England v New Zealand, Thursday, 11am
Live on Sky Sports 1
ENGLAND a little bashful ahead of this two-Test series. They know they were embarrassed in the away leg, failing to beat a competitve but ultimately limited side.
Indeed, they were fortunate to avoid the ignominy of defeat. They will have to set the record straight without Kevin Pietersen who has a knee injury. But Steven Finn, Stuart Broad and James Anderson are all present to form a pace attack which is formidable. Perhaps the biggest boost is Graeme Swann's return. He missed the Kiwi tour and it could be he makes the difference. Tim Bresnan is also fit again.
Neil Wagner and Trent Boult, the pacemen who caused England problems, are both on tour. The pair took 23 wickets between them and should relish bowling in similar conditions to back home in New Zelaand.
As they are both green to international cricket, it will be interesting to see whether they can consistently produce on an away tour. But New Zealand's experienced pros can help them out. It is time Ross Taylor, for example, stopped sulking and scored some runs. He managed just 94 in the three Tests and if Brendon McCullum, Hamish Rutherford and Peter Fulton can bat around the star man the Kiwis are a threat.
Essentially England were guilty of turning up in New Zealand and expecting to win. They didn't work hard enough and by the time they realised it they found they are not good enough to turn it on when they want to.
There will be no complacency this time. Certainly they will helped by the wickets at Lord's and Headingley. The ball should do more in those two games than in three on stodgy Kiwi wickets. England are 1.42 for victory.
That is not a price that interests us. Nor is the 10.0 about New Zealand tempting enough. They do not beat the top six regularly enough – they have three wins since March 2008.
The draw at 4.0 does tempt, however, especially given the form guide and the poor May weather that is hanging around. A 1-0 England win is 2.58 and 2-0 is 2.68. One of these represents the best value and it is probably wiser to reckon England will start sluggishly, the Kiwis will battle, there will be rain about but the hosts will pip it them at Leeds.
A back-to-lay of the draw at 2.60 or so is a shrewd trade for the first game at headquarters. Traditionally there is a bit in it for the bowlers early on but once the moisture lifts the wicket is good to bat on.
England and South Africa enjoyed a ding-dong encounter there last term with the Proteas eventually winning by 51 runs. Otherwise England's recent record is superb, winning six of the previous seven. They are 1.84 with New Zealand, hugely tradeable at 13.00. The weather forecast, by the way, is not too bad. There are spots of rain but nothing to damaging.
The first-innings average in the last 10 Tests is a whopping 411. And it is England who have produced the bulk. More than 375 would be a decent pick here.
Matt Prior, recently named England's player of the year, was their saviour in New Zealand with 311 runs. He is likely to go off around 8.00. Wunderkind Joe Root, who hit 179 against New Zealand in the tour match, is 5.70. Root is 2.70 for a 50 in the first-innings and that looks a good wager.
In that game at Grace Road, Rutherford also hit a century. But it was Peter Fulton, with 347 runs, who top scored in the previous meeting. He is too big at 7.00. McCullum is 4.90.
Recommended Bets
England to win 1-0 at 2.58
J Root to score a 50 in 1st innings at 2.70
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi Daredevils
3:30 ITV4
Kings XI Punjab
Every time we write Punjab off, they fight back as Bangalore have twice found to their cost in the past few days. After being matched at 890.0 to win the tournament, Adam Gilchrist’s men are back in the hunt and merely double figure odds. They still need a minor miracle, involving winning their two remaining matches and results in another three going their way, just to make the play-offs. Nevertheless, stranger things have happened, Kings XI are on a roll and must be rated strong favourites for today’s match. Most encouragingly, Gilchrist has at last found some form, taking some pressure off their key men Shaun Marsh and David Miller.
Delhi Daredevils
In stark contrast to today’s less fashionable opponents, Delhi have nothing to play for besides a humiliating struggle to avoid finishing bottom and in some players’ cases, a last-ditch attempt to save their contracts. Their demise has been the surprise story of this year’s IPL and big changes must be expected after the post-mortem. The principal problem has been batting, with Tuesday’s 135 the latest in a series of poor totals. Nobody besides David Warner has taken responsibility for the middle-order in the absence of Kevin Pietersen, and this core weakness will make it hard to register a competitive total at this generous ground.
