the goalscoring charts. The Pole has 23 Bundesliga goals, one fewer than current leader Stefan Kiessling of Bayer Leverkusen.
BVB have won eight of their last nine home games in all competitions, and seven of those wins were by two goals or more. It’s hard to see them showing Hoffe any mercy, so backing Dortmund -1.5 on the Asian Handicap looks sensible at 2.0.
Recommended Bets
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0
Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf, Sat 14:30 BST
Match Odds: Hannover 2.74, Fortuna 2.62, the draw 3.8
Regular readers will know I have been opposing Fortuna for weeks now, as Norbert Meier’s men desperately struggle to escape the relegation dogfight. Fortuna are two points above the automatic dropzone, and only out of the relegation playoff spot on goal difference. They have lost eight of their last 11 matches, conceding 25 goals in that period, and their confidence is at rock-bottom.
Hannover have slipped into mid-table obscurity with a run of one win six matches, and a mixture of injuries and Europa League fatigue has seen Mirko Slomka’s men run out of steam. That said, there is absolutely no way they should be a bigger price than Fortuna to win this match, as they have won eight home games and lost just three.
Recommended Bet
Back Hannover to win at 2.74
Freiburg vs Schalke, Sat 14:30 BST
Match Odds: Freiburg 2.94, Schalke 2.5, the draw 3.75
Barring a miraculously big win for Eintracht Frankfurt against Wolfsburg, the final Champions League qualification slot will be filled by either Freiburg or Schalke, who are set for a nailbiting end to the campaign. Freiburg must win to leapfrog the visitors and claim a place in the top four. Schalke fluffed their lines last week as they suffered a shock 2-1 home defeat to Stuttgart, while Christian Streich’s Black Forest battlers won 2-1 at Greuther Furth.
The market expects goals, with Under 2.5 Goals trading at a startling 2.58, and No in the Both Teams to Score market available at 2.92. I suspect this could be a much more tense and tight affair than people think. Streich likes to keep things tight, and his side have conceded just 16 goals at home all season – only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have conceded fewer goals on their own patch. Freiburg have also kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 home games. It’s also worth considering that backing No in the BTTS market has paid out in each of Schalke’s last four away games.
Recommended Bet
Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.92
Milesey
Atletico Rafaela v Estudiantes de La Plate – Saturday 20:10
Only leaders Newell’s have a better run of form at the moment than La Crema and Rafaela are getting a bit of a nosebleed up in fourth place in the table.
In fact, tenth in the top flight is their best ever season, and with just six games remaining, Jorge Luis Burruchaga’s side look set to better it with their current sequence of eight games undefeated.
Their mystery – or perhaps their strength – is that they are achieving without having one notable star in their team, much like the Belgrano outfit that finished third last season.
Federico Gonzalez may have scored four of the club’s last six goals but until recently the forward had scored just four goals in his last thirty-five games.
By having no stars, they focus on the collective and rather than revolving around one key player, the workload is spread among experience, hard-working campaigners like Juan Eluchans and Sebastian Grazzini.
The model of basing your team around one star is very prevalent in Argentina with the enganche model and although Juan Sebastian Verón was not a classic Argentine ’10’ in the mould of Juan Román Riquelme, he was a phenomenally influential figure who was still one of the best players in the country when he retired.
Estudiantes have been unable to fill the gap he left, even with the signing of the brilliant Román Martínez and it’s compounded the freefall that was sparked by Alejandro Sabella’s departure in 2011.
New manager Mauricio Pellegrino looks to be turning things around in La Plata, but up against such a form side at a tough ground to visit, it’s hard to look beyond the cream that keeps rising to the top.
Recommended bet: Back Atletico Rafaela at 2.4
Quilmes v Newell’s Old Boys – Saturday 22:30
Quilmes host the leaders in (notionally) good form and a healthy fifth position.
However, on a closer look it is difficult to see what the Brewers have really achieved this season, with all five wins in the league this season coming against bottom-half sides.
They’re not a bad side by any means, they boast the essentials of any team in this league by having a good playmaker, Miguel Caneo, and a goalscorer, Martin Cauteruccion, but they’re yet to beat anyone of note and seem to be in a slightly false position at current.
Newell’s aren’t, they’ve been the best footballing side in the country for a year and as well as topping the league by a point, they’re now in the quarter-finals of the Copa Libertadores.
There will undoubtedly be some tiredness from Wednesday’s game but the visitors should be too strong.
