Sochaux v Bordeaux, Sunday, 4pm
THIS a game between hosts with everything to play for and visitors whose minds are likely to be elsewhere.
Sochaux are just one point and one place above the relegation zone so desperately need points to stay out of trouble. Their home record (W5-D4-L7) is disappointing but they're capable of raising their game in front of their own fans against big opponents, as 3-1 and 3-2 wins over Marseille and PSG respectively and 1-1 draws v Lille and Lyon show.
Bordeaux will already be dreaming of their French Cup semi-final at Troyes (May 7) after their 3-2 quarter-final win at Ligue 2 Lens on Wednesday evening. Sitting in mid-table, les Girondins cannot challenge for a European place through the league and are safe from relegation so their Ligue 1 season is effectively over.
Bordeaux coach Francis Gillot named a strong team for that game at Lens so the visitors may suffer from fatigue in the later stages of this match.
And the decision to use former West Ham and Real Madrid man Julien Faubert as a centre-half has made Bordeaux vulnerable in the past couple of weeks. As well as conceding twice at Lens they leaked two goals at home to Montpellier (4-2) last weekend.
Sochaux's extra motivation should ensure they avoid defeat so I'm willing to oppose Bordeaux, who are actually favourites (the visitors are 2.74, Sochaux 3.0). Over 2.5 Goals also looks too big in a game where Bordeaux's form and attitude suggests there will be chances at both ends.
Best Bet: Sochaux v Bordeaux Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.6
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
MILESEY’S TIPS
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Best Bet: Sochaux v Bordeaux Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.6
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Back Manchester City @ 2.34
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Back Liverpool @ 2.22
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Back Western Sydney Wanderers to win @ 2.5
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.62
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Feyenoord vs Vitesse
Back the draw @ 3.9
Back both teams to score @ 1.57
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Lay Inter to beat Parma @ 2.14
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Back Both Teams to Score in Juventus v Milan @ 1.88
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Back Over 3.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Torino @ 3.4
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Back Real Sociedad @ 2.48
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Back Atletico Madrid 0 & +0.5
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IPL CRICKET
Back Mumbai @ 1.66
Back Punjab to win @ 1.92
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SNOOKER
Back Peter Ebdon to beat Graeme Dott @ 2.7
Back Over 16.5 Total Frames @ 1.9
Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-9 @ 11.0
Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-8 @ 9.0
Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-7 @ 9.0
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London Marathon 2013
MENS – GEOFFREY MUTAI @ 5.80
STEPHEN BIWOTT @ 16.0
AYELE ABSHERO @ 16.0
WOMENS – TIKI GELANA @ 2.70
JOYCE CHEPKIRUI @ 30.0
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FORMULA ONE – BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
back Red Bull to be the winning car between 3.05 and 3.7
back Webber at 4.7 for a podium finish
ADD:
Back Paul di Resta to finish in the Top Six at bigger than 2.0
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MOTO GP – RACE START 8PM BBC THREE…….
The MotoGP circus’ arrival at the brand new Circuit of Americas in Texas hasn’t been without controversy but one look at the track and it’s hard to be disappointed the bikes have made it here.
Whilst the Valentino Rossi-Marc Marquez duel at round one stole most of the headlines, the story that got lost was Jorge Lorenzo’s complete domination of the race in Qatar. It was as clinical a victory as you’ll ever see but he’s a long way from having things go a similar fashion in Austin.
The circuit is new to all but five riders this weekend. Lorenzo, Rossi, Marquez, Dani Pedrosa and Stefan Bradl tested here in the winter so it’s not surprising to see them at the top of the sheets after two practice sessions.
Marquez led the tests here and the rookie finished Friday half a second clear of the field again. The times can be a little misleading at a new track as everyone finds their groove learning the circuit and then laying enough rubber down for the grip levels to be sufficient.
Still, the conditions are the same for everyone and with a level playing field, where no-one else has years of track knowledge over the young Spaniard, he’s shown his undeniable class. To watch him in practice here has been an awe inspiring thing. As everyone else has felt their way around he’s gone out and attacked the place at full tilt from the off. He’s a 2.42 favourite on the exchange to win at just his second attempt. If he does so he’ll be youngest MotoGP winner in history and you’d be a brave man or woman to bet against him.
The Hondas clearly have the edge here as Pedrosa and Bradl followed Marquez. The difference being whereas they had a few quick laps, Marquez had a whole bunch. Both Pedrosa and Bradl have had the same grip issues that Marquez has complained off but seem a lot more troubled by them. Pedrosa rather matter of factly described the day as ‘not very good’ despite posting the second quickest time.
You have to feel for Dani. He gets rid of Casey Stoner next door and up rocks Marquez. He’ll bridge the gap today one would imagine in time and the exchange which has him a 3.8 second favourite. But it really does feel like Marquez’s weekend.
Bradl on the other hand, at 4.5, is a great value bet for a career first podium in the Top 3 market. He was in the hunt in Qatar before crashing and he did well here in testing as well. He’ll have to fight off the two Yamahas of Lorenzo and Rossi though which will be no mean feat.
On paper, the flowing nature of much of this circuit looks like one that should suit the Yamahas but they’ve not been able to get their heads around it as yet. Rossi seems more happy than Lorenzo, presumably because anything is better to him than being anywhere on a Ducati, but podium anything odds-against is far too short for mine and the 10.0 for the win much more reflective of where he’s at.
Lorenzo, clearly not happy on Friday, will pick away at it and will be there come Sunday as he always is. If anyone is to take it to the Repsol Hondas it will be Lorenzo and I think his 4.0 for a win is a little too long. If Marquez crumbles under the pressure in the race, Lorenzo should be the one applying it and be ready to pick up the pieces.