First Innings Runs
There’s an element of guesswork about the runs because this is the first match of the season to be played at Dharamsala, but the limited historical evidence points strongly towards backing overs. In six IPL matches here, the lowest score for a full first innings was 170, the highest an eyewatering 232. There was also a 198 and the two low totals were chased down with the minimum of fuss. Unless there are dramatically different expectations at the toss, I’ll be backing ‘overs’ in the 170, 180 and 190 plus bands.
Match odds
If both sides had something to play for, the betting would be much tighter and taking odds of just 1.7 involves the dubious assumption that Punjab’s extra incentive will make the difference. That doesn’t appeal much but then nor does this atrocious Delhi batting line-up. Teams generally need the middle-order to contribute significantly in order to win on this ground, so supremacy on that score makes Punjab a tentative selection.
Top Punjab batsman
Now David Miller hasn’t top-scored for a couple of matches, this emerging superstar is reasonable value again at around 5.5. He’s won this market four times in ten appearances and is bound to be at the crease during the second part of the innings, when runs tend to flow fast here.
Top Delhi batsman
The only Delhi batsman to have consistently performed is David Warner and he is a fair price even at just 4.0. Given Delhi’s habit of collapsing, however, I prefer to look for bigger prices further down their order. Irfan Pathan nearly landed a touch for us when finishing a close second in this market away to Sunrisers, and the all-rounder remains decent value at around 17.0.
Recommended bet
Back Kings XI Punjab @ 1.7
Milesey
RESULT
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INDIA: Premier League
Kings XI Punjab 171-164 Delhi Daredevils
Milesey
WTA Internazionali BNL d’Italia Betting
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As the field thins out in the Italian capital, there are some potentially thrilling quarter-final clashes to look forward to. However, all sixteen remaining players are in action on Thursday hoping to extend their stay in the tournament.
World number five Na Li gets proceedings under-way as she takes on two-time champion Jelena Jankovic.
The latter has dropped just five games in her two matches thus far, while Li comfortably overcame compatriot Jie Zheng in the last round.
History would suggest a tight contest, as Li leads the way 4-3 in their head-to-head record, and despite the Serbian’s fondness for this tournament expect her Chinese opponent to prevail as she gets into her stride ahead of the French Open.
There is still a strong Italian presence in the third round, but both Roberta Vinci and Sara Errani will have their hands full when they take on qualifier Simona Halep and Maria Kirilenko respectively.
Despite her inferior world ranking, Halep ended world number four Agnieszka Radwanska’s stay at the Foro Italico prematurely in the last round as she won despite dropping the first set.
She also defeated her Italian rival on clay in Barcelona last year, however she will have to contend with a partisan crowd cheering on the home favourite, and it may well be a match too far.
Errani arguably faces the tougher test against Kirilenko, who has been relatively untroubled thus far. At first glance this may look a tough match to call, but with their last four meetings seeing the winner prevail in straight sets, back this match to be over in two.
World number one Serena Williams also returns to the clay on Thursday, and should have few scares in getting past Dominika Cibulkova. That is reflected in her odds, with little value to be had.
The same could be said for the world’s number two and three, with Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka facing Sloane Stephens and Ayumi Morita respectively.
The Russian ace is still on course to seal a third straight title in the Eternal City, and similarly to Azarenka, neither have lost to their third round opponents previously and have yet to drop a set in their meetings.
Perhaps the pick of the round in terms of competitiveness and value is Petra Kvitova’s clash with Samantha Stosur.
The ninth seeded Australian has looked in good form, progressing through to this stage without dropping a set. Meanwhile, Kvitova was given a scare by Sabine Lisicki in the last round but eventually went on to win in three sets.
Despite losing all four of their previous meetings, Stosur is a slight favourite to advance at the expense of Kvitova given the latter’s disappointment on this surface. Although this may well be a real battle, back the Czech star to book her place in the last eight.
Recommended Bets:
Back Kvitova to beat Stosur @ 2.08
Back Errani to beat Kirilenko 2-0 @ 2.22
Back the over 21.5 games market in Li-Jankovic @ 2.02
Back Vinci to beat Halep @ 1.79
Milesey
RESULTS
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Jankovic J. (Srb) 2-0 Li N. (Chn)
( 7 – 6 ) ( 7 – 5 )
= total of 25 games
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Errani S. (Ita) 1-0 Kirilenko M. (Rus)
kirilenko retired
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Milesey
The final weekend of the 2012/13 Premier League season
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Chelsea 1.73 v Everton 5.5; The Draw 4.1
Everton have only won one of their last 20 games at Stamford Bridge, so we can immediately disregard an away win from a statistical analysis point of view. However, six of the last 12 Premier League meetings between the two teams have ended in a draw, so the home win isn’t an obvious conclusion to draw.
