IT'S quarter-finals day at the Mutua Madrid Open and Andy Murray is in action again after his late night win but this is far as he goes and Stan Wawrinka should also progress.
Fernando Verdasco got my hopes up on Thursday in Madrid by producing a superb performance in the opening set against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
From dominating the early stages of the match Fernando became, well, Fernando as he collapsed like a badly erected tent in the decider, being broken to love in the opening game and foiling my handicap bet in the process.
I couldn't have been more accurate in my prediction in the Andy Murray v Gilles Simon clash though in which I said that it could go on all day. Indeed it did and those on my suggestion of over 20.5 games were more than satisfied in an awful encounter that lasted just shy of three hours.
Anyone who stayed up for the duration of that one deserves a medal and Murray will need to improve today when he takes on my outright tip Tomas Berdych this evening in which I'll obviously be rooting for Berdych who has to be worth a wager for those not involved outright.
The Czech has been backed into slight favouritism at 1.97 now and Murray's 5-14 record against top-10 opponents on clay suggests that is value, along with Berdych's 2-0 clay record against Murray and everything we've seen this week.
And I also like the chances of Wawrinka who takes on Tsonga in the night match at around 9pm UK time straight after Murray/Berdych.
Stan is in prime form at the moment and he should have beaten Tsonga in Monte Carlo on the dirtbut totally lost his way after dominating the opening set in that clash.
He's been working with Magnus Norman lately and he'll be super confident after winning in Oeiras by crushing David Ferrer in the final there and taking down Novak Djokovic's conqueror Grigor Dimitrov last night.
Tsonga has benefited from mental meltdowns from both Verdasco and Robin Haase and if Stan can stay focused and not go walkabout he should take this one.
Recommended Bet
Back Wawrinka to beat Tsonga at 1.75
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
DOGS Romford, Friday
Rummy Lord (20:18) ** WIN @ 4/6 **
Droopys Move (20:50) ** WIN @ 11/10 **
Airforce Roger (21:24) ** 3RD @ 7/2
Nans Turbo (21:56) ** WIN @ 2/1 **
Glanmire Lad (22:11) ** WIN @ 4/7 **
Lughill Valerie (22:26) ** WIN @ 3/1 **
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Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.74 in Ceske Budejovice v Hradlec Kralove
RESULT: 1 – 0
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Over 2.5 match goals @ 4/5 IN Zorya V Metalist Kharkiv
RESULT: 1 – 3
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Back Draw in Crystal Palace v Brighton at 3.2
RESULT: 0 – 0
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Levante v Zaragoza
Back the draw @ 3.4
RESULT: 0 – 0
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Murray A. (Gbr) 0 – 2 Berdych T. (Cze)
BACK Berdych @ 1.97
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Wawrinka S. (Sui) 2 – 1 Tsonga J-W. (Fra)
Back Wawrinka @ 1.75
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GOLF
LEADER AFTER ROUND 2 IS SERGIO GARCIA -11….. ONTO MY PICKS, AND LOOKS LIKE MICKELSON HASN’T MADE THE CUT.
WEBB SIMPSON @ 28.0 -6
Marc Leishman @ 220.0 -6
Ben Crane @ 140.0 -4
Luke Donald @ 24.0 -3
John Huh @ 280.0 -2
Phil Mickelson @ 30.0 +1
Mark Wilson @ 400.0 +4
Milesey
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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ESPANYOL V REAL MADRID…….. 9PM K/O
Real Madrid seem to have been playing all-out attack for the last few games, as Jose aims to bow out amid memories of silky attacking flair rather than dour defensive gamesmanship. They travel to Barcelona on Saturday night although, sadly for El Clasico fans, it is to visit Espanyol rather than the champions elect.
Even Scotland would fancy their chances of scoring past Jose’s jokers at the moment, so even though Espanyol are the very definition of mid-table mediocrity, with no goals in their last two outings, this one looks like absolutely nailed on for Both Teams To Score.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 8/13 Bet365
Milesey
FA CUP FINAL
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The FA Cup has become almost as much of a closed shop as the Premier League in recent years and the stats say Manchester City should have little trouble taking the trophy for the second time in three years with victory over Wigan.