Recommended bet: Back Newell’s at 2.7
Independiente v San Martín de San Juan – Sunday 17:10
It’s important to be careful how one says this but imagine a hypothetical situation.
A club, let’s call them Inpedendiente, is one of Argentina’s five grandes but – sadly, perhaps – chronic mismanagement at all levels has left them fighting relegation.
This club has extremely strong links with the Argentine FA’s president, in fact, he used to be president of Inpedendiente and ever since the club’s current chief has started getting along with the AFA head honcho, results have started going their way.
As an unrelated aside, some baffling refereeing decisions have favoured them as their form has turned around miraculously and with such momentum you’d be mad to oppose them this weekend.
San Martín are pretty rubbish too, which helps.
Recommended bet: Back Independiente at 2.2
Unión de Santa Fe v River Plate – Sunday 19:15
River are in great form at the moment, they have probably the strongest, deepest squad in the league and they’re up against a weak Unión side (two wins in their last 37 games).
That’s pretty much all you need to know as the Millionarios continue their chase of the leaders.
Recommended bet: Back River at 2.18
Tigre v Lanús – Tuesday 01:30
Tigre’s up and down form is easily explained by their over-stretched squad, and a squad that only narrowly avoided relegation while reaching the Copa Sudamericana final in December.
It was a ludicrous season of paradox as they toiled at the bottom of the table while somehow romping on in continental competition and Nestor Gorosito seems to have continued that trend with Tigre advancing to the knockout stages of the Copa Libertadores (the next step up) despite extremely indifferent form at domestic level.
After a difficult trip to Paraguay on Thursday night, a Monday night fixture against one of Argentina’s leading sides is hardly the ideal follow-up and despite the visitors’ irritating penchant for draws at the moment, they should come good with a win in Victoria.
Recommended bet: Back Lanús at 2.05
Milesey
Bradford 2.46 Northampton 3.2; The draw 3.35
Wembley, Saturday, 13:30 BST
Bradford and Northampton seem to be generating similar storylines: both have hungry young managers in demand; both clubs were looking over their shoulders at the wrong end of League Two last season; both clubs are clearly better than that.
They have regrouped and restructured, thrusting their managers into the spotlight with signs they could be of interest to clubs higher up the pyramid.
Bradford’s Phil Parkinson, the former Charlton manager, has found fame from the club’s run to the Capital One Cup Final, against the odds as a fourth-tier team. Co-chairman Julian Rhodes hopes to tie him to a two-year deal after their 64-game season finally ends.
Meanwhile, Northampton chairman David Cordoza says he is expecting interest in Aidy Boothroyd, who led Watford to the Premiership in the past – via the playoffs and against the odds.
Arguably, Bradford are the bigger club of the two in this fixture. Home gates average 10,000 and they were a top flight club as recently as 1999-2001. They have been ripe for a turnaround and Parkinson has been the catalyst.
Were it not for that cup run, Bradford might have won automatic promotion, but that run gives them two edges: they have recent Wembley experience and an English record nine straight penalty shoot-out victories to fall back on.
Forget the 5-0 reverse in the cup final, it simply gives them unfinished business. Defeat was also against a team, Swansea, from three levels higher who brought their A game, which clearly Wigan, Arsenal and Aston Villa did not in previous rounds.
Anyone who took previous advice to back Bradford for promotion at 6.0, after Burton beat them in the semi-final first leg, can cashout at 1.8. Latecomers should try the win at 2.46 (90 minutes) or to win on penalties if the eventually starts to look likely.
Recommended Bet:
Back Bradford to win (90 minutes) @ 2.46
Correct score market:
It might seem like there were contrasting styles in the semi-finals, with Northampton taking two 1-0 wins over Cheltenham and Bradford’s games being high scorers (2-3 and 3-1). But the Bantams had only themselves to blame, as a lax first half in the first leg meant they had to chase goals.
They are quite capable of keeping things tight. Indeed Parkinson is pleased that talismatic defender Andrew Davies, who missed a large chunk of the season, helped thwart the big physical forward line of the Cobblers, especially Ade Akinfenwa, during the season.
For the match to be decided with under 1.5 goals is tempting value at 3.0.
As well as those two 1-0 wins, Bradford have beaten beaten Northampton on penalties in the FA Cup after 1-1 and 3-3 draws, emphasise Opta. As a caveat, Northampton suffered two defeats to Cheltenham but beat them in the play-offs.