Everton have won their last five Premier League games played on the final day of the season, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea in 2010-11, while Chelsea are unbeaten in seven Premier League matches (W5 D2); their longest such run under Rafael Benitez.
With both sides having positives in the statistics, and the draw a popular result in this fixture, it makes sense to take the 4.1 on offer.
Best Bet: Back The Draw @ 4.1
Liverpool 1.26 v QPR 14.5; The Draw 7.0
QPR have taken just one point from their previous five Premier League visits to Anfield and have collected just two points from their last eight games this season. So the home win, although short at 1.26, looks a shoo-in.
For a greater return, however, we can look to the goals markets. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 15 home league games, while Rangers have not scored from open play in their last 455 minutes of Premier League football.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.82
Man City 1.36 v Norwich 11.0; The Draw 5.4
Norwich have won only one of their previous 11 Premier League games against Manchester City, and have been on the receiving end of some one-sided batterings in recent meetings.
City have scored 18 goals in their last four league games against the Canaries, with Sergio Aguero scoring four of those. More than the Argentine has scored against any other Premier League side.
Best Bet: Back Any Unquoted @ 4.4
Southampton 1.82 v Stoke 5.2; The Draw 3.8
Southampton have won six and drawn one of their last seven home games against Stoke City in all competitions, but are without a win in five successive Premier League matches (D3 L2) against all opposition; netting just two goals during this run.
With the Potters having scored only five goals in their last 10 Premier League away matches, the obvious conclusion is to go low on the number of goals scored this weekend.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
Swansea 1.91 v Fulham 4.4; The Draw 3.8
Swansea have a 100% Premier League record against Fulham having won each of their previous three meetings, and after losing just one of their last nine Premier League games its easy to conclude that a home win represents value at odds of 1.91.
If you’re looking for a bet at bigger odds then it may be worth looking at the HT/FT market. 11 of Dimitar Berbatov’s 14 Premier League goals for Fulham have come before half-time, while Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals in the second half of matches in the Premier League this season (70%).
Best Bet: Back Fulham/Swansea @ 30.0 in HT/FT
West Brom 4.9 v Man Utd 1.82; The Draw 4.1
Only Chelsea (33) have scored more Premier League goals against West Brom than Manchester United (32), suggesting that Sir Alex Ferguson could sing off in style from his Manchester United tenure in his 1500th game.
Man Utd also have the best points per game ratio in the month of May in the history of the competition (2.07), while West Brom have the worst (0.84), of current top flight teams.
Best Bet: Back Man Utd to win @ 1.82
West Ham 1.7 v Reading 5.8; The Draw 4.0
The Hammers have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D3 L1), but have won only one of their previous five Premier League meetings with Reading (D1 L3).
Reading’s record of having won fewer points away from home than any other side in the Premier League season means that we cannot back the visitors, but there is room to take on the hosts at odds-on prices.
Best Bet: Lay West Ham to win @ 1.7
Wigan 2.24 v Aston Villa 3.55; The Draw 3.55
Wigan have failed to win any of their last six home games in the Premier League against Aston Villa (D2 L4), and with the wind being battered out of them by Arsenal in midweek I can’t be having them as favourites here.
However, Christian Benteke’s suspension will leave Villa short of impetus in front of goal – he has contributed to half of Villa’s 30 Premier League goals this year (14 goals, 1 assist) – and so we should expect a low-scoring end-of-season stalemate.
Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 15.0
Milesey
Newcastle v Arsenal
Back the draw @ 4.2 (16/5)
Back a 2-2 correct score @ 12.0 (11/1)
Newcastle take on Arsenal in one of only two really meaningful games and while The Gunners know that a win will secure Champions League football, I think that the draw is a huge runner at odds of 4.2 (16/5)
The Magpies have endured a difficult campaign that has been blighted by injuries and fixture congestion. Those excuses withstanding, Alan Pardew’s men have performed well below par and they are very lucky to not need a result going into this game.
The pressure will be off for a change though and I’m sure everyone involved with the club will want to finish the season on a high. Hatem Ben Arfa is back from injury and he netted from the spot at QPR last weekend. The defence aren’t up to much but they do at least have some quality players in the forward areas.