But the strong figures associated with the dominance of the big six teams mean there are some good alternatives to the short-priced options of City to lift the trophy at 1.21 and to win the match in 90 minutes at 1.36.
City are now part of the big six and between them that group have won the FA Cup in 22 of the past 24 years. The big-six side has won the last 10 finals when faced by a team from outside that group, nine of them in 90 minutes and eight of them to nil. The dominance of the big six has been almost total.
Just as tellingly, top-four finishers against teams below that group have won 10 out of 10 in the Premier League era, with a 90-minute record of won nine and drawn one.
All of those figures point to a City win in 90 minutes, most probably to nil, and their excellent cup record suggests they will not fail on Saturday. Since Roberto Mancini took charge, City have had 13 wins and only one defeat out of 18 in 90-minute play in the FA Cup. The one defeat was excusable as it was against the strongest possible opponent (Manchester United last season) and only after they had been fatally weakened by Vincent Kompany’s early sending-off.
Most of Wigan’s form this season indicates they lack the class to cause an upset. The only team of note they have beaten en route to Wembley is Everton in the 3-0 quarter-final win at Goodison Park. All their other ties were against lower-league opponents (Bournemouth, Macclesfield, Huddersfield and Millwall).
And in the Premier League this season Wigan have lost nine out of 11 against big-six teams (eight of the defeats were to nil). The only big-six team they have had any success against is Tottenham, with a 1-0 away win and a 2-2 home draw, and their only other goal against a big-six team came in a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea.
It is notable that Mancini has had no problem at all with Wigan since taking over as City boss. His side have won all seven meetings and all to nil (3-0 twice, 2-0 twice and 1-0 three times).
City to win to nil at 1.89 looks a good bet, based on both the overall FA Cup final stats and the City-Wigan head-to-heads.
City have never led more than 1-0 at half-time in those seven meetings (that has been the score four times, with 0-0 on the other three occasions) and it is worth noting that the opening goal in this season’s two league matches came in the 69th minute at Wigan (in a 2-0 win) and in the 83rd minute in City’s 1-0 home win.
A half-time score of 0-0 is tempting at 3.2, although for bigger odds it might be worth trying draw/Man City on the half-time/full-time at 3.95.
The obvious second choice for the half-time score is 1-0 to City at 3.25 and that might be better than backing City/City on the half-time/full-time at 2.0.
Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 is strongly indicated, as 14 of the last 20 finals have had unders and so have five of the seven City-Wigan matches in the Mancini era.
For a correct score, 1-0 to City at 8.4 and 2-0 to City at 7.4 look the best options. Eleven of the 20 finals in the Premier League era have had one of those scorelines.
Recommended Bets
Manchester City to win to nil at 1.89
Under 2.5 goals at 2.28
Milesey
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Saturday May 11, 12.45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Two
Chelsea’s wait for a guaranteed top four spot was extended on Wednesday as Tottenham hit back twice to earn a draw. While The Blues would have wanted to wrap it up before the weekend in order to field a fringe squad ahead of the Europa League final, the fact they didn’t just makes them a better bet to win this game.
Rafa Benitez has said that Frank Lampard will feature at Villa Park so it’s not like he has a lack of quality to choose from as he plans to freshen things up. Benitez confirmed that Eden Hazard should be okay despite limping off at Stamford Bridge and similar applies to Victor Moses.
The last time Chelsea played away from home was at Old Trafford and they pulled off a fantastic 1-0 victory. That was their ninth away win in the league this term and they are now unbeaten on their travels since the 2-1 defeat at Southampton at the end of March.
Aston Villa have ran into form at exactly the right time and five wins from their last eight have propelled them to 13th in the table. They have hit that magical 40 point mark and while they aren’t mathematically safe, it’s hard to see Wigan getting the victory they need at the Emirates.