A tight game seems in prospect. Bradford 1-0 is 7.0 and Northampton 1-0 is 8.0. I’m backing the Bantams and adding draw/Bradford in the half-time/full-time market.
Recommended Bets:
Back Bradford to win 1-0 @ 7.0
Back Draw/Bradford in the half-time/full-time market @ 5.7
First goalscorer:
If Kyel Reid gets the nod to play, which he did not for Bradford’s first Wembley appearance this season, he could provide the key crosses. Nakhi Wells is the all-too-obvious favourite at 5.7 to convert them, as the division’s second highest scorer with 21. Opta add that he has scored six in his last five games against the Cobblers – and seven in the last seven for the Bantams.
That he displayed footballers’ foot in mouth disease, bragging about his statistics and nicely doing Boothroyd’s team talk for him, counts against him. Might that leave the door open for James Hanson at 7.8?
Overall, I think Wells is the better striker and feel his quality could unlock the anticipated tight match. Alternatives, again if a set piece proves most effective for Bradford, include centre-backs Rory McArdle at 42.0 or Davies at 36.0.
Northampton’s candidates start with Akinfenwa (16 goals from 41 appearances – 30 starts), but he has not netted since mid-February, so makes little appeal at 6.8. Irishman Roy O’Donovan, who has scored three in his last four games, is more interesting at 9.6 but Kelvin Langmead at 17.0 is even more attractive, in my tight game scenario.
If the game goes Northampton’s way from a set piece, he has a good ratio, for a defender, of seven goals this season. It should be no surprise he was a striker until 2006.
Recommended Bets:
Back Nahki Wells to score first @ 5.7
Back Kelvin Longmead to score first @ 17.0
Milesey
Milesey, did my best with your bet of the day but I’m no translator.
Looks fine, i tried to translate it as much as possible from a preview site with google, but it didn’t go as planned, one time it put all the words back to front hahahaha, people only read the bets anyway ;)
Milesey
Milesey, we know that’s true about the tips. What’s your thoughts on Kaiserslautern v Federer today?
ha ha ha
Kaiserslautern went out yesterday, think he was injured for the game didn’t even take place, and David Ferrer got a walkover.
Milesey
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SUNDAY 19TH MAY 2013
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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Liverpool v QPR
Back Liverpool to win both halves @ 2.4 (7/5)
QPR complete their miserable campaign at Anfield but I can’t see them getting any respite from a rampant Liverpool.
The Reds are unbeaten in seven since their abysmal performance at St Mary’s back in March. They put three past Fulham last time out and hit Newcastle for six a fortnight ago. Luis Suarez hasn’t been missed at all as the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have really stepped up to the plate.
Sturridge banged in a hat trick at Craven Cottage but it’s the performances of the Brazilian that have perhaps been the most impressive. He is looking like quite a find by Brendan Rodgers as not only does he score goals, he creates plenty as well.
Harry Redknapp’s appointment at Loftus Road was supposed to kick-start their survival bid. It never really worked out though and Rangers are set to finish bottom of the pile – further adrift than when the former Spurs boss took over.
They’ve picked up just two points from a possible 24 and scored only two goals in their last half dozen. Both those goals were scored by Loic Remy but given the recent stories about him in the media, it’s not a certainty that he will even travel to Anfield.
Liverpool to win both halves at 2.4 (7/5) is probably my strongest fancy of the entire weekend.
Over 3.5 Goals @ 1/1
Daniel Sturridge 2 or more goals @ 11/4
Milesey
Bradford 2.46 Northampton 3.2; The draw 3.35
Wembley, Saturday, 13:30 BST
Bradford and Northampton seem to be generating similar storylines: both have hungry young managers in demand; both clubs were looking over their shoulders at the wrong end of League Two last season; both clubs are clearly better than that.
They have regrouped and restructured, thrusting their managers into the spotlight with signs they could be of interest to clubs higher up the pyramid.
Bradford’s Phil Parkinson, the former Charlton manager, has found fame from the club’s run to the Capital One Cup Final, against the odds as a fourth-tier team. Co-chairman Julian Rhodes hopes to tie him to a two-year deal after their 64-game season finally ends.
Meanwhile, Northampton chairman David Cordoza says he is expecting interest in Aidy Boothroyd, who led Watford to the Premiership in the past – via the playoffs and against the odds.
