ROBERT MILKINS won many new admirers when completing one of the biggest shocks in recent Crucible history against Neil Robertson. Far from it being a fluke, I fancy “The Milkman” to keep his run going on Sunday.
Before the start there was widespread agreement that this year's Betfair World Championship was the most open in living memory. Whether anyone can have foreseen the number of shocks we've seen over the last few days, however, is quite another matter.
Anyone who predicted and bet on neither the world No.1 or two, Mark Selby and Neil Robertson, making the second week, particularly deserves a medal.
The consequence, along with the defeat of short-priced jollies Stephen Maguire and Mark Allen, is an increasingly lopsided draw.
What seemed like the much tougher half now includes only one player who was trading at less than 100.0 pre-tournament. That man is Ding Junhui and he too is behind after the first session of his match against Mark King.
Whether Ding survives or not, everyone left in the bottom half will now fancy their chances of a career-changing run to the final.
If it turns out to be Milkins, who has been matched at the maximum odds of 1000.0, it will represent the biggest shock since at least the 1980s, if not the history of the championship.
In 18 years as a professional “The Milkman” has only reached one ranking semi-final but punters write him off at their peril. While it is easy to focus on Robertson's uncharacteristic misses during their thrilling match, Milkins deserves massive credit for the way he rose to the occasion and held his nerve under pressure.
On that evidence there is no reason why he shouldn't upset the odds against arguably the weakest seed in The Crucible line-up.
Ricky Walden also played well to thrash an out-of-sorts Michael Holt but the Chester man is no certainty here by any means. Indeed on their respective form throughout the season, one could argue he shouldn't even be favourite.
Whereas Milkins has reached five quarter-finals, Ricky has only made two since winning the first event way back in July.
Walden beat Milkins 5-3 en route to that Wuxi Classic title in what was strangely their first ever meeting.
I wouldn't read too much into that narrow victory, though, as Ricky was one of very few players showing his best form at that early stage of the season.
I suspect most of the matches in the bottom half will now be very nervy affairs with so much on the line and that could play to Milkins' advantage, who seemed to enjoy getting the crowd behind him in the Robertson match. For my money, this is basically a 50/50 call and that makes the outsider good value.
Recommended bet
Back Robert Milkins to beat Ricky Walden @ 2.52
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
IPL CRICKET – DOUBLE HEADER MONDAY
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Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
11:30 ITV4
Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan continue to impress and are looking ever likelier to make a surprise appearance in the play-offs. Saturday’s facile win over Hyderabad never looked in doubt, although it was slightly worrying to see their bowlers concede 144 after reducing the visitors to 29-6. Nevertheless a deep batting line-up, with Shane Watson and Brad Hodge in particularly scintillating form, should remain a formidable force on a home ground that offers some very high totals.
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Weekend results saw RCB usurped at the top of the points table by Chennai but Chris Gayle and co remain well on course for the play-offs. Inconsistency may yet prove their undoing though, as pefectly illustrated in their last two matches. When the batsmen deliver anything like the fireworks seen in that remarkable 263 total against Pune, Bangalore are unbeatable. When they stumble as we saw at Mumbai on Saturday, a lightweight bowling attack is unlikely to save the day, besides the possible exception of Vinay Kumar. Luckily, at least one of Gayle, Kohli or De Villiers usually deliver and there is plenty of back-up.
First Innings Runs
This match promises runs, runs and more runs. Both sides are much stronger with the bat and, in Watson and Gayle, both possess at least one player capable of record-breaking totals. I noted before their last match that Jaipur is one of the best IPL grounds for backing ‘overs’ and was therefore dismayed to see Sunrisers collapse to 29-6. The fact they still managed to reach 144 and Rajasthan knocked off the total with more than two overs to spare vindicates the strategy, so I’ll be backing 180 or more at around 3.7. Given what happened last week, don’t be afraid to back 200 plus at double-figure odds either.
Match odds
It is tempting to bill this match as Watson versus Gayle, but there are plenty of other world-class batsmen capable of stealing the headlines here. This may boil down to which set of bowlers can contain them better and recent evidence points towards Rajasthan in that regard, with James Faulkner particularly catching the eye last time. Royals have been under-estimated from the start of IPL and with home advantage, look a good value bet at 2.4.
Top Rajasthan batsman
I’m inclined to back one of the first three batsmen in anticipation of good scoring conditions. Watson is the obvious man but it’s never easy to follow up on a brilliant innings so instead lets go for his opening partner Ajinkya Rahane at 5.0.