Christian Benteke has been in superb form – 18 goals in his debut season, including a hat trick against Sunderland – but he hasn’t netted against a side in the top five yet and Chelsea have one of the best defences in the league.
I still have my concerns about the Villa defence as well – no clean sheet in 2013 – and they are vulnerable from set plays. John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic and Gary Cahill all get their fair share of headed goals and this is an area I can see them exploiting on Saturday.
Match odds
Chelsea are 1.86 to get a vital away win and while the draw did tempt me at 3.85, memories of the 8-0 at Stamford Bridge came flooding back. Despite Villa still not being quite safe, The Blues certainly need the points more than they do and I think this experienced Chelsea side can do a ‘professional job’ on Paul Lambert’s young guns.
To Score
The games are running out for Frank Lampard to break Bobby Tambling’s goal-scoring record as he still needs two more with only three matches left before his contract runs out. Lampard is a hugely popular player amongst his team mates so I expect they will be teeing him up at every available opportunity, as well as letting him take most of the free kicks to go with his penalty duties. He was benched for the Spurs game and Rafa has said he will feature so it’s almost a certainty that he’ll start. He can be backed at around the 3.4 mark to score within the 90 minutes and that looks a steal to me.
Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea @ 1.86
Back Frank Lampard to score @ 3.4
Milesey
GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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First on the list this weekend will keep us interested in the Premier League’s only action on Saturday when Chelsea make the trip to Aston Villa, but instead of usual suspect Christian Benteke, we’ll go for his strike partner Gabriel Agbonlahor (3.50). The 26-year-old is having a superb finish to the campaign having struggled early on, and now has nine top-flight goals this term as Villa battle against the drop. The Villans did all but secure their Premier League survival on Saturday afternoon as they clinched a 2-1 away victory at Norwich, and it was a brace for Agbonlahor that did the trick for Paul Lambert’s men.
The pace and power of the academy graduate gave the Canaries’ defenders a torrid 90 minutes, and Agbonlahor is starting to show again why he was made an England international back in 2008. He now has scored three times in his last two league outings, while also notching six strikes in seven appearances since early-March, and looks to be relishing the responsibility of being one of Villa’s senior statesmen in a notably young squad. This weekend’s opponents Chelsea need points to seal their Champions League qualification, but could be hugely distracted by the prospect of their Europa League final in Amsterdam just four days after a trip to Villa Park.
The second name we’ll be keeping our eyes out for on the weekend’s ‘vidiprinter’ is West Brom striker Shane Long (3.10), who should have something to prove after being dropped to the bench on Tuesday evening for their trip to Manchester City. The Irish international had bagged in both of the two previous matches, when he was included in the starting XI, and then wasn’t introduced into the action at the Etihad Stadium until nine minutes from time, despite City leading since the first half.
The 26-year-old has bagged himself eight top-flight goals so far this season from 23 starts, making him second behind loanee Romelu Lukaku in the Baggies’ scoring charts. Steve Clarke’s side travel to Norwich on Sunday with little to play for, in contrast to the hosts who are only three points ahead off the relegation places with two matches to play. The Canaries have let in five goals over the last three matches at Carrow Road, and the defence could start to shake once the pressure of late-season survival battle kicks in.
Finally this weekend we’ll include a Hotshots favourite in the form of QPR’s frontman Loic Remy (2.50), who will probably be playing his last match for Rangers at Loftus Road on Sunday. With a summer departure looking inevitable after the Hoops’ relegation to the Championship, Remy shouldn’t be short of potential suitors, having netted five times in 11 starts since his January transfer from Marseille.
Rangers have actually failed to score in any of their last four matches, coinciding with the confirmation of their drop to the second tier, but with the pressure off they might give their home supporters a send-off before the summer of rebuilding. Newcastle are the visitors to Loftus Road this weekend, and they could well find themselves in the bottom three heading into the final round of matches should results conspire against them over the next few days. Having conceded 16 times over their last seven league fixtures, Alan Pardew has concerns about a porous backline, and with their carefree hosts playing for pride, they could be susceptible here.
pays 27.13
Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa (v Chelsea)
Shane Long, West Brom (v Norwich)
Loic Remy, QPR (v Newcastle)
Milesey
Nice to see someone agrees with me :)
FORMULA ONE
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We all know the drivers are the stars of the Formula One show, but the Spanish Grand Prix is where the mechanics take over.