Arguably, Bradford are the bigger club of the two in this fixture. Home gates average 10,000 and they were a top flight club as recently as 1999-2001. They have been ripe for a turnaround and Parkinson has been the catalyst.
Were it not for that cup run, Bradford might have won automatic promotion, but that run gives them two edges: they have recent Wembley experience and an English record nine straight penalty shoot-out victories to fall back on.
Forget the 5-0 reverse in the cup final, it simply gives them unfinished business. Defeat was also against a team, Swansea, from three levels higher who brought their A game, which clearly Wigan, Arsenal and Aston Villa did not in previous rounds.
Anyone who took previous advice to back Bradford for promotion at 6.0, after Burton beat them in the semi-final first leg, can cashout at 1.8. Latecomers should try the win at 2.46 (90 minutes) or to win on penalties if the eventually starts to look likely.
Recommended Bet:
Back Bradford to win (90 minutes) @ 2.46
Correct score market:
It might seem like there were contrasting styles in the semi-finals, with Northampton taking two 1-0 wins over Cheltenham and Bradford’s games being high scorers (2-3 and 3-1). But the Bantams had only themselves to blame, as a lax first half in the first leg meant they had to chase goals.
They are quite capable of keeping things tight. Indeed Parkinson is pleased that talismatic defender Andrew Davies, who missed a large chunk of the season, helped thwart the big physical forward line of the Cobblers, especially Ade Akinfenwa, during the season.
For the match to be decided with under 1.5 goals is tempting value at 3.0.
As well as those two 1-0 wins, Bradford have beaten beaten Northampton on penalties in the FA Cup after 1-1 and 3-3 draws, emphasise Opta. As a caveat, Northampton suffered two defeats to Cheltenham but beat them in the play-offs.
A tight game seems in prospect. Bradford 1-0 is 7.0 and Northampton 1-0 is 8.0. I’m backing the Bantams and adding draw/Bradford in the half-time/full-time market.
Recommended Bets:
Back Bradford to win 1-0 @ 7.0
Back Draw/Bradford in the half-time/full-time market @ 5.7
First goalscorer:
If Kyel Reid gets the nod to play, which he did not for Bradford’s first Wembley appearance this season, he could provide the key crosses. Nakhi Wells is the all-too-obvious favourite at 5.7 to convert them, as the division’s second highest scorer with 21. Opta add that he has scored six in his last five games against the Cobblers – and seven in the last seven for the Bantams.
That he displayed footballers’ foot in mouth disease, bragging about his statistics and nicely doing Boothroyd’s team talk for him, counts against him. Might that leave the door open for James Hanson at 7.8?
Overall, I think Wells is the better striker and feel his quality could unlock the anticipated tight match. Alternatives, again if a set piece proves most effective for Bradford, include centre-backs Rory McArdle at 42.0 or Davies at 36.0.
Northampton’s candidates start with Akinfenwa (16 goals from 41 appearances – 30 starts), but he has not netted since mid-February, so makes little appeal at 6.8. Irishman Roy O’Donovan, who has scored three in his last four games, is more interesting at 9.6 but Kelvin Langmead at 17.0 is even more attractive, in my tight game scenario.
If the game goes Northampton’s way from a set piece, he has a good ratio, for a defender, of seven goals this season. It should be no surprise he was a striker until 2006.
Recommended Bets:
Back Nahki Wells to score first @ 5.7
Back Kelvin Longmead to score first @ 17.0
Milesey
EUROVISION
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The Eurovision Song Contest remains the original talent show, long before franchises like Pop Idol, The Voice and The X-Factor took over our television screens. This year’s edition will take place in Sweden (Malmo) but the bookie favourite is Denmark, best priced at 1.83 with Betfred.
The national selection of songs entered in the contest, are made without EBU involvement. Those songs must be chosen fairly and through a transparent process. There are no other requirements. The voting is a combination of the votes of television viewers and those of a selected jury. The results will determine specific rankings for each of the top ten countries. In terms of points, the number 1 song receives 12 points, down to one point for the tenth highest.
Last year’s winning song was the legitimately excellent “Euphoria,” performed by Sweden’s Loreen. In fact, Scandinavians have decided to fight back on their own in the last few years. All of them voted for Sweden in 2012, who got enough votes to edge home in front. Norway and Finland have also profited from this ploy recently so, by default, it must be Denmark‘s turn this year.
