Friday, 7.45pm (Live on Sky Sports 1)
BITTER rivals Crystal Palace and Brighton meet at Selhurst Park for the first leg of a potentially enthralling two-legged playoff semi-final.
Crystal Palace ended a barren run of nine games without victory on the last day of the league season by beating – and relegating – Peterborough with a 3-2 comeback victory.
It was a timely return to form for Ian Holloway's side but whether they can keep that going against old foes Brighton could be doubtful. Striker Glenn Murray remains the league's most prolific marksman after scoring a penalty against Posh to finish the regular season on 29 goals but that was his first in nine.
Murray is particularly influential to the Eagles hopes at home in the first leg as is the creativity of Manchester United-bound Wilfried Zaha. If he and Murray can replicate their form earlier in the campaign Palace will be dangerous, while their 52 goals at home was the most scored in the division by a cushion of six.
Brighton on the other hand are definitely in good form, with their 2-0 win over Wolves at the weekend (which saw the West Midlands outfit slip through the down into League One) their fourth win in five. Gus Poyet's side are unbeaten in nine outings, keeping five clean sheets in the process.
The Seagulls may struggle to hold out a fired-up Palace side away from home but should be backed to find the net themselves after hitting 10 in their last three and average of over 3.3 goals a game.
Young Kazenga LuaLua has come into goalscoring form at the perfect time of the season with three strikes in as many games and if he is picked from a strong forward line also possessing Leonardo Ulloa, Will Buckley and Ashley Barnes then he could add to his double against Wolves.
While these two sides both produced 3-0 home wins against one another during the league season a repeat result for Palace here looks unlikely given Brighton's form. However, a draw is worth backing at 3.2 with both teams to score a more conservative 1.83 bet.
Recommended Bets
Back Draw in Crystal Palace v Brighton at 3.2
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.83
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
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MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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UKRAINE: Premier League 5pm K/O
Zorya V Metalist Kharkiv
Over 2.5 match goals @ 4/5 bet365
Milesey
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deffos on this!
1 – 2
50 mins gone…………. job done
Milesey
GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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First on the list this weekend will keep us interested in the Premier League’s only action on Saturday when Chelsea make the trip to Aston Villa, but instead of usual suspect Christian Benteke, we’ll go for his strike partner Gabriel Agbonlahor (3.50). The 26-year-old is having a superb finish to the campaign having struggled early on, and now has nine top-flight goals this term as Villa battle against the drop. The Villans did all but secure their Premier League survival on Saturday afternoon as they clinched a 2-1 away victory at Norwich, and it was a brace for Agbonlahor that did the trick for Paul Lambert’s men.
The pace and power of the academy graduate gave the Canaries’ defenders a torrid 90 minutes, and Agbonlahor is starting to show again why he was made an England international back in 2008. He now has scored three times in his last two league outings, while also notching six strikes in seven appearances since early-March, and looks to be relishing the responsibility of being one of Villa’s senior statesmen in a notably young squad. This weekend’s opponents Chelsea need points to seal their Champions League qualification, but could be hugely distracted by the prospect of their Europa League final in Amsterdam just four days after a trip to Villa Park.
The second name we’ll be keeping our eyes out for on the weekend’s ‘vidiprinter’ is West Brom striker Shane Long (3.10), who should have something to prove after being dropped to the bench on Tuesday evening for their trip to Manchester City. The Irish international had bagged in both of the two previous matches, when he was included in the starting XI, and then wasn’t introduced into the action at the Etihad Stadium until nine minutes from time, despite City leading since the first half.
The 26-year-old has bagged himself eight top-flight goals so far this season from 23 starts, making him second behind loanee Romelu Lukaku in the Baggies’ scoring charts. Steve Clarke’s side travel to Norwich on Sunday with little to play for, in contrast to the hosts who are only three points ahead off the relegation places with two matches to play. The Canaries have let in five goals over the last three matches at Carrow Road, and the defence could start to shake once the pressure of late-season survival battle kicks in.
Finally this weekend we’ll include a Hotshots favourite in the form of QPR’s frontman Loic Remy (2.50), who will probably be playing his last match for Rangers at Loftus Road on Sunday. With a summer departure looking inevitable after the Hoops’ relegation to the Championship, Remy shouldn’t be short of potential suitors, having netted five times in 11 starts since his January transfer from Marseille.
Rangers have actually failed to score in any of their last four matches, coinciding with the confirmation of their drop to the second tier, but with the pressure off they might give their home supporters a send-off before the summer of rebuilding. Newcastle are the visitors to Loftus Road this weekend, and they could well find themselves in the bottom three heading into the final round of matches should results conspire against them over the next few days. Having conceded 16 times over their last seven league fixtures, Alan Pardew has concerns about a porous backline, and with their carefree hosts playing for pride, they could be susceptible here.
pays 27.13
Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa (v Chelsea)
Shane Long, West Brom (v Norwich)
Loic Remy, QPR (v Newcastle)
Milesey
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Saturday May 11, 12.45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Two
Chelsea’s wait for a guaranteed top four spot was extended on Wednesday as Tottenham hit back twice to earn a draw. While The Blues would have wanted to wrap it up before the weekend in order to field a fringe squad ahead of the Europa League final, the fact they didn’t just makes them a better bet to win this game.
Rafa Benitez has said that Frank Lampard will feature at Villa Park so it’s not like he has a lack of quality to choose from as he plans to freshen things up. Benitez confirmed that Eden Hazard should be okay despite limping off at Stamford Bridge and similar applies to Victor Moses.