The three week break from Bahrain to Barcelona gives the garages the time to take stock of the opening results of the season and work out what to do next. They pore over the data – telemetry to give it its proper name – and bring out all the upgrades. By the time the F1 circus sets up camp again the form from the first four races becomes only a vague guideline.
Certainly all the teams are talking up their technical work this week. McLaren say they will give Jenson Button a “significant” number of updates to the troubled MP4-28 car (and they need to after not finishing higher than fifth so far). Ferrari have revealed they are making changes to the bodywork, floor and wings. Lotus, the surprise package of the early races, are just as bullish about the “continuing development programme for the E21″. And Ross Brawn reckons long hours in the Mercedes factory has helped solve the lack of race pace compared to qualifying times so far.
In fact the only people who aren’t talking about their upgrades are Red Bull. The official quotes released by the team on behalf of Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are more of a travel guide than a race preview, talking about the weather, the hotels, the relaxed atmosphere of the Circuit de Catalunya, in fact about pretty much everything except what work has been done to improve their cars.
Now that can mean one of two things. It could mean they’ve given themselves a three-week holiday to pat themselves on the back for the way Vettel shot away from Nico Rosberg at the start in Bahrain and cruised to his second victory of the season. Or far more likely it means they think actions will speak louder than words when they put the cars on the track in Barcelona.
The early market for the Spanish Grand Prix race winner, however, seems more entranced by the technical talk. Vettel, despite winning two of four races, is a generous 3.35 for victory. I know that second favourite Fernando Alonso (4.0) has a superb record in his home event – he may have won only once in Barcelona be he has been on the podium in seven of the 11 times he’s raced there. But I’m intrigued by the secrecy around Red Bull’s development work and that makes me suspect it’s at least equal to, or probably better, than anybody else.
The other stats worth knowing for Barcelona are that it is a tough track to overtake on. Last year there were less than 30 overtakes in the race, less than one every two laps. And on 17 occasions the driver who started on pole has still been in the lead when the chequered flag was waved. That seems to suggest a flutter on Vettel/Vettel at 4.5 in the Qualifying/Winner Double market.
Milesey
( Betfair )
Pune Warriors India v Mumbai Indians
Saturday 11th May at 11:30 ITV4
Pune Warriors India
It is all over for Pune. Thursday’s crushing defeat by Kolkata ended any hope for them of making the end-of-season playoffs and now all that they have left to play for is avoiding last place. After losing to one of the other candidates for that role things look bleak indeed for the Warriors. One bright spot, if it can be called that, was the return to form of former captain Angelo Mathews, who struck 40 from just 28 balls in his first major contribution of the tournament. Other than that, only debutant Parvex Rasool – who bowled four economical overs – can look back with any great pleasure and it is going to take a lot for the Warriors to get themselves up for a game against one of the form teams at the moment.
Mumbai Indians
The rise of Mumbai has been one of the stories of the past fortnight. After making the early pace they stumbled badly, but the change of captain from Ricky Ponting to Rohit Sharma has worked like a charm, especially on Sharma himself, who has hit four half centuries since taking the reins. He’s more than made up for the relatively poor form of Sachin Tendulkar, scoring a total of 430 runs to the Little Master’s 234. In fact, Tendulkar has been so off the boil in this competition – his average is currently less than that of the likes of Harbhajan Singh and Mitchell Johnson – that you have to wonder how good Mumbai might be if he finds a streak of form in the coming week. Johnson and Harbhajan have been their most lethal bowlers, with 17 and 16 strikes respectively, whilst Lasith Malinga has weighed in with 10 as well as having one of the best economy rates in the competition.