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2013: Top Contenders
DENMARK – Song: Only Teardrops – Artist: Emmelie de Forest
This song has been singled out early as the favourite, and with good reason. It seems to be a recipe for success. Twenty year old Emmelie de Forest is attractive with a rather endearing smile that screams confidence and vulnerability all in one.
Place a £20 bet on the Eurovision and if Denmark win, Unibet will refund your losing bet.
UKRAINE – Song: Gravity – Artist: Zlata Ognevich
This has been the real firmer in markets in recent days, overtaking Norway to cement second favouritism behind Denmark. However, the last 24 hours, it has been on the drift again after a number of problems during rehearsals.
NORWAY – Song: I Feed You My Love – Artist: Margaret Berger
If there’s a challenger to Zlata Ognevich for the sexiest contestant, it is definitely Margaret Berger. This blonde bombshell has been labelled “the ice queen” by many in her home country, which you will understand as soon as you see the clip for the song.
RUSSIA – Song: What if – Artist: Dina Garipova
Dina’s a dead-ringer for terrifying arch-capitalist Ruth Badger from the second series of The Apprentice, so it’s a surprise to see her knocking out the kind of sub-’Imagine’ peace and love clap trap that went out of fashion three days into the first summer of love.
GERMANY – Song: Glorious – Artist: Cascada
Remember Everytime We Touch, a Eurodance hit from 2005? If you can’t remember it off the top of your head, check it out on Youtube. You will recognise it. That song was performed by dance trio Cascada, headed by Natalie Horner, who are back in the spotlight as this year’s representative from Germany.
ITALY – Song: L’essenziale – Artist: Marco Mengoni
The language is a bad start with 38 of the 58 previous winners crooned in English or French, but Marco Menogni is in a weedy George Clooney kind of fashion. The vehicle for his charms is a stripped back acoustic cut devoid of any real hooks, but enjoyable for Senor Mengoni’s kooky facial gymnastics
SAN MARINO – Song: Crisalide (vola) – Artist: Valentina Monetta
An offensively average song from the self-styled “oldest sovereign state in the world” included in our list because, despite coming second to Denmark’s offering in the Organisation Générale des Amateurs de l’Eurovision pole.
SWEDEN – Song: You – Artist: Robin Stjernberg
No country has won back to back Eurovisions since Ireland won four in five years in the mid-1990s. It’s unlikely to happen again this year, although Sweden’s produced quite a good song. Robin Stjernberg was an upset winner at Sweden’s national contest Melodifestivalen. But You is a good song, similar to a lot of songs that have taken Europe by storm recently.
NETHERLANDS – Song: Birds – Artist: Anouk
This is probably the best song of this year’s competition. This song wasn’t written specifically for Eurovision, which is a positive (better than many of the songs which seem written with Eurovision in mind). And Anouk is a brilliant story teller, her voice is superb.
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2013: BEST odds
Denmark @ 1.83
Norway @ 8.00
Ukraine @ 13.00
Russia @ 15.00
Azerbaijan @ 17.50
Netherlands @ 30.00
Italy @ 30.00
Germany @ 31.00
Georgia @ 34.00
Finland @ 55.00
Ireland @ 67.00
Sweden @ 67.00
San Marino @ 71.00
Greece @ 71.00
UK @ 71.00
Malta @ 150.00
With the second semi-final in the bag, we now know which nations will contest Saturday’s Eurovision Song Contest final.
The votes have been cast, the second semi-final is over and we now know the identities of the 26 nations who will compete in the final of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest. Come Saturday evening one of these countries will have the unenviable task of following Malmo and hosting the 2014 competition. The big question now is which nation it will be?
Denmark remain the hot favourites, which is unsurprising given the pains that have been taken to produce a winning entry. Songwriter Lise Cabble has already written two songs which finished in the top 5 of a Eurovision contest and that knowledge shines through ‘Only Teardrops’, especially in the big, Eurovision-friendly, finish. For the British audience, singer Emmelie de Forest will evoke memories of Florence Welch, Kate Bush and, with her bare feet, none other than former winner Sandie Shaw. They are going to face some stiff competition, though, and that alone suggests that at 1.82 they are far too short a price to be attractive.
Norway came through the second semi-final and are second favourites at 10.5. An interesting pointer, though, is that although the votes of the jury deciding the semi-finals are supposed to be something of a secret, the order in which the winners were announced suggests that Margaret Berger’s ‘I Feed You My Love’ is a strong contender.