The Circuit of the Americas is a gorgeous looking track and looks to have a number of great overtaking opportunities. If Marquez doesn’t ‘do a Lorenzo’ on Sunday night we should be in for a cracker.
Recommended Bet
*** Back Marc Marquez to win the Texas MotoGP @ 2.42 ***
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Milesey
MILESEY’S TIPS
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Best Bet: Sochaux v Bordeaux Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.6
***********************************
Back Manchester City @ 2.34
***********************************
Back Liverpool @ 2.22
***********************************
Back Western Sydney Wanderers to win @ 2.5
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.62
***********************************
Feyenoord vs Vitesse
Back the draw @ 3.9
Back both teams to score @ 1.57
***********************************
Lay Inter to beat Parma @ 2.14
***********************************
Back Both Teams to Score in Juventus v Milan @ 1.88
***********************************
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Torino @ 3.4
***********************************
Back Real Sociedad @ 2.48
***********************************
Back Atletico Madrid 0 & +0.5
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IPL CRICKET
Back Mumbai @ 1.66
Back Punjab to win @ 1.92
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London Marathon 2013
MENS – GEOFFREY MUTAI @ 5.80
STEPHEN BIWOTT @ 16.0
AYELE ABSHERO @ 16.0
WOMENS – TIKI GELANA @ 2.70
JOYCE CHEPKIRUI @ 30.0
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FORMULA ONE – BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
back Red Bull to be the winning car between 3.05 and 3.7
back Webber at 4.7 for a podium finish
ADD:
Back Paul di Resta to finish in the Top Six at bigger than 2.0
****************************************************
MOTO GP – RACE START 8PM BBC THREE…….
Back Marc Marquez to win the Texas MotoGP @ 2.42
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SNOOKER
My staking plan is :
£100 on Ronnie @ 7.2 ** into round 2 **
£100 on Robertson @ 7.6
£40 on Allen @ 16.0
£10 on Gould @ 130.0 ** LOSING 5-4 TO Murphy **
Back Michael Holt @ 2.6 (vs Walden) ** LOSING 8-1 **
Back Michael White @ 3.1 (vs Williams) ** WINNING 5-4 **
Back Peter Ebdon to beat Graeme Dott @ 2.7
Back Over 16.5 Total Frames @ 1.9
Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-9 @ 11.0
Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-8 @ 9.0
Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-7 @ 9.0
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GOLF
—-
AFTER ROUND 3 – LEADER -11
THE RBC HERITAGE
Rory Sabbatini @ 250.0 -3
Scott Brown @ 280.0 -3
Ben Crane @ 80.0 -3
Brian Gay @ 75.0 -1
Zach Johnson @ 50.0 -1
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HORSE RACING
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DOUBLE
3:50 NEWCASTLE
IMJOEKING 7/4 Bet365
3:40 WINCANTON
LOWER HOPE DANDY 7/4 Bet365
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PATENT / TRIXIE
5.50 NEWCASTLE
IZZINI
2:00 STRATFORD
DARLEY SUN
5:10 WINCANTON
THE BIG FREEZE 3/1 Bet365
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NAP**NAP**NAP**
4:00 STRATFORD
SHIRE DE GRUGY
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OUTSIDER OF THE DAY
3:10 WINCANTON
SWIFT LORD 12/1 Bet365
Milesey
Milesey,,Do you have a ‘single’ of the day, just to ‘win’
Best Bet: Sochaux v Bordeaux Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.6 ** WINNER **
Milesey
FORMULA ONE – BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
back Red Bull to be the winning car between 3.05 and 3.7 ** VETTEL WINS **
Back Paul di Resta to finish in the Top Six at bigger than 2.0 ** 4TH WINNER **
Milesey
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Torino @ 3.4 ** WINNER ** 3-1 H/T **
Milesey
LAY OF THE DAY – SUNDAY
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Juventus are within touching distance of retaining the Scudetto but Mr M believes they will suffer a mini setback at the hands of AC Milan this evening in a match that can be seen live on ESPN at 19:45.
Antonio Conte’s side are 11 points clear at the top of Serie A with just 18 points left to play for. The title is all but sewn up but Conte hasn’t let his men ease off the gas in recent weeks – five league wins in a row – although they did suffer a pair of disappointing losses to Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
The last time Juve failed to win in Turin in domestic action was on January 26th when they were held to a 1-1 draw by Genoa. The Old Lady did lose 2-0 at home to Bayern though and they’ve been defeated by Inter and Sampdoria this term. Scoring goals is still a slight issue as their top scorer only has nine goals to his name, but in fairness they do spread them around the team as five players have netted at least seven.
AC Milan are in third place, four points adrift of Napoli in second but four points clear of Fiorentina in fourth. They did make a slow start to their campaign as they cleared out some of their older players and revamped their team, but they are unbeaten in 2013 and ran Barcelona incredibly close in the Champions League.
Mario Balotelli is suspended for this match which is a blow as he’s scored seven in eight since his move from Manchester City, but three of those were penalties and fellow strikers Giampaolo Pazzini and Stephen El Shaarawy have 29 league goals between them this term.
Clearly Juventus are a fine team and have an excellent chance of winning. AC Milan are unbeaten in 2013 though and they are seven undefeated away from the San Siro. A point will do for the defending champions and with them trading at around the 1.77 mark for the win, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Juventus v AC Milan @ 1.77
Milesey
( betfair )
IPL CRICKET
Back Punjab to win @ 1.92 ** WIN **
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MOTO GP – RACE START 8PM BBC THREE…….
Back Marc Marquez to win the Texas MotoGP @ 2.42
** WINNER ** WINNER ** WINNER ** WINNER **
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Milesey