Venue and Conditions
This is Pune’s last home game and the Subrata Roy Sahara Stadium has witnessed only one home victory, which came as long ago as April 11. Six of those defeats have come batting second, by an average margin of 31.67 runs, which is huge in T20 terms. The average first innings score is a shade over 147, but take out the time that Pune batted 20 overs for just 99 runs and it rises to over 155, making this one of the higher scoring IPL grounds. It is forecast to be a hot clear day, with temperatures approaching 40 degrees.
Match Odds
Mumbai are understandably strong favourites at 1.56 with Pune a full point behind at 2.56. Even at that price, Mumbai look the best bet of the day.
Top Pune Batsman
There’s really not a lot to choose from in this market. Marlon Samuels and Steve Smith have both gone home injured, whilst Yuvraj Singh can’t buy a run at the moment. Because of this it is best to stick with the man in form and back Mathews at odds of around 4.6.
Top Mumbai Batsman
Sharma is the obvious bet here, but he’ll be short priced because of that good recent form. Another favourite, Denesh Karthik, was an early leader in IPL run scoring this year, but he’s fallen away over the past couple of weeks. Why not, therefore, take advantage of Tendulkar’s recent lull and get behind him at a decent price of around 4.7.
Recommended Bet:
Back Mumbai Indians at 1.56 to win
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Kings XI Punjab vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Start Time: 15:30 ITV4
Kings XI Punjab
Nothing less than winning their last four matches will do if Kings XI are to make the play-offs which, it must be said, has never looked a realistic proposition. Take out a couple of highly unlikely run chases, led by the magnificent David Miller, and Punjab would be fighting to avoid finishing bottom of the table. Skipper Adam Gilchrist is liable to play again after hitting 42 against Rajasthan, but the Aussie legend remains a shadow of his former self and potentially an easy early wicket for Sunrisers’ pace-men. Responsibility for making a competitive total may, as usual, fall to Miller and Shaun Marsh.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Following RCB’s latest victory, Sunrisers must win to stay in control of their own destiny. In order to do so, their fearsome, frugal bowlers will need to bounce back from a heavy beating last time. Having previously kept all visitors to below 130, CSK helped themselves to 223 although to be fair, besides Ishant Sharma’s catastrophic spell, that total owed more to batting brilliance. Sunrisers aren’t the first and won’t be the last to suffer against Chennai and should revert to type against today’s easier opposition.
First Innings Runs
A first innings total of just 142 in Thursday’s match was considerably lower than we’ve become used to at Mohali but the ease with which Rajasthan chased it down suggested par remains much higher. Given the threat posed by Dale Steyn and Amit Mishra, I’m loathe to back Punjab’s unreliable line-up but if Hyderabad bat first, I’ll be backing 160 and over. In five matches here, the only visiting side Kings XI have managed to contain was the misfiring Kolkata Knight Riders, whose 153 was widely perceived to be a poor effort.
Match odds
That aforementioned KKR failure was also the only time the team batting second has lost here this season, so there’s a strong temptation to just recommend waiting for the toss. I do, however, strongly fancy Sunrisers irrespective of that. This match pitches arguably the most fragile batting line-up in this year’s IPL versus arguably the most potent bowling attack. Sunrisers have been under-estimated throughout the tournament and may not be finished yet.
Top Punjab batsman
Mohali may be known for run-fests but it also offers something for the quicks, so I can see Steyn and Sharma reducing Punjab’s top-order to rubble. In other such scenarios, Miller has saved them but as he can’t every time, it might pay to try a middle-order alternative. Azhar Mahmood fits the bill at around 11.0.
Top Hyderabad batsman
Shikhar Dhawan is very much the main man in this market, winning it three times in five matches since returning from injury and dominating their scorecards last season. At just 3.1 though, his chance is reflected by the odds so instead I’m looking towards the middle-order. Big-hitters often go berserk on this ground, so Thisara Perera could be in his element at odds of around 9.0.
Recommended bet
Back Sunrisers Hyderbad @ 2.1
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DOUBLE
Mumbai Indians @ 1.56
Sunrisers Hyderbad @ 2.1
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Milesey