If you take the jury decision as an indicator of the way that they will vote in the Final – and votes from the jurists for the Final make up 50% of this mark – then the fact that the Norwegians were announced in a similar position in the order as the Danes two nights before suggests that they might be in a tighter race with their Scandinavian counterparts than the market might indicate.
The second semi-final also produced a number of interesting outside challengers. Iceland’s Eythor Ingi is a noted performer in stage musicals, having played roles as diverse as Riff Raff in The Rocky Horror Picture Show and Marius in Les Miserables. He appeared inspired by the semi-final and although his song ‘I Am Alive’ is possibly a little too downbeat for a Eurovision winner, it is bound to find favour with some juries and at 5.6 he represents a good bet for a top 10 finish.
Georgia’s entry, ‘Waterfall’, seemed to go down particularly well with the live audience. It is a more old fashioned type of song, of the sort which used to do well in the early years of the contest. There are elements of classical music, pop music and the theatrical in there, a mix reflected by the background of performers Nodi Tatishvili and Sophie Gelovani. Back them at 2.5 to finish in the top five.
None of which bodes well for Britain’s entry. Bonnie Tyler has been steadily drifting in the market and not only is now a 110.0 shot to win the competition (and a possibly generous 4.7 to even make the top 10), she is 8.2 to even finish top of the so-called Big Five nations, the group comprising Britain, France, Spain, Germany and Italy who don’t have to take part in the semi-finals. Admittedly, that’s better than the Spanish entry, ‘With You Until The End’ by ESDM, is doing – but that is because it is a truly horrible song and at 580.0 justifiably the rank outsider in the win market.
Recommended Bet:
Back Norway at 10.5 to win the Eurovision Song Contest
Milesey
Milesey’s GOLF BLOG
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After two days in Bulgaria, the convoluted and irritating group stage of the Volvo World Match Play Championship has finally finished and somewhat unsatisfactorily as far as I’m concerned. I woke up this morning to find in-running pick, Jamie Donaldson, three down after five holes to Brett Rumford and he ended-up losing 5 & 3. And my two pre-event picks, Ian Poulter and Bo Van Pelt were soon behind in their afternoon matches too.
Courtesy of two drawn matches and with much thanks to an awful finish by Geoff Ogilvy this afternoon, who threw away a two up with two to play lead when he three putted the last, the hapless Van Pelt somehow managed to scrape through, but Poulter, who looked like he might do the same, didn’t.
The grumpy Englishman had struggled all afternoon against Thomas Aiken but when he drew level with two to play, I was still confident that Mr Ryder Cup himself would just put the match to bed and move on to round two. It didn’t happen. He bogeyed the last and then threatened to hang himself!
I don’t have much confidence in Van Pelt tomorrow. Although I still think this venue really should suit his accurate game, he hasn’t putted especially well and he faces the number one seed and current favourite, Graeme McDowell, in the morning and I don’t fancy his chances.
Volvo World Match Play Championship Pre-Event Picks
Ian Poulter @ 9.8
Bo Van Pelt @ 23.0
Over at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, first round leader, Keegan Bradley, isn’t progressing anywhere near as impressively as he did yesterday, when he shot 60. He’s currently just one under-par for the day but he still leads by three. One of my very regular plays, Graham DeLaet, who in-theory was a good fit this week, is one of those tied for second as I type, so it’s fair to say I’m not exactly chuffed to bits with the state of play in Texas either.
One of my picks, John Huh, shot a decent six under-par round today though and on -7, he trails Bradley by four, so I’m not completely out of the game. I’ll let that one finish up tonight and take a look again in the morning but if Bradley could just throw in a couple of bogeys before he’s done today, I’d be most grateful.
HP Byron Nelson Championship Pre-Event Picks
D.A Points @ 51.0 (Fixed Odds)
Brian Gay @ 130.0
John Huh @ 130.0
Matt Every @ 150.0 (Fixed Odds)
James Driscoll @ 260.0
Justin Hicks @ 390.0
Patrick Reed @ 500.0
Milesey
https://www.betrockit.com/Sports/
You heard of BETROCKIT Mr F, they seem to be shooting up as one of the best online sportsbook.
Milesey
Milesey, not heard of them. I’ll mention to admin and have a look.
started up last year, and seem to be flying at the moment, as they are quite new, the initial bonus looks good, but from what i have read over last year they have offered no other bonus or promotions, and that was given across to them in the feedback from their customers, so that may well change as they start to find their feet more, but they look like one to watch out for, were 2nd in the list for the best online sportsbooks last year.