The last time Chelsea played away from home was at Old Trafford and they pulled off a fantastic 1-0 victory. That was their ninth away win in the league this term and they are now unbeaten on their travels since the 2-1 defeat at Southampton at the end of March.
Aston Villa have ran into form at exactly the right time and five wins from their last eight have propelled them to 13th in the table. They have hit that magical 40 point mark and while they aren’t mathematically safe, it’s hard to see Wigan getting the victory they need at the Emirates.
Christian Benteke has been in superb form – 18 goals in his debut season, including a hat trick against Sunderland – but he hasn’t netted against a side in the top five yet and Chelsea have one of the best defences in the league.
I still have my concerns about the Villa defence as well – no clean sheet in 2013 – and they are vulnerable from set plays. John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic and Gary Cahill all get their fair share of headed goals and this is an area I can see them exploiting on Saturday.
Match Odds
Chelsea are 1.86 to get a vital away win and while the draw did tempt me at 3.85, memories of the 8-0 at Stamford Bridge came flooding back. Despite Villa still not being quite safe, The Blues certainly need the points more than they do and I think this experienced Chelsea side can do a ‘professional job’ on Paul Lambert’s young guns.
To Score
The games are running out for Frank Lampard to break Bobby Tambling’s goal-scoring record as he still needs two more with only three matches left before his contract runs out. Lampard is a hugely popular player amongst his team mates so I expect they will be teeing him up at every available opportunity, as well as letting him take most of the free kicks to go with his penalty duties. He was benched for the Spurs game and Rafa has said he will feature so it’s almost a certainty that he’ll start. He can be backed at around the 3.4 mark to score within the 90 minutes and that looks a steal to me.
Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea @ 1.86
Back Frank Lampard to score @ 3.4
Milesey
Lyon v PSG (3rd v 1st) Sun, 20:00 BST
By the time this game kicks-off PSG may have been already crowned champions. If Marseille lose at home to Toulouse on Saturday afternoon then PSG will be at least seven points clear with two games to play.
If Marseille draw then PSG are virtually assured of the title because of their vastly superior goal difference – and if Marseille win then PSG can seal their first league triumph in 19 years by beating Lyon in the big Sunday night game. My feeling is we’ll get an open and exciting game whether PSG need the points or not, not only because this is a clash between the division’s two highest-scoring sides, but also because there’s so much at stake for Lyon.
About six weeks ago Remi Garde’s side looked nailed-on for second place but an attack of the jitters has seen them fall four points behind Marseille (now in second place), which means Lyon are battling it out with Nice, St Etienne and Lille for the third and final Champions League spot. Lyon will be praying PSG already have the title wrapped up by the time the teams take the field in order to make their task easier – yet regardless of the situation Lyon’s best hope of winning will be to adopt an attacking approach because they are more convincing offensively than defensively. Second-choice goalkeeper Anthony Lopes will start for a third consecutive match because no. 1 Remy Vercoutre is injured, while Lyon’s centre-halves continue to perform uncertainly regardless of who Garde picks.
This is the smartest Over 2.5 Goals selection of the weekend.
Recommended Bet:Lyon v PSG Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
Milesey
mr fixit
can u do the double
draw and btts in the palace game
If you fancy this Gerry then why not back a 1-1 correct scoreline and 2-2. The odds will be better than any bookie, if there are any, offering such a bet. Usually the bookies dont offer odds on related markets. Good luck, and for the record can see a 1-1 here although the under 2.5 goals looks a strong runner.
Gerry, you can do that bet. William Hill and Ladbrokes, for two, now have coupons for result and btts. Didn’t see a Hills coupon in their shop today but Ladbrokes go 3-1 on btts and draw.
@3/1 for BTTS and draw Id rather cover 1-1 and 2-2 at around 11/2 and 14/1. I know in the unlikely event of a 3-3 you wouldn’t be covered but @66/1 cover can be taken.
I.E £2 @11/2 returns £13
£1 @14/1 returns £15
compared to £3 @ 3/1 returns £12
even with a 50p cover on 66-1 gives graeter returns as the bookies have sucked a bit of value out of such for the conveinience.
Carl D, he’ll do all that and it will end 0-0!
I know and to be fair id rather have the no goalscorer covered than the 2-2, think it could be a tight one, obviously an early goal from Brighton would change everything as Palace need a result at home to give them a chance.
Brighton to qualify for the final seems the best bet but going to wait as if palace can scrape a win then the odds on Brighton will offer some value.
Gerry, I don’t know what bookies do that bet but know William Hills do. Its currently 4.00 (or 3/1) for the draw and BTTS there.
bet of the day:
Warriors v Albirex Niigata (singapore league k.o 12.30pm)
8th vs 2nd
Albirex have won last 5 encounters
They are also in the better form of the two teams and have a good away record this season 4 wins in 6 with warriors winning only 2 of 4 home games.
All seems to point to the away win at 7/4
Btts – Norrköping v IF Elfsborg 6pm looks tasty!
Neither teams are goal shy at the mo..
Its where my lump sum is going before 7:45 KOs
No luck needed in this 1 :)
thanks mr fixit and rab
ill have a go at it
Villa v Chelsea 25/1 Eric Lichaj to be 1st carded. 5/1 anytime. Right back expected to play due to Lowton struggling fitness. Price @Bet victor.