Arsenal are on a magnificent run of nine unbeaten since the defeat at White Hart Lane that many thought had ended their top four aspirations. Seven wins and two draws have lifted them about Spurs and they only have to match their rivals’ result on the final day.
Arsene Wenger’s side have looked a bit flaky at times though and they don’t have a leader on the field to rally the troops when the chips are down. I just have a sneaky suspicion that an away win isn’t the formality that the odds suggest and there could be one last twist to come.
The draw is just too big at 4.2 (16/5) and I also quite fancy a 2-2 scoreline at 12.0 (11/1) as we’ve had some high scoring results between these two in recent seasons.
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Liverpool v QPR
Back Liverpool to win both halves @ 2.4 (7/5)
QPR complete their miserable campaign at Anfield but I can’t see them getting any respite from a rampant Liverpool.
The Reds are unbeaten in seven since their abysmal performance at St Mary’s back in March. They put three past Fulham last time out and hit Newcastle for six a fortnight ago. Luis Suarez hasn’t been missed at all as the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have really stepped up to the plate.
Sturridge banged in a hat trick at Craven Cottage but it’s the performances of the Brazilian that have perhaps been the most impressive. He is looking like quite a find by Brendan Rodgers as not only does he score goals, he creates plenty as well.
Harry Redknapp’s appointment at Loftus Road was supposed to kick-start their survival bid. It never really worked out though and Rangers are set to finish bottom of the pile – further adrift than when the former Spurs boss took over.
They’ve picked up just two points from a possible 24 and scored only two goals in their last half dozen. Both those goals were scored by Loic Remy but given the recent stories about him in the media, it’s not a certainty that he will even travel to Anfield.
Liverpool to win both halves at 2.4 (7/5) is probably my strongest fancy of the entire weekend.
Milesey
Spanish Copa del Rey Final action on Friday Night comes from The Santiago Bernabeu Stadium with the Madrid derby between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
REAL MADRID v ATLETICO MADRID
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There has been the sense that since Real Madrid were beaten in the Champions League semi final by Borussia Dortmund, that turmoil is coming to a boil. Jose Mourinho seems to be losing more friends in the dressing room but he could still finish with a bang by winning a derby match in the final of the Copa del Rey.
Real Madrid have won four of their last five, one of those wins being a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid in a big La Liga clash. Their draw at Espanyol on Saturday was the first that they have not won in five matches in all competitions, having previously beaten Malaga, Valladolid, Dortmund and this weekend’s opponents Atletico But the most important thing is that Real have won the last ten matches against Atletico.
Mesut Ozil is set to return for Jose Mourinho’s side having missed the draw with Espanyol while Sergio Ramos and Marcelo look set to be available again after recovering from their respective problems. Rapahael Varane is definitely out with a serious knee injury picked up at the weekend. Varane’s injury could provide a reprieve for Pepe, who has fallen out of favour after lashing out at Mourinho’s treatment of club captain Iker Casillas.
Atletico Madrid have had a decent enough campaign and have definitely secured their place amongst Europes Elite in the Champions League next season. They were pegged back by Barcelona on Sunday, conceding two late goals to lose 2-1 after Radamel Falcao had given them the lead early in the second half. It means that Diego Simeone’s men have now won only one of their last four
Argentine Simeone, who helped Atletico to win their last Cup as a player in 1996, has a full squad to choose from and in Brazilian striker Diego Costa has the tournament’s leading scorer with seven goals.
Radamel Falcao has never been on the losing side in a major final and has also never failed to score in one either and that will at least provide the Los Rojiblancos with some hope of achieving the impossible and winning this game. The Colombian striker has netted 28 Primera Division goals this term, almost half of the 62 Atletico scored.
Atletico actually have the best defensive record in La Liga by something of a country mile and therefore they are capable of springing a surprise.
REAL MADRID (4-2-3-1): Lopez; Marcelo, Albiol, Ramos, Coentrao; Alonso, Modric; Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo; Higuain
ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Courtois; Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Filipe Luis; Garcia, Gabi, Suarez, Koke; Diego Costa, Falcao
The Draw @ 4.68 pinnacle
Both teams to score @ 1.65 mybet
2:2 Correct Score @ 19.00 totesport
Falcao anytime goalscorer @ 2.75 skybet
Milesey
EUROVISION
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The Eurovision Song Contest remains the original talent show, long before franchises like Pop Idol, The Voice and The X-Factor took over our television screens. This year’s edition will take place in Sweden (Malmo) but the bookie favourite is Denmark, best priced at 1.83 with Betfred.