Milesey
Milesey, we’re off to the gaming conference in Amsterdam next month so they might be there.
Verona vs Empoli
Saturday 15:30
With a draw confirming Verona’s climb back into Serie A, a sold out crowd at the Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi will arrive in partisan style awaiting their clubs promotion – in typical Italian style…
With four wins on the spin, the Gialloblu have leap-frogged Verona into third spot. With a better head to head record than Livorno, as well as league leaders Sassuolo, promotion is assured if they can secure a point on Saturday afternoon.
Andrea Mandorlini will be delighted with his side’s improvement this season. After missing out in last year’s playoffs, defensive stability has been the key to their rise to the top of Serie B with an impressive 32 goals being conceded all campaign.
Furthermore, striker Daniele Cacia looks like he has finally settled in club football. After playing for six different teams in six seasons, the 29 year old has had a blistering campaign in Verona, which has seen him lead the race for the Italian golden boot with 24 goals. Scoring seven league doubles this season along with a hat trick in Varese, expect the Italian to finish the season in style with a contribution to the score sheet.
With the visitors secured of their playoff position, expect a weakened side to be picked by Maurizio Sarri, as he will be conscious of next weekend’s crunch tie. Finishing last season in 18th spot, Sarri has performed a minor miracle in his first season at Empoli and will be keen to carry on this success with a return to the top flight after a five-year wait.
With a draw @ 1.26 the value looks to be in the correct score market – Empoli wouldn’t have the nerve to spoil Verona’s party would they?
Recommended Bet:
Back 1-1 @ 2.52
Sassuolo vs Livorno
Saturday 15:30
Buckle up – it’s winner takes all in Sassuolo as first vs third face-off for promotion paradise. A win for either side could see them claim the Ali della Vittoria trophy as well as trips to the San Siro and Stadio San Paolo in next season’s Serie A.
After effectively having the title in the bag three weeks ago, the hosts have crumbled in recent matches taking only two points from a possible nine making hard work of getting over the finish line.
However, their campaign has been solid. Amounting twenty-four wins and only seven defeats has seen them at the summit for the majority of the season, with a lot of Di Francesco’s side’s good work being done in the early stages of the season.
With a plethora of goal-scoring options, the league’s top goal-scorers have had sixteen different players contribute this season – and with four players on eleven goals, expect no shortage of candidates praying for a game winning opportunity to fall their way on Saturday.
The visitors have a chance to steal promotion in dramatic style. Arguably the form side of the league, Livorno have only lost once in their last thirteen outings and with Sassuolo struggling for confidence, Aldo Spinelli will take a Amaranto side to the Stadio Alberto Braglia in expectation rather than hope.
A draw is no good for Livorno. Assuming that Verona and Empoli play out an expectant draw, Livorno will have to take all three points in a hostile environment if they are going to return to the promise land.
Expect a nervy performance by both sides amounting in Sassuolo clinging onto a crucial point.
Recommended Bet:
Back the draw @ 3.4
Back 0-0 @ 2.22
Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.5
Milesey
Granada v Osasuna
Saturday 19:00
Granada 2.18 Osasuna 4.2 draw 3.25
Together on 36 points, these two are four clear of the drop zone.
A draw would be useful to both, and respect the improvements they have recently shown: Osasuna beat Getafe last time out, while Granada are unbeaten in four.
That said, the hosts still have La Liga’s worst home record (W4-D6-L7) and haven’t scored more than once in any of Lucas Alcaraz’s seven matches at Los Carmenes.
We’re ready to take them on – and will front up with either the straight draw or a bet that goes even further.
The visitors have scored twice or more in 3/6 on the road. Backing Osasuna 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap pays out on half your stake if the game finishes all-square and you’ll get a full payout if the away side take all three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna 0 & +0.5 @ 2.2
Sevilla v Sociedad
Saturday 21:00
Sevilla 2.08 Sociedad 3.6 draw 4.0
In the race for Spain’s final Champions League spot, Real Sociedad have given up a five-point lead over Valencia in the last couple of weeks.
Problems are arising at the back: Philippe Montanier’s side have conceded exactly twice in 5/7 home and away.
Unai Emery has won 7/8 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. In all seven wins Sevilla have been ahead by half-time. If you fancy them to confirm Sociedad’s loss of form, take them at 3.6 in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Over 2.5 Goals is a safer play. It’s been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.7
Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 18:00
Zaragoza 1.9 Athletic 4.3 draw 3.9
Athletic are unbeaten in four and the seven points accrued in that run will likely keep their ‘never been relegated’ boasts alive.