Top Bangalore batsman
If Faulkner is as impressive as on Saturday, it won’t be easy for Gayle or Dilshan first up. Captain Virat Kohli might not be able to boast a tournament average of 90 like Gayle, but 42 is still pretty tasty. Lets take 4.3 that it’s his turn today.
Recommended bet
Back Rajasthan Royals @ 2.4
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Mumbai Indians v Kings XI Punjab
3:30 ITV4
Mumbai Indians
Many have tipped Mumbai to claim their first IPL crown but their shift in fortunes has only arrived after skipper Ricky Ponting dropped himself to the dugout. With Dwayne Smith taking Ponting’s place at the top of the order, the side is more balanced and with Smith in far better form, the Indians suddenly look like serious contenders.
Mumbai’s bowling also carries one of the biggest threats with Mitchell Johnson and Lasith Malinga forming an accurate spearhead but even when this opening pair went wicketless against RCB, the support bowlers took over to secure a comfortable 58 run win.
With two straight wins, it’s unlikely that Mumbai will make any changes for this match which leaves no place for Ponting and it also means that the Million Dollar Man – Glenn Maxwell – will be left warming the bench once again.
Kings XI Punjab
In contrast to Mumbai, very little was expected of Adam Gilchrist’s Kings XI side but they retain slim hopes of a play-off place after claiming four wins in their first eight games. One of the concerns for Kings has been Gilchrist’s own form but he stubbornly refuses to follow the lead of his former international skipper Ponting and continues to remain in the side.
With the prolific Shaun Marsh close to fitness, this could be the time for the captain to make a bold decision. With the potential of Marsh, David Hussey and David Miller in Kings’ line up, the batting will look far stronger and will have a better chance of challenging a superior Mumbai outfit.
Venue and Conditions
Mumbai’s knock of 194 on Saturday took the average first innings score at the Wankhede Stadium to an impressive 198 from three matches in IPL 6. In those three games, the home side have batted first and won by comfortable margins on each occasion so stand in skipper Rohit Sharma’s decision to take first knock will be no surprise if he wins the toss.
The forecast is for an even temperature around the low thirties centigrade and there’s not a hint of cloud cover expected on Monday.
Match Odds
Mumbai’s impressive recent performance make them obvious favourites here at 1.54 with Kings XI coming in at 2.62. It could all depend on Gilchrist and whether he stays in the side because he has been a liability at the top of the order.
The inclusion of Marsh, if fit, will provide a tougher batting unit but Mumbai should still be too strong for the visitors.
Mumbai Top Batsman
Two consecutive half centuries from Smith have made him favourite at around 4.0 while fellow opener Sachin Tendulkar has drifted slightly to 4.75 or better.
Kieron Pollard will continue to threaten in the later overs but a return to form on Saturday from Dinesh Karthik makes him my choice at around 5.0.
Punjab Top Batsman
Gilchrist continues to attract money at around 5.0 while Marsh remains favourite at 4.5 or better. However, it’s consistency that appeals to my stakes and you can’t get a more consistent performer than David Hussey who can be backed at around 5.0.
Recommended Bet
Back Mumbai to win at 1.54
Milesey
( betfair )
Back Rajasthan Royals @ 2.4
Back Mumbai to win at 1.54
Nice two winners in the IPL Today ;) ;)
Milesey
What do you think Murphy beating trump. Milesy. He’s had a poor season and I don’t really rate the guy on this seasons form, however, he seems confident and he’s putting in big breaks for fun
The results are crazy to be honest, i’ve given up betting on it, i only have the ROCKET WIN left for a nice £700 profit, the door is wide open for him, and doesn’t really have to be in any sort of form to get the better of these guys that are still in it.
Milesey
Ellis I have 2 disagree, I’d say Murphy has bn in decent form, he’s reached 3 ranking semis & 1 final this season, Trump has had 1 semi, 1 final & 1 win in the rankin events this season. I’m not a fan of either player, it will b an attacking game, neither player is great at safety. I’m still disappointed that most the big hitters r out.
Decent form that’s 4 good places (semis or finals) out of what 30 events ?
The two games have been covered before and the bets i have still running are :
Back Robert Milkins to beat Ricky Walden @ 2.52
Back Ali Carter for the +3.5 frame handicap @ 1.9
Milesey
Not that many players get 2 alot of finals & semis anymore via the players r pretty even, I was only quoting the major rankin events.