The national selection of songs entered in the contest, are made without EBU involvement. Those songs must be chosen fairly and through a transparent process. There are no other requirements. The voting is a combination of the votes of television viewers and those of a selected jury. The results will determine specific rankings for each of the top ten countries. In terms of points, the number 1 song receives 12 points, down to one point for the tenth highest.
Last year’s winning song was the legitimately excellent “Euphoria,” performed by Sweden’s Loreen. In fact, Scandinavians have decided to fight back on their own in the last few years. All of them voted for Sweden in 2012, who got enough votes to edge home in front. Norway and Finland have also profited from this ploy recently so, by default, it must be Denmark‘s turn this year.
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2013: Top Contenders
DENMARK – Song: Only Teardrops – Artist: Emmelie de Forest
This song has been singled out early as the favourite, and with good reason. It seems to be a recipe for success. Twenty year old Emmelie de Forest is attractive with a rather endearing smile that screams confidence and vulnerability all in one.
Place a £20 bet on the Eurovision and if Denmark win, Unibet will refund your losing bet.
UKRAINE – Song: Gravity – Artist: Zlata Ognevich
This has been the real firmer in markets in recent days, overtaking Norway to cement second favouritism behind Denmark. However, the last 24 hours, it has been on the drift again after a number of problems during rehearsals.
NORWAY – Song: I Feed You My Love – Artist: Margaret Berger
If there’s a challenger to Zlata Ognevich for the sexiest contestant, it is definitely Margaret Berger. This blonde bombshell has been labelled “the ice queen” by many in her home country, which you will understand as soon as you see the clip for the song.
RUSSIA – Song: What if – Artist: Dina Garipova
Dina’s a dead-ringer for terrifying arch-capitalist Ruth Badger from the second series of The Apprentice, so it’s a surprise to see her knocking out the kind of sub-’Imagine’ peace and love clap trap that went out of fashion three days into the first summer of love.
GERMANY – Song: Glorious – Artist: Cascada
Remember Everytime We Touch, a Eurodance hit from 2005? If you can’t remember it off the top of your head, check it out on Youtube. You will recognise it. That song was performed by dance trio Cascada, headed by Natalie Horner, who are back in the spotlight as this year’s representative from Germany.
ITALY – Song: L’essenziale – Artist: Marco Mengoni
The language is a bad start with 38 of the 58 previous winners crooned in English or French, but Marco Menogni is in a weedy George Clooney kind of fashion. The vehicle for his charms is a stripped back acoustic cut devoid of any real hooks, but enjoyable for Senor Mengoni’s kooky facial gymnastics
SAN MARINO – Song: Crisalide (vola) – Artist: Valentina Monetta
An offensively average song from the self-styled “oldest sovereign state in the world” included in our list because, despite coming second to Denmark’s offering in the Organisation Générale des Amateurs de l’Eurovision pole.
SWEDEN – Song: You – Artist: Robin Stjernberg
No country has won back to back Eurovisions since Ireland won four in five years in the mid-1990s. It’s unlikely to happen again this year, although Sweden’s produced quite a good song. Robin Stjernberg was an upset winner at Sweden’s national contest Melodifestivalen. But You is a good song, similar to a lot of songs that have taken Europe by storm recently.
NETHERLANDS – Song: Birds – Artist: Anouk
This is probably the best song of this year’s competition. This song wasn’t written specifically for Eurovision, which is a positive (better than many of the songs which seem written with Eurovision in mind). And Anouk is a brilliant story teller, her voice is superb.
EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2013: BEST ODDS
Denmark @ 1.83
Norway @ 8.00
Ukraine @ 13.00
Russia @ 15.00
Azerbaijan @ 17.50
Netherlands @ 30.00
Italy @ 30.00
Germany @ 31.00
Georgia @ 34.00
Finland @ 55.00
Ireland @ 67.00
Sweden @ 67.00
San Marino @ 71.00
Greece @ 71.00
UK @ 71.00
Malta @ 150.00
Moldova @ 124.00
Belarus @ 160.00
Belgium @ 151.00
France @ 151.00
Estonia @ 251.00
Lithuania @ 300.00
Switzerland @ 251.00
Hungary @ 301.00
Romania @ 320.00
Spain @ 301.00
Iceland @ 1000.00
Israel @ 1000.00
Bulgaria @ 501.00
Albania @ 1000.00
Armenia @ 501.00
FYR Macedonia @ 1000.00
Milesey