Just to be sure, Marcelo Bielsa’s men need one more point from the final three rounds of the season.
Seven points from nine have fired Zaragoza out of the relegation zone, but they need more wins.
Athletic have scored in 12/14 on the road and conceded in 12/14 on the road.
Zaragoza have been potent in attack recently – scoring six in two at La Romareda – and porous in defence all season, shutting out their visitors in only 3/17.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.8
Barcelona v Valladolid
Sunday 20:00
Barcelona 1.31 Valladolid 11.0 draw 6.6
Barcelona are champions and are now playing for the artificial prize of equalling Real Madrid’s all-time points record (100, set last year).
To make three figures Tito Vilanova’s men must win each of their last three games.
Leo Messi will sit out the rest of the season, but other team news is scant.
We’ll focus on the other end of the pitch. Valladolid have scored in nine straight rounds of La Liga and in each of the last 17 in which talismanic wide-forward Patrick Ebert has appeared.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.77
Milesey
Brentford v Yeovil Town
Sunday 13:30 BST, Live on Sky Sports 2
Match Odds:
Brentford are the favourites heading to Wembley for the League One showpiece at 2.24. Considering they only finished two points ahead of Yeovil in the regular season one could argue the price would be short enough to lay. The Glovers are the outsiders at 3.50, with the draw trading at roughly the same odds.
Town have won just two of their last five games whilst Brentford are without a victory in their last five (excluding penalties).
The road to Wembley:
I wasn’t even thinking of the playoffs final during the dying embers of the season for Brentford. Marcello Trotta’s 94th minute missed penalty against Doncaster forced the Londoners into the two-legged affair with Swindon, which again involved some late drama.
The Bees’ back four played well in the first-leg at Swindon (1-1), but conceded late in the return game (3-3), before securing their path to the final with a penalty shoot-out win.
Yeovil had a bruising pair of encounters with Sheffield United, but were good enough to come through courtesy of a 2-0 win at Huish Park.
Head-to-head:
Gary Johnson’s side hold the advantage over Brentford from the regular season with healthy wins in August (3-1) and February (3-0). Yeovil’s Ed Upson scored a spectacular long-range effort in the Huish Park clash, a game in which the Londoners were the better team for the first 35 minutes.
On the plus side, Uwe Rosler’s outfit had plenty of clear cut chances – sadly taking none of them.
First goalscorer market:
Brentford striker Clayton Donaldson has netted three times in his last five appearances and trades at 5.70 to score first at Wembley. Only Paddy Madden (23) fired more goals in League One than Donaldson (20). Madden trades at around 6.0 but hasn’t found the net in his last six appearances according to Opta Stats.
Ed Upson trades at 18.50 and would be interesting with his long-range prowess, whilst Brentford’s Kevin O’Connor (who scored the late penalty against Swindon in the semi-finals), should be available to back at around 17.0 as the designated spot-kick taker.
Under/over 2.5 goals:
The fact that Yeovil scored six goals against the Bees during the season has been ignored by the layers, who are predicting (and quite rightly) a tight game. Unders is the favourite at 1.84, but if this is too short for some, it’s always worth dabbling in the 0-0 correct scoreline up to half-time to garner a profit. Five of Yeovil’s last six affairs have seen one of the sides failing
to score.
However, the Opta Stat I am most interested in states that five of the last six League One playoff finals have seen one or both of the teams failing to score.
Late goal specialists:
According to Opta Stats, each of Brentford’s last three matches has featured a goal scored after the 90th minute, whilst six of their last seven games has seen a goal after 83 minutes. The Londoners also picked up an astonishing 23 points from losing positions in League One during the season (a division high).
To add a further boost to the potential in-play backing, the Bees scored 20 goals in the final fifteen minutes of matches during the campaign, which was a joint high with none other than Yeovil.
Method of victory:
This is my most favoured market. I anticipate a tight game between two fairly evenly matched sides. Both have good forwards, but likewise both defend well. Brentford would be the more comfortable in possession, which could suit Yeovil’s press and run style. However, using this method of backing both teams to win on penalties at fairly big prices only needs a small stake.
Recommended bets:
Lay Brentford @ 2.24
Back Yeovil penalties @ 12.0
Back Brentford penalties @ 12.0